Schedule Analysis Page is Back

Last season we introduced our schedule analysis page. On this page we look at teams past and future opponents both by win / loss records as well as PossessionPoints RPM.

A PossessionPoints.com View of Week one 2011 Season

Week 1 produced a good start for the matchup page especially Against The Spread (ATS). For the week, we were 9-7 straight up, but we were actually better in ATS going 10-6. Our Bronze selections were 2-0 ATS and our Delaware 3-Pick was 2-1. The Season Preview picks like the Matchup picks went 9-7. The other thing to watch this season, our top 8 confidence picks were 5-3. We will be tracking and reporting on all these throughout the season.

2011 Season Preview: Cleveland Browns

AFC North – Browns
Summary:

The Browns are playing in one of the tougher conferences in the league just by virtue of having to play the Steelers and the Ravens twice. Last year they weren’t a very good PossessionPoints team with an offense that ranked 26th and a defense that ranked 23rd. Last year we had real questions about the Browns QB, this year we are pretty confident Colt McCoy is going to be the number 1 QB. Veteran Seneca Wallace looks to be the backup. McCoy is a wildcard in our view, he shows great potential but the question is will he get to top form this season. We expect some improvement but aren’t going to go wild. We are actually looking for a little bigger improvement on defense.  

2011 Season Preview: Cincinnati Bengals

AFC North – Bengals
Summary:

Last year the Bengals were an average PossessionPoints team with an offense that ranked 16th and a defense that ranked 14th. Despite these average to above average numbers the Bengals managed just a 4-12 record. We would classify this as an underperformance and we would expect some bounce back in record even if there were to be no improvement in performance. That is a good thing because with the loss of veteran quarterback Carson Palmer and wide receivers Chad Ochocinco and T.O. we are actually lowering their offensive numbers by 10%. We left their defensive performance unchanged.

2011 Season Preview: Baltimore Ravens

AFC North – Ravens
Summary:

The Ravens showed they are going to be a team to contend with every year last year. After falling back to Earth two years ago with a 9-7 playoff making record they once again had an outstanding 12-4 record. They were a good but not outstanding PossessionPoints team last season ranking 13th in offense and 10th in defense. In the past the Ravens running attack had depth, this season it appears that they will be heavily relying on Ray Rice. Yes, they picked up Ricky Williams to compliment Rice but as good as he is he is at 34 he is really getting up there in age for an NFL running back. They picked up Lee Evans at wide receiver and drafted two wide receivers so they may be stronger there but they lost Todd Heap at tight end and his contributions will be difficult to replace.  So, we lowered their offense by 5% and left their defensive performance unchanged. 

2011 Season Preview: Pittsburgh Steelers

AFC North – Steelers
Summary:

Last season we worried about the impact the suspension of Big Ben Roethlisberger might have on the team. This season we wonder if the marriage of Roethlisberger might settle the quarterback such that he once again has a super season.  Free agency and the draft did not seem to bolster the offense. So we took 5% off their offensive performance from 2010. They did draft Cameron Heyward a top defensive end with their first pick even though they are coming off a 2010 defensive performance that ranked 3rd in the league we upped their defensive performance by 5%, that would move them to 2nd this season. 

2011 Season Preview: Buffalo Bills

AFC East – Bills
 
Summary:

The Bills had a yet another season to forget last year. We projected them to have a 4-12 season and that is exactly what they had. The Bills didn’t improve much offense at all and just like 2009 they finished 2010  with the 28th ranked offense as measured by the PossessionPoints stat. They averaged just 70 Offensive PossessionPoints (PosPts) per game in 2010 which was dead on the 10% positive adjustment we gave them in last year’s issue. That level is still well below the 83 PosPts they averaged in 2008. (For those less familiar with PosPts, in a game we turn a team’s offensive effort “green” when they go over 100 PosPts. At the 100 PosPts level a team wins 75% of the time). While the Bills’ offense moved in the right direction last season it still has a long way to go. 

2011 Season Preview: Miami Dolphins

AFC East – Dolphins

Summary:

Last year we projected the Dolphins would have good season but still miss the playoffs. We were half right, they missed the playoffs but their 2010 season can be best classified as average as went 7-9 for the second year in a row. This year they have a slightly tougher than average schedule with the 12th toughest schedule by the PossessionPoints (10th toughest by the classic method). Their 2010 PossessionPoints performances had them with the 20th ranked offense and 13th best defense. Getting their offense back on track and continuing to improve their defense will be key to 2011. We went out on a limb some and adjusted their offense up 10% and their defense 5%. 

2011 Season Preview: NY Jets

Continuing with the 32 team by team preview and projections.


AFC East – Jets
Summary:

Last year, we thought “the progression of Mark Sanchez and the Jets offense” would improve so we adjusted their offense up and projected a 12-4 record. The second year of Sanchez was an improvement but not quite as much as we thought so they got to 11-5. Not a bad projection overall. There is still room for Sanchez and the Jets offense to improve further and we are forecasting just that.  In 2010 the Sanchez-led offense ranked 17th in the league, and the defense ranked 8th in the league as measured by the PossessionPoints stat. Their quest for the Super Bowl fell short for the second year in a row, and Rex Ryan made it very clear he was not happy with just playing in January, he was looking to get to that big game in February.

Patriots Poised To Take AFC East Title

Each preseason PossessionPoints forecasts how each team will do in the upcoming season based on our stat from the prior season and adjustments we make to it for all teams. This year since we converted PossessionPoints.com to a free site we are making the preview available team by team on this site. In each writeup we look at our forecast and then an optimistic and pessimistic scenario. 

Patriots

Summary:

Another year, another season we think the Patriots are the team to beat in the AFC East. Tom Brady’s knee injury is now becoming a distant memory and there is no need to question his durability.  Could the Patriots make another run at an unbeaten season? While unlikely, is not impossible. We have pointed out in the past that the Patriots’ coaching staff is a real strength, and they have a true talent when it comes to rebuilding the roster and assistant coaching staff to maintain a high level of play. There never seems to be a question about chemistry or how player X will blend with this team. But this year may be a real test of that with the addition of Chad Ochocinco and Albert Haynesworth. This season, on the adjustment front, we went very conservative with the Patriots. The defense matured nicely last season and if Haynesworth is even close to the player he was with the Titans the defense will definitely improve. So we adjusted the offense and the defense up by 5%. With these adjustments for the Patriots, the computer produced a projected 14-2 record and well positioned to make another run at the Super Bowl. 

Pre-Season Begins Tonight

NFL Preseason Kicks Off Tonight

We had our doubts as the labor negotiations dragged out this summer, but the NFL Preseason starts tonight on schedule. The only casualty was the Hall Of Fame game.

PossessionPoints.com is ready for the start with a big announcement, the site has been converted to a "free" site this season. You still need a login ID to get access to all of the game by game data but you can register and get that login for free. Giving us your e-mail is part of that sign-up, but you will only get e-mail from us as we don't give away or sell our e-mail lists. And you won't even get that much e-mail from PossessionPoints. Twice per week is our standard amount--once to send you our newsletter and the other to tell you when our Match-up page has been posted.