When the NFL schedule came out last spring, a quick glance at the bye weeks showed that two of the teams off in Week Seven were the Titans and Broncos.
If we told you in the summer that one of these two teams would be 6-0 and the other would be 0-6, and then asked you to tell us who would have the winning record, we are confident that you and any other football fan would have replied, “That’s easy—the Titans will be 6-0 and the Broncos will be 0-6.”
Wednesday, November 25, 2009
Sunday, November 15, 2009
AFC North: Toughest Division in the NFL?
Get a group of football fans together talking about their favorite teams, comparing records and schedules, and sooner or later, someone will throw out a phrase along the lines of “Well, they play in a tougher division.”
We, at PossessionPoints.com , confess we love this discussion. We write about it as often as we can. We address this issue in the preseason , regular season, postseason, and offseason.
We, at PossessionPoints.com , confess we love this discussion. We write about it as often as we can. We address this issue in the preseason , regular season, postseason, and offseason.
Friday, October 16, 2009
NFL 2009 Win – Loss Records: A Look At The Schedule Excuse
It does not seem to matter if your team has a good record or a bad record. Why? Because, fans, sportscasters and writers will point to your team’s schedule and tell you if their record is either the beneficiary of an easy schedule or the victim of a difficult one.
We are not going to belabor the point, but as of now we would say that there are only seven teams in the league who based on their schedule should be looking in the mirror and feeling especially proud or upset with themselves.
We have heard the schedule excuse relative to the Vikings, Giants and Redskins. Well, in the Redskins’ case, we hear how they have been responsible for the first win for three teams, and they have a 2-3 record to prove it. In fact, it is pointed out by various sources that they have not faced a team that has a win on their record at the time the Redskins played them.
Since PossessionPoints.com is a “data analysis” company, we decided to look at all 32 teams and the win-loss records of their opposition to date to see where everyone’s record and performance truly stacks up in relation to their schedule.
The results were interesting. Fifteen teams have played opposition whose current combined record is over .500. Of those teams, only three of them - the Patriots, Bengals and 49ers - have a winning record. None of the five currently unbeaten teams have played teams whose combined record is over .500.
That leaves seventeen teams to have played opposition whose current combined record is under .500. Of those teams, only four of them - the Jaguars, Bills, Texans and Redskins - have a losing record. None of the four currently winless teams have played a teams with a combined record below .500.
Does it sound too obvious to state that if you have played tough teams you have a tough time winning while if you play lesser teams you have a tough time losing?
The table below shows all the teams sorted by their past opponents’ winning percentage. The Lions and Browns have faced pretty tough competition, but at least the Browns’ future opponents have a sub .500 record. The Patriots, Bengals and 49ers, who we highlighted before, also face future competition with a sub .500 record. On the flip side, the going gets tough for the Giants, Eagles, Vikings, Ravens and Bears (unfortunately it’s no picnic for the Redskins either) as they all face future competition whose combined record is well above .500.
We are not going to belabor the point, but as of now we would say that there are only seven teams in the league who based on their schedule should be looking in the mirror and feeling especially proud or upset with themselves.
We have heard the schedule excuse relative to the Vikings, Giants and Redskins. Well, in the Redskins’ case, we hear how they have been responsible for the first win for three teams, and they have a 2-3 record to prove it. In fact, it is pointed out by various sources that they have not faced a team that has a win on their record at the time the Redskins played them.
Since PossessionPoints.com is a “data analysis” company, we decided to look at all 32 teams and the win-loss records of their opposition to date to see where everyone’s record and performance truly stacks up in relation to their schedule.
The results were interesting. Fifteen teams have played opposition whose current combined record is over .500. Of those teams, only three of them - the Patriots, Bengals and 49ers - have a winning record. None of the five currently unbeaten teams have played teams whose combined record is over .500.
That leaves seventeen teams to have played opposition whose current combined record is under .500. Of those teams, only four of them - the Jaguars, Bills, Texans and Redskins - have a losing record. None of the four currently winless teams have played a teams with a combined record below .500.
Does it sound too obvious to state that if you have played tough teams you have a tough time winning while if you play lesser teams you have a tough time losing?
The table below shows all the teams sorted by their past opponents’ winning percentage. The Lions and Browns have faced pretty tough competition, but at least the Browns’ future opponents have a sub .500 record. The Patriots, Bengals and 49ers, who we highlighted before, also face future competition with a sub .500 record. On the flip side, the going gets tough for the Giants, Eagles, Vikings, Ravens and Bears (unfortunately it’s no picnic for the Redskins either) as they all face future competition whose combined record is well above .500.
Saturday, October 10, 2009
Saints Shine in FIrst Quarter of 2009 NFL
The Saints are one of the teams to start this year with a record of 4-0. At PossessionPoints.com our expectations were high for the Saints this season as we expected that they would win their division and play the Giants in the NFC championship. Nothing we have seen in the first quarter of this year makes us rethink our projection. If we were to rethink anything, it might be the expectation of the Giants as the NFC champions.
The Saints currently have the best Relative Performance Measure in the league with an RPM of 68.6. (For more details on the PossessionPoints.com RPM see the Bleacher Report article “Week 2 Performance Rankings” where we do a more through explanation of this measure).
The Saints have achieved their 4-0 record while facing teams with a combined record of 7 wins and 8 losses or a .467 winning percentage. The four teams that they have played have a combined RPM of -20. By either measure, their first-quarter schedule ranked 20th in the league.
Their schedule going forward does not look much tougher. Their future opponents have a combined record of 16 wins and 28 losses for a winning percentage of .364 which is the lowest winning percentage of any team’s future opponents’ schedule. By the RPM measure, their future opponents have a combined -96 which ranks 27th in the league.
By contrast, the Giants have played teams with a combined record of 4 wins and 12 losses (a 0.250 winning percentage) and an RPM of -103. The negative103 RPM was the easiest 4-game combination in the league. By combined record, the .250 winning percentage also ranked as the easiest in the league.
Going forward, the Giants’ future opponents have a combined 26 win - 17 loss record (0.605 winning percentage) and a combined RPM of -2. From a winning percentage point of view, that is the second toughest schedule while from an RPM point of view it is the 14th toughest.
Our outlook looks bright for the Saints. Their schedule does not look tough, and their performance has been outstanding. If they keep it up, we could easily see them playing the Giants, who are number two on our RPM chart with an RPM of 56, in the NFC championship game which was our original forecast for them.
The full Week 4 Performance Ranking chart is below:
The Saints currently have the best Relative Performance Measure in the league with an RPM of 68.6. (For more details on the PossessionPoints.com RPM see the Bleacher Report article “Week 2 Performance Rankings” where we do a more through explanation of this measure).
The Saints have achieved their 4-0 record while facing teams with a combined record of 7 wins and 8 losses or a .467 winning percentage. The four teams that they have played have a combined RPM of -20. By either measure, their first-quarter schedule ranked 20th in the league.
Their schedule going forward does not look much tougher. Their future opponents have a combined record of 16 wins and 28 losses for a winning percentage of .364 which is the lowest winning percentage of any team’s future opponents’ schedule. By the RPM measure, their future opponents have a combined -96 which ranks 27th in the league.
By contrast, the Giants have played teams with a combined record of 4 wins and 12 losses (a 0.250 winning percentage) and an RPM of -103. The negative103 RPM was the easiest 4-game combination in the league. By combined record, the .250 winning percentage also ranked as the easiest in the league.
Going forward, the Giants’ future opponents have a combined 26 win - 17 loss record (0.605 winning percentage) and a combined RPM of -2. From a winning percentage point of view, that is the second toughest schedule while from an RPM point of view it is the 14th toughest.
Our outlook looks bright for the Saints. Their schedule does not look tough, and their performance has been outstanding. If they keep it up, we could easily see them playing the Giants, who are number two on our RPM chart with an RPM of 56, in the NFC championship game which was our original forecast for them.
The full Week 4 Performance Ranking chart is below:
Thursday, September 24, 2009
NFL Week Two Performance Rankings
In our articles, we often refer to our “Relative Performance Measure” or (RPM) which is the statistic we use to make up our performance rankings. Unfortunately, it is impossible to explain our RPM fully in each article, but we do get questions from readers such as “What is your RPM?” and “Why is it significant?”
Since it is early in the season, and there are only two games to go on with our RPM, we thought we’d take the time here to explain what they are, and why they are significant.
What are the PossessionPoints.com RPM numbers?
This may take some time to explain, so be patient and stay with us. You won’t be sorry.
The basic PossessionPoints.com stat is an offensive measure. It is a blended stat (which means it is generated by a mathematical formula from other stats and game information). As the name implies, “time of possession of a scoring drive” and “points scored on a drive” are key components. The quarter in which the points are scored also come into play.
As an offensive measure, we have key cutoffs at 60 and 100 (From analyzing numbers, we determined that 60 and 100 were significant levels where winning percentages changed.) This is where our color codes come in.
We turn an offense “yellow” at 60 and “green” at 100. From the time that we have been keeping this stat from the 2006 season, we have noticed that a team that gets to the “green” level of offensive performance, wins better than 75 percent of the time.
The defense of a team is measured by how many PossessionPoints it allows the opponent’s offense to total. The same key cutoffs apply, but this time we start a defense “green” and turn it “yellow” at 60 and “red” at 100. A team, that keeps its opponent below 60 (Green), wins better than 80 percent of the time.
We have talked about offense and defense but haven’t mentioned RPM yet. To get a “team” measure in a game, we simply subtract their defensive PossessionPoints performance from their offensive performance. This net number can be positive or negative and has its own significance.
You’ll note the 40-point yellow range in the offensive and defensive numbers. That range has significance here also. We color the net “green” at positive 40 and “red” at negative 40. Here a green net equates to better than 90 percent winning. This net number is a single game “Performance Measure.”
Our season “Relative Performance Measure” is the average that a team has performed in all of the games they have played.
Why is the RPM significant?
This is an interesting question because different people find significance in different numbers so we will look at a couple of things. As you know, 12 teams make the playoffs each year. Based on end-of-regular-season RPM’s, eight of the top 12 RPM teams in 2006 and 2008 made the playoffs, and 10 of the top 12 in 2007 made the playoffs.
In 2006 and 2007, five of the seven teams with the lowest RPMs to make the playoffs lost their first game, and in 2008 six out of seven lost their first game. In 2008, three of the top four were in the Conference championship games, and in 2006 and 2007 it was two out of four.
Another way to look at significance is to look at a team that this season is defying the PossessionPoints stat, and is 2-0 despite a very red -66 RPM. That team is the Colts.
In 2006, the Colts went 12-4 and won the Super Bowl. They finished the regular season with an RPM of 17 which was tenth in the league. They owe it all to their offense who was first with an average 134 PossessionPoints per game. Their defense was dead last with an average of 116 PossessionPoints allowed. But they won it all.
However, if you remember, their defense came alive in the playoffs and performed to an average of just 53 PossessionPoints allowed in the Playoffs. So, there was no surprise that this new-found defensive strength coupled with their famed offense, proved to make the Colts unstoppable that year in the Playoffs.
In 2007, the Colts as a team did better in the regular season with an RPM of 29, but their offensive performance fell a little to 124 while their defense improved to 94. They went 13-3 and got a first-round playoff bye. They met the 11-5 Chargers who had the No. 2 defense that year and an RPM not far behind the Colts at 23. The Chargers’ prevailed 28-24, and the Colts were one and done in the Playoffs.
In 2008, the Colts were again 12-4 like 2006, but this time they were one of the few teams to ever make the playoffs with a negative RPM. Last season, they had a -6 RPM and had to travel to San Diego to play the Chargers in the first-round game.
The Chargers’ regular season RPM was 29. It was by no means a mismatch, but the Chargers did prevail 23-17, and the Colts were once again one and done.
We find significance in winning football games, but can a team win without following the PossessionPoints formula? Sure, it seems the Colts are trying harder than ever to prove it in 2009, but we wouldn’t count on it. More likely the Colts will take a deep breath, realize they are fortunate to be 2-0 and make fixes that will result in them performing better by our measure.
On to the Week Two Rankings:
As the season goes on and there are more weeks of data, we would stack our stat-generated “performance rankings” against any opinion-based “power rankings.” Early in the season with only two games done, many position changes for the teams are still ahead of us.
Does it surprise anyone that the Jets are on the top of the performance rankings after two weeks? The probability is that their numbers cannot stay this strong. An RPM of 100 is way more than the Patriots’ 2007 RPM of 83.
That RPM was off the charts for a full season. By comparison, last year the Steelers after the Super Bowl had the top RPM, but it was only 37. So, we have to believe the Jets will come back to the pack a bit, and the question we have to ask is that as they get reeled back in will they continue to win?
Behind the Jets are the Saints, while the Jets have been defense led (allowing only 23 PossessionPoints per game) the Saints as you probably have guessed have been offense led posting an average of 163 PossessionPoints per week.
It’s a long season, but those two teams are off to a great start. We could talk a lot more about the chart below, but we spent a great deal of space trying to answer some questions we have gotten in the past.
Since it is early in the season, and there are only two games to go on with our RPM, we thought we’d take the time here to explain what they are, and why they are significant.
What are the PossessionPoints.com RPM numbers?
This may take some time to explain, so be patient and stay with us. You won’t be sorry.
The basic PossessionPoints.com stat is an offensive measure. It is a blended stat (which means it is generated by a mathematical formula from other stats and game information). As the name implies, “time of possession of a scoring drive” and “points scored on a drive” are key components. The quarter in which the points are scored also come into play.
As an offensive measure, we have key cutoffs at 60 and 100 (From analyzing numbers, we determined that 60 and 100 were significant levels where winning percentages changed.) This is where our color codes come in.
We turn an offense “yellow” at 60 and “green” at 100. From the time that we have been keeping this stat from the 2006 season, we have noticed that a team that gets to the “green” level of offensive performance, wins better than 75 percent of the time.
The defense of a team is measured by how many PossessionPoints it allows the opponent’s offense to total. The same key cutoffs apply, but this time we start a defense “green” and turn it “yellow” at 60 and “red” at 100. A team, that keeps its opponent below 60 (Green), wins better than 80 percent of the time.
We have talked about offense and defense but haven’t mentioned RPM yet. To get a “team” measure in a game, we simply subtract their defensive PossessionPoints performance from their offensive performance. This net number can be positive or negative and has its own significance.
You’ll note the 40-point yellow range in the offensive and defensive numbers. That range has significance here also. We color the net “green” at positive 40 and “red” at negative 40. Here a green net equates to better than 90 percent winning. This net number is a single game “Performance Measure.”
Our season “Relative Performance Measure” is the average that a team has performed in all of the games they have played.
Why is the RPM significant?
This is an interesting question because different people find significance in different numbers so we will look at a couple of things. As you know, 12 teams make the playoffs each year. Based on end-of-regular-season RPM’s, eight of the top 12 RPM teams in 2006 and 2008 made the playoffs, and 10 of the top 12 in 2007 made the playoffs.
In 2006 and 2007, five of the seven teams with the lowest RPMs to make the playoffs lost their first game, and in 2008 six out of seven lost their first game. In 2008, three of the top four were in the Conference championship games, and in 2006 and 2007 it was two out of four.
Another way to look at significance is to look at a team that this season is defying the PossessionPoints stat, and is 2-0 despite a very red -66 RPM. That team is the Colts.
In 2006, the Colts went 12-4 and won the Super Bowl. They finished the regular season with an RPM of 17 which was tenth in the league. They owe it all to their offense who was first with an average 134 PossessionPoints per game. Their defense was dead last with an average of 116 PossessionPoints allowed. But they won it all.
However, if you remember, their defense came alive in the playoffs and performed to an average of just 53 PossessionPoints allowed in the Playoffs. So, there was no surprise that this new-found defensive strength coupled with their famed offense, proved to make the Colts unstoppable that year in the Playoffs.
In 2007, the Colts as a team did better in the regular season with an RPM of 29, but their offensive performance fell a little to 124 while their defense improved to 94. They went 13-3 and got a first-round playoff bye. They met the 11-5 Chargers who had the No. 2 defense that year and an RPM not far behind the Colts at 23. The Chargers’ prevailed 28-24, and the Colts were one and done in the Playoffs.
In 2008, the Colts were again 12-4 like 2006, but this time they were one of the few teams to ever make the playoffs with a negative RPM. Last season, they had a -6 RPM and had to travel to San Diego to play the Chargers in the first-round game.
The Chargers’ regular season RPM was 29. It was by no means a mismatch, but the Chargers did prevail 23-17, and the Colts were once again one and done.
We find significance in winning football games, but can a team win without following the PossessionPoints formula? Sure, it seems the Colts are trying harder than ever to prove it in 2009, but we wouldn’t count on it. More likely the Colts will take a deep breath, realize they are fortunate to be 2-0 and make fixes that will result in them performing better by our measure.
On to the Week Two Rankings:
As the season goes on and there are more weeks of data, we would stack our stat-generated “performance rankings” against any opinion-based “power rankings.” Early in the season with only two games done, many position changes for the teams are still ahead of us.
Does it surprise anyone that the Jets are on the top of the performance rankings after two weeks? The probability is that their numbers cannot stay this strong. An RPM of 100 is way more than the Patriots’ 2007 RPM of 83.
That RPM was off the charts for a full season. By comparison, last year the Steelers after the Super Bowl had the top RPM, but it was only 37. So, we have to believe the Jets will come back to the pack a bit, and the question we have to ask is that as they get reeled back in will they continue to win?
Behind the Jets are the Saints, while the Jets have been defense led (allowing only 23 PossessionPoints per game) the Saints as you probably have guessed have been offense led posting an average of 163 PossessionPoints per week.
It’s a long season, but those two teams are off to a great start. We could talk a lot more about the chart below, but we spent a great deal of space trying to answer some questions we have gotten in the past.
Thursday, September 3, 2009
2009 NFL Preseason Performance Rankings
While we like to ignore most preseason records, we do take a look to see how teams measure up in our “relative performance measure” (RPM). However, similar to preseason records, YOU CAN’T READ TOO MUCH INTO THESE NUMBERS. The reason we do present them is to highlight any warning signs that teams may be exhibiting.
While these RPMs are interesting to look at and speculate about, you have to remember two things: Only three preseason games are used in generating these numbers and preseason games are not coached or even played like regular season games.
Since the RPMs are an average of just three games , a single game like the Saints thumping of the Raiders, can skew things for these two teams. The Saints vaulted to the top while the Raiders sunk to the bottom. The Saints’ RPM number of 90 is a better game average than the 2007 Patriots who had an RPM of 83 and went 16-0. At possessionpoints.com, we admit that we like the Saints a lot this season, but not that much.
It is nice to see that the preseason Saints are not doing anything to make us back off our preseason preview prediction which says that New Orleans will be a playoff team this year. But note that the Falcons are right there on the Saints’ heels in the preseason, so that could be a very interesting division to watch.
Right behind the Saints and Falcons are last year’s two Super Bowl teams: the Steelers and Cardinals. The Steelers had a full season RPM last year of just over 40 and their preseason number is very similar.
The Giants, Eagles, Texans and Packers are all teams we think could and should make the playoffs, and their RPMs are right around 0. It is not impossible for teams to get into the playoffs with an RPM that low, but when it happens typically a team loses their first playoff game. (See the article we wrote in January, Playoff Upsets – What Upsets?)
An RPM in the low, single-digit, negative numbers to an RPM that goes positive is not something to get too concerned about in the preseason from our point of view.
The opposite is true too. You’ve probably heard it a hundred times this preseason: The Lions went 4-0 last year in the and then went 0-16 in the regular season. Preseason numbers would have been misleading at best putting the Lions near the top of the chart..
So, are we concerned about the 1-2 Chargers who have a terrible -55 RPM? Yes, we are a little, To us, this might be a warning flag. We would rather see the Chargers’ RPM up there with the 0-3 Broncos. But the Chargers have started slowly in the regular season in the past and still managed to make the playoffs. Will they repeat that trend this season? Perhaps, they are getting their slow start out of the way in the preseason, so they can get into a winning frame of mind quickly in the regular season.
We hope that is the case, as they might not be able to afford being upset by the Raiders in their opener this year since they have the Ravens and Steelers as two of their next three opponents. We would hate to see them go into their early bye week with a 1-3 record especially since our preseason preview was expecting them to be 3-1 at that point.
Ain’t the preseason fun?
While these RPMs are interesting to look at and speculate about, you have to remember two things: Only three preseason games are used in generating these numbers and preseason games are not coached or even played like regular season games.
Since the RPMs are an average of just three games , a single game like the Saints thumping of the Raiders, can skew things for these two teams. The Saints vaulted to the top while the Raiders sunk to the bottom. The Saints’ RPM number of 90 is a better game average than the 2007 Patriots who had an RPM of 83 and went 16-0. At possessionpoints.com, we admit that we like the Saints a lot this season, but not that much.
It is nice to see that the preseason Saints are not doing anything to make us back off our preseason preview prediction which says that New Orleans will be a playoff team this year. But note that the Falcons are right there on the Saints’ heels in the preseason, so that could be a very interesting division to watch.
Right behind the Saints and Falcons are last year’s two Super Bowl teams: the Steelers and Cardinals. The Steelers had a full season RPM last year of just over 40 and their preseason number is very similar.
The Giants, Eagles, Texans and Packers are all teams we think could and should make the playoffs, and their RPMs are right around 0. It is not impossible for teams to get into the playoffs with an RPM that low, but when it happens typically a team loses their first playoff game. (See the article we wrote in January, Playoff Upsets – What Upsets?)
An RPM in the low, single-digit, negative numbers to an RPM that goes positive is not something to get too concerned about in the preseason from our point of view.
The opposite is true too. You’ve probably heard it a hundred times this preseason: The Lions went 4-0 last year in the and then went 0-16 in the regular season. Preseason numbers would have been misleading at best putting the Lions near the top of the chart..
So, are we concerned about the 1-2 Chargers who have a terrible -55 RPM? Yes, we are a little, To us, this might be a warning flag. We would rather see the Chargers’ RPM up there with the 0-3 Broncos. But the Chargers have started slowly in the regular season in the past and still managed to make the playoffs. Will they repeat that trend this season? Perhaps, they are getting their slow start out of the way in the preseason, so they can get into a winning frame of mind quickly in the regular season.
We hope that is the case, as they might not be able to afford being upset by the Raiders in their opener this year since they have the Ravens and Steelers as two of their next three opponents. We would hate to see them go into their early bye week with a 1-3 record especially since our preseason preview was expecting them to be 3-1 at that point.
Ain’t the preseason fun?
Sunday, August 30, 2009
2009 Fantasy Football Player Lists With A Twist
It is late preseason, and if you can’t find a list ranking players for Fantasy Football then you aren’t looking too hard.
Fantasy lists vary from site to site, but possessionpoints.com likes to look at things a bit differently. Our player lists contain an “expected value” next to the player’s name. This expected value helps Fantasy participants gauge if there really is a difference between the No. 4 and No. 5 players on the list. Of course, this “expected value” is based on one particular scoring system, which we list at the end of this article for your reference. Depending on the Fantasy game you may play, this expected value may vary some, but it still gives you a relative difference between players.
When you look at most lists, look to see if they are they giving you a list for the best player next week or for the remainder of the season? Can you even tell? Fantasy can get complicated, so you have to know what your list is telling you.
Over the last three years, we have found that many Fantasy players have the most fun when they can actively manage their team. To accommodate this management need, we provide three lists for each player position: an Expected Value for Next Week, an Expected Value for the Next Four Weeks, and an Expected Value for the Remainder of the Season. We give you a sneak peak at these lists later in this article.
If you are someone who wants to set your roster and only make changes when injury or something like that forces you to, then look at the Remainder of the Season charts. You’ll have your up and down weeks, but in the end, we think the top players on this list will serve you best.
However, if you are like most Fantasy players, you will want to know what to expect from your players this week and who on your roster to sit or play. For this type of game involvement, you need the Expected Value for Next Week chart.
Four weeks into the NFL season completes a quarter of the season, so even if you only adjust your roster a few times a season, you may want to look at the next quarter of the season to see where your players stand. That’s why we have the Next Four Weeks list.
See for yourself below how the lists can vary by looking at just the top five in each player position.
Quarterbacks:
It would seem that it is hard to go wrong with any of the top five QBs for the season: Brees, Brady, Rodgers, Romo and Rivers. Tony Romo is one that we struggled with as far as any offseason adjustments. He lost a top target, Terrell Owens, but perhaps team chemistry will make the difference here.
If we had him on our fantasy team, we would keep a close eye on how he performs the first few weeks. We expect he will be with the leaders the first week, and the first 4 weeks. However, if he underperforms early, perhaps you might want to see if you can upgrade as there is a pretty good chance he will fall short of being a top five for the full season.
Running backs:
Let’s see: Adrian Peterson, Adrian Peterson and Adrian Peterson. Anybody surprised by that? Of course not, but some of the other players on our lists surprised us a bit.
DeAngelo Williams isn’t on the “Next 4 weeks” chart, mostly because he has a bye in week Four. This shows what every Fantasy player knows, and that is you have to manage carefully for bye weeks. Our full lists also highlight in what week players have byes. It looks to us that Matt Forte, Clinton Portis and Maurice Jones-Drew may have a better first quarter of the season than they will the remainder of the season.
Wide Receivers:
Larry Fitzgerald is tops on our Expected Value for the Remainder of the Season chart, but his bye in week four keeps him off the “Next 4 Weeks” chart. Greg Jennings is fifth on the season chart, and we really think the Rodgers to Jennings combination could be as potent as the Brady to Moss combination.
Calvin Johnson will be a top target for whoever is the starting QB in Detroit. However, the biggest variable with Calvin Johnson will be the Lions themselves. If, as a team, they improve over last year, then he will be a top, if not the top Fantasy receiver this year. For Calvin Johnson to become the top receiver in week one depends on whether or not the Saints have improved on defense. If in your draft you have the choice between Calvin Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald, nobody would be the least bit surprised by a selection of Fitzgerald.
Tight Ends:
Similar to the other lists, nobody will be surprised to see Witten, Gates, Clark or Gonzales on the top of these lists. Where the lists get interesting is seeing Shockey at number two for the first week. We guess we he can attribute this to the fact that the Saints open up against the Lions in Week one.
Defense / Special Teams:
Defenses that can generate turnovers and score are featured on these lists. The Ravens, Steelers and Titans all fit that description. We are a little worried that we may not have made enough adjustments to the Eagles’ defense from last season, and that they won’t live up to our expected values. They have a new defensive coordinator and have already lost their starting middle linebacker for the season. However, Asante Samuels appears primed to have a big season in the turnover department. If he can convert a few of his picks into touchdowns, the Eagles should have a top five defense.
Kickers:
Kickers are typically taken in the later rounds of the draft, and with good reason. If you get one of the good ones, there isn’t that much difference over the course of the season. So draft a top kicker, and forget about him, as long as he doesn’t get hurt, he should contribute.
For completeness, the scoring system on which our Expected Values are based is:
Touchdown is 6 points - passing, receiving, rushing or Kick return (a passing TD the QB and receiver get 6pts. Kick return points go to player not DEF/special teams)
Passing: 0.03 points per yard passing, -3 points for an INT
Rushing: 0.1 points per yard
Other: -2 points for a fumble, 2 points for 2 Point conversion.
Kicking: 3 points for FG, +1 if over 39 yards, +0.1 point each yard over 40, 1 point for PAT, -1 point missed PAT or FG under 30 yards
Defense/special team: 6 points TD (not kickoff or punt returns), 2 points safety, 2 points INT, 2 points fumble recovery, 2 points blocked kick (FG, punt, PAT), 1 point QB sack, 12 points if No Points are allowed, -0.5 points for each point allowed.
Fantasy lists vary from site to site, but possessionpoints.com likes to look at things a bit differently. Our player lists contain an “expected value” next to the player’s name. This expected value helps Fantasy participants gauge if there really is a difference between the No. 4 and No. 5 players on the list. Of course, this “expected value” is based on one particular scoring system, which we list at the end of this article for your reference. Depending on the Fantasy game you may play, this expected value may vary some, but it still gives you a relative difference between players.
When you look at most lists, look to see if they are they giving you a list for the best player next week or for the remainder of the season? Can you even tell? Fantasy can get complicated, so you have to know what your list is telling you.
Over the last three years, we have found that many Fantasy players have the most fun when they can actively manage their team. To accommodate this management need, we provide three lists for each player position: an Expected Value for Next Week, an Expected Value for the Next Four Weeks, and an Expected Value for the Remainder of the Season. We give you a sneak peak at these lists later in this article.
If you are someone who wants to set your roster and only make changes when injury or something like that forces you to, then look at the Remainder of the Season charts. You’ll have your up and down weeks, but in the end, we think the top players on this list will serve you best.
However, if you are like most Fantasy players, you will want to know what to expect from your players this week and who on your roster to sit or play. For this type of game involvement, you need the Expected Value for Next Week chart.
Four weeks into the NFL season completes a quarter of the season, so even if you only adjust your roster a few times a season, you may want to look at the next quarter of the season to see where your players stand. That’s why we have the Next Four Weeks list.
See for yourself below how the lists can vary by looking at just the top five in each player position.
Quarterbacks:
It would seem that it is hard to go wrong with any of the top five QBs for the season: Brees, Brady, Rodgers, Romo and Rivers. Tony Romo is one that we struggled with as far as any offseason adjustments. He lost a top target, Terrell Owens, but perhaps team chemistry will make the difference here.
If we had him on our fantasy team, we would keep a close eye on how he performs the first few weeks. We expect he will be with the leaders the first week, and the first 4 weeks. However, if he underperforms early, perhaps you might want to see if you can upgrade as there is a pretty good chance he will fall short of being a top five for the full season.
Running backs:
Let’s see: Adrian Peterson, Adrian Peterson and Adrian Peterson. Anybody surprised by that? Of course not, but some of the other players on our lists surprised us a bit.
DeAngelo Williams isn’t on the “Next 4 weeks” chart, mostly because he has a bye in week Four. This shows what every Fantasy player knows, and that is you have to manage carefully for bye weeks. Our full lists also highlight in what week players have byes. It looks to us that Matt Forte, Clinton Portis and Maurice Jones-Drew may have a better first quarter of the season than they will the remainder of the season.
Wide Receivers:
Larry Fitzgerald is tops on our Expected Value for the Remainder of the Season chart, but his bye in week four keeps him off the “Next 4 Weeks” chart. Greg Jennings is fifth on the season chart, and we really think the Rodgers to Jennings combination could be as potent as the Brady to Moss combination.
Calvin Johnson will be a top target for whoever is the starting QB in Detroit. However, the biggest variable with Calvin Johnson will be the Lions themselves. If, as a team, they improve over last year, then he will be a top, if not the top Fantasy receiver this year. For Calvin Johnson to become the top receiver in week one depends on whether or not the Saints have improved on defense. If in your draft you have the choice between Calvin Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald, nobody would be the least bit surprised by a selection of Fitzgerald.
Tight Ends:
Similar to the other lists, nobody will be surprised to see Witten, Gates, Clark or Gonzales on the top of these lists. Where the lists get interesting is seeing Shockey at number two for the first week. We guess we he can attribute this to the fact that the Saints open up against the Lions in Week one.
Defense / Special Teams:
Defenses that can generate turnovers and score are featured on these lists. The Ravens, Steelers and Titans all fit that description. We are a little worried that we may not have made enough adjustments to the Eagles’ defense from last season, and that they won’t live up to our expected values. They have a new defensive coordinator and have already lost their starting middle linebacker for the season. However, Asante Samuels appears primed to have a big season in the turnover department. If he can convert a few of his picks into touchdowns, the Eagles should have a top five defense.
Kickers:
Kickers are typically taken in the later rounds of the draft, and with good reason. If you get one of the good ones, there isn’t that much difference over the course of the season. So draft a top kicker, and forget about him, as long as he doesn’t get hurt, he should contribute.
For completeness, the scoring system on which our Expected Values are based is:
Touchdown is 6 points - passing, receiving, rushing or Kick return (a passing TD the QB and receiver get 6pts. Kick return points go to player not DEF/special teams)
Passing: 0.03 points per yard passing, -3 points for an INT
Rushing: 0.1 points per yard
Other: -2 points for a fumble, 2 points for 2 Point conversion.
Kicking: 3 points for FG, +1 if over 39 yards, +0.1 point each yard over 40, 1 point for PAT, -1 point missed PAT or FG under 30 yards
Defense/special team: 6 points TD (not kickoff or punt returns), 2 points safety, 2 points INT, 2 points fumble recovery, 2 points blocked kick (FG, punt, PAT), 1 point QB sack, 12 points if No Points are allowed, -0.5 points for each point allowed.
Sunday, August 16, 2009
PossessionPoints.com's Preseason Preview Issue Has Arrived
PossessionPoints.com is thrilled to announce that our Preseason Preview Issue is now available on our site. Our 35-page publication analyzes each NFL team according to our PossessionPoints stat.
In our analysis, we offer our projections for each team's performance for the upcoming season. We base our projections on last season's PossessionPoints performance Rankings and make adjustments to them by taking into account key factors such as "coaching continuity, strength of schedule and changes in offense and defense.
We also want to stress that PossessionPoints.com Rankings are different from traditional power rankings in that they offer no opinion or emotional bias. They are completely objective and quantifiable.
Our preview issue also offers upside scenarios for each team where we look at where a team can improve their records and downside scenarios which focuses on how a team may fall.
Most importantly, we will give you our projection on who is going to the Big Dance in February.
Last season, PossessionPoints.com had a 153-103 record in game projections - not bad when you consider we made our projections before a preseason game was even played.
To get a copy of our Preseason Preview Issue, just go to PossessionPoints.com. You can order just the preview issue or you can sign up for a membership and get the preview issue for free!
Since we are in preseason, our special pricing on membership still applies. Once the regular season begins, prices go up because the value of the PossessionPoints stat goes up with each game.
Come and see what PossessionPoints.com can do for you. As a member, you will receive weekly match up pages for all games both straight up and against the spread (ATS), weekly team pages with trendlines, fantasy player updates that analyze players on a weekly, four-week and remainder of season basis and unique information that no one else has.
In our analysis, we offer our projections for each team's performance for the upcoming season. We base our projections on last season's PossessionPoints performance Rankings and make adjustments to them by taking into account key factors such as "coaching continuity, strength of schedule and changes in offense and defense.
We also want to stress that PossessionPoints.com Rankings are different from traditional power rankings in that they offer no opinion or emotional bias. They are completely objective and quantifiable.
Our preview issue also offers upside scenarios for each team where we look at where a team can improve their records and downside scenarios which focuses on how a team may fall.
Most importantly, we will give you our projection on who is going to the Big Dance in February.
Last season, PossessionPoints.com had a 153-103 record in game projections - not bad when you consider we made our projections before a preseason game was even played.
To get a copy of our Preseason Preview Issue, just go to PossessionPoints.com. You can order just the preview issue or you can sign up for a membership and get the preview issue for free!
Since we are in preseason, our special pricing on membership still applies. Once the regular season begins, prices go up because the value of the PossessionPoints stat goes up with each game.
Come and see what PossessionPoints.com can do for you. As a member, you will receive weekly match up pages for all games both straight up and against the spread (ATS), weekly team pages with trendlines, fantasy player updates that analyze players on a weekly, four-week and remainder of season basis and unique information that no one else has.
Saturday, August 1, 2009
Could Peyton Manning Lock Up His Trip To Canton This Year?
Many people already consider Peyton Manning a surefire Hall Of Famer, and quite frankly we won’t argue with them. But we know there are still some doubters. This year, Peyton has to take on a larger leadership role than ever before in his pro career. His team is going through a major transition with a new head coach, Jim Caldwell, and a new offensive coordinator, Clyde Christensen.
No matter how much successors strive for consistency with their predecessors, they are still different people with different ways of doing things. No two people, even if they have worked together in the past, perform exactly alike. How these differences translate to the team will, in our view, dictate how the Colts season goes.
If football were a normal business, these changes would be viewed as “safe” since you promoted the assistant head coach / QB coach to head coach and the wide receivers coach to offensive coordinator. Both coaches have been with the Colts for eight years. On the surface, this could look like a very smooth natural progression with little effect on the Colts.
However, let’s face facts. NFL football is anything but a “normal business.” Team composition changes from year-to-year, and the fine line that separates good and bad moves around the league each year as well. Teams go from the cellar to the penthouse and vice versa in the blink of an eye.
The Colts could be in for a very difficult season if the Titans can maintain their stride from last season, the Texans continue to improve, and the Jaguars return to their 2007 form.
If the Colts win their division and “make some hay” in the playoffs, we have to believe it will be in large part due to the leadership and playing ability of their quarterback. If that doesn’t push any doubter over the edge as far as Manning’s Hall Of Fame credentials, we don’t know what would.
When we look at the Colts of last season, we see two different teams. Early in the year, Manning struggled to get over his offseason knee surgery. Look at the chart below:
In the last nine games, the Colts’ offense was 92% better by our measure than it was in the first seven games.
Was Peyton Manning’s health the only thing that caused this turn around? It is hard to say because the defense performed much the same in the last nine games as it did in the first seven. In fact, there was only a negligible one percent difference by our measure.
So, perhaps we are putting too much on the shoulders of Manning, but we will be watching the Colts this year with great interest. As we said, conditions appear right for the Colts to have a mediocre season, but in our view, the wildcard is Peyton Manning.
No matter how much successors strive for consistency with their predecessors, they are still different people with different ways of doing things. No two people, even if they have worked together in the past, perform exactly alike. How these differences translate to the team will, in our view, dictate how the Colts season goes.
If football were a normal business, these changes would be viewed as “safe” since you promoted the assistant head coach / QB coach to head coach and the wide receivers coach to offensive coordinator. Both coaches have been with the Colts for eight years. On the surface, this could look like a very smooth natural progression with little effect on the Colts.
However, let’s face facts. NFL football is anything but a “normal business.” Team composition changes from year-to-year, and the fine line that separates good and bad moves around the league each year as well. Teams go from the cellar to the penthouse and vice versa in the blink of an eye.
The Colts could be in for a very difficult season if the Titans can maintain their stride from last season, the Texans continue to improve, and the Jaguars return to their 2007 form.
If the Colts win their division and “make some hay” in the playoffs, we have to believe it will be in large part due to the leadership and playing ability of their quarterback. If that doesn’t push any doubter over the edge as far as Manning’s Hall Of Fame credentials, we don’t know what would.
When we look at the Colts of last season, we see two different teams. Early in the year, Manning struggled to get over his offseason knee surgery. Look at the chart below:
In the last nine games, the Colts’ offense was 92% better by our measure than it was in the first seven games.
Was Peyton Manning’s health the only thing that caused this turn around? It is hard to say because the defense performed much the same in the last nine games as it did in the first seven. In fact, there was only a negligible one percent difference by our measure.
So, perhaps we are putting too much on the shoulders of Manning, but we will be watching the Colts this year with great interest. As we said, conditions appear right for the Colts to have a mediocre season, but in our view, the wildcard is Peyton Manning.
Thursday, July 30, 2009
PossessionPoints.com Gearing Up for 2009
If you haven't signed up for 2009, now is a great time. Our Preseason Preview Issue is just a couple of weeks away.
We detail how teams look as measured by our PossessionPoints stat.
We cover each team, game by game and tell you how good or how bad they may be.
This season's subscribers will get our Preseason Preview Issue as soon as it comes out. Some of the things we said in last year's issue:
"The Steelers could have a very special year...and a 12-4 record"
"Hey, hey, hey Cardinal fans, this could be your year! ...The result is a 9-7 record"
Of course, we didn't forecast every team's record right, but in our annual preseason issue, we also look at what could go right and what could go wrong and how it affects our forecast.
Here are some examples from last season:
We originally put the Patriots at 14-2, but when we talked about what could go wrong we said:
"It will probably take a key injury or two say to Tom Brady and Randy Moss (no jinx intended), to derail the Patriots this year. But if they do suffer such a hardship, their record could fall to 9-7."
"The computer does give hope if the Dolphins can improve their performance 15% more on offense and defense. If we up their improvement to 25% in each category, their projected record actually vaults all the way to 10-6." (they actually went 11-5 and improved 30% on offense and 28% on defense by our measure)
Sign up today to get 2009's issue as soon as it comes out in mid-August.
What is this one-of-a-kind information that PossessionPoints.com provides worth to you?
Well, until the end of preseason, you can be privy to PossessionPoints.com's information and analysis for an affordable price of $29.95 for the entire season. After the preseason, the subscription price doubles!
If you are a football fan or fantasy football player, don't miss out on our annual preseason special!
Go to PossessionPoints.com now
We detail how teams look as measured by our PossessionPoints stat.
We cover each team, game by game and tell you how good or how bad they may be.
This season's subscribers will get our Preseason Preview Issue as soon as it comes out. Some of the things we said in last year's issue:
"The Steelers could have a very special year...and a 12-4 record"
"Hey, hey, hey Cardinal fans, this could be your year! ...The result is a 9-7 record"
Of course, we didn't forecast every team's record right, but in our annual preseason issue, we also look at what could go right and what could go wrong and how it affects our forecast.
Here are some examples from last season:
We originally put the Patriots at 14-2, but when we talked about what could go wrong we said:
"It will probably take a key injury or two say to Tom Brady and Randy Moss (no jinx intended), to derail the Patriots this year. But if they do suffer such a hardship, their record could fall to 9-7."
"The computer does give hope if the Dolphins can improve their performance 15% more on offense and defense. If we up their improvement to 25% in each category, their projected record actually vaults all the way to 10-6." (they actually went 11-5 and improved 30% on offense and 28% on defense by our measure)
Sign up today to get 2009's issue as soon as it comes out in mid-August.
What is this one-of-a-kind information that PossessionPoints.com provides worth to you?
Well, until the end of preseason, you can be privy to PossessionPoints.com's information and analysis for an affordable price of $29.95 for the entire season. After the preseason, the subscription price doubles!
If you are a football fan or fantasy football player, don't miss out on our annual preseason special!
Go to PossessionPoints.com now
Monday, July 27, 2009
Looking Forward to a Full Year of Mike Singletary
As pre-season camps get ready to get underway around the NFL, we find it is time to get rolling on our Pre-Season Preview issue. In this issue, PossessionPoints.com examines all teams’ off-season moves and upcoming schedules. We use this information to make forecasting adjustments for the upcoming season.
Coaching continuity is one key factor we use for forecasting adjustments. For last season’s winning teams, we place greater weight on coaching continuity than we do on last season’s losing teams.
This season, we find ourselves more concerned about the Indianapolis Colts than we do about the St. Louis Rams. Although the Colts have replaced Tony Dungy with his appointed heir, Jim Caldwell is still an unknown commodity in the head coach position.
The question mark around the Colts' new coach makes it difficult to automatically keep the team at a high level of performance; it prompts us to give a neutral to negative adjustment to the Colts in our assessment.
Even though Caldwell has been with the Colts’ organization, it’s hard to quantify his leadership abilities, chemistry with players, and game-day decision in this new position until he performs as a head coach.
Conversely, the Rams hired Steve Spagnuolo, who comes in with a good reputation that was built as the Giants defensive coordinator. Since the Rams have struggled in the past seasons, their performance in the upcoming season will most likely improve. In our calculations, a new coach in this situation becomes a neutral to positive adjustment.
The 49ers are an interesting case. They have Mike Singletary, who took over after the seventh game last season.
When we look to forecast the 49ers’ upcoming season, we need to decide if we want to base our calculations on their full season 2008 data or just the nine games Singletary coached, in which San Francisco went 5-4.
The chart below shows the 49ers’ season split into the pre-Singletary and post-Singletary periods:
Their overall PossessionPoints performance improved 109 percent under Singletary: that overall improvement was driven by the 40 percent improvement in their defense.
The other consideration that comes into play is the team’s '09 schedule. Based on last year’s “overall” PossessionPoints numbers, the 49ers’ '09 schedule is the 26th hardest or 7th easiest, depending on how you want to look at it.
We realize that when a coach takes over in the middle of the season, there is a limit of what he can change. For Mike Singletary to have the effect he had makes for some potentially high expectations next season.
Let’s face facts: the 49ers are not in the toughest division in football. If we get to December and they are contending with the Cardinals and Seahawks for the division title, we would not be surprised.
Coaching continuity is one key factor we use for forecasting adjustments. For last season’s winning teams, we place greater weight on coaching continuity than we do on last season’s losing teams.
This season, we find ourselves more concerned about the Indianapolis Colts than we do about the St. Louis Rams. Although the Colts have replaced Tony Dungy with his appointed heir, Jim Caldwell is still an unknown commodity in the head coach position.
The question mark around the Colts' new coach makes it difficult to automatically keep the team at a high level of performance; it prompts us to give a neutral to negative adjustment to the Colts in our assessment.
Even though Caldwell has been with the Colts’ organization, it’s hard to quantify his leadership abilities, chemistry with players, and game-day decision in this new position until he performs as a head coach.
Conversely, the Rams hired Steve Spagnuolo, who comes in with a good reputation that was built as the Giants defensive coordinator. Since the Rams have struggled in the past seasons, their performance in the upcoming season will most likely improve. In our calculations, a new coach in this situation becomes a neutral to positive adjustment.
The 49ers are an interesting case. They have Mike Singletary, who took over after the seventh game last season.
When we look to forecast the 49ers’ upcoming season, we need to decide if we want to base our calculations on their full season 2008 data or just the nine games Singletary coached, in which San Francisco went 5-4.
The chart below shows the 49ers’ season split into the pre-Singletary and post-Singletary periods:
Their overall PossessionPoints performance improved 109 percent under Singletary: that overall improvement was driven by the 40 percent improvement in their defense.
The other consideration that comes into play is the team’s '09 schedule. Based on last year’s “overall” PossessionPoints numbers, the 49ers’ '09 schedule is the 26th hardest or 7th easiest, depending on how you want to look at it.
We realize that when a coach takes over in the middle of the season, there is a limit of what he can change. For Mike Singletary to have the effect he had makes for some potentially high expectations next season.
Let’s face facts: the 49ers are not in the toughest division in football. If we get to December and they are contending with the Cardinals and Seahawks for the division title, we would not be surprised.
Monday, June 1, 2009
As each season looms, the debate over which division is the toughest intensifies. We, at PossessionPoints.com , are no strangers to this debate and love to participate in it as well. Here is our preliminary overview of the NFL divisions. We hope it might help you decide who you think should be known as the “Toughest Division in the NFL”.
This year, we feel there are surprises on the horizon as the parity between NFL teams is on the increase. For many people, parity is a bad word meaning mediocrity, but we view it as a positive. We believe fans will see more teams playing up or raising the bar in performance which could lead to some interesting game results down the road.
As of now, we still look at the NFC East and the AFC South as the division strongholds. Most of the NFL experts and analysts seem to view the Giants and the Eagles as formidable threats on both offense and defense, and many of these experts have one of these teams taking the division and possibly going to the Super Bowl.
While we do not argue this point, we do not want to count out Dallas or the Redskins. Both teams had their struggles last year, but both teams managed a .500 or better season. An injection of talent and the elimination of some team distractions may be enough to hoist one or both of these teams into the playoff arena. With so much potential, this division definitely rates a vote as the toughest in the NFL.
In recent years, the AFC South has also become a force to be reckoned with. It would not surprise us in the least to see the Colts, Titans or even the Texans make their way into the heart of the playoffs. We know that the Colts have adjustments to handle with the retirement of Tony Dungy and offensive coordinator Tom Moore. However, their new head coach, Jim Caldwell, who has worked for Dungy since his Tampa Baydays, was the first choice of Dungy, and the Colts are trying to bring back Moore as a consultant for the team. So, the adjustments may not be too difficult to handle.
As for the Jaguars, we look at them as a team that has to prove a bit more before we list them in the same class as their division opponents. However, they take nothing away from the threat that this division holds as they were a playoff team in 2007. If the Jaguars can forget 2008 and return to their 2007 form, the AFC South could well be the toughest division.
There is a sound argument to also view NFC South, the AFC East and the NFC South as contenders for the toughest division crown. With the Panthers, Falcons and Saints in the NFC South, this division may be ready to let loose this season as they did last season. All the teams in the NFC South also had a .500 or better record in 2008.
Now, Bucs’ fans, do not get upset, but we think it is Tampa Bay that may have a tough time bringing this division home. The Bucs could find themselves playing a very long season this year.
The AFC East gets a boost from the return of Tom Brady to the Patriots’ roster. If the reports about his strength and agility are true, there is no doubt that the Patriots can be viewed as potential Super Bowl contenders. We also assume that the Dolphins have the ability to repeat or beat their 2008 performance. Only the Bills at 7-9 were below .500 in this division last season.
If the Patriots’ return to their 2007 dominance, they can make it more difficult for other teams in their division to get to a .500 or better season.
The Jets may join the club of teams that start rookie QBs with a new head coach. It worked for Atlanta and Baltimore last season, so why not this season? With so much potential waiting to be unleashed from these AFC East teams, this division might turn out to be the toughest of all.
We have to admit that we think the toughness of the NFC North is compromised by the presence of the Detroit Lions. Yes, they have the No. 1 draft pick and yes, their future looks brighter. But it is a long road from 0-16 to the playoffs, no matter what you are paying your new quarterback. We do look for the Lions to improve, but we are doubtful of their ability to make the playoffs.
With that said, the NFC North has some of the toughest competition around with the Bears, Packers and Vikings who are all capable of bringing home a division championship. The most likely suspects for the division title for us at this point are the Vikings or Bears who will no doubt benefit from the addition of Jay Cutler.
So, as of now, we see that five out of the eight divisions have a clear shot at winning the “toughest” moniker, but let’s see how the remaining three divisions – the AFC North and the AFC and NFC West fare.
We know that the AFC North includes not only the Super Bowl Champs, the Pittsburgh Steelers, but their strongest opponent, the Baltimore Ravens as well. Both of these teams will most likely be playoff bound again. However, when your division includes the Bengals and Browns who both have a ton to prove this season, it’s hard to seriously see this division as the toughest.
The AFC West has many questions to answer this year. We do believe that this division is the Chargers to lose. We do see improvements with the Raiders and Chiefs but these improvements are probably not enough to make this division the toughest in the NFL.
The Broncos are now without Jay Cutler, and they also have a new head coach in Josh McDaniels. It is hard to tell if a team will gel with a new quarterback and a new head coach. So, while we see a great deal of potential in this division, we think it is premature at best to say that this division is the toughest.
Last but not least is the NFC West. Okay, the Super Bowl runner-up, the Arizona Cardinals are in this division, but we have to consider the Seahawks, who were perennial champs prior to last season, as a team to consider for the division crown. We said before last season started, that the coaching situation would undo the Seahawks’ season and that proved true. However, with Jim Mora on the sidelines for all of last year, the transition for this team should be complete. We are looking for the Seahawks of old to make a return.
In the NFC West, we also are anxious to see how the 49ers perform in their first complete season with Mike Singletary. Will his high-motivation coaching tactics continue the success he saw with the 49ers last season? Another team that could be on the upswing are the Rams. If their new head coach Steve Spagnola can work the wonders with the entire Rams team as he did with the Giants’ defense, who knows what lies ahead?
Well, that is our preliminary look at the divisions and the positive and negative components of each. Again, what surprises us the most about this season is the increase in parity that exists throughout the league. In our view, parity can only add to the excitement of the game. We are anxious for the 2009 season already.
If we were to rank the divisions in 2008 based on how teams did in our Performance Ranking the final ranking would be:
NFC East
AFC East
NFC South
AFC South
AFC North
NFC North
AFC West
NFC West)
This year, we feel there are surprises on the horizon as the parity between NFL teams is on the increase. For many people, parity is a bad word meaning mediocrity, but we view it as a positive. We believe fans will see more teams playing up or raising the bar in performance which could lead to some interesting game results down the road.
As of now, we still look at the NFC East and the AFC South as the division strongholds. Most of the NFL experts and analysts seem to view the Giants and the Eagles as formidable threats on both offense and defense, and many of these experts have one of these teams taking the division and possibly going to the Super Bowl.
While we do not argue this point, we do not want to count out Dallas or the Redskins. Both teams had their struggles last year, but both teams managed a .500 or better season. An injection of talent and the elimination of some team distractions may be enough to hoist one or both of these teams into the playoff arena. With so much potential, this division definitely rates a vote as the toughest in the NFL.
In recent years, the AFC South has also become a force to be reckoned with. It would not surprise us in the least to see the Colts, Titans or even the Texans make their way into the heart of the playoffs. We know that the Colts have adjustments to handle with the retirement of Tony Dungy and offensive coordinator Tom Moore. However, their new head coach, Jim Caldwell, who has worked for Dungy since his Tampa Baydays, was the first choice of Dungy, and the Colts are trying to bring back Moore as a consultant for the team. So, the adjustments may not be too difficult to handle.
As for the Jaguars, we look at them as a team that has to prove a bit more before we list them in the same class as their division opponents. However, they take nothing away from the threat that this division holds as they were a playoff team in 2007. If the Jaguars can forget 2008 and return to their 2007 form, the AFC South could well be the toughest division.
There is a sound argument to also view NFC South, the AFC East and the NFC South as contenders for the toughest division crown. With the Panthers, Falcons and Saints in the NFC South, this division may be ready to let loose this season as they did last season. All the teams in the NFC South also had a .500 or better record in 2008.
Now, Bucs’ fans, do not get upset, but we think it is Tampa Bay that may have a tough time bringing this division home. The Bucs could find themselves playing a very long season this year.
The AFC East gets a boost from the return of Tom Brady to the Patriots’ roster. If the reports about his strength and agility are true, there is no doubt that the Patriots can be viewed as potential Super Bowl contenders. We also assume that the Dolphins have the ability to repeat or beat their 2008 performance. Only the Bills at 7-9 were below .500 in this division last season.
If the Patriots’ return to their 2007 dominance, they can make it more difficult for other teams in their division to get to a .500 or better season.
The Jets may join the club of teams that start rookie QBs with a new head coach. It worked for Atlanta and Baltimore last season, so why not this season? With so much potential waiting to be unleashed from these AFC East teams, this division might turn out to be the toughest of all.
We have to admit that we think the toughness of the NFC North is compromised by the presence of the Detroit Lions. Yes, they have the No. 1 draft pick and yes, their future looks brighter. But it is a long road from 0-16 to the playoffs, no matter what you are paying your new quarterback. We do look for the Lions to improve, but we are doubtful of their ability to make the playoffs.
With that said, the NFC North has some of the toughest competition around with the Bears, Packers and Vikings who are all capable of bringing home a division championship. The most likely suspects for the division title for us at this point are the Vikings or Bears who will no doubt benefit from the addition of Jay Cutler.
So, as of now, we see that five out of the eight divisions have a clear shot at winning the “toughest” moniker, but let’s see how the remaining three divisions – the AFC North and the AFC and NFC West fare.
We know that the AFC North includes not only the Super Bowl Champs, the Pittsburgh Steelers, but their strongest opponent, the Baltimore Ravens as well. Both of these teams will most likely be playoff bound again. However, when your division includes the Bengals and Browns who both have a ton to prove this season, it’s hard to seriously see this division as the toughest.
The AFC West has many questions to answer this year. We do believe that this division is the Chargers to lose. We do see improvements with the Raiders and Chiefs but these improvements are probably not enough to make this division the toughest in the NFL.
The Broncos are now without Jay Cutler, and they also have a new head coach in Josh McDaniels. It is hard to tell if a team will gel with a new quarterback and a new head coach. So, while we see a great deal of potential in this division, we think it is premature at best to say that this division is the toughest.
Last but not least is the NFC West. Okay, the Super Bowl runner-up, the Arizona Cardinals are in this division, but we have to consider the Seahawks, who were perennial champs prior to last season, as a team to consider for the division crown. We said before last season started, that the coaching situation would undo the Seahawks’ season and that proved true. However, with Jim Mora on the sidelines for all of last year, the transition for this team should be complete. We are looking for the Seahawks of old to make a return.
In the NFC West, we also are anxious to see how the 49ers perform in their first complete season with Mike Singletary. Will his high-motivation coaching tactics continue the success he saw with the 49ers last season? Another team that could be on the upswing are the Rams. If their new head coach Steve Spagnola can work the wonders with the entire Rams team as he did with the Giants’ defense, who knows what lies ahead?
Well, that is our preliminary look at the divisions and the positive and negative components of each. Again, what surprises us the most about this season is the increase in parity that exists throughout the league. In our view, parity can only add to the excitement of the game. We are anxious for the 2009 season already.
If we were to rank the divisions in 2008 based on how teams did in our Performance Ranking the final ranking would be:
NFC East
AFC East
NFC South
AFC South
AFC North
NFC North
AFC West
NFC West)
Sunday, May 17, 2009
NFL Power Rankings: An Alternative View
Now that the draft is over and mini-camps have started around the league, the next onslaught of information coming your way will be the never-ending stream of “NFL Power Rankings”.
In some ways, PossessionPoints.com is no different than other information outlets in that we will be presenting our own version of Power Rankings weekly during the season. However, that is where the similarity ends.
We believe that when people look at the lists of Power Rankings they want to see how their favorite team fares in the eyes of those who construct these Power Rankings and if their team has a chance of making it to the playoffs or the Super Bowl.
We would like to state right off the bat that a team’s talent is just one of the factors that determines a team’s win-loss record and a possible playoff berth.
In this article, we would like to highlight four factors that contribute to a team’s final win-loss record. Those factors are randomness, schedule, home field advantage and team quality (traditional Power Ranking if you will). We have provided a lot of the background information for this article on a page on our site.
Randomness:
We know that over the course of a season, a team’s final win-loss record is more than random luck. Much of a team’s success does depend on talent. However, imagine if you will, a scenario where all 32 teams are completely equal in the talent department and there is no such thing as a home field advantage. If these conditions existed, what kind of records do you think you would see?
Do you think that almost all teams would have win-loss records between 7-9 and 9-7?
We put together a quick little spreadsheet and used the 2009 schedule to come up with random results for all 256 games on the schedule. We posted some of the “random season” results on our site, and the results surprised us in that typically, the top teams had 12-4 records, and the bottom teams finished around 4-12.
It may seem strange, until you consider the fact that the chance of winning or losing 12 out of 16 coin tosses is about one in 36, and 11 wins or losses of 16 coin tosses is about one in 15. So, applying this same principle with 32 teams each season, it does make sense that just by random chance, some teams would go 12-4, and some would go 4-12.
We always expect extremes to be rare, and the odds of a random 16-0 or 0-16 record are around 1 in 65,000. As we were working with our spreadsheet, we did see this extreme occur, and it happened on our spreadsheet to the NY Jets. We did not purposely focus on the Jets. It could have been any of the teams, and we could have used any season schedule to get similar results.
We will grant you that the football sometimes takes funny bounces, and this can be a factor in some games during the season making luck or chance a legitimate portion in a team’s win-loss record. It is a totally unpredictable factor, and therefore, it cannot be incorporated into analysis and forecasting equations. Since equations are our thing, we do not want to spend that much time talking about randomness, but we also do not want you to dismiss the fact that it can affect a team’s win-loss record..
Schedule:
Take any ranking system. We do not care if it is an expert’s Power Rankings or last year’s win-loss rankings. You can pick whatever. Play these rankings against this year’s schedule, and you may be surprised at what you find.
To illustrate this point, we took a look at some 2009 Power Rankings that have already been published. For what we are doing in this article, it does not matter if you accept this order as realistic or not. In the example, we chose to focus on the 32 teams were ranked:
| 1 | Patriots | 9 | Bears | 17 | Jets | 25 | Chiefs |
| 2 | Steelers | 10 | Dolphins | 18 | Broncos | 26 | Bucs |
| 3 | Giants | 11 | Vikings | 19 | Texans | 27 | Bengals |
| 4 | Panthers | 12 | Eagles | 20 | Saints | 28 | Browns |
| 5 | Colts | 13 | Packers | 21 | Redskins | 29 | Seahawks |
| 6 | Falcons | 14 | Cardinals | 22 | Bills | 30 | Raiders |
| 7 | Ravens | 15 | Chargers | 23 | 49ers | 31 | Rams |
| 8 | Titans | 16 | Cowboys | 24 | Jaguars | 32 | Lions |
We played these rankings against this year’s schedule neglecting home field advantage or any randomness.
In this scenario, if a team plays a higher-ranked team, the lower-ranked team gets the loss while the higher-ranked wins.
When we played these rankings against the 2009 schedule in this manner, it was no surprise that the top nine teams would become playoff teams. However, the No. 10 Dolphins would miss the playoffs with a record of 9-7 while the No. 11 Vikings would also miss the playoffs with a record of 10-6.
The next playoff team this list for the 2009 season would be the No.12 Eagles who play 11 teams that rank lower than the Eagles and only five teams that rank higher. This would give the Eagles an 11-5 record and a wildcard playoff spot.
Based on these rankings and their schedule, the No. 13 Packers, like the Vikings, would also miss the NFC playoffs with a 10-6 record.
The No. 14 Cardinals and No. 15 Chargers would win their divisions and make the playoffs with 9-7 and 10-6 records respectively.
One would like to think that the 12 best teams make the playoffs each year, but that just is not possible with the way the NFL schedule works, even if every team plays perfectly to its capability each week.
Home Field Advantage:
Now, we are going to get a little more complicated (yes, it is true) but stay with us. To be able to work with home field advantage variations, this we had to quantify how much better one team was relative to another. To keep this as simple as possible, we assumed the difference between each team was a constant.
So, the top ranked team was assigned a +8 (just our own statistical yardstick), the second team a +7.5, the third team a +7. Each team was graded 0.5 away from the one next to it, and the value of 0 was skipped so the bottom team had a -8. With this tight a ranking in our system, very small changes in the value of home field make a big difference.
Now, we can start modifying how much home field is worth and observe what happens to win -loss records and playoff scenarios. In the extreme adjustment of home field advantage, all teams would be 8-8, wining all their home games and losing all their road games. This would be boring. Who wants the home team to always win?
Once again, we used the same example rankings. When we made the home field advantage factor worth just one percent, the playoff picture changed very little. The No. 12 Eagles fell into a tie for the final NFC wildcard playoff spot as they saw their record fall to 10-6. However, it was not the No. 11 Vikings with whom they tied. It was the No. 13 Packers.
When we bumped up home field to two percent, the Packers’ record rose to 12-4, and they tied the Bears for the division. The Vikings remained behind them with a record of 10-6. At this level, the Eagles miss the playoffs with a 9-7 record. The Cardinals would still win the NFC west but now with an 11-5 record. The AFC playoff picture would remain unchanged.
At the four percent level, the Bears, Vikings and Packers all make the playoffs with 11-5 records. The Panthers and Falcons would tie for the NFC South title with 10-6 records.
The only point of this little exercise is to illustrate what many people take as a given. Schedule combined with a home field advantage does play a role in a team’s season and win-loss record. Yet, many Power Rankings omit these factors. Even with the constant distribution of team quality that we used, you can see how the value of home field can change win-loss records and the playoff picture.
Team Quality (Traditional Power Ranking):
Most “Power Rankings” authors are trying to enumerate teams in order of quality. In other words, best teams are ranked highest and the not-as-talented teams are ranked at the bottom. The question we always come up with is: How much better is the No. 1 team over the No. 2 team or even the No. 10 team?
An even distribution like we used in the “home field” analysis above is not a very realistic distribution. The top team may be well ahead of the remainder of the league, as it was with the 2007 Patriots, or the top five teams may be very close together like last season was by our measure. The same is true at the bottom. By our measure, the 2008 Lions fell well below the rest of the league.
To illustrate this, we took the same rankings and gave the top 12 teams relative performance grades between 34 and 45 (Again, our statistical yardstick). The bottom 12 teams got values between -34 and -45 while the middle eight teams were given values between 4 and -4.
Of course with no home field advantage, the records are the same as we described in the “schedule” section. We need to vary home field by larger increments now since the separation between the 32 teams is much greater being between 45 and -45 as opposed to 8 and -8 in the example above.
At a four percent adjustment, the Chargers no longer make the playoffs and are replaced by the Broncos who had a “Power Ranking” of 18. The Bears and Vikings make the playoffs while the Packers do not.
At a 15% adjustment, the Chargers are back in with a 9-7 record while the Broncos fall out with an 8-8 record. The Packers move back into contention for a playoff spot as their record equals the Vikings at 11-5. A tie breaker would determine who made the playoffs.
So What?
You are probably thinking, “So what, if you play with numbers enough you can make them say anything you want.” Well, not really, even given their relatively low power ranking of 14 there was virtually nothing we could do to make the Cardinals miss the playoffs. The NFC playoff picture fluctuated much more than the AFC playoff picture did.
Even if an all-knowing supernatural NFL power provided a perfectly ordered list of best to worst teams, the chances that the top 12 teams on this list make the playoffs would be very slim for the reasons we have explained.
A Different List:
As we said at the start of the article, we also publish a list that resembles the “Power Rankings” list. We call it our “Performance Rankings” because it is based on how teams perform in our PossessionPoints stat.
We are not going to explain all that goes into our stat in this article because we would bore you to death, but the end result is a positive or negative number we call the “Relative Performance Measure” or RPM. Our RPM list is just the ranking of teams from the largest RPM to the smallest. But with the RPM, you can see how close one team is to another. In fact, two adjacent teams may either be a fraction or several numbers apart. Typically the 32 teams will be spread over a 90-point or more range.
Below is a Performance Rankings chart. The last column, on the right shows the final RPM from last season (with one exception we will talk about later). It should be no surprise to note that the Steelers are on the top of the RPM list, and the Lions are on the bottom. Where some teams fell in the middle might be a surprise to some fans, but that is where the stat put them.
Some of you might be thinking, “Last year is history, why are you showing this now?”
| Rank | Team | W | L | Relative Performance measure |
| 1 | Steelers | 15 | 1 | 37.66 |
| 2 | Vikings | 14 | 2 | 36.31 |
| 3 | Eagles | 14 | 2 | 35.77 |
| 4 | Ravens | 13 | 3 | 35.66 |
| 5 | Giants | 14 | 2 | 34.15 |
| 6 | Patriots | 16 | 0 | 32.43 |
| 7 | Panthers | 14 | 2 | 29.71 |
| 8 | Packers | 12 | 4 | 26.05 |
| 9 | Chargers | 12 | 4 | 24.94 |
| 10 | Jets | 10 | 6 | 19.24 |
| 11 | Texans | 12 | 4 | 15.72 |
| 12 | Titans | 11 | 5 | 15.54 |
| 13 | Falcons | 8 | 8 | 14.02 |
| 14 | Saints | 8 | 8 | 12.63 |
| 15 | Cowboys | 7 | 9 | 11.85 |
| 16 | Dolphins | 8 | 8 | 11.84 |
| 17 | Cardinals | 11 | 5 | 10.93 |
| 18 | Bucs | 5 | 11 | 5.42 |
| 19 | Jaguars | 7 | 9 | -5.77 |
| 20 | Colts | 6 | 10 | -8.22 |
| 21 | Redskins | 5 | 11 | -9.19 |
| 22 | 49ers | 6 | 10 | -14.59 |
| 23 | Broncos | 6 | 10 | -17.70 |
| 24 | Bills | 2 | 14 | -17.76 |
| 25 | Browns | 5 | 11 | -23.48 |
| 26 | Bears | 6 | 10 | -24.12 |
| 27 | Chiefs | 1 | 15 | -39.24 |
| 28 | Raiders | 2 | 14 | -42.77 |
| 29 | Bengals | 2 | 14 | -44.38 |
| 30 | Rams | 2 | 14 | -46.06 |
| 31 | Seahawks | 2 | 14 | -48.49 |
| 32 | Lions | 0 | 16 | -60.94 |
Well, if you look at the chart and each team’s win-loss record, you will note that these records are not the win-loss records from 2008. What these win-loss columns show is a projection of each team for 2009 if each of the teams played their 2009 schedule at the same RPM level as 2008.
Do Not Panic! This is at best a partial look at what’s ahead. We have not made our modifications for offseason trades and drafts.
The one adjustment we talked about comes into play here. The Panthers’ 2008 RPM was not good. We adjusted them so they would fall with the leaders up at No. 7, within 8 points of the top ranked Steelers. Even with that adjustment, when we played the Panthers revised RPM against their schedule with a four percent home field adjustment, Carolina ends up with a 9-7 record. (Four percent home field adjustment is the best historical adjustment for our RPM).
Conversely, look at the No. 17 Cardinals. They had an RPM of 10.93 (the Super Bowl brought them down some). However, when we play that RPM against their 2009 schedule, we project a 12-4 record.
We could find a lot of interesting facts in this chart, but we are just going to focus on one more. The No. 13 Falcons and the No. 14 Saints are in the same division and had very similar 2008 RPMs of 12 and 14. Yet, if the No. 14 Saints play at the same level of their 2008 RPM in 2009, we project that they would have a 10-6 record while the No.13 Falcons would go to just 8-8.
Our list ranks teams based on how they perform in our stat. History has shown us that this is a pretty good way to look at which teams can ultimately win in the playoffs. Our list would be sorted much differently if we sorted teams just by projected wins.
In a nutshell, we believe that Performance Rankings are more than just opinion-based lists. Factors such as home field advantage and strength of schedule have to come into play as well if fans are going to get a real feel for how their team’s chances at success. This season we will add “Projected Win-Loss Records” to the RPM value when we publish our weekly rankings. This way readers will get a feel for relative quality from the RPM number as well as how it would appear to project to wins and losses.
(For more background on how the RPM shows itself in the Playoffs you may want to read an article we wrote during last year’s playoffs “NFL Playoff Upsets: What Upsets?”)
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