Summary:
Last season we worried about the impact the suspension of Big Ben Roethlisberger might have on the team. This season we wonder if the marriage of Roethlisberger might settle the quarterback such that he once again has a super season. Free agency and the draft did not seem to bolster the offense. So we took 5% off their offensive performance from 2010. They did draft Cameron Heyward a top defensive end with their first pick even though they are coming off a 2010 defensive performance that ranked 3rd in the league we upped their defensive performance by 5%, that would move them to 2nd this season.
With these adjustments the computer spat out a stunning 15-1 record for the Steelers. We expected the Steelers to be good but this seemed extreme to us and we have to believe their schedule played a bit of a role. Their 2011 schedule is ranked 27th by the classic method and 30th by the PossessionPoints stat. This will be a very interesting year in Pittsburgh and the Ravens will have to be very good to keep up.
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| 2011 Steelers Game by Game Projection |
There are more teams this season with what we consider inflated win projections and the Steelers are one that the humans in the office feel may well have trouble getting to the projected win total. So upside, we don’t think so. For fun we decided to see what it would take to achieve perfection, no change in the offense didn’t do it, it took a 5% improvement before the numbers flipped to 16-0. Don’t hold your breath Steelers fans waiting for this to happen.
How they could falter:
If the unexpected were to happen and the Steelers’ offensive performance declines by 10% and their defense falls by 20%, their projected record only fell to 11-5 and they still make the playoffs. Not bad when both units could perform worse than they did last year buy significant numbers and they would still make the playoffs. The Steelers appear to still have a very solid base to be working from and we would be surprised to not see them in the playoffs.
Biggest Question Marks:
Will the Achilles injury to Polamalu continue to nag the defensive star limiting his effectiveness? Troy suffered a slight tear of the Achilles last year and it is sited as the reason for him missing some early practices this preseason. If Polamalu is missing or not the player he was in the past then the effectiveness of the Steelers defense could plummet. That is one of the reasons we took such a big hit on the Steelers defense for our worst case scenario. As you see from that as long as the offensive performance doesn’t also fall off too much the Steelers should be fine. Polamalu may be the difference between the Steelers winning the division or getting a wildcard but regardless his condition shouldn’t keep them out of the playoffs.
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