NFL Copycats: Is Smash Mouth Next?

There is no doubt that the four NFL teams with playoff byes have had much success on the ground which makes PossessionPoints.com
wonder if “Smash Mouth” tactics are going to spread around the league like the Wildcat formation did this season. For anyone who does not know, a Smash Mouth offense is a traditional offense where Tight Ends and Receivers are used as blockers. This tactic leaves open the possibility for some passing as the defense gets pulled to the line to stop the run. Smash Mouth is also known as “three yards and cloud of dust football” or Woody Hayes and Vince Lombardi-style football.

A year ago we thought that rushing football was on its way to being an afterthought with the success of teams like the Patriots and Colts who exploited their passing offense with Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. Teams such as the Saints and Texans tried to emulate the success of the Colts and Patriots by building a high-power offense making running and defense a lesser priority. Last year, defensive-dominated teams such as the Ravens and Bears also seemed to have an “off” year.

However, this year, many teams have switched back to running / defense-dominated philosophies. The Giants have two, 1,000-yard Rushing Backs in Brandon Jacobs (1089 yds) and Derrick Ward (1025 yards). They also have #7 overall defense. The Panthers have two quality Running Backs in DeAngelo Williams (1515 yards) and rookie Jonathan Stewart (836 yards). In the AFC, the Titans feature the duo of LenDale White (773 yards) and rookie Chris Johnson (1228 yards). The Steelers have long been thought of as a run first team. This reputation dates way back to the days of Chuck Noll, known as “Ground Chuck” who built his team on the running game. Unfortunately, this year the Steelers had a tough time keeping their Backs healthy which resulted in lower rushing numbers for their top Backs, Willie Parker (791 yards) and Mewelde Moore (588 yards). It is interesting to note that the teams who used their run to set up their pass game this season, all have first round playoff byes.

Will this be the next theme that is copied around the NFL? Is the firing of the 49ers’ Mike Martz, who in his time with the Rams was known as the “The Father of the Greatest Show on Turf”, a sign of things to come? Martz was known for his complicated passing tactics, but when the defense-oriented Mike Singletary came on as 49ers head coach, the styling of Martz became an albatross around the 49ers neck. Is this why Bill Cowher, who followed the philosophy of Chuck Noll in Pittsburgh, is the hot commodity this week for teams seeking out new coaches?

For this season, the Colts, Eagles and Cardinals would appear to be the teams carrying the “high flying” reputations into the Playoffs. But the Colts have always had a quality back as a compliment to their pass, be it Edgerrin James in years past or Joseph Addai today. The Eagles are best when Brian Westbrook is healthy and can be both runner and receiver in what is usually a pass dominated offense. We expect these teams will continue their aerial assaults forward into 2009, but will their high flying attacks get more grounded?

Watching coaching changes is one way to see if philosophy around the league is shifting; watching the draft is another. Looking at the top prospects such as Chris (Beanie) Wells of Ohio State or Knowshan Moreno of University of Georgia might not give a hint as to coaches’ philosophy since these players would go early in the draft no matter what, but seeing where the next wave of Running Backs go in the draft is another story. Where will LeSean McCoy (Pitt) and Jevon Ringer (Michigan St.) go? Further evidence of a philosophy shift would be apparent if teams look to the sub division schools for Running Backs much like the Ravens did last year with Joe Flacco trying to get a QB. Will the stock of Rashad Jennings of Liberty University rise in the draft this year?

We ask a lot of questions at PossessionPoints.com because we are always searching and checking for stats that produce winners. Our flagship stat, the PossessionPoint, has time of possession as a key component, and time of possession helped dramatically the high flying Patriots in 2007 becoming the top team. However, Defense plays an important role in our Performance Measure which explains why the Eagles, Giants, Steelers, Ravens and Vikings were our top 5 in 2008. In fact, what we like best about our PossessionPoints stat, is that it does not favor an pass offensive strategy or defense-oriented strategy. Instead, it measures execution and success.

The 2009 season will be an education for all fans. We might watch teams known for their offensive skills suddenly face the challenges of making defense their number one priority. Look at the Houston Texans who this week fired their Defensive Coordinator and two other members of the defensive coaching staff. There is a change in the wind and that change may be on the ground and not in the air.

Saints: Number One Offense – So What!

If you watch the Saints vs. Lions game, no doubt you will hear these words that have been spoken all year: the Saints have the number one Offense in the NFL. Well, this is true if you measure Offensive effectiveness in the traditional way as total yards or points per game. If the Saints are the number one Offense in the League, then it is no surprise that Drew Brees is also ranked the top passer in terms of yards. Well, the Saints may be ranked number one, and their QB may have the admiration of every sports announcer in the world, but guess what? It does not matter because the Saints also have a 7-7 record which means they don’t get to go to any playoff games unless they go as spectators. How can this be?

Well, let’s examine the yards and points stats. This traditional analysis can easily be skewed by game situations. If you look at the Saints’ games this season, on the surface it seems as if the Saints lost a lot of close games. However, let’s look at some of their losses:

In Week 3: New Orleans fell behind 21-3. The Saints rebounded but finally lost 34-32 to the Broncos. Brees threw for 421 yards.

In Week 5: The Saints were down 20-10 in their game against the Vikings. They managed to stage a comeback and take the lead, but relinquished it again and lost 30-27. Brees had 330 yards passing.

In Week 7: The Saints lost 30-7 to the Panthers, and Brees still had 231 yards.

In Week 10: The Saints were down 27-6 at one point in their game against the Falcons. At the end, the Saints lost to the Falcons by a score of 34-20. In this game, there were two, late "so what" drives of 80 and 69 yards which made the game seem closer than it was. These “so what” points helped to pad Brees’ stats as well. He threw for a total of 422 yards.

In Week 13: The Saints were down 20-10 to the Bucs in the 4th quarter. Then, another late game rally allowed them to tie the game. Again, that rally was short lived, and the Saints could not hold on. They ended up losing by a score of 23-20. Brees still threw for 296 yards.

In Week 15: The Saints were down 21-7 to the Bears. Again, they took the lead but lost in OT by a score of 27-24. Brees had 232 yards.

Brees and the Saints piled up the yards this season even though they lost seven games. It might be safe to say that some of the yards the Saints posted were not due to a stellar Offense but rather due to their opponents’ Defense who may have relaxed a bit after securing large leads. The Saints are no different than any other team in that moving the ball or getting in the end zone may not be as difficult a task when they are on the losing end of a lopsided score. Games like week 3 and 10 illustrate this fact. The Saints were losing by large margins in both of these games, but Brees’ combined passing yardage in these games totaled 843 yards. His total passing yardage for this season so far is 4332.

Should we assume that New Orleans’ Defense should bear the blame for the Saints not making the playoffs? Well, their Defense is 20th in yards and 25th in scoring. The Defense must be the reason why New Orleans is left out of postseason play. Who could win with such a lackluster Defense, right?

Well, before we condemn the Defense, let’s go back to 2006 and look at the last time the Saints led the NFL in Offense. In that year, the Colts were third in Offense and their Defense ranked 21st in yards and 23rd in scoring. The Colts went 12-4 and won the Super Bowl. It seems winning with those kinds of Defensive stats is possible. By the way, that year the Saints’ Defense was ranked 11th and they went 10-6 and got to the NFC championship.

The difference between the Saints of 2008 and Colts of 2006 may boil down to this: the Colts’ Defense did not have impressive numbers because the Colts frequently had big leads which at times they surrendered thus allowing their opposition to pile up the stats. The Saints of 2008 have had some big games, but they have also had games in which they fell way behind forcing them into a rapid catch-up mode. In some of these games, the Saints actually did manage to crawl back into the game only to give up the ground they gained to lose.

So, we wonder: what is the advantage of being the number one team in yards and points if that team cannot win? As Herm Edwards said when he was Head Coach of the Jets “You play to win the game.” Stats without winning seem shallow. That is why PossessionPoints.com is always seeking significance in statistics. We constantly work on correlating stats to winning, and if we can’t correlate the stat to winning, we tend to not think that much of the stat.

NFL Big Games for Week 16

We are winding down and heading into the final two weeks of the regular NFL season. For some teams, this is their do-or-die week. This is also the week in both Conferences where home field advantage will most likely be determined by this week’s results. We are going to talk about these two games first.

In the NFC, the 11-3 Panthers travel to the Meadowlands and take on the 11-3 Giants. While both of these teams are certainly going to the playoffs, the Giants would like to do things a bit differently than they did last year and actually play their playoff games at home. The Panthers and the Giants both feature strong running attacks, so this should be a classic, old-school football game.

While the Panthers are building momentum, the Giants seem to be losing it as they have lost their last two games. New York definitely needs to turn on the heat if they want to experience the same euphoria in the playoffs that they felt last year.
In the AFC, the 11-3 Steelers travel to the 12-2 Titans. The Titans have had some serious injuries on their defensive line, and much like the Giants, Tennessee needs to bring back the passion they had in the earlier games of the season to carry them through the playoffs, and that might mean playing all the stars even though a playoff spot is secure.

Another big game is the 9-5 Ravens traveling to the 9-5 Cowboys. This inter-conference matchup may well mean that the loser does not make the playoffs. In the preseason, few expected the Ravens to get this far, but many considered the Cowboys to be a favorite for postseason play. However, the way the Ravens have played this year, hopes are high in Baltimore and beyond. Dallas has managed to sidestep their personal team turmoil to win last week and keep them alive, and they have to continue to pull together if they are going to go far in the playoffs or even make the playoffs.

The final two games we want to highlight are two of the games that have significance in the NFC wildcard race. The 9-5 Falcons travel to take on the NFC North-leading 9-5 Vikings. The Vikings could lose and still make the playoffs, but if the Falcons lose, they open the door for the Eagles to take their place in the playoffs.
The last game we want to talk about is the Eagles vs. the 7-7 Redskins in Washington. The Redskins have no chance to make the playoffs, but if they beat the Eagles, they will certainly put a damper or a soaking on the Philadelphia playoff bid.

Don’t be surprised to see non-playoff contenders happily play the role of spoiler to teams trying to get a spot in postseason play. Every year, a team with a good chance at the playoffs seems to lose their shot because of a spoiler team who wants to go out with a bang.

NFL Performance Rankings Week 15

Last week, we noted the obvious fact that the “Performance Rankings” of PossessionPoints.com are far different from the traditional opinion-based Power Rankings that you read about in many other places. For proof of this, you need to look no further than the number 1 spot on our Rankings, which is held by the Philadelphia Eagles for the second week in a row. How can this be when the Eagles have an uphill fight just to make the playoffs? Well, we would like to take a little time this week to explain how the Eagles can occupy this coveted spot.

At PossessionPoints.com, we color code a team’s Offensive, Defensive and Net performances (the difference between the Offensive and Defensive performances). We use Green to denote “good” performances; Yellow to symbolize “average” performances; and Red to signal “poor” performances. The colors change at specific values, and we correlate a winning percentage to each of these values. For instance a “Green” Offensive performance wins about 75% of the time (this is based on the data we have kept over the past 3 seasons.) A “Green” Defensive Performance wins over 85% of the time while a “Green” Net wins over 90% of the time. Our Performance Rankings (Relative Performance Measure – RPM) are based on the Net measure which as we say correlates over 90% of the time to winning in individual games.

So, how did a team that has only won 57% of their games wind up with an average Net that is Green? Looking at Philadelphia’s individual games is the easiest way to explain this. In their losses, the Eagles’ Offense and Defense took turns causing them to lose. The Eagles had three ‘Red’ Defensive performances which resulted in losses for all three of these games. A typical team will win 25% of the Red performances. The Eagles also had two Red Offensive performances and lost one of these games and tied one of these games. A typical team will win 15% of these Red Offensive performances. What is unique about the Eagles is that none of their poor Offensive and Defensive performances occurred in the same games. Compare this to the Giants who have had six Red Defensive performances and lost only three of these games. In the games they won, their Offense picked up the slack. In the three games the Giants lost, they recorded their only three Red Offensive performances of the year.

So, most “good” teams will on occasion have a bad game on both sides of the ball and lose those games. The Eagles have not shared that pattern. Their “bad” performances on Offense and Defense have occurred in different games causing them to pile up the losses. When they had a Red Offensive performance, their Defense was Green in the game they tied and Yellow in the game they lost. Statistically, both a Green and Yellow Defensive performance should have been able to overcome the Red Offense. The Eagles failed to do that.

In their three Red Defensive Performance games, the Eagles had two Green Offensive performances and one Yellow Offensive performance. Again, they lost all three of these games which other teams would have turned into wins.

We have spent a lot of time explaining the Eagles this week, so we will just quickly summarize the other top five teams on our Performance Chart: The Vikings, Ravens, Steelers and Giants round out the top 5.



On to the bottom 5. It is no surprise to find Cincinnati in our bottom 5 at number 30 since by our RPM measure they have had the toughest schedule in the league. Next week, we are going to talk about how each team’s strength of schedule has affected their performances this season.
The other 4 teams in our bottom 5 are the Rams, Lions, Seahawks and Raiders. These teams’ schedules have been no picnic either.

A final note, if the Eagles do manage to make the playoffs, the other teams in the NFL better take them seriously because they do have the capability to beat any team in the NFL if all their units show up to play.

The 4th Down Gamble – Think Twice

Pure statistics say that a team’s success rate to convert a 4th down to a 1st down or a score is about 50% when that 4th down is for short yardage. However, NFL teams “go for it” only about 20% of the time. A few coaches such as Bill Belichick and Jack Del Rio have developed a “reputation” as mavericks who toss caution to the wind and take the chance on 4th down more often than their coaching colleagues. While these coaches may opt to keep their punting teams off the field more frequently, their decision to go on 4th down is still below 50 percent. Why?

Well, PossessionPoints.com loves stats, and in fact, our business was built on the premise that our in-game stat can help a coach evaluate when it is a good time to take that 50-50 risk. But we are not in the same camp as some of the other stat analysts who think coaches should be going for it on 4th down more often. Stats can help determine when it is a good time to take a chance, but stats do not capture the major emotional factor in football that occurs when two teams are on the line trying to prevent or achieve that all important and possibly game-turning 1st down play.

When a team “goes for it” on 4th down, play-by-play announcers usually offer comments such as “The coach is showing great confidence in his Offense keeping them out there to pick up those one or two yards.” That may be a true analysis, but anyone who has ever played a competitive sport knows that it is the Defense who makes or breaks these momentous plays. When a coach keeps the Offense out on the field, he is sending a clear message to the opposing Defense that says, “We do not respect your ability to stop us.” Some Defenses may take this stance as a challenge; others see it as an insult. Either way, a Defense is going to be fired up with adrenaline pumping, and they will do whatever it takes to stop a 4th down conversion especially if that conversion will result in a touchdown.

Let us examine some recent games where a 4th down conversion came into play. In this season’s Minnesota – Chicago game in week 13, the Bears held a 7-3 lead in the first half and were down on the Minnesota goal line. The Bears had 3rd and goal at the one-yard line but were unsuccessful at getting in the end zone. On 4th and 1, Coach Lovie Smith had two options at his disposal. He could have kicked a field goal (a distance shorter than an extra point where the success rate this year has exceeded 99%) to take a 7 point lead or go for the touchdown and an 11 point lead. A logical person might have argued “What is the worst scenario that could happen in this situation?” The answer: the Bears fail in their attempt to score the touchdown, and the Vikings get the ball in the worst possible field position for them at their own one-yard line. Well, Smith chose to forego the three almost certain points and opt for a touchdown play. Unfortunately, for Chicago, the Vikings’ pride did not share his enthusiasm for a touchdown. Instead, they showed off some of their own talent and stopped the Bears in their tracks.

Okay, how bad could this be? The Bears surmised they would return the Defensive favor and possibly force the Vikings into a Safety and take the two points. After all, that is almost a field goal – right?
With this somewhat dire situation facing the Vikings’ Offense, most coaches might have decided to put in their short yardage Offense and try to move the ball off the goal line into calmer waters. However, the Vikings decided to let their Offense feed off the adrenaline rush of their Defense and instead called for a deep sideline pass. The Receiver managed to get behind the Defender, and lo and behold caught the Quarterback’s pass and sprinted for a 99-yard touchdown. Suddenly, in two plays, the game went from what could have been a certain Bears 10-3 lead to a Vikings 10-7 lead. The Vikings never looked back and went on to trounce the Bears 34-14.

This same week, the Jags found themselves behind in a game and their prospects looked bleak. Jacksonville tried not once, but twice on the same drive, to convert a 4th down. It was early in the 4th quarter, and the Jags were down 16-3, so the time seemed right to gamble. The Jags pushed their luck and succeeded in their first attempt which was at the Texans’ 33-yard line, a plausible field goal distance. They gave up three points, but they had a chance to move the ball further toward a seven-point score. However, that 1st down victory was short lived at best. Within seconds, the Jags found themselves in the same 50-50, 4th down scenario on the Texans’ five-yard line. Now, here the Jags have a situation where you have thrown down the gauntlet to your opponents and came out the victor once. When they threw down that gauntlet a second time, The Texans’ pride charged forward, and this emotional surge paid off. Jacksonville failed to convert the second 4th down again which was at a field position that was a virtual certainty for a field goal. Would a field goal have changed the fate of the Jaguars? Who knows? But a field goal might have taken the wind out of the sails of the Texans and made this game closer.

Next time you are watching a game and you want a coach to just “Go For It” and forego his “over conservative” approach, think of these two situations. PossessionPoints.com absolutely concurs that sometimes a coach does “need to” go for it on 4th down. The original PossessionPoints stat was founded as a tool to help coaches make that 4th and short decision. It came into existence because of a late game 4th down punt decision where the team that punted (the Eagles in the 2006 playoff game against the Saints) never got the ball back and lost the game. That was a “need to” situation. In general, we would say taking the risk on 4th down should be more along the lines of the traditional approach have long practiced: take the chance only when absolutely necessary.

NFL Big Games Week 15

There are several big games this week, and hopefully, they will be good games to watch. The first one that PossessionPoints.com wants to highlight is a battle for the AFC North. The 10-3 Steelers are taking on the 9-4 Ravens. While neither of these teams is likely to miss the playoffs, the winner of this game would be in prime position to win the Division and perhaps earn a first-round bye.

The next game on the highlight list is the game between the top two teams in the NFC East. The 11-2 Giants, who have already locked up the Division, will travel to Dallas to take on the 8-5 Cowboys. Obviously, the Cowboys need this game more than the Giants. The Giants are all but certain to have a first-round bye while the Cowboys are not even guaranteed a playoff spot yet. To make matters more dire for the Cowboys, the 7-5-1 are very close on their heels at only a half-game behind. Another team wanting that last wildcard spot are the 8-5 Falcons.

This brings us to our third big game which features the Falcons who are hosting their Division rivals, the 9-4 Bucs. The Bucs are fresh off a Monday night loss to the Carolina Panthers which puts them one game behind the Panthers for the Division but still one game ahead of everyone else in the Conference for a wildcard spot. The Bucs do not want to lose this cushion.

The final big game for this week features two teams battling to keep their somewhat slim playoff chances alive. The 7-6 Bears are hosting the 7-6 Saints. The loser of this game can begin thinking about their draft strategy and can forget about their playoff strategy. The winner of this game still needs a great deal of help to make the playoffs, but their hopes will most likely still be alive after this week is over.

It is becoming crunch time and the NFL excitement is growing. We hope you all enjoy this week’s games!

NFL Performance Rankings Week 14

One glance at our Chart and you will know that our rankings are much different than the traditional Power Rankings. Why is this? Unlike other Charts, our Chart contains no opinion or subjective criteria. Our Performance Rankings are based solely on our PossessionPoints.com in-game statistic.

Number One on our list are the Philadelphia Eagles. Yes, we see your jaw dropping and we feel your disbelief. Trust us, if there were any subjectivity in our Chart, the Eagles would not be sitting at Number One. However, with that said, we have to give the Eagles their due. They have performed in their games well enough to win more than their record would indicate. As proof of the fact that they are good enough to beat anyone in the NFL, the Eagles beat the team last week that was Number One in our Chart and most Performance Charts. They beat the New York Giants in New York. While the score may have appeared close, the Eagles actually dominated the Giants on both side of the ball. The Eagles still have an uphill battle to get into the playoffs, but if they are able to get there, they could be a tough team to beat.

A quick run through of the top five behind the Eagles: The Giants who slipped to Number Two; the Ravens at Number Three; the Vikings at Number Four; and the Steelers at Number Five.



It is worthy to note as well that the Titans have moved a bit up the Chart from Number Eight last week to Number Six this week. Although the Titans have a 12-1 record, they have not been able to amass the PossessionPoints needed to catapult them into the Top Five, but they are close.

Jumping down to the bottom Five are teams that have held onto these positions for a while and are all mathematically eliminated from playoff spots. At Number 28 in our Chart are the 3-10 Raiders; at 29 are the 0-13 Lions who have flirted with the possibility of getting their first win in the past few weeks; at Number 30 are the 2-11 Seahawks; at 31 are the 1-11-1 Bengals and at 32 are the 2-11 Rams.

NFL Big Games for Week 14

This week there are three games PossessionPoints.com wishes to highlight. The biggest game in our viewpoint is the Monday night game between the Bucs and Panthers. While it looks as if both of these teams will make the playoffs, this game could well decide who wins the NFC South Division as both of these teams are now tied with a record of 9-3. The winner of this Division will also most likely get a first round bye, and the loser most likely a wildcard spot

The second big game this week is between the Giants and the Eagles at the Meadowlands. This game is truly the Eagles’ last shot to get themselves back into playoff contention. We think the lights are all but out for Philadelphia this season, but a loss here could mathematically eliminate them. The Giants have little to gain with a win this week as they have a virtual lock on the Division and a first round bye. So, obviously this game is more important for the Eagles.

The third big game is an interconference game between the Cowboys and Steelers as both these teams have winning records and are in tight races for playoff spots. The Cowboys want to maintain or enhance their chances of obtaining a wildcard spot while the Steelers look to hold on to their narrow one-game lead over the Ravens.

These are three strong contests this week with playoff implications for all involved. We will see which teams rise to the occasion and which teams fold like a bad poker hand.

NFL Performance Rankings Week 13

Three quarters of the season is done and the best teams are truly starting to show themselves in the top of the Performance Rankings. We feel confident that eight of the Top Ten teams in the PossessionPoints.com Performance Rankings will make the playoffs. There is still plenty of time for the two teams, who we think will not make the playoffs, to fall out of our Top Ten. We will talk about these two teams later.

The number one RPM team is the same team that has held the top spot for the last few weeks. Despite their off field troubles, the New York Giants have kept their spot because they had little trouble controlling their game against their Division rivals, the Redskins.

The Jets hold the same number two position as last week even though they appeared to be drunk on their own success in their loss to the Broncos. The Steelers and Ravens of the AFC North come in at numbers three and four this week. We think both of these teams will make the playoffs with one winning the Division and one most likely getting a wildcard berth.

At number five is one of our Top Ten teams that we do not think will make the playoffs. The Philadelphia Eagles have once again proved that they are one of the most underperforming teams in the NFL. This week, they dismantled the playoff-bound Cardinals and proved that they have the ability to beat anyone if they show up to play. It is almost inconceivable that in six of their games this season, Philadelphia played down to their competition and either lost or tied. Even if the Eagles beat the number one ranked Giants this week, we do not think it will help their chances of making the playoffs which are slim at best. The other playoff-bound teams in the Top Ten include the Vikings, Titans, Cardinals and Bucs. The other team in the Top Ten that we do not expect to make the playoffs is the Packers. Coming off of last year’s NFC Championship game, the Packers have turned out to be much like the Eagles levying disappointment upon their fans.



In the bottom five are teams who have absolutely no shot in making the playoffs especially since they only have eight victories between them this season. At the 28th spot are the 3-9 Raiders. Coming in at 29 are the 0-12 Lions. The Seahawks hold on to the number 30 spot with a record of 2-10. The Rams, also with a 2-10 record, take the 31 spot while the Bengals come in at the very bottom with a 1-10 record. We would like to point out that only 3 PossessionPoints separate the number 29 team from the number 32 teams. In other words, the bottom five are all pitiful. The Lions have a -57 RPM while the Bengals have a -60.

Once again, we stress that the PossessionPoints Performance Rankings are based on our in-game mathematical stat, and no subjective or emotional criteria are factored into our standings. This is the reason why non playoff-bound teams are in our Top Ten. Our rankings easily recognize and point out the biggest underperformers in the League

Big Games For Week 13

Thanksgiving Day is traditionally a day of football, but this year’s games are mostly turkeys. Certainly the early games, the Titans vs. Lions and Seahawks vs Cowboys have no playoff implications unless by some miracle the Seahawks (a 12.5-point underdog) beat the Cowboys.

PossessionPoints.com recognizes that there is a fine line between the best and worst in the NFL. On any given day, one of the worst teams could well win, and by PossessionPoints Performance Rankings both the Seahawks and Lions are among the bottom five teams. So, it would not be out of reach for one of these teams to stage the upset of the day.

The first game that counts this week is the Giants vs. Redskins. The Redskins need this game more than the Giants as the Redskins are three games behind the Giants. Washington is presently tied with the Cowboys at 7-4, so a win is essential for them to stay as a prime contender for a wildcard spot.

Our second big game is the Bears vs. Vikings. This game is between the two teams tied atop the NFC North at 6-5. This Division will be won by either one of these teams or the Packers, and winning the Division is probably the only way into the playoffs.

The third big game is the Saints vs. Bucs. The Saints are 6-5 and Bucs are 8-3. The rest of the teams in this Division all have winning records as well. There very well might be a wildcard out of this Division, but the Saints cannot finish fourth and expect to make the playoffs with or without a wildcard.

Finally, the last big game is between the Steelers and Patriots. The Steelers find themselves one game up on the Ravens while the Patriots are one game behind the Jets. Both teams need this win to further their quest for a playoff berth.

NFL Performance Rankings Week 12

New York, New York – it’s a hell of a town, and for the first time in the history of PossessionPoints.com, two NY teams are number 1 and number 2 in our Performance Rankings.

The Jets moved up in our Performance Rankings not only because they won their game against the Titans but because of how they won the game. The Jets also earned our Top Dog of the Week Spot in our weekly newsletter (Available for free on our site). Conversely, this one loss forced the Titans to tumble from number 4 on our charts all the way down to number 11. This tumble proves that win-loss records are not, as many football experts would have you believe, the only criteria in ranking football teams. In fact, PossessionPoints has never put the Titans as number 1 in our rankings because we include only mathematical factors from our in-game statistic and no emotional or subjective criteria. Although they were always highly ranked, the Titans did not warrant the number 1 spot according to the math. In the other matchups between top-performing teams, the Giants beat the Cardinals, but the Cardinals played well in this game. Because of their performance in this close contest, the Cardinals dropped only one position from number 2 to number 3. The Giants’ win allows them to continue to hold the number 1 spot which they have owned for most of the season.



This week, moving up the chart are teams that have hit some road bumps, but appear now to have found their stride. The Patriots moved from 13 to 10 and the Steelers jumped from number 9 to number 4. New England’s Matt Cassel has learned his Offense quickly and continues to improve each week. The Steelers have had Running Back injury issues, but with the return of Willie Parker, the Steelers look like the Steelers of Old.

We are aware that due to the Colts’ 7-4 record, many experts would like to place Indianapolis a lot higher in Rankings than they fall on our charts. In PossessionPoints, the Colts do not appear higher because of their early season performances which included a few miraculous wins as well as their four losses. As their game performance improves, so will their placement on our charts, but they have a way to go to get into the positive zone in PossessionPoints.

The Colts have climbed out of the bottom five, so now this group consists of teams with poor records none of which have any chance of making the playoffs. Worst among this group are the 2-9 Rams who sit at 32; the 1-9 Bengals who come in at 31; the 2-9Seahawks who own the 30th spot; the Chiefs who sit at number 29 with a 1-10 record; and the Lions, who despite being 0-11, are at 28. The Lions have shown some signs of life in the last few weeks. They have built early leads but mistakes have caused them to give up those leads. These early game performances account for their being the best of the worst in the bottom five. Maybe Thanksgiving will allow the Lions to redeem themselves with a win. Although playing the Titans, this may seem like a tall order.

Young Guns vs. Old Dogs: Which Quarterbacks gain Favor in the NFL?

The NFL has long been a copycat league. Once one team finds success; the rest follow suit. Witness the popularity of the Wildcat Offense this year. It started with the Dolphins vs. the Patriots and soon became a gimmick that all teams used. If many teams are looking to their rivals for coaching trends, we have to wonder about the Quarterbacks in this league. Who is most in demand: the young guns or the old dogs?

We have all been inundated with Brett Favre stories and stats. Let’s face it: according to the media, Favre is the Miracle Man at the ripe old age of 39. But is he? Since Favre has come back to play and prove that his experience is still a valuable asset, other teams have come to rely on QBs of similar “advanced” age. Is this the NFL’s newest trend?

The Arizona Cardinals have the next most famous elder statesmen at the helm. At 37, Kurt Warner is once again the number one QB taking over for the highly touted young USC gun, Matt Leinert. While Warner has said in the past he knew he had more yet to offer, he wasn’t sure if a number one QB spot was in the cards. For Arizona, the switch to Warner has proved to be more than a blessing. Warner has not only led his team to the top spot in their Division, but the top spot with a considerable cushion.

We, at PossessionPoints.com,would be remiss if we overlooked two more seasoned QBs who have taken charge of most likely playoff – bound teams. First, is Kerry Collins who is 36 this season and second is Jeff Garcia of the Bucs who is 38. These two moved from backup status to starter after injuries and problems with younger QBs. Collins took over for Vince Young, supposedly the future of the Titans and has yet to lose while Garcia took over for Brian Griese, who while not exactly a young gun, was nonetheless considered the Bucs’ starter. One has to wonder if Garcia would have been the Dolphins’ QB had the Bucs succeeded in getting Favre instead of the Jets.

On the other side of the argument is the success that two rookies are having in the League this year. Conventional wisdom in the NFL has always been that young QBs need to sit and learn in order to become a successful leader of the team. If a team was forced to use a rookie QB as a starter, that team usually resigned itself to a losing or mediocre season. This year, two NFL teams threw caution to the wind and started Joe Flacco in Baltimore and Matt Ryan in Atlanta. While NFL experts viewed Ryan as the future of the beleaguered Falcons who thought they had nothing to lose by starting this season, Flacco was seen as a probable back-up behind both Kyle Boller and second-year man, Troy Smith. Injuries to Boller and a weird unrelenting viral infection to Smith, forced Flacco into the limelight. Both rookies have led their teams into some degree of surprising success in that both teams have a shot at the playoffs.

So, which trend might NFL teams follow after this season? If we take the hint from Minnesota, we might say that experience counts more. When Tavaris Jackson began to struggle this season, The Vikings had a choice in his replacement. On their roster, they had an “old” 37-year-old journeyman QB in Gus Frerotte and a rookie from USC, the football powerhouse, John David Booty. In a year when Quarterbacks from Boston College and University of Delaware are making their marks, you would think a rookie from USC would be ushered in easily. But the Vikings chose experience and have had great success.

When this season is done, and the Lombardi Trophy is handed out, it might well be which QB is holding the trophy that determines which direction teams will go next season. If a Manning is holding that trophy - well, all bets are off!

NFL Big Games for Week 12

It is crunch time in the NFL, and time for the teams who want to make the playoffs to either step up or pack up. We believe that there are no less than five big games of the 16 contests to be played this week.

The first on the PossessionPoints.com Big Game list is the Jets visiting the undefeated Titans. This game features two of the “elder statesmen” of the Quarterback position (We will have more on QBs in a separate article this weekend). Anyone following the NFL this year is waiting to see if any chinks exist in the Titans’ armor. The Jets and Titans are the number 4 and Number 5 teams in our RPM measure as well as the current top-rated teams in the AFC. While the Titans’ lead in their division appears secure, the Jets have a slight and vulnerable 1-game lead in their division. From that point of view, we would say that this game is bigger for the Jets than the Titans. However, the Titans would like to pick up where the Patriots left off last season and pave that perfect path to the Super Bowl.

Our second big game features the two teams that are nipping at the heels of the Jets in the AFC East: the Patriots and the Dolphins in Miami. The Patriots are looking to avenge an earlier one-sided loss to the Dolphins this season. These two teams appear to be playoff caliber as they are both in the top half of our RPM standings. The winner of this game will see their playoff hopes rise while the loser will find a very tough road ahead to the playoffs. This game is equally important for both teams.

The third big game is an inter-conference game as the Eagles visit the Ravens. The Eagles and Ravens are both in our top ten in our RPM, but neither of them are currently leading their divisions. Both teams have four losses and certainly need every win they can muster if they want to advance to the playoffs. In the preseason, few expected the Ravens to be a potential playoff contender, while many expected the Eagles to go far. Over the last few weeks, their positions have switched. The Eagles need to rebound to their early season form if they hope to keep their slim playoff hopes alive while the Ravens possess a chance of attaining a playoff spot by earning a wildcard spot or perhaps by overtaking the Steelers who are one game ahead of them in the Division.

Our next big game features two AFC teams fighting for their playoff lives. The Colts have seemed to have found their voice and legs and are taking their game on the road to San Diego to face the Chargers who have been inconsistent at best. The Chargers at 4-6 are probably not looking at a wildcard. They need to overtake the Broncos who are two games ahead of them in their Division. The Colts do have a shot at a wildcard and virtually no shot at their Division Title as they are four games behind the Titans. This contest is extremely important for both teams and definitely an example of where the winner steps up and the loser packs up.

Finally, we want to talk about the game where our Number 1 RPM team meets our Number 2 RPM team. If the BCS could only get so lucky with these stats, their lives would be easier. Neither one of these teams are looking at packing up, but the winner of this game may well identify who the “class” of the NFC really is. Should the Cardinals win, there is a strong possibility that the Cardinals and Giants could both earn first-round byes in the playoffs. The Panthers, who are currently at 8-2, are also looking at that possibility. We would view this as a bigger game for the Cardinals both for their own confidence and as a way to legitimize themselves as a power team in the NFC. For some reason, many experts have downplayed the Cardinals’ success this season and are insistent upon owing that success to playing in a very weak division.

Enjoy the games! This is going to be an exciting, important and decisive week.

NFL Performance Rankings Week 11

This week in the NFL, the Giants hold on to their number 1 position, and the Cardinals are biting at their heels at number 2. These two teams are the only two teams with a Green RPM in the PossessionPoints.com Performance Charts. However, this week something big has got to happen since the Giants play the Cardinals in Arizona. There will be more on this game in our Big Games of the Week Column.

We are quite surprised with the team that is in the Number 3 position: The Philadelphia Eagles. At 5-4-1, they are obviously above .500, but their performance has proved lackluster at best. We have to admit that the Eagles have always been the team to befuddle our measures and, of course, their fans with their game performances both on the win and loss side. In 2006, there were 7 games where a team with a Green Sweep lost. The Eagles were the winners in three of those odds-defying games which is why we are not too shocked to see their RPM remain high while their record falters. One day, we and the fans of Philadelphia will figure out this team. On another note, the Eagles will also be mentioned in our Big Games column as well.

As you can see from the Red and Green on the right side of the chart, there was a great deal of movement by teams in the middle of the pack. Because of their one-sided win which earned them our Top Dog Performance of the Week, the Packers have re-established themselves as the favorite to win the NFC North in our view despite the fact that it is currently a three-way tie with the Vikings and Bears.



The Colts still remain in the bottom half of the RPM, but they are steadily making progress and have climbed out of our RPM Red zone. They can thank their lucky wins in the earlier part of their season which helped them stay in contention for a playoff spot. If they continue to play with a positive RPM in this half of the season, they certainly can make the playoffs although it will be a tough road at best. There are three other teams who like the Colts have a 6-4 record and who are vying for a playoff berth: the Patriots, Dolphins and Ravens.

At this time, we would also like to pronounce the death of the playoff hopes of the teams who are all Red at the bottom of our RPM chart. These teams include the Chiefs in the 27th spot with a 1-9 record; the Lions who are at 28 with a 0-10 record; the 29th place Raiders at 2-8; the Bengals with a 1-8-1 record followed by the Seahawks and Rams, both with a 2-8 record.

NFL Big Games for Week 11

This week, one of the biggest games is the very first one on the schedule. The Thursday night game between the Jets and Patriots offer serious repercussions. Right now, the Jets and Patriots are tied atop the AFC East at 6-3. While we forecast an extremely close game,PossessionPoints.com is giving the edge to the home Patriots. Even with this win, our glimpse into the future would have both the Jets and Patriots winding up their seasons at 11-5. Therefore, a win here by the Jets, could truly put them in the driver seat for their Division.

Another important contest is between the NY Giants and the Baltimore Ravens. While this game may not dictate the playoff future of either the Giants or the Ravens, it does help identify if one or both teams represent the “cream of the crop” or a Super Bowl contender. As of now, the Giants are our number 1 team in our Performance Rankings while the Ravens hold the number 5 spot. These teams are the highest ranked teams to be playing each other this week.

The last big game we want to highlight may not seem that big, but it pits the 6-3 Arizona Cardinals against the 2-7 Seattle Seahawks. We mention this game because the Cardinals are emerging as a top-flight team this season, while the Seahawks, who were the class of this Division in recent years, have fallen. The Seahawks are traditionally very tough at home, so the Cardinals get the chance to prove themselves in what may be their toughest remaining Division game.

NFL Performance Rankings Week 10

This week, the Giants continue to hold on to their number 1 position. With their win over the Philadelphia Eagles, the Giants now have a full two-game lead in the NFC East. The number 2 team on the PossessionPoints.com Performance Rankings list will be a surprise to most people: The Arizona Cardinals. We will not get much of an argument over our number 3 team, the 9-0 Titans - except from those Tennessee fans who insist they should be at number 1. To be honest, the difference between the three top teams is not that great, and all three are in the PossessionPoints.com “Green” zone. When a team makes it “Green” in a single game, they win more than 90 percent of the time. The Performance Rankings are based on the season average so far, so to be “Green” in the Performance Rankings designates high-quality performance.

This week, we would like to spend some time examining the top three teams. The Cardinals have been near the top of our rankings all season including Week 5 when they held the number 2 spot with a 3-2 record. Since that time, their record has improved to 6-3. During Week 5, the Giants were still number 1 with a 4-0 record, and the Titans earned the number 3 spot also with a 4-0 record. Keep in mind that our Performance Rankings are based solely on in-game statistical performance. Again we stress, we do not take into account any subjective or emotional factors; we do not even take into account wins and losses. Wins and losses are a natural byproduct of our Performance measure: winning teams do well and losing teams do poorly.

In Week 5, while the Cardinals had two losses and the Giants and Titans had none, there were seven one-loss teams that were ranked below the Cardinals. Since that point in time, only one of those teams, the Panthers, have had as good a winning percentage as the Cardinals with three more wins and one loss. There were two teams that have gone 2-2 since that time as well, and they are the Redskins and Steelers. The Cowboys, Bills and Broncos, who were all 4-1 at Week 5, have since gone 1-3 to have a total record of 5-4. You will now find these teams at our number 22, 23 and 24 positions in our Rankings. So, needless to say, we do not feel the least bit remorseful at ranking the Cardinals at the number 2 spot back in Week 5 or now.



Let’s have some fun and take a closer look at the past of the top three teams and what the road ahead may look like. The Cardinals’ past opponents have a combined record of 40 wins and 41 losses. Their past opponents’ combined Relative Performance Measure or RPM is a poor -87. Many may think that the poor performance of their opponents is the reason why the Cardinals have done so well on our chart, but if you accept that you must say the same is true for the Giants and Titans. The Giants’ past opponents have a combined record of 32-49 and a -67 RPM while the Titans’ past opponents have a 34-47 record and a -54 RPM. This demonstrates that the strength of the opponents that the Cardinals faced is on an even par with those of the Giants and Titans.

If we look into the future, the Cardinals’ future opponents have a combined record of 30-33 and an RPM of -28. The Giants’ have a tough road ahead as their future opponents have a combined record of 40-23 and a +174 RPM. The Titans should cruise into the playoffs as their future opponents have a record of 27-36 and a -30 RPM.
If the Giants hold their number 1 ranking throughout the second half of the season while facing such a challenging schedule, we will be truly impressed. We won’t be surprised to see them fall back some in the RPM. However, remember that last year they won the Super Bowl after going 10-6 in the regular season.

Just for fun, we did look at some “traditional” power rankings. One had the Cardinals at number 6 – unchanged from Week 9 and the other had the Cardinals at number 8– up from number 9 in Week 9. Hopefully, the Cardinals will look at the Performance Rankings of PossessionPoints.com and realize that their team is as good as the Rankings say they are. Confidence is a huge part of football, and can make or break winners.

Not to neglect the bottom 5, they consist of the same teams as last week in a slightly different order. At the bottom of our rankings at 32 are the 2-7 Rams preceded closely by the 0-9 Lions, the 2-7 Seahawks, the 1-8 Bengals and the 2-7 Raiders.

NFL Performance Rankings Week 9

This week, the Giants hold the top spot on PossessionPoints.com’s Performance Rankings. The Giants improved their record to 7-1 which helps them maintain their lone position as leader of the NFC East. In the number 2 spot are the 5-3 Philadelphia Eagles who vaulted from number 5 to second place because of their throttling of the Seahawks. The Cardinals remain the number 3 team at 5-3.

The Eagles and Cardinals are good examples of the uniqueness of the Performance Rankings of PossessionPoints.com. You will not find many power rankings placing these two teams above the 8-0 Titans. However, by virtue of their strong performances, the Eagles and Cardinals have earned their slots. The 8-0 Titans do hold the number 4 position. You will see in our chart that these teams are painted Green which highlights the fact that they have the highest RPMs in the NFL. Remember, PossessionPoints is based on our exclusive in-game statistic - not bias or opinion.

The Teams that are shaded Red depict a pretty hapless group. The Chart shows the 2-6Seahawks, the 1-7 Chiefs, the 0-8 Lions, the 1-8 Bengals, the 2-6 Raiders and the 2-6Rams.

In the middle of the pack or the Yellow zone, there was not a whole lot of movement; however, there were some teams that made strides. The Dolphins moved from 19 to 10 in our chart, and the Steelers jumped from 17 to 7. Dropping significantly were the Redskins who fell from 13 to 20. They also saw their RPM turn negative for the first time this year. Despite their 6-3 record, the Redskins must turn their performances around to maintain their place or gain ground in the NFC East.

Big NFL Games for Week 9

It is a big week for the NFC East and AFC North. The NFC East - leading Giants go up against their Division rivals, the Dallas Cowboys. Despite the Cowboys’ well-publicized struggles this season, their record is just one win less than the Giants. If they could pull out a victory against NY, they would draw even with them in the win column although they would still have one more loss. However, a Cowboy win would have a secondary effect as well. A Dallas’ victory could open the door for the Redskins to take sole possession of the NFC East lead.

Allow us to use the Redskins to segue into our next big game: The 6-2 Redskins against the NFC North – leading Steelers. At 5-2, the Steelers lead their Division by just one game over the Ravens. Pittsburgh needs this victory to maintain this lead.

The 4-3 Ravens are our third feature game. They will be playing the 3-4 Browns. Earlier this season it seemed the Browns were out of contention but with their recent wins, which include a big victory over the Giants, they have managed to bring their record up to 3-4. If they can beat the Ravens, they would pull even with them at 4-4. Should the Redskins beat the Steelers and the Browns beat the Ravens, the Ravens and Browns would both be one game behind the Steelers opening the playoff door for any team who gets hot later in the season except for - of course - the Bengals. For more information and updates, go to PossessionPoints.com.

NFL Performance Rankings Week 8

Once again, the Giants maintained their number one ranking according to by virtue of their victory over the Steelers last week. The unbeaten Titans, who are the top of many of the “Classic” opinion-based rankings, rose to number two. Remember,PossessionPoints.com uses only numbers and no emotion or opinion in the determination of our Relative Performance Rankings (RPMs). The Titans are within two RPM points of the NY Giants, so they are well within striking distance of the top spot. A bit further back – 12 points to be exact –is the number three team, the Cardinals. The number four team, the Houston Texans, are the only team without a winning record in our top five. Keep in mind that the Texans have won their last three games, so their performance numbers are on the rise. Holding on to fifth place are the 4-3 Eagles.

Teams that have made some big moves in the Rankings this week are the Ravens who jumped from 16th to eighth place because of their win over Oakland. The Steelers stumbled to 17th from seventh place because of their loss to the Giants.



We warned you last week that a big game could move teams in the middle of the pack a long way up and the down chart depending on how large the win or loss. There are still less than 20 RPMs that separate number eight from number 20. There are six teams in the Red which means they have lower than a -40 in RPMs, and it should come as no surprise that these teams have losing records. The best of this sordid bunch in 27th place is the 3-4 Colts. Most everyone, including the Colts, know that for them to win their Division would take almost a miracle at this point since they are four games behind the powerful Titans. The remainder of the hapless teams, with even less hope of making the playoffs, are the Raiders and Rams, who are both 2-5, followed by the winless Lions and Bengals and finally in last place the 1-6 Chiefs. .

NFL Performance Rankings for Week 7

This week, we welcome back the Giants to the top of our Performance Rankings, but this time around the Giants are not that far ahead of everyone else in the pack. The reason they are not the standout team as before is their run-in with Cleveland’s buzz saw two weeks ago. Because of that one-sided win, the Browns are still hanging around in the number 10 slot instead of wallowing in the bottom half of the rankings as you might expect with a 2-4 record.

The 4-2 Cardinals fell to the number 2 spot despite having a bye and the same RPM as last week. They fell due to the better performance of the Giants. The lone undefeated team, the Titans, are in the number 3 spot this week and for the first time, their RPM has moved above 40 which now puts them in the Green territory of the RPM of PossessionPoints.com

Rounding out the top five are two, three-win teams: Vikings and the Eagles. Some of the biggest moves this week were made by the Steelers who moved up from 11 to 7 courtesy of their 5-1 record. The Panthers jumped from 13 to 8 with a 5-2 record, and the Texans who have turned around the 0-4 start to a 2-4 record have catapulted from 23rd to 13th.

On the other side, the 3-4 Saints tumbled from number 3rd to number 12th because they cannot seem to score a touchdown. The 4-3 Bears also fell sharply from 7th to 17th. In the middle of the pack, there is the potential for a lot of movement as only 20 RPM points separate the number 9 team from the number 20 team.

The Detroit Lions lead our bottom five teams with a -68 RPM. The Chiefs are right above them with a -64 RPM while the Rams sit at number 30 with a -58. The 0-7 Bengals are at 29 with a -50 RPM ,and last but not least sitting at number 28 are the Seahawks with a -48 RPM.

Remember, as you look over these numbers, that there is no subjectivity, emotion or opinion contained in them. Our Performance Rankings are based solely on our in-game PossessionPoints statistic which is remarkably accurate in projecting winning teams. For more information, go to PossessionPoints.com.

NFL Big Games for Week 7

Last week, there were many dramatic games which produced some dicey situations when it comes to Division races. We would like to focus on three big games this week. Each game can mean the difference between an okay season and a playoff bid.

First up is the Saints vs. Panthers game. After six weeks, the Saints find themselves in last place in the NFC South. The NFC South is doing its best impression of the NFC East as this Division has three teams with 4-2 records followed by the Saints with a 3-3 record. When the 3-3 Saints face the 4-2 Panthers this week, New Orleans will have a chance to at least move into a tie with the Panthers. From a PossessionPoints.com Performance Ranking point of view, the Saints look like the team to win this Division, but this game will tell us if the Saints are a bunch of hype or the real thing.

The second game we want to highlight is the 3-3 Chargers traveling to play the 4-1 Bills. In Week 5, the Bills were our top RPM team. They spiraled downward to the middle of the pack with their significant loss to the Cardinals. While not truly a must win for either the Chargers or the Bills, a win for the Bills would allow Buffalo to hold on to the top spot in the AFC East. On the other hand, a win for the Chargers would keep San Diego on the heels of the Broncos or maybe even tie them if Denver should drop another game. A win would definitely give the Chargers an above .500 record for the first time this season.

The third game on our list for the week is a Black and Blue Division Classic: The Vikings visiting the Bears. Both teams are tied with the Packers on top of the NFC North with 3-3 records. The winner will at least have a share of the lead going into Week 8 while the loser will find themselves at least a game back. While this Division is battling each other to achieve .500 record, all their opponents in the NFC South and East already have at least a .500 record. What this means is that the way to the playoffs for an NFC North team is to win the Division as anything less than a Division Championship may not be enough to guarantee postseason play. So, any game when the Vikings, Packers or Bears play each other this season is a big game!

NFL Performance Rankings for Week 6

We at PossessionPoints.com are beginning to think the NFL has turned into college football because in the last two weeks the number one team has fallen. These teams were not just beaten; they were beaten badly. Two weeks ago, the Bills were undefeated and number one in our Performance Rankings. Alas, their loss was so one-sided that Buffalo tumbled all the down to Number 16. By virtue of their bye this week, the Bills managed to nudge themselves up a peg to 15.

Last week, the Giants were unbeaten and Number one in our Rankings. They looked like the Super Bowl Champs of last year. Then came Monday Night Football and a determined Browns team. This game also proved to be a one-sided mess for New York, and now the Giants find that they have slipped to Number two in the rankings. This may not sound like a big drop, but the separation between New York and the other NFL teams was substantial. This loss brought them back into the fold of the pack and on par with everyone else. They lost their spot on the pedestal. To underscore how one-sided the Browns’ victory was, it brought Cleveland from Number 20 all the way up to Number 10.

The Arizona Cardinals are our new Number one for the week. One thing we can guarantee is that the Cardinals will not get thumped like their predecessors who occupied the Number one spot before them because Arizona has a bye this week. However, watch out next week. One never knows what one week in the NFL brings.

We would like to highlight a number of teams with winning records whose RPMs(Relative Performance Measures) are negative which is to us a sign of trouble brewing. We have the Broncos and Falcons who are both 4-2. The Broncos have a -1.4 RPM while Atalnta has -1.9 RPM. The Broncos rank 20th in our Performance Charts and the Falcons sit 21st.

Our Top Five teams in our Performance Chart are the Cardinals, Giants, Saints, Titans-the lone unbeaten team, and the Eagles. Our bottom five teams are the Bengals, Lions, Raiders, Chiefs and Rams.

NFL Performance Rankings for Week 5

It doesn’t matter if you win or lose but how you win or lose that determines your Performance Rankings according to PossessionPoints.com. In Week 4, the Bills held the number one spot in our Performance Rankings, but their poor play caused Buffalo to tumble significantly down to the middle of our chart. The bye week comes just at the right time for the Bills who will have a chance to regroup and prepare for their Week 7 game against the Chargers. If it is any consolation, Bills’ fans, a lot of scoreboard points in the first half against San Diego may position Buffalo for the win as the Chargers do not seem to show signs of life in their games until the second half and sometimes that life comes too late.

The Arizona Cardinals are on the flip side of this situation in that they vaulted up the chart to Number 2 from number 11. These dramatic moves are rather rare in this part of the season. Teams tend not to move 9, 10 or 15 places when the season is already a quarter of the way through. If the Cardinals can avoid making mistakes, their potent offense can carry them not only into a Division championship but deep into the playoffs as well. However as the Houston Texans proved this week, mistakes will kill you.

The Texans are an interesting story in that despite their loss, they moved up the PossessionPoints.com Performance Rankings from 30th to 24th. We are not talking Super Bowl here for the Texans, but their jump does show how PossessionPoints captures performance and to some degree puts aside mistakes figuring that good teams will rise above their errors and eliminate them in the future.

The Top Five teams this week are the Giants, Cardinals, Vikings and the Panthers who are another new addition to the Top Five of our Performance Rankings. The Bottom Five are the Bengals, Colts, Chiefs, Lions and Rams. As you can see by the Colts’ rankings, we do not think much of lucky wins. A team needs to truly perform to move up in our Performance Rankings.

NFL Teams: Schedules vs. Performance

In the NFL, a common debate revolves around the role a schedule plays in determining if a team makes the playoffs or not. PossessionPoints.com
tends to side with those that say that there is so little difference between the best and worst teams in the NFL that the differences in schedule may not be all that important. However, over short stretches, schedules can distort how teams perform. Let’s look at past schedules first. Below are the rankings of the strength of teams’ opponents during the first quarter of the season (based on PossessionPoints Relative Performance Measure -RPM).



It is interesting to note that two undefeated teams, the Bills and the Giants, have had the easiest road so far while two winless teams, the Rams and Bengals, have had the hardest. That is easy to figure, right? Well, look at the Redskins and Panthers, they are 3-1 while having the 3rd and 4th toughest schedules so far from a PossessionPoints RPM point of view.

So, what about going forward? What do the teams’ schedules look like for the final three quarters of the season? Below is the chart showing how teams’ future schedules rank based on the RPM of their future opponents:



We found this chart extremely interesting in that the 4-0 Titans have the easiest schedule going forward. Either their opponents have to improve their performance immensely or they should have a relatively easy walk into the playoffs. The 2-2 Bears are also well positioned with the second easiest schedule. The road is toughest for the Giants, Eagles and, unfortunately, for the 1-3 Chiefs and the 1-3 Browns. The easiest future schedule of any NFC East team belongs to the Redskins whose future opponents RPM ranks 20th. The other NFC East teams are all in the top 5 of toughest schedules

NFL BIG GAMES FOR WEEK 5

No game is more important this week than the Redskins vs. Eagles. Despite the Eagles being a respectable 2-2 this season, they find themselves in almost a must-win situation at home this weekend. Here is why:

While the Eagles are only one game behind the Redskins and Cowboys, they are still in last place in the dominating NFC East. As we look forward through the rest of the season, we see that the Eagles’ future opponents have a current combined record of 25-19 and a percentage of .568 based on the first quarter results while the Washington Redskins’ future opponents have a current combined record of 19-25 and a percentage of .432. What does this mean? Based on these stats, the Eagles have the third toughest remaining schedule in the NFL while the Redskins have the fourth easiest schedule in the NFL. Many prognosticators, including PossessionPoints.com, had originally picked the Redskins to finish fourth. However, a win this week in Philadelphia would put Washington two games ahead of the Eagles and well on their way to better than a last place finish in the NFC East and maybe even a repeat appearance in the Playoffs. We know it is early, but the ramifications of this game are great indeed.

We will have more details about team schedules and where they all stand in a separate article tomorrow.

The next big game is the Colts at the Texans. The Colts are 1- 2 and find themselves in a very unusual situation. They are already three wins behind the Titans in their division. A loss in this game could not only seriously hurt their chances of winning their division but hamper their ability to make the playoffs as well. While it is true that the Titans have built their 4-0 record against competition that is only 3-12 this season, the remainder of their schedule does not look much more challenging as their future opponents’ record is only 17- 26 which gives the Titans the third easiest remaining schedule in the NFL. This indicates the Colts truly have their work cut out for them this season.

NFL Performance Rankings Week 4

This week, we have noticed the traditional media outlets moving up the Bills in their “Power Rankings” to number 3. They are catching on to what PossessionPoints.com sees. Last week, we had the Bills in the number 1 spot, and this week the Bills remain in that position. Rounding out the top 4 in our Performance Rankings are the Giants, Eagles, Titans and Chargers. Like the Bills, the Titans are 4-0, but they actually fell a bit in our Performance Rankings from 2nd down to 4th. It is also interesting to note that the Vikings who lost to the Titans also fell in our Performance Rankings from 3rd to 6th. As expected, this 2-3 matchup turned out to be a tough struggle which resulted in both teams falling in the Performance Rankings.

The other item to note in this week’s chart is all the Yellow. All but five teams are coated in Yellow. This demonstrates how competitive the league is this year with few teams standing out with Green performances.



One new feature we have added to our Performance Rankings is the “Ranked Last Week” Column. You can easily see teams that are moving up versus teams that are moving down. The teams moving up are in a Green background while the teams moving down are in a Red background.

We also want to draw your attention to one dramatic fall this week: The Cowboys who have fallen from 8th to 18th. Even when the Cowboys were undefeated and proclaimed as the top NFL team by all the “Power Rankings”, PossessionPoints recognized a weakness in their Defense. Last week, that weakness came through loud and clear with their defeat by the Redskins. Does this mean the Cowboys are finished? Absolutely not, but they need to shore up their Defense.

Rounding out the bottom five in our Performance Rankings are the Colts who hopefully used their bye week to figure out some way to improve their offense; the Chiefs; Texans; Lions (ditto the comment of the Colts); and the Rams who will have a new Coach on the sidelines next week which might help them climb out of the basement.

PossessionPoints.com’s Performance Ratings are unique because they are based on in-game stats that are present in each game every week. Not present in these performance ratings are any opinion and or subjective measure of any type.

NFL BIG GAMES FOR WEEK 4

This week, the big games feature Division rivalries where teams off to a surprising good start must prove their mettle against the expected favorites.

The first game on our list is the Ravens – Steelers. The 2-0 Ravens are playing in Pittsburgh against the 2-1 Steelers. The Steelers are hurting since losing their top Running Back Willie Parker to an injury. Also hurting but expected to play is Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger who took a beating from the Philadelphia Eagles last week.

The Ravens have become a surprise around the NFL as well. They were expected to continue their horrible 2007 season this year, but Baltimore looks more like the 2006strong defensive team that kept opposing offenses frustrated. The Ravens are a 7-point underdog, so it appears they do not have believers quite yet. A win this week would inspire fans and football pundits to give these Birds the respect they desire and deserve.

The other big game is the Redskins at the Cowboys. The Redskins are another team that has surprised the experts. Now 2-1, they must face their 3-0 Division rivals in Dallas. We are confident that the Redskins coaching staff is studying films of last week’s Dallas-Packer game to figure out what the Packers did to shut down Terrell Owens which is something that Washington has not been able to do since T.O has been a Cowboy. Most prognosticators have picked the Redskins to finish fourth in this Division. However, a win this week would throw many of these projections up in the air. Like the Ravens, the Redskins are a big underdog – an 11.5-point underdog to be exact. Based on the PossessionPoints.com Performance Rankings, we hold more hope for the Ravens than the Redskins. The Ravens are currently ranked 9th while the Steelers are ranked 15th. The Cowboys hold the 8th spot while the Redskins are ranked 20th.

NFL Performance Rankings Week 3

The top five Performance Rankings according to PossessionPoints.com for Week 3 are the Bills, Titans, Vikings, Eagles and Giants. If you are surprised to see the Bills take the top spot in the Performance Rankings, you are not alone. However, this is no fluke. The Bills have earned this top spot according to the PossessionPoints.com data. Other noteworthy and previously rare additions to the top five are the Titans and Vikings. This season is starting out as one surprise after another. These Performance Rankings are based on in-game statistics that measure the team’s offensive performance. These statistics take into account such elements as the scoring drive, the points scored and time of possession.

It is always interested to note who the bottom five teams are. These are the teams that need to shake things up a bit if they hope to make the playoffs. Jets’ fans may be disheartened to find their team in the bottom five especially with all the hope that surrounded the acquisition of Brett Favre as their new leader. While we are not the least bit surprised to see the Chiefs, Lions and Rams in the bottom five, we still harbor hopes for the Texans. We think this team has more talent than it has shown, and we expect to see improvement and some wins in the near future.

Perhaps, the biggest stunner in this week’s Performance Rankings is the position of the Indianapolis Colts who are just a hair out of the bottom five. Last season, it was almost impossible to bump the Colts out of the top 5 in the Performance Rankings. My, how quickly teams can fall!

Another surprise is that the undefeated Cowboys take the eighth spot. Many would have thought they would occupy one of the top five places, but tough games with the Eagles and the Packers brought down their performance measure a bit.

In the included chart, you will see each team, their win-loss record and the PossessionPoints measure of relative performance which is colored green, yellow or red. A green chart indicates a positive and strong team performance. A yellow chart indicates a mediocre to fair performance and a red chart screams, “Uh, oh. We are in trouble.”



These Performance Ratings are unique because they are based on in-game stats that are present in each game every week. Not present in these performance ratings are any opinion and or subjective measure of any type.

NFL Big Games for Week 3

This week, there are a couple of big games that warrant attention. Both of the ones we want to talk about involve teams that find themselves surprisingly 0-2 after the first two weeks of the season. This losing record makes their Week 3 matchups very important to their season survival.

First on the PossessionPoints.com Big Game List is the Seahawks vs. Rams. Who would have dreamed that the Rams would be talked about as contenders in a big game this season? Both these teams are 0-2, and while many fans aren’t surprised by the Rams’ situation, they are surprised that the Seahawks have dug themselves into such a big hole. If the Seahawks continue their downward spiral, they might as well start daydreaming about next season with new Coach Jim Mora because this season would have most likely slipped beyond their control. PossessionPoints.com doesn’t see the Seahawks losing to the Rams and neither does Las Vegas who has them as a 9.5 point favorite.

The Chargers and Jets are our next big game. Our hearts go out to the Chargers as they must feel snake bit after the first two games. They were two seconds and one referee’s whistle from being 2-0. Whatever the circumstances, the Chargers are in need of a win badly. However, they are facing a team that the Broadcasters have drooled over since Brett Favre joined their ranks and pulled out the big (sarcasm) win over the Dolphins in Week 1. Once again, neither PossessionPoints nor Las Vegas is too worried about the Chargers in this game. We think the combination of hunger and need will be enough for San Diego to defeat any miracles the Jets might have up their sleeves. However, given the way this season has so far gone for the Chargers, one never knows.

NFL Performance Rankings - Week 2

The top five Performance Rankings according to PossessionPoints.com are the Cardinals, Giants, Cowboys, Titans and Patriots. This is the first time since the inception of PossessionPoints.com that the Cardinals have earned the top spot. These Performance Rankings are based on in-game statistics that measure the team’s offensive performance. These statistics take into account such elements as the scoring drive, the points scored and time of possession.

It is always interested to note who the bottom five teams are. These are the teams that need to improve greatly if they are going to aspire to any kind of winning season. This week, the bottom five teams are the Bengals, Lions, Chiefs and Texans. The Texans have only played one game so a big turn around is still possible with them.

At this time in the season, we always like to identify the best 0-2 team. This year, there are two 0-2 teams that measure out on the positive side of the performance rankings: the Vikings who came in at 10 and the Chargers who came in at 14.

In the included chart, you will see each team, their win-loss record and the PossessionPoints measure of relative performance which is colored green, yellow or red. A green chart indicates a positive and strong team performance. A yellow chart indicates a mediocre to fair performance and a red chart tells the tale of trouble ahead.

These Performance Ratings are unique because they are based on in-game stats that are present in each game every week. Not present in these performance ratings are any opinion and or subjective measure of any type.

Excessive Celebration Rule Has to Go in College Football

The college sports broadcasters are still talking about last week’s ridiculous excessive celebration call against Washington which literally cost the Huskies the game against Brigham Young. This week another excessive celebration call was called against Penn State because a player flipped the ball lightly after scoring a touchdown, and although it was not a game-ending penalty, this penalty call was nonetheless asinine.

While it is true that PossessionPoints.com focuses only on NFL, we felt the need to talk about the stupid rules that affect players who may or may not go on to the NFL. These are college kids playing a physical and emotional sport. Have we become so encrusted in political correctness that celebrating an accomplishment such as a touchdown is considered unsportsmanlike? In both instances, neither team that was penalized threw their scores in the face of their competition. They hugged their teammates in excitement and then quickly moved off the field. Yes, both players from both teams did flip the ball up in the air, but not at any opposing player or at any official.

If this rule is to stand, what is next? If a college baseball or softball player hits a grand slam, should teammates not be allowed to greet their player at home plate and acknowledge this accomplishment? How about soccer goals? Should teammates just pretend a goal didn’t take place because it might hurt the opposing team’s feelings?

Well, if that’s the case, let’s move the arrogance of celebrating a job well done into the academic world. Let’s do away with Dean’s Lists and awards at graduation. Surely, the graduates who do not achieve high academic grades will feel badly because they will not be recognized for their lackluster academic performance. I guess if you follow the thinking of the NCAA rule makers, recognition of any achievement might emotionally cripple the lives of those who don’t share in the same success.

Coaches go over the rights and wrongs of celebration with their players every year. I do not know of one college program that teaches their players to purposely flaunt their goals and scores in the faces of their opposition. Sportsmanship has always been a key part of college athletics and few programs have fallen short of showing respect to their competition. This excessive celebration rule is another example of how too many regulations ruin a good thing. The NCAA’s rule and willingness of the officials to over- enforce this rule dishonors the players and the games and their accomplishments.

Do away with this rule and let the players have the excitement of the game back.

Good Things Can Happen When History Repeats Itself Especially in the NFL

When Bill Parcells was Coach of the Giants, he recruited from University of Notre Dame, a 6’4”, 255-pound Tight End named Mark Bavarro, an Italian-American who hailed from Massachusetts. Known for his blocking skills and his ability to hold on to even the toughest passes, Bavarro was a key reason why the Giants won the 1986 Super Bowl.

Fast forward 20 years to 2006. Bill Parcells set up shop as Head Coach of the Dallas Cowboys. In the draft, the Cowboys picked a 6’4”, 245-pound Tight End – another Italian- American and another Notre Dame grad named Anthony Fasano. Fasano proved to be a capable Tight End although he did not post as many impressive stats as Bavarro. However, Fasano was part of the Romo-Owens offense which also included another stellar Tight End named Jason Whitten. This talent pool left little room for Tight End super performances by Fasano.

Now, two years later, Bill Parcells is Head of Operations of the Dolphins and guess who came with him to Miami? Anthony Fasano. How do we think Fasano will fare in Miami? We think pretty well. He is on an offense with Chad Pennington who is not quite the long passer that Romo is. Could this mean that Fasano will have more opportunity to make game-altering receptions and possibly become Parcells’ next Mark Bavarro?

Rookie Running Back Steve Slaton was a force to be reckoned with in the Catholic High School League in Philadelphia. In his senior year, he accepted a scholarship to University of Maryland. However, a few weeks before he was set to go play for the Terrapins, he got word that the school reneged on his scholarship. After a quick and desperate search for a new school, Slaton found a home at West Virginia University. Although relieved that he found a team who liked his talent, Slaton knew his playing time would be limited at best. He was the number four Running Back on the team. But that crafty fickle finger of fate was not about to give up on Slaton. Within the first weeks of the start of the season, injuries sidelined all those players who were ahead of Slaton on the team bench. By week four, Slaton had entrenched himself as a starter for West Virginia.

Fast forward three years. Steve Slaton entered the NFL draft after his junior year. In the third round, he was taken by the Texans. Again, Slaton realized that he was pretty far down on the Running Back depth chart. In fact, he was the fifth Running Back of the Texans. Some experts thought Slaton would get the axe before the season opened. At PossessionPoints.com, we referred to Slaton as our “Super Sleeper” having watched him climb through the ranks to become a well-deserved star at West Virginia. We wondered if history would repeat itself again. Guess what? It did. The Texans lost their “starters” to injuries and, lo and behold, Steve Slaton will get another chance to showcase his amazing talent. Isn’t it funny how history or fate or luck can make or break a career?

NFL Week 1 Performance Rankings - the 2008 Season

Week 1 of the 2008 football season is now done, and our performance rankings are already interesting. After the first week, there were 10 teams with green Performance Rankings, 12 teams with yellow and 10 with red. As the season progresses, the yellow Performance Rankings will increase. The top five Performance Rankings for Week 1 according to PossessionPoints.com are the Eagles, Steelers, Broncos, Cardinals and Giants. What a far cry from last year when the Patriots and Cowboys occupied the top spots almost every week! Don’t despair if you are from New England or Dallas as both teams still hold spots in the top 10. The bottom five teams are the Redskins, 49ers, Raiders, Texans and Rams. These Performance Rankings are based on in-game statistics that measure a team's offensive and defensive performance. These statistics take into account such elements as the scoring drive, the points scored and time of possession.

In the included chart, you will see each team, their win-loss record and the PossessionPoints measure of relative performance which is colored green, yellow or red. A green chart indicates a positive and strong team performance. A yellow chart indicates a mediocre to fair performance and a red chart tells the tale of trouble ahead.



These Performance Rankings are unique because they are based on in-game stats that are present in each game every week. Not present in these Performance Rankings are any opinion and or subjective measure of any type. Of course, keep in mind that Week 1 Performance Rankings are based solely on last week’s game

One of the teams that is a PossessionPoints favorite to make the Super Bowl, the New Orleans Saints, disappointed us with a Yellow with a 22.02 Performance Ranking despite winning the game. They earned only the 13th spot in the Performance Rankings.

Fantasy Football Expected Values

This is the last tutorial video of our series about how PossessionPoints.com can enhance your football experience. This video focuses on our unique Fantasy information that can help Fantasy Players win. Enjoy

Big Games of Week 1 of 2008

So you are thinking, “What Big Games? It is week 1. It doesn’t matter one way or another what happens in any games this week.”

Well, to some degree you are right, as one loss isn’t going to ruin any team’s season. Just look at the Giants last season. They started 0-2 and won the Super Bowl, so what does this week matter?

The regular season is only 16 games long and every win is precious. Every win puts your team one step closer to its dream of post season play and perhaps the Super Bowl. Plus, the confidence that can be gained in a couple of early wins can’t be underestimated. Would the Packers, a team full of youth last season (other than Favre) had the season it had in 2007 had the Eagles caught a punt in their first game of the season and actually won that game? And with one more win the Eagles would have been 9-7 instead of 8-8 and perhaps in the playoffs as the wild card instead of the Redskins. So, while it may seem unimportant at the time, what happens in week 1 could turn out to be the game your team needed to make the playoffs.

With that said, let’s highlight a couple of games that could make the difference of making or missing the playoffs. We start with Thursday night’s game between the Giants and Redskins. The Giants are fresh off their Super Bowl win, but they are starting the season with a division opponent. They play in perhaps the toughest division in the NFL (AFC South fans have a good counter argument), so every win or loss could be crucial. Our preseason preview has the Giants as the second wild card team with a 10-6 record, and it also has them them winning this opening game as does our Match Up Page which is based on preseason performance data. A loss in this game and a potential 9-7 record could cost the Giants a return to the playoffs. They could pick up a win in a future game we are expecting them to lose, but the Giants are the Champions and no matter what their record is, other teams want to beat the defending Champs. Any shake in confidence this early in the season or any loss could make them realize that 2008 is not 2007, and that little doubt could spiral a team down quickly.

Another big game on the slate this week is the game between the Saints and the Bucs. The Bucs won the division last season but many prognostications including our preseason preview have great things forecast for the Saints. Our preview issue is projecting a 13-3 mark with the Saints winning the opening day contest with the Bucs. However, our Match Up page does have the Bucs taking this game. So, if the Bucs win at New Orleans, Tampa Bay could pave the way for a better season than we currently expect. We forecast them to be 7-9, but this win would bring up them to 8-8. Obviously, nothing is set in stone about our preseason forecasts, but they have served as a good guide in the past and we expect the same again.

The final “big game” we want to talk about is the Jaguars vs. Titans. Our preseason forecast went out on a limb here and forecast the Jags to unseat the Colts as the top of this division. Our preseason issue also has the Titans winning, but our Match Up page (again data based on preseason performance) has the Jags taking this contest. However, it also forecast the AFC South to be the “other” division where every team plays .500 or better. This game could show us if the Jags are all that our numbers thought they could be or if the Titans are the team that might possibly emerge on the top of the AFC South. At this time, we don’t think the outcome of this particular game will affect the playoff chances of either team. We think they both make it, but it could be the signal for which team poses the greatest threat to take the division away from the Colts who seem to win it every year.

Each week, PossessionPoints.com will highlight games we think will be important in terms of the playoffs and you can see from our discussions above that even in week 1 games can be important. Rest assured, every week there will be at least 1 big game and PossessionPoints will highlight it, bring you our analysis and tell you what the outcome may mean for the teams. Let’s have a great 2008!

Fantasy Football - The Dynamic Duo

So, you had your first draft and now you are waiting for your Fantasy League to go into full swing. People sweat over their first picks, but it is really the subsequent selections week after week that decide whether your team is a winner or a dud.

For years now, the same methods of picking Fantasy teams have held their course. It’s human nature to trust the traditional lists that have been put out by the “Powers that Be” in football. Is there a non-traditional way of picking Fantasy players?

What if out there somewhere loomed a non-traditional, mathematical process that allowed you to see what your potential Fantasy teams faced not only on a weekly basis but on a four-week basis or the remainder of the season basis?

You think that is impossible, but mathematics is an amazing thing. Many sports fans forget about the mathematics involved in football. Oh sure, they can spout statistics after the fact, but they have no idea where those stats come from. Instead, they push the math aside and go with their gut. Now, if you are psychic, go with the gut. But for the rest of us who may lack the sixth sense, we need to let go of the hunches method and find a method that will help us figure out our Fantasy team best.

The idea of Math and Fantasy Football may make a lot of us cringe. Most of us have lived in the hope that what we learned in high school Algebra and Calculus would never have an effect on our lives – ever! But guess what? We do need that math. That math has gone into everything we use from the coffeemaker that gets us going in the morning to the plasma TV that settles us in for the night. If you are so willing to concede the need for the math that goes into these products, why not concede the need for the math that goes into something as entertaining as Fantasy Football?

So, the idea is to embrace mathematics and learn what it can do for you. Appreciate the value of mathematics. It’s a beautiful thing. possessionpoints.com

What our Match Up Page Can Do For You

We hope you enjoy the third video of our series, "What our Match Up Page Can Do For You!"

The Basics of PossessionPoints.com

We have talked on many occasions about the value of PossessionPoints as a tool to project weekly NFL winners and as a tool for Fantasy Football Players. In our new video below, we bring another advantage of PossessionPoints to light: its usefulness as an in-game stat. We hope you enjoy the video and learn a little bit more about this stat that is revolutionary to the world of NFL analysis.

The Agony and Ecstasy of the Final Season Cuts

While many of us can remember the disappointment of getting cut from a high school sports team, few of us can identify with the despair that comes along with getting the axe from the NFL.

Saturday, is final cut day for NFL teams. Everyone must take the rosters down to the final 53 – that is 27 fewer than the 80 hopefuls that started the summer with the dream of playing for a professional team. While players and fans will say the final cuts are part of the business of football, we have to feel badly for the aspiring would-be NFL stars who will find themselves on the unemployment line, ironically during Labor Day weekend.

Undoubtedly, there will be some cut players who will find a job on other teams who have spots to fill due to injuries, and there will even be some who make a team’s practice squad which will keep their NFL hopes alive for another year. Every season, we also hear of the newly signed player whose dream was miraculously resurrected midseason by a team desperate for a position filler. Frequently, these lucky few Cinderella players seem to be liberated from construction gigs or jobs with UPS or some other employment that was far removed from the NFL world. We like these stories because they create the drama that is the NFL

While we at PossessionPoints.com make our money studying and projecting the wins and losses of NFL teams and applying our stat analysis to the elite performers of the league with our Fantasy Football player values, we never want to forget the individuals who pour their heart and soul into these teams hoping to make their mark. Yes, football is a business and yes, these athletes know the score. But as the season openers approach, we want to take the time to recognize and applaud all those who gave their dream a shot.

PossessionPoints.com Goes YouTube

Yes, we are now You Tube Mavens. Well, maybe not mavens, but we are getting there. PossessionPoints.com has posted our first instructional video entitled “A Quick Tour of PossessionPoints.com.”

In this video, we explain the basics of PossessionPoints from what exactly is a PossessionPoint to how it can enhance all your football activities. We hope you take a few minutes to watch our presentation below and learn about the many benefits we offer.


We are going to do a series of quick and simple videos over the next few weeks highlighting the many aspects of PossessionPoints.com. As usual, we welcome your comments. Please feel free to send us an email with your questions or feedback at info@possessionpoints.com

Which Division is the Best in the NFL?

We were polishing off our Preseason Preview Issue at PossessionPoints.com when it struck us that two of the divisions in the NFL are lacking the typical weak teams that often give the rest of the division the easy wins they need to pump up their season records. With so much strength in these divisions, it is difficult to predict which team will finish first - or fourth for that matter- as they each present unique and potent threats. Frequently, when there is a difficult division, those teams fight it out among themselves and their records cluster around .500 with the winners being slightly above and the losers slightly below.

This year, the two tough divisions will be taking their crushing strength outside to other league opponents. We forecast all the teams in the NFC East and the AFC South to finish above .500 which is rarely seen in the same division. We also think that both Wildcards from each of the conferences will come from those two divisions (another rare event). The NFC East is composed of the Cowboys, Giants, Eagles and Redskins. The AFC South includes the Colts, Jaguars, Titans and Texans. People may wonder about the Texans finishing above .500, but the improvements they have shown under Coach Gary Kubiak were enough for our computer algorithms to propel them to a 9-7 projected record in 2008.

When we saw such strength, we had to pose the question to fans on the Web, “Who do you think is the strongest division?” We actually have the NFC East and AFC South pretty even performing well above and beyond any other division. Our analysis makes us feel sorry for the AFC North who have to play both the NFC East and AFC South this season. This is why our projections are for the Steelers to have the toughest schedule in the league this year with the Bengals, Browns and Ravens not too far behind.

Further details and insight into the strength of the divisions as well as projections on all teams are available in our Preseason Preview Issue at PossessionPoints.com.