Tuesday, September 13, 2011

A PossessionPoints.com View of Week one 2011 Season

Week 1 produced a good start for the matchup page especially Against The Spread (ATS). For the week, we were 9-7 straight up, but we were actually better in ATS going 10-6. Our Bronze selections were 2-0 ATS and our Delaware 3-Pick was 2-1. The Season Preview picks like the Matchup picks went 9-7. The other thing to watch this season, our top 8 confidence picks were 5-3. We will be tracking and reporting on all these throughout the season.


We were a little concerned that the abbreviated preseason might hold the offense down, but looking at our numbers it looked pretty much like a normal week. We had 5 “green sweeps” which is about what we would expect in a normal 16-game week. The team with the “green sweep” won all 5 games.

For those of you who are new to PossessionPoints this season we will briefly go over some of the things you will hear us talk about in this newsletter. We look at PossessionPoints from 3 aspects: offense, defense and overall (which we will sometimes call net). Each of these measures has levels of significance that we highlight with colors. When a Team’s offensive PossessionPoints turn “green” at 100, historically these teams win 75% of the time. When a team’s defensive PossessionPoints are “green” at a number below 60 at the end of the game, these teams win 80% of the time. Teams with an overall PossessionPoints number over 40 win 90%. When a team has all 3 of these measures green we call this a green sweep and the teams win 93% of the time when this happens. If you don’t get it right away, don’t worry; you will quickly enough.

The other thing we would like to tell our newcomers is about our “Dogs of the Week”. Each week we highlight in this newsletter a Top Dog, which is the team that accumulated the most offensive PossessionPoints during the week. We also have a Lucky Dog which goes to the team that won with the fewest PossessionPoints that week. And finally, we have our Unlucky Dog, which goes to the team that loses even though they had more PossessionPoints than their opponents. Some weeks this doesn’t happen, but there is typically at least one team that qualifies.

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