2011 Season Preview: Miami Dolphins

AFC East – Dolphins

Summary:

Last year we projected the Dolphins would have good season but still miss the playoffs. We were half right, they missed the playoffs but their 2010 season can be best classified as average as went 7-9 for the second year in a row. This year they have a slightly tougher than average schedule with the 12th toughest schedule by the PossessionPoints (10th toughest by the classic method). Their 2010 PossessionPoints performances had them with the 20th ranked offense and 13th best defense. Getting their offense back on track and continuing to improve their defense will be key to 2011. We went out on a limb some and adjusted their offense up 10% and their defense 5%. 



These adjustments produced a “Yellow” 8-8 record forecast. This record misses the playoffs and the Dolphins division will once again be a very tough division. All in all we are comfortable with the computer’s projection of another run of the mill season in Miami.     

Room for improvement:

There is certainly plenty of room to improve on their 20th ranked offense and 13th ranked defense. So we adjusted their offense to a +20% adjustment and their defense to +15% to see what that would produce. It was at these levels that the Dolphins became playoff bound with a projected record of 11-5. The Jets maintained their projected 10-6 record but the Dolphins took their wildcard. In this scenario the other wildcard team would have been the 11-5 Ravens. The 3 additional wins would come in games at home with the Patriots and Eagles and on the road at the Chiefs. Beating the Eagles this season may be a tall order but the other two don’t seem out of the realm of possibilities especially since the Dolphins do seem to be able to upset the Patriots from time to time. 

How they could falter:

Look out below, it doesn’t take much for the Dolphins season to go in the tank. When we adjust their offense to no change from 2009 and defense by a negative 5%, they fall to a poor 4-12 record. There is a pretty good range of possibilities for the Dolphins, 4-12 on the downside and 11-5 on the upside. Not surprising that our projection came in just about the middle at 8-8. 

Biggest Question Marks:

Quarterback? It seemed that the Dolphins were not sold on Chad Henne as their starter and several of the available veterans such as Matt Hasselbeck were rumored to be possibly heading to Miami. In the end none of the big name QBs found their way to Miami. They signed Matt Moore who has experience with the Carolina Panthers but doesn’t seem to be an upgrade from Henne. It is doubtful that undrafted free agent Pat Devlin or 3 year backup Kevin O’Connell will be serious contenders for the starting position. So it looks like the job is Henne’s, is Chad up to the task? Can he lead the Dolphins back to the playoffs? We don’t know, but we will be watching the couple of games with great interest.