Summary:
The Ravens showed they are going to be a team to contend with every year last year. After falling back to Earth two years ago with a 9-7 playoff making record they once again had an outstanding 12-4 record. They were a good but not outstanding PossessionPoints team last season ranking 13th in offense and 10th in defense. In the past the Ravens running attack had depth, this season it appears that they will be heavily relying on Ray Rice. Yes, they picked up Ricky Williams to compliment Rice but as good as he is he is at 34 he is really getting up there in age for an NFL running back. They picked up Lee Evans at wide receiver and drafted two wide receivers so they may be stronger there but they lost Todd Heap at tight end and his contributions will be difficult to replace. So, we lowered their offense by 5% and left their defensive performance unchanged.
The Ravens got a break from the schedule this season, it is ranked 31st toughest by the classic win-loss method, it ranked 24th by the PossessionPoints (RPM) method. So even though we didn’t improve their performance they still are projected to turn in a wildcard winning 11-5 record.
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| Ravens 2011 game by game projection |
It really comes down to their offense, by pushing their offensive performance up to a 10% improvement their projected win loss record jumps to 14-2. That would be good enough to tie them with the Steelers for the division title. But getting the record past 14-2 doesn’t look likely, we pushed the defense to +20% and it didn’t change any further, it stayed at 14-2. So we are going to call 14-2 as the optimistic top side for the Ravens in 2011.
How they could falter:
We always hate talking about the downside because it makes us look pessimistic. With the Ravens, we decided to see what would happen if their offense tailed off by 15% while their defense regressed by 10%. Even with the Ravens “easy” schedule this produced a sub-0.500 6-10 record. Still if you look at this as a reliable base from which to build, six wins isn’t a bad starting point.
All in all, not too bad, the upside is a team with a legitimate shot at the Super Bowl and the down side of six wins. Here’s to the upside!
Biggest Question Marks:
Depth. The Ravens team doesn’t have many question marks; they have quality players on both sides of the ball but they appear thin. Key injuries could affect the Ravens more than their competitors. If the Ravens stay healthy they will be in the playoffs, if they have injuries we will be hearing their coaches tell us how “injuries are part of the NFL game and they aren’t an excuse for losing.” They may not be an excuse but if your team doesn’t have the depth to carry on despite injuries then they do become a contributing factor. Ravens fans have plenty to be optimistic about and when the biggest question we could come up with is the quality of the backups you should feel pretty good.
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