2011 Season Preview: NY Jets

Continuing with the 32 team by team preview and projections.


AFC East – Jets
Summary:

Last year, we thought “the progression of Mark Sanchez and the Jets offense” would improve so we adjusted their offense up and projected a 12-4 record. The second year of Sanchez was an improvement but not quite as much as we thought so they got to 11-5. Not a bad projection overall. There is still room for Sanchez and the Jets offense to improve further and we are forecasting just that.  In 2010 the Sanchez-led offense ranked 17th in the league, and the defense ranked 8th in the league as measured by the PossessionPoints stat. Their quest for the Super Bowl fell short for the second year in a row, and Rex Ryan made it very clear he was not happy with just playing in January, he was looking to get to that big game in February.

This season, we look for the continued progression of Mark Sanchez and the Jets offense, so we adjusted those numbers up by 10%. While the Rex Ryan defensive schemes and blitzes seemed to be better prepared for by teams last season, we still expect another solid season by the defense, so we adjusted those numbers up by 5%. The Jets lost out on the Nnamdi Asomugh sweepstakes but they re-signed Antonio Cromartie as the second corner to go with their all-pro cornerback Darrelle Revis. While the Jets defensive backfield may take a backseat to the Eagles this season it is nonetheless formidable. Given this we don’t feel out on a limb with our 5% adjustment.  The result was a second place 10-6 projected record and a return to the playoffs. 

Room for improvement:

There actually is room since the adjustments that were made had not made the Jets a top 10 offense, and their defense while in the top 5 was not the top. So we made their offense improve by 20% and defense by 15% and that shot the Jets projected record to a division winning 14-2 mark. The additional wins would come against the Chargers, Patriots and Dolphins at home and the Ravens on the road. These kinds of improvements may be a bit of a stretch for this season. Sanchez in his third season could certainly cause the Jets to improve by more than our original 10% projection, but it is by no means a sure thing.

How they could falter:

Here the forecast gets a little cloudy for the Jets, let’s say the offense doesn’t progress (0% adjustment) and the league gets even better at out guessing the Ryan blitz schemes and their defensive performance falls off by 5%. Their projected record falls all the way to 5-11 and that obviously means no playoff berth. It may take till the “Bye” week before fans know something is off. Instead of going into the bye with a 4-3 record this scenario would have them at 3-4. No need to panic but the second half of the Jets schedule then gets dicey. 

Biggest Question Marks:

Mark Sanchez. So far in his pro career Mark Sanchez has shown flashes of brilliance but he has also on occasion made the big mistake. In this his third season can he start consistently making the big play and avoiding the big mistake? It is easy to dismiss mistakes his first two seasons as those of a young inexperienced QB, he now has 2 years of experience including playoff experience. If Sanchez can enter the realm of elite quarterbacks then the Jets just might finally find their way to the big game in February.