Saturday, March 28, 2009

Can the Draft Rescue the Eagles' Off Season

Yes, believe it or not, the NFL draft is once again within our midst. The months of conjecture, hypothesizing and just plain guessing are coming to a close. Before all the deals and picks are made, we, at PossessionPoints.com thought we would add our own data to the mix over the next few weeks to see what holes the teams are looking to fill.

Before we look to the draft, we like to look at a team’s last-season PossessionPoints performance to assess their strengths and weaknesses. Last season, the Eagles were a good PossessionPoints team both offensively and defensively, and we were not the least bit surprised that the Eagles got to the NFC championship game as a wildcard. In fact, our Preseason Preview issue last year had the Eagles heading to the Super Bowl.

In PossessionPoints, we color-code outstanding performances in green and miserable performances in red. During the 2008 season, the Eagles attained nine green offensive performances and eight green defensive performances. This was balanced against just three red offensive and three red defensive performances. So, despite all the melodrama surrounding the McNabb benching and other distractions, the Eagles did prove to be a very good team.

According to our proprietary stat and data, if the Eagles left things as they were, any addition to the offense or defense would have been an asset for the team even though Philadelphia did not cry out for any major changes on either side of the ball. However, let’s look at what the Eagles have done in the off season which, we admit, has changed our view. The Eagles have lost to free agency the defensive leader who was the spirit behind the team, Brian Dawkins. Also gone are running back Correll Buckhalter, tight end L.J. Smith, safety Sean Considine and tackle Tra Thomas. Technically a free agent and also a potential loss for the Eagles is tackle John Runyon.

To compensate for these real and potential losses, Philadelphia has signed Tackle Stacy Andrews from the Bengals, Defensive Backs Sean Jones from the Browns and Rashad Baker from the Raiders as well as Running Back Leonard Weaver from the Seahawks. These "non-standout” NFL names from ‘’non-standout” NFL teams do not inspire confidence in the Eagles’ loyal fans who are still reeling from the loss of Dawkins.

So, we now see the draft as a place where the Eagles must look if they are to fix their broken wings. Fortunately for the Eagles in 2009, they have 11 picks overall in the seven rounds and four picks in the top 100. We would like to see the Eagles address the running back, tight end and wide receiver positions on offense, but knowing the Eagles, we would not be surprised to see them draft a lineman before anybody else.

The top-rated tight end, Brandon Pettigrew, out of Oklahoma State is 6’6” and 263 pounds. We know McNabb loves throwing to his tight ends and this guy could be quite the target. He is almost certain to be around when the Eagles pick at 21. The Eagles could gamble that he will be there at 28, but that gamble may cost them. If by some chance we see that University of Mississippi’s Michael Oher is still there at 21, we would not be disappointed if Philadelphia selected this offensive tackle. In selecting Pettigrew or Oher, The Eagles may have to take the chance that they would strike gold like the Bears and Texans did last year with Matt Forte or Steve Slayton, if they wait to pick a running back with either their 53rd or 85th pick.
One running back we see that might be gold with a later pick is Rashad Jennings from Liberty University – a non-football power school. We all know the Eagles love these schools, and sometimes these picks pan out. Just look at Brian Westbrook who is a product of basketball powerhouse Villanova.

On the defensive side, Philadelphia may be able to draft someone who has a younger body than Brian Dawkins even though that body will not replace the emotional leadership that Dawkins provided. We can see the Eagles going for a safety selection with their 53rd or 85th pick. Some of the prime candidates who could be around then would be William Moore out of Missouri, Patrick Chung out of Oregon or Chip Vaughn, known to be a big-hitting enforcer, out of Wake Forest.

If Moore is available, he would be our favorite pick, but if not, we would like them to see if they could get Vaughn at 85 or later.