We have talked on many occasions about the value of PossessionPoints as a tool to project weekly NFL winners and as a tool for Fantasy Football Players. In our new video below, we bring another advantage of PossessionPoints to light: its usefulness as an in-game stat. We hope you enjoy the video and learn a little bit more about this stat that is revolutionary to the world of NFL analysis.
Sunday, August 31, 2008
Friday, August 29, 2008
The Agony and Ecstasy of the Final Season Cuts
While many of us can remember the disappointment of getting cut from a high school sports team, few of us can identify with the despair that comes along with getting the axe from the NFL.
Saturday, is final cut day for NFL teams. Everyone must take the rosters down to the final 53 – that is 27 fewer than the 80 hopefuls that started the summer with the dream of playing for a professional team. While players and fans will say the final cuts are part of the business of football, we have to feel badly for the aspiring would-be NFL stars who will find themselves on the unemployment line, ironically during Labor Day weekend.
Undoubtedly, there will be some cut players who will find a job on other teams who have spots to fill due to injuries, and there will even be some who make a team’s practice squad which will keep their NFL hopes alive for another year. Every season, we also hear of the newly signed player whose dream was miraculously resurrected midseason by a team desperate for a position filler. Frequently, these lucky few Cinderella players seem to be liberated from construction gigs or jobs with UPS or some other employment that was far removed from the NFL world. We like these stories because they create the drama that is the NFL
While we at PossessionPoints.com make our money studying and projecting the wins and losses of NFL teams and applying our stat analysis to the elite performers of the league with our Fantasy Football player values, we never want to forget the individuals who pour their heart and soul into these teams hoping to make their mark. Yes, football is a business and yes, these athletes know the score. But as the season openers approach, we want to take the time to recognize and applaud all those who gave their dream a shot.
Saturday, is final cut day for NFL teams. Everyone must take the rosters down to the final 53 – that is 27 fewer than the 80 hopefuls that started the summer with the dream of playing for a professional team. While players and fans will say the final cuts are part of the business of football, we have to feel badly for the aspiring would-be NFL stars who will find themselves on the unemployment line, ironically during Labor Day weekend.
Undoubtedly, there will be some cut players who will find a job on other teams who have spots to fill due to injuries, and there will even be some who make a team’s practice squad which will keep their NFL hopes alive for another year. Every season, we also hear of the newly signed player whose dream was miraculously resurrected midseason by a team desperate for a position filler. Frequently, these lucky few Cinderella players seem to be liberated from construction gigs or jobs with UPS or some other employment that was far removed from the NFL world. We like these stories because they create the drama that is the NFL
While we at PossessionPoints.com make our money studying and projecting the wins and losses of NFL teams and applying our stat analysis to the elite performers of the league with our Fantasy Football player values, we never want to forget the individuals who pour their heart and soul into these teams hoping to make their mark. Yes, football is a business and yes, these athletes know the score. But as the season openers approach, we want to take the time to recognize and applaud all those who gave their dream a shot.
Monday, August 25, 2008
PossessionPoints.com Goes YouTube
Yes, we are now You Tube Mavens. Well, maybe not mavens, but we are getting there. PossessionPoints.com has posted our first instructional video entitled “A Quick Tour of PossessionPoints.com.”
In this video, we explain the basics of PossessionPoints from what exactly is a PossessionPoint to how it can enhance all your football activities. We hope you take a few minutes to watch our presentation below and learn about the many benefits we offer.
We are going to do a series of quick and simple videos over the next few weeks highlighting the many aspects of PossessionPoints.com. As usual, we welcome your comments. Please feel free to send us an email with your questions or feedback at info@possessionpoints.com
In this video, we explain the basics of PossessionPoints from what exactly is a PossessionPoint to how it can enhance all your football activities. We hope you take a few minutes to watch our presentation below and learn about the many benefits we offer.
We are going to do a series of quick and simple videos over the next few weeks highlighting the many aspects of PossessionPoints.com. As usual, we welcome your comments. Please feel free to send us an email with your questions or feedback at info@possessionpoints.com
Sunday, August 17, 2008
Which Division is the Best in the NFL?
We were polishing off our Preseason Preview Issue at PossessionPoints.com when it struck us that two of the divisions in the NFL are lacking the typical weak teams that often give the rest of the division the easy wins they need to pump up their season records. With so much strength in these divisions, it is difficult to predict which team will finish first - or fourth for that matter- as they each present unique and potent threats. Frequently, when there is a difficult division, those teams fight it out among themselves and their records cluster around .500 with the winners being slightly above and the losers slightly below.
This year, the two tough divisions will be taking their crushing strength outside to other league opponents. We forecast all the teams in the NFC East and the AFC South to finish above .500 which is rarely seen in the same division. We also think that both Wildcards from each of the conferences will come from those two divisions (another rare event). The NFC East is composed of the Cowboys, Giants, Eagles and Redskins. The AFC South includes the Colts, Jaguars, Titans and Texans. People may wonder about the Texans finishing above .500, but the improvements they have shown under Coach Gary Kubiak were enough for our computer algorithms to propel them to a 9-7 projected record in 2008.
When we saw such strength, we had to pose the question to fans on the Web, “Who do you think is the strongest division?” We actually have the NFC East and AFC South pretty even performing well above and beyond any other division. Our analysis makes us feel sorry for the AFC North who have to play both the NFC East and AFC South this season. This is why our projections are for the Steelers to have the toughest schedule in the league this year with the Bengals, Browns and Ravens not too far behind.
Further details and insight into the strength of the divisions as well as projections on all teams are available in our Preseason Preview Issue at PossessionPoints.com.
This year, the two tough divisions will be taking their crushing strength outside to other league opponents. We forecast all the teams in the NFC East and the AFC South to finish above .500 which is rarely seen in the same division. We also think that both Wildcards from each of the conferences will come from those two divisions (another rare event). The NFC East is composed of the Cowboys, Giants, Eagles and Redskins. The AFC South includes the Colts, Jaguars, Titans and Texans. People may wonder about the Texans finishing above .500, but the improvements they have shown under Coach Gary Kubiak were enough for our computer algorithms to propel them to a 9-7 projected record in 2008.
When we saw such strength, we had to pose the question to fans on the Web, “Who do you think is the strongest division?” We actually have the NFC East and AFC South pretty even performing well above and beyond any other division. Our analysis makes us feel sorry for the AFC North who have to play both the NFC East and AFC South this season. This is why our projections are for the Steelers to have the toughest schedule in the league this year with the Bengals, Browns and Ravens not too far behind.
Further details and insight into the strength of the divisions as well as projections on all teams are available in our Preseason Preview Issue at PossessionPoints.com.
Monday, August 11, 2008
Sizing Up Rookie Running Backs
Will Darren McFadden be this year’s Adrian Peterson? Will anybody be? Most likely not, but the more important question for Fantasy players is: will McFadden have star Fantasy potential. McFadden is but one piece of the puzzle that Fantasy players will need to size up before their draft.
Well, as unreliable as “preseason” data is, it is worth looking at week 1 data to see if there might be a diamond in the rough hiding on the bench somewhere. Below is a chart of what the rookie running backs would have been worth in some Fantasy games:
Let’s examine some of them.
Jacob Hester – well the Chargers have 2 running backs on this list: Hester and Marcus Thomas. Hester was their 3rd round pick while Thomas was their 5th round pick. Neither should be expected to turn in big Fantasy numbers behind LT in San Diego. If your league has many bench players you might look at Hester as a back-up.
Chris Johnson – the Titans probably feel pretty good about their #1 draft pick. Johnson was taken 24th overall, and like McFadden, he might turn into a rookie running back that may actually have some fantasy value. He will be a “complement” to LenDale White to start the season, but if Johnson keeps having games like “preseason game 1”, he may earn a greater role. Look for him as a potential sleeper.
Mike Hart – Hart had a nice game and was a capable college back, but the Colts 6th round draft pick will probably spend more time on the bench than the field this year. He had a good preseason game, but don’t expect Hart to add up the Fantasy Points this season.
Tashard Choice – The Cowboys must be thrilled with the performance of their 4th round pick as well as their 1st round pick Felix Jones who was also on the list a little below. Of the two rookies, Jones is more likely to have Fantasy value this year, and with Julius Jones gone, Felix may get his carries. We would expect Marion Barber to be the main man in the backfield with Jones the first replacement and Choice after that.
Tim Hightower – While Cardinal brass probably feels good about their 5th round draft pick, don’t expect Hightower to have too many fantasy performances like preseason week 1 especially if Edgerrin James is healthy.
So we will skip further down the chart to Darren McFadden – the Oakland Raider’s 1st round draft pick was the top running back taken. Many people expect he will have immediate Fantasy value. Preseason game 1 McFadden got a fair amount of first half action, but he didn’t exactly ring up numbers that would make Fantasy managers race to rework their draft priorities.
Right below McFadden on the list is a guy who has had to prove himself at every level. Steve Slaton was a relatively high draft pick taken in the third round, but Fantasy advisors around the nation are telling their faithful to avoid him. The Texans website lists Slaton 5th on their depth chart and were it not for his 4 kickoff returns for a total of 90+ yards, you might wonder if the Texans third round choice will even make the team. But Slaton was in a similar position his freshman year at West Virginia. Injuries forced him into the lineup and he never got out. Could the same thing happen in the NFL? We don’t know. We wouldn’t have him on our opening day Fantasy roster either, but PossessionPoints.com will keep an eye on the super sleeper from Houston.
Well, as unreliable as “preseason” data is, it is worth looking at week 1 data to see if there might be a diamond in the rough hiding on the bench somewhere. Below is a chart of what the rookie running backs would have been worth in some Fantasy games:
Let’s examine some of them.
Jacob Hester – well the Chargers have 2 running backs on this list: Hester and Marcus Thomas. Hester was their 3rd round pick while Thomas was their 5th round pick. Neither should be expected to turn in big Fantasy numbers behind LT in San Diego. If your league has many bench players you might look at Hester as a back-up.
Chris Johnson – the Titans probably feel pretty good about their #1 draft pick. Johnson was taken 24th overall, and like McFadden, he might turn into a rookie running back that may actually have some fantasy value. He will be a “complement” to LenDale White to start the season, but if Johnson keeps having games like “preseason game 1”, he may earn a greater role. Look for him as a potential sleeper.
Mike Hart – Hart had a nice game and was a capable college back, but the Colts 6th round draft pick will probably spend more time on the bench than the field this year. He had a good preseason game, but don’t expect Hart to add up the Fantasy Points this season.
Tashard Choice – The Cowboys must be thrilled with the performance of their 4th round pick as well as their 1st round pick Felix Jones who was also on the list a little below. Of the two rookies, Jones is more likely to have Fantasy value this year, and with Julius Jones gone, Felix may get his carries. We would expect Marion Barber to be the main man in the backfield with Jones the first replacement and Choice after that.
Tim Hightower – While Cardinal brass probably feels good about their 5th round draft pick, don’t expect Hightower to have too many fantasy performances like preseason week 1 especially if Edgerrin James is healthy.
So we will skip further down the chart to Darren McFadden – the Oakland Raider’s 1st round draft pick was the top running back taken. Many people expect he will have immediate Fantasy value. Preseason game 1 McFadden got a fair amount of first half action, but he didn’t exactly ring up numbers that would make Fantasy managers race to rework their draft priorities.
Right below McFadden on the list is a guy who has had to prove himself at every level. Steve Slaton was a relatively high draft pick taken in the third round, but Fantasy advisors around the nation are telling their faithful to avoid him. The Texans website lists Slaton 5th on their depth chart and were it not for his 4 kickoff returns for a total of 90+ yards, you might wonder if the Texans third round choice will even make the team. But Slaton was in a similar position his freshman year at West Virginia. Injuries forced him into the lineup and he never got out. Could the same thing happen in the NFL? We don’t know. We wouldn’t have him on our opening day Fantasy roster either, but PossessionPoints.com will keep an eye on the super sleeper from Houston.
Thursday, August 7, 2008
How Much Difference Does A Favre Make?
What Difference Does a Favre Make? I guess this is the question that is burning in the minds of NFL fans and teams everywhere. But according to PossessionPoints the answer is: Not as much as we might have thought. Sorry, Favre devotees, but this is what we have learned while working on our Preseason Preview issue these past few weeks.
We had thought we had accounted for all the major shifts of players. We had adjusted the Green Bay PossessionPoints Offense and Defense numbers down to account for the retirement of Brett Favre. Then, with Brett un-retiring, we thought that perhaps we had to just undo those adjustments. However, when we saw that the Green Bay staff was not welcoming Favre back with open arms, we realized that they must really see something they like in Aaron Rodgers since they stuck to their guns and finally traded Favre to the New York Jets after a three-week drama-fest that rivaled the story lines on Days of Our Lives. So, we had to reconsider and re-adjust our numbers again to not only suit the new situation in Green Bay but in New York as well.
What does Favre’s addition to the Jets do? Initially, we were expecting the Jets to have a pretty dismal year, so we had made 0 adjustments to their PossessionPoints numbers over last season. With the arrival of Favre, we went back to our program and adjusted the Jets’ PossessionPoints Offense numbers up 25% and the Defense up 5%. What was the impact of that adjustment? Not as much as one would think. The new numbers brought the Jets up to just a 5-11 record. For curiosity sake, we wanted to see how much of an effect Favre needed to have on the Jets for them to get into the playoffs. We pushed up the PossessionPoints Offensive improvement to 50% (a generous number), and the Jets’ projected record went to 9-7 which still misses the playoffs. So, we bumped up their PossessionPoints improvement to 55% and that still put them at 9-7. Okay, we had some fun and cranked their improvement numbers to 60%. Finally, that gave us a significant jump in the Jets’ projections. With that extreme adjustment of numbers upwards, the Jets finally become an 11-5 playoff team.
Now, we don't know about you, and perhaps we were being a little unfair by not improving the Jets before they acquired Favre, but even with the addition of Favre, we don't really expect the Jets to improve their Offensive PossessionPoints performance by 60%. As we were playing with adjustments, we thought it was interesting that the biggest impact of Favre moving to NY seemed to be on the NFC West, Yes, that's right, just how good the Jets and Bills are this season may well determine whether or not the Seahawks or Cardinals rise to the top of the NFC West. We had a tie-breaker situation with the Seahawks and Cardinals with both their records at 9-7. As we adjusted the Jets’ performance upwards, they first beat the Cardinals giving the division to the Seahawks. Then, as we adjusted their PossessionPoints numbers up further, the Jets beat the Seahawks which puts Cardinals and Seahawks back into a tie-breaking situation.
Hopefully, these are the last preseason Favre adjustments anyone has to make. Maybe, now we can all just get back to football – the sport – not the drama behind it.
We had thought we had accounted for all the major shifts of players. We had adjusted the Green Bay PossessionPoints Offense and Defense numbers down to account for the retirement of Brett Favre. Then, with Brett un-retiring, we thought that perhaps we had to just undo those adjustments. However, when we saw that the Green Bay staff was not welcoming Favre back with open arms, we realized that they must really see something they like in Aaron Rodgers since they stuck to their guns and finally traded Favre to the New York Jets after a three-week drama-fest that rivaled the story lines on Days of Our Lives. So, we had to reconsider and re-adjust our numbers again to not only suit the new situation in Green Bay but in New York as well.
What does Favre’s addition to the Jets do? Initially, we were expecting the Jets to have a pretty dismal year, so we had made 0 adjustments to their PossessionPoints numbers over last season. With the arrival of Favre, we went back to our program and adjusted the Jets’ PossessionPoints Offense numbers up 25% and the Defense up 5%. What was the impact of that adjustment? Not as much as one would think. The new numbers brought the Jets up to just a 5-11 record. For curiosity sake, we wanted to see how much of an effect Favre needed to have on the Jets for them to get into the playoffs. We pushed up the PossessionPoints Offensive improvement to 50% (a generous number), and the Jets’ projected record went to 9-7 which still misses the playoffs. So, we bumped up their PossessionPoints improvement to 55% and that still put them at 9-7. Okay, we had some fun and cranked their improvement numbers to 60%. Finally, that gave us a significant jump in the Jets’ projections. With that extreme adjustment of numbers upwards, the Jets finally become an 11-5 playoff team.
Now, we don't know about you, and perhaps we were being a little unfair by not improving the Jets before they acquired Favre, but even with the addition of Favre, we don't really expect the Jets to improve their Offensive PossessionPoints performance by 60%. As we were playing with adjustments, we thought it was interesting that the biggest impact of Favre moving to NY seemed to be on the NFC West, Yes, that's right, just how good the Jets and Bills are this season may well determine whether or not the Seahawks or Cardinals rise to the top of the NFC West. We had a tie-breaker situation with the Seahawks and Cardinals with both their records at 9-7. As we adjusted the Jets’ performance upwards, they first beat the Cardinals giving the division to the Seahawks. Then, as we adjusted their PossessionPoints numbers up further, the Jets beat the Seahawks which puts Cardinals and Seahawks back into a tie-breaking situation.
Hopefully, these are the last preseason Favre adjustments anyone has to make. Maybe, now we can all just get back to football – the sport – not the drama behind it.
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