PossessionPoints Week 12 NFL Performance Rankings

The top five Performance Rankings for Week 12 according to PossessionPoints.com are the Patriots, Steelers, Colts, Cowboys and Giants. The Packers are still number six despite the fact that they are now 10-1. However, we reiterate the fact that Green Bay has tended to make quick strike scores which lowers their Relative Performance Measure or RPM. The Jaguars are now in 7th place having moved up one spot from last week. Performance Rankings are based on in-game statistics that measure a team's offensive performance. These statistics take into account such elements as the scoring drive, the points scored and time of possession.

In the included chart, you will see each team, their win-loss record and the PossessionPoints measure of relative performance which is colored green, yellow or red. A green chart indicates a positive and strong team performance. A yellow chart indicates a mediocre to fair performance and a red chart tells the tale of trouble ahead.


These Performance Ratings are unique because they are based on in-game stats that are present in each game every week. Not present in these performance ratings are any opinion and or subjective measure of any type.

At the bottom of the pack this week are the same teams as last week: the Bills, 49ers, Dolphins and Jets. The real interest is starting to be with the crowd of teams who have near .500 records. Someone, somewhere has go to break out of this congested pack. NFC 5-6 teams with positive RPM are led by the Eagles who are 8th on our chart and whose performance numbers have been better than their record all season. They are followed by the Saints and Cardinals who also have 5-6 records and are 13th and 14th on our chart. The Lions, who are 6-5 with a negative RPM and are 17th on our list, should be looking over their shoulders at the teams with the positive RPM who are looking for an opportunity to snatch the playoff spot away from them.

Since last week, the Cardinals position has gotten shakier. In Week 11, we had them winning their division, but in Week 12, after losing a game we thought they would win, the Cardinals’ projected record has dropped to 8-8 leaving them out of the playoffs. Also in the NFC, we now see the Saints and Giants as the wildcard teams which figures since they are two of the teams with positive RPMs.

In the AFC, our projected playoff picture remains unchanged. We see the Patriots, Colts, Steelers and Chargers winning their divisions with the Jaguars and Browns as the wildcard teams.

See our chart below with the projected final records of all the NFC and AFC teams.
Again, we welcome comments, questions and feedback.

PossessionPoints.com Goes 12-4 in Picks in Week 12

This week PossessionPoints.com posted another successful week in our picks. Our straight up projections went 12-4 while our picks against the spread went 9-7. We believe our picks could have gone a little better had the games that went into OT had gone our way and if a hurricane hadn’t descended on Pittsburgh to louse up our spread. Oh well, that’s the fun of making projections. PossessionPoints still averages for picks between 70 and 75 percent.

NFL Big Games for Week 13

The First big game of this week is truly the first game of the week: Thursday night’s contest between the Packers and the Cowboys. While neither of these teams appear to be in any peril about winning their division or making the playoffs, this game is significant because the winner will most likely gain home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. PossessionPoints.com agrees with the odds makers who project the Cowboys to be a seven-point favorite.

The next big game, of which there are quite a few this week, is the Seahawks at the Eagles. This game will be in Philly, and PossessionPoints has the Eagles winning but not by a very large margin. The Seahawks have a two-game lead in their division, but a loss here could bring the Cardinals right on to their heels. Meanwhile, the Eagles are sitting on a 5-6 record and need a win here if they hope to revive their playoff hopes for this season. The Eagles have been aided in their playoff quest by the two recent Lions’ losses and find themselves just one game out of the number two wildcard position. We need to mention that this number wildcard spot is quite crowded. At present, there are six teams with a 5-6 record all hoping to catch the Lions who sit at 6-5 or the Giants who are at 7-4.

The one thing we can say about the Seahawks is that the Birds will win four of the remaining five games on their schedule. No, we are not psychic and don’t buy Super Bowl tickets yet, Seattle. We just looked at their schedule and noted that in their final five games, their foes include: the Eagles, Falcons, Cardinals and Ravens. Sorry, we could not resist.

The third big game on our list is the Bucs vs. Saints. The Saints trail Tampa Bay in the NFC South by two games. A New Orleans’ win would raise their record to 6-6 while dropping the Bucs to 7-5. This would put the Saints in the thick of that number two wildcard race as well as in striking distance for the division itself should the Buccaneers fall further. PossessionPoints current projections have the Saints winning this game and getting the second NFC wildcard spot with a record of 9-7. So, to put it bluntly: this game is huge for New Orleans. They blow this one, they are in deep trouble.

The Lions and Vikings game is the next important contest this week because these teams also are 5-6 and vying for that coveted second wildcard spot. Is any team not 5-6? Anyway, let’s face it. Neither the Lions nor the Vikings have a shot catching the 10-1 Packers even if Green Bay does lose this week.

Okay, on to the Browns and Cardinals. This game is big for (must we say it?) the 5-6 Cardinals as well as the 7-4 Browns. Cleveland is just one game behind the Steelers, and a win here against the Cardinals could land them in a tie with Pittsburgh should the Steelers “slip up” on their turf against the Bengals (That was our feeble attempt at humor at the weather conditions on Monday night).

Okay, no one laugh, but we cannot NOT list the Dolphins vs. Jets as one of our big games this week. This could be the Dolphins’ best hope for a victory this year. Isn’t everyone just rooting for them to win just one? What can it hurt? Even if they win, they are still in line for the number one draft pick next season.

Again, we welcome comments, feedback and opinions. Visit our site at PossessionPoints.com.

PossessionPoints.com Welcomes in Holiday Season with Three Terrific Subscription Offers

Happy Holidays to all NFL fans! We want to take the time to thank our subscribers, our blog readers and all those who offer feedback on our site and here. Have a wonderful holiday season and New Year!

If you have wondered how you would enjoy a subscription to PossessionPoints.com, this is the time to find out. We are offering special Holiday pricing so you can see what makes PossessionPoints so unique and accurate.

You can get the remainder of the 2007 season and all of 2008 for only $49.95

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As a subscriber, you receive: our weekly newsletter Points of the Week emailed to you, a weekly matchup page that projects games based on our stat straight up and against the spread, and team pages showing each NFL team's weekly and season performances with trend lines for future weeks.

Go to http://www.possessionpoints.com/, enter our site and you will be sent to our subscribe page. Happy Holidays to one and all!

The How, When and Where of the Patriots’ First Loss

What? Are we saying that the Patriots can lose this season? Well, the popular answer is “No”, and quite frankly, we at PossessionPoints.com have had the Patriots going undefeated since our season preview issue. But we wanted to have some fun, and turned the computer loose to try and figure out who could be the miracle team to beat New England.

There are a lot of factors that would go into a victory over the Patriots. First, a winning team would need a ball-controlling offense. This means that the team would have to be able to sustain long drives that result in scores – not field goals, but touchdowns. We considered in this category as potential winners the Steelers and Giants who both have shown promise in ball control and are still on the regular season schedule of the Patriots.

Next criteria, is a strong defense capable of stopping the Patriots’ offense - at least once or twice during the game. Okay, this trait has been hard to find if non-existent this season, but there are teams on their schedule who have exhibited a sound defense such as the Giants and Steelers. However, for the Giants, the loss of Mathias Kiwanuka , puts New York’s defense on thinner ice.
This may sound silly, but the third major factor in a win over the Patriots is the weather. Playing in New England on a windy, cold, blustery day could inhibit the high-powered passing offense of Tom Brady and the Patriots. Even a small dent in that offense could change the outcome of the game.

So, given all these factors and the remaining schedule of the Patriots, who did PossessionPoints.com come up with as the leading contender to beat New England? (Drum Roll Please) The Jacksonville Jaguars in an AFC Championship Game!

"What?" you say. "You didn’t even mention them in the previous paragraphs!" Well, we have solid reasons why the Patriots need to look out for the Jaguars. First, Jacksonville has earned two PossessionPoints green sweeps in a row against the Titans and Chargers plus two others in the first half of the season against the Falcons and Chiefs. What these green sweeps say is that Jacksonville understands the importance of executing long offensive drives that end in scores.
For example, the Jaguars in Week 3 opened up their game against the Broncos with an 11:45 touchdown drive. This is exactly what a team would need to do to beat the Patriots. Drives like this keep Tom Brady and the New England offense off the field and idle. On the other side of the ball, the Jaguars have earned five green defensive performances this season. To be fair, they have had three red performances as well, but overall their defense does have the capability to stop strong offenses.

Consider this fantasy scenario: It is a frozen, windy day in New England and the Jaguars win the opening toss. Jacksonville goes into their long- ball possession mode and opens the game with a touchdown after almost a 12-minute possession. Meanwhile powerless to take any action, Brady and company are on the sidelines watching almost 12 minutes of the game tick away. When the Patriots’ offense does finally get on the field, they feel a bit anxious and out of rhythm for the first time this season. In this scenario, a strong wind could also take Brady’s deep pass away from him which also diminishes his game control capabilities. While Brady is nearly perfect under pressure when he is in control of the game, a scenario like this could affect New England’s precision play and ultimate victory.

Is this a probable event? Nah. But the point is that broadcasters, fans and even NFL teams are so enamored by the Patriots this season, they are failing to take notice of teams that have the talent to derail that perfect season. Every week, we utter the words, “Wow, that was surely an upset.” Those words might well be uttered this year still about New England.

For this nightmare scenario for New England to come true, the Jaguars still have plenty of work ahead of them. First, they have to beat the Colts in their remaining game with them this season and steal the division from them. This is not an easy task. If accomplished, this would earn them a bye in the first round of the playoffs. Then, they need a victory in their first playoff game to meet the Patriots in Foxboro since New England will definitely have a home field advantage. Okay, while we admit this is a farfetched idea, the NFL is filled with science fiction scenarios that have come true. We shared our Patriots’ defeat fantasy scenario with you; we invite you to tell us who you think has the potential to upset New England. Below for your reference is the Jaguars team page from our Members’ area at PossessionPoints.com.

See our most recent article on the topic "More Thoughts on How the Patriots Can Be Beaten".

Week 11 Performance Rankings

The top five Performance Rankings for Week 11 according to PossessionPoints.com are the Patriots, Steelers, Colts, Giants and Cowboys. The Packers are number six the same as they were last week. In this week’s game, Green Bay continued their winning ways, but returned to their habit of quick strike scores which served to lower their Relative Performance Measure or RPM. Performance Rankings are based on in-game statistics that measure a team's offensive performance. These statistics take into account such elements as the scoring drive, the points scored and time of possession.

In the included chart, you will see each team, their win-loss record and the PossessionPoints measure of relative performance which is colored green, yellow or red. A green chart indicates a positive and strong team performance. A yellow chart indicates a mediocre to fair performance and a red chart tells the tale of trouble ahead.


These Performance Ratings are unique because they are based on in-game stats that are present in each game every week. Not present in these performance ratings are any opinion and or subjective measure of any type.

This week, The Bills fell from 20th to 29th courtesy of the pummeling they took from the Patriots. Even though the Jets upset the Steelers, they remained dead last in RPM. The Dolphins took one step down in ranking from 30th to 31st.

If we look at Projected Standings according to PossessionPoints.com, we see that the Cardinals are now projecting to an 11-5 record up one from their projected record last week because of their win over the Bengals. This new projection would give the Cardinals the NFC West division title with the Seahawks getting a wildcard spot. The Titans’ projected finish fell from 12-4 last week to 10-6 this week because of their loss to the Broncos on Monday night.

See our chart below with the projected final records of all the NFC and AFC teams.

NFL Big Game for Week 12

This week, at PossessionPoints.com,, we have only one game to highlight. Thanksgiving’s game between the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers is the contest that holds the most significance for the playoff picture. Does anyone ever remember a Thanksgiving game in Detroit that held so much meaning? The Lions made this game even more significant with their loss to the New York Giants last week. As it stands now, we project the Lions will lose this game against the Packers and finish the season with a 9-7 record which might very well leave them out of the playoffs.

If by chance, the Lions do win, it will raise their season record projection to 10-6 and put them right in the mix for a playoff spot. A win will still leave them well short of the Packers who we project to finish with a 14-2 record unless they lose this game, and in that case, they will finish with a 13-3 record. If you are a Lion fan, Packer fan or just interested in the whole playoff picture, we welcome your take on the Lions' possibilities. Send us a comment and tell us what you think.

PossessionPoints Week 10 NFL Performance Rankings

The top five Performance Rankings for Week 10 according to PossessionPoints.com are the Patriots, Steelers, Colts, Giants and Cowboys. The Packers come in at number six moving up significantly from the number 11 spot last week. In week 10, Green Bay’s performance lived up to their 8-1 record. Performance Rankings are based on in-game statistics that measure a team's offensive performance. These statistics take into account such elements as the scoring drive, the points scored and time of possession.

In the included chart, you will see each team, their win-loss record and the PossessionPoints measure of relative performance which is colored green, yellow or red. A green chart indicates a positive and strong team performance. A yellow chart indicates a mediocre to fair performance and a red chart tells the tale of trouble ahead.

These Performance Ratings are unique because they are based on in-game stats that are present in each game every week. Not present in these performance ratings are any opinion and or subjective measure of any type.

This week, The Titans fell down to number seven after their poor performance against the Jaguars. The Giants still managed to maintain a top-five spot in spite of their tough loss to the Cowboys.

Another team to view is the San Francisco 49ers who have sunk all the way down to the 31 slot after starting this season off with two wins. PossessionPoints did note at that time that San Francisco was the weakest of all the 2-0 teams, and they ranked 18th in spite of their unbeaten record. This is just further evidence that we measure performance that is essential to winning football games.

Last week’s games shook up some of our projected standings. For instance, with their win over the 49ers and their improved Relative Performance Measure (RPM), the Seahawks have gone from a projected 7-9 record to a projected 10-6 record. The Jaguars are another team who also improved their projected performance with their win over the Titans. Jacksonville moved up from a projected 7-9 record to a projected 11-5 record, and their rank jumped from 14th to 9th on our chart. Their RPM also climbed 12 points which is an impressive number for this time of year when already nine games have been played.

See our chart below with the projected final records of all the NFC and AFC teams.

NFL Big Games For Week 11

Last week, PossessionPoints.com highlighted NFC games that were not only of importance to those teams playing but to other teams waiting in the wings. One of the games, the Cowboys vs. Giants, solidified the Cowboys top spot in the NFC East after their defeat over the Giants. Another contest that we highlighted was the game between the Vikings and Packers, and we emphasized how this outcome would affect the fate of the Lions as well. With the Packers’ victory and the Lions’ loss in their own game against the Cardinals, Detroit finds itself in a precarious situation when it comes to winning their division. That said, let’s look ahead to this week’s big games and what teams may find themselves on the hot seat.

We start with a game between two teams whose losses last week in big games has put them in a situation where a wild card playoff berth may be their only hope for postseason play. The game between the Giants and Lions this week could seriously hurt if not end one of these team’s playoff chances. The Giants must rebound from their physical and emotional loss to the Cowboys on their own home turf while the Lions have to overcome their crushing defeat at the hands of the Arizona Cardinals. Both of these teams have 6-3 records and should have been able to take the “W” last week. Alas, neither team was up to the task. A Giants’ win would give NY a 7-3 record and keep them on track for a projected 12-4 finish by the PossessionPoints stat. A Lions’ victory would obviously harm the Giants’ chances of being in the playoffs and would also improve Detroit’s projected PossessionPoints record to at least 10-6 which would put them squarely in the playoff hunt. In fact, the most likely scenario that would result in both of these teams getting a wild card spot would be a Lions’ victory. A Lions’ win would boost their projected record to at least 10-6 and lower the Giants’ projected record to 11-5. Given the Giants’ remaining schedule, they would still be in a good position to earn a wild card spot despite this loss to the Lions. Now, we are not advocating a loss for the Giants; we are just saying for both teams to have their best playoff hopes, the Lions need to win especially since Detroit has a tougher remaining schedule based upon PossessionPoints Relative Performance Measure.

Another worthy of a mention is the AFC matchup between the Jaguars and the Chargers. Coming off of an impressive win over the Colts, the Chargers have a one-game lead in the AFC west and a 5-4 record. The Jaguars are primed and ready to pounce on the Colts who have only a one-game lead over the 6-3 Jacksonville team. A win by the Jaguars would keep them in the AFC South race and position them relatively well for a wild card at least. A win for the Chargers would keep them in the lead in their division and allow them to have high hopes for the playoffs.

We also have to make sure that we mention the heavy weight battle between the Rams and the 49ers. (Yes, we are being facetious). On the bright side, the loser of this contest enters another race: the race with the Dolphins and Jets on who gets the top draft pick! There is a lesson in this game and that is every cloud and losing season has its silver lining. If anyone cares, PossessionPoints matchups have us picking the Rams.

PossessionPoints Week 9 NFL Performance Rankings

The top five Performance Rankings according to PossessionPoints.com are the Patriots, Steelers, Colts, Titans and Giants. These Performance Rankings are based on in-game statistics that measure the team’s offensive performance. These statistics take into account such elements as the scoring drive, the points scored and time of possession.

In the included chart, you will see each team, their win-loss record and the PossessionPoints measure of relative performance which is colored green, yellow or red. A green chart indicates a positive and strong team performance. A yellow chart indicates a mediocre to fair performance and a red chart tells the tale of trouble ahead.



These Performance Ratings are unique because they are based on in-game stats that are present in each game every week. Not present in these performance ratings are any opinion and or subjective measure of any type.

In this week’s rankings, the Giants and Titans flipped places. The Giants who play the Cowboys this week are just about one-tenth of a point ahead of the Cowboys in the PossessionPoints performance rankings. You may want to see our blog below for Big Games of Week 10.

Despite their stellar 7-1 record and positive relative performance measure, the Green Bay Packers still haven’t climbed into our top 10 of Performance Rankings. They come in 11th behind the Texans. Why? The Packers need to improve their offense and net performance to move up the PossessionPoints chart. Beware Packers fans, this data is signaling that the Packers’ performance is not as dominant as their record may indicate. However, don’t despair because the Packers’ schedule from here on out is not a difficult one. PossessionPoints still projects that the Packers will finish with a 12-4 record and become division champs with the third best record in the NFC.




As for the rest of the league, we do not see any losses for the Colts or the Patriots for the remainder of the season. Surprise! Surprise! We do see one more loss for the Steelers and Titans, and this solidifies these four teams as the elite of the AFC. It is interesting to note that these four teams are the last ones in the NFL to have a green RPM of over 40 according to the PossessionPoints stat.

We remind you that so far in 2007, when a team has had a green RPM in a game (PossessionPoints net effect), it has won 95 % of the time. To learn about the PossessionPoints net effect and the PossessionPoints offense and defense stat, go to PossessionPoints.com.

NFL Big Games For Week 10

Last week, PossessionPoints.com highlighted a couple of NFC matchups whose outcomes were of dire importance for those teams. We told you how the Bucs and Eagles needed to win games if they wanted to stay in the playoff hunt, and that PossessionPoints had them forecast to lose.. Well, the Bucs won – although it was not a pretty game, but the Eagles did not. Now, it would take almost a miracle finish for the Eagles to make the playoffs. Sure they should win a few more games, but the words “Eagles” and “playoffs” won't go together in 2007.

On to this week’s big games. There are three games we need to highlight this week. Two NFC contests and one AFC. In the AFC, our big game is the one between the Steelers and Browns. Who would have thought we would have been deeming a Browns’ game as an important game nine weeks ago? However, the Browns have showed tremendous Offense even though they have been weak on defense. Despite this weakness, they have a 5-3 record and a win against the Steelers would produce a tie atop the AFC North with both teams having a 6-3 record. PossessionPoints is forecasting a Steelers’ victory mostly because of the Browns’ weakness on defense. If the Browns do pull off a victory, this could set them up as a legitimate playoff contender in the AFC. Unlike the Eagles last week, they are not necessarily out of it with a loss, but if they play to form, PossessionPoints projects they would end the season with a record of 9-7. There could be several 9-7 teams vying for a playoff spot. A win against the Steelers would push the projection to at least 10-6, and the fans in Cleveland can start thinking the unthinkable: playoffs.

In the NFC, the big games are the Vikings - Packers and the Giants - Cowboys.We probably didn't have to tell you that the Giants - Cowboys was a big game. The winner here can be thinking about winning the NFC East and perhaps home field throughout the playoffs, especially if the winner is the Cowboys. The surprise here is the PossessionPoints forecast is pointing to a Giants’ win. In this contest, if the Cowboys lose, they are still very well positioned for the playoffs in the NFC so it is not be a do or die situation. A Giant victory, as with the AFC matchup we highlighted, would bring the Giants into a tie with the Cowboys at 7-2 as that game would be a split of the season series. However, the remaining games on the schedule favor the Cowboys as the Giants still have the Patriots looming in their second half. So, a Giant victory doesn't guarantee them the NFC East, but a loss will make winning the division much more difficult.

The Vikings - Packers matchup is the final big game we want to highlight. You thought we were kidding before when we said this game, didn't you? Well we weren't. How is a matchup between a 3-5 team and a 7-1 team a big game? Well, it is big for the Vikings, and believe it or not, it is big for the Lions. Confused? Let us explain. The Vikings have been playing much better in recent games than they were earlier in the season. Adrian Peterson is setting records left and right. Because of their recent strength we were actually surprised when the PossessionPoints matchup algorithm actually pointed to the Vikings to win. Should that happen it still only puts the Vikings on track for a mediocre 8-8 season. However, there is an outside shot that would be good enough for the playoffs. But a Viking victory here would also bring the Packers back closer to the Lions. The Packers would fall to 7-2 (still a great record and they are a shoe in for the Playoffs) while the Lions would rise to 7-2 themselves if they could post a “W” over the Cardinals. That game would be our next pick for important contests to watch. If the Lions do win, the playoff picture becomes crowded for the NFC and primed for a dark horse team to come charging through. The NFL is too exciting for words!

It should be an interesting week in the NFL. Let us at PossessionPoints.com know what you think in a comment below and visit PossessionPoints.com to learn more about the PossessionPoints stat and how we use it to forecast.
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NFL Big Games for Week 9

I bet you thought we at PossessionPoints.com were going to talk about the Colts - Patriots game. Well. we're not – well, not really. Sure, we must acknowledge that this game is being played, and its outcome could determine home field advantage for the playoffs for the AFC, but you all know that already. You also know that the winner of that game could be well positioned to go 16-0 for the season, and that every broadcaster in the world will be pre-dubbing that winning team as the “As Close to Perfect as You Can Get NFL Team”. So, since there will be so much press on that game’s outcome, we aren't going to say anything more about it. Instead, we are going to highlight 2 NFC games that could have playoff implications: The Eagles - Cowboys and the Cardinals - Bucs games.

Both the Eagles and the Cardinals are 3-4, but the Eagles rank a surprising 7th on our RPM list for this week while the Cardinals are down at 14th. The surprising thing is that if both teams continue this level of performance, the Cardinals will go 12-4 and easily win their division while the Eagles will struggle to an 8-8 record and miss the playoffs. (See Chart)




How can this be? Schedules. For the remainder of the Cardinals’ season, the best team they play is currently ranked 17th -- the Lions who have a -7.9 RPM. The worst team the Cardinals play is the 32nd-ranked Rams who have an RPM of -59.4. The Eagles are not as fortunate with their schedule. They still have the #1 Patriots who have an RPM of 117.9, the #4 Giants with an RPM of 39 and the #6 Cowboys who the Eagles have to play twice and who have a current RPM of 35.6.

That is why this game is so big for the Eagles. This is a game they are picked and projected to lose. In order to make the playoffs they must reverse their fortunes in one of the games they are picked to lose. This game in Philadelphia looks to be their best shot. This game is huge for the Eagles.

But what about the Cardinals, they are expected to cruise to a playoff spot if they continue to play like they are - right? Well, don’t expect an easy victory as this game is big for their opponent- the Bucs. The Bucs are in a situation closer to the Eagles. The projected record for the Bucs is 8-8. A win here could put them in the 9-7 pack at the end of the year and keep their playoff hopes alive.

For more information on this season's projections and team records according to the PossessionPoints stat, go to PossessionPoints.com.

PossessionPoints.com Picks 12 out of 13 in Week 8

PossessionPoints.com was 12-1 in its picks of week 8. PossessionPoints.com uses only the PossessionPoints stat to come up with its picks. The stat gives the most accurate view of a team's true performance. We do not use any subjective or emotional criteria in making our picks or our Performance Rankings. If you are interested in statistical picks that have a basis in fact, go to www.possessionpoints.com