PossessionPoints Features: April 2009

Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Optimism Justified for Minnesota Vikings

At this time of year, all teams are optimistic about the upcoming season and why not? Off season trades and the NFL draft infuse new blood into sometimes tired rosters giving even the most desperate teams a feeling of hope. While we at PossessionPoints.com admire the positive attitudes that all teams have, we believe that there are some teams, more than others, who deserve to hold on to those high hopes and optimism. For us, the Minnesota Vikings are one such team.

The Vikings are coming off a season where they ranked ninth in offense, fourth in defense and fifth overall according to the PossessionPoints statistic. While our rankings may differ from the traditional total yardage-type rankings, they do display a high correlation to winning. For example, we projected the 2008 Vikings would go 9-7 and take the division title. We were a little off in that they won the division with a 10-6 record.

Based on those PossessionPoints rankings, we would have expected to see the Vikings work on offense first in the draft. So, we were not taken aback when they did exactly that drafting wide receiver Percy Harvin from Florida and offensive tackle Phil Loadholt from Oklahoma. These selections, coupled with their upgrade at backup QB with the acquisition of Sage Rosenfels (maybe starter after preseason), have prompted us to make an upward adjustment of at least five percent to Minnesota’s offensive numbers from last year.

For reference purposes, a five percent adjustment either positive or negative is considered a small adjustment in PossessionPoints. An average adjustment would range between 10 and 15 percent up or down, and a significant adjustment would be 20 percent or more in either direction.

Minnesota’s three remaining draft picks went to the defensive side of the ball, and we are not yet sure if they got any impact players. With this in mind, we are most likely to forecast that their defense will be about the same as last year. There is certainly room for improvement with the Vikings in defense since they were 22 percent behind the league- leading Ravens. However, given that they ranked fourth in defense last season by our statistic, an unchanged forecast is not all that bad. Even if they remain unchanged in PossessionPoints, they should still easily be a top-10 defense next season.

There is another factor that gives support to our belief that the Vikings should be a tough team again in 2009. By our stat from last season’s performances, the Vikings have the second easiest schedule in 2009. The difficulty is pretty balanced between home and road games as Minnesota has the fifth easiest home and the fifth easiest road schedules. (Having the Lions twice on their schedule does help).

We are long way from making our adjustments to all the teams in the league, and when we do complete the adjustments, the picture may change drastically. For instance, a significant upward adjustment in the Lions’ projected performance could spell trouble for teams who have to face a new Detroit team twice. As we get closer to the season, we will draw more a more concrete picture. As of now, our outlook for the Vikings in 2009 remains positive and hopeful.

Thursday, April 23, 2009

Will Pioli, Haley and Cassel be the "Perfect Storm" for the Kansas City Chiefs?

Is a Perfect Storm circling over Kansas City? Well, if you are a Chiefs’ fan, you are hoping that the storm not only hovers, but makes landfall as well.
In the upcoming season, Kansas City will experience a triple force: a new general manager, a new head coach, and a new franchise quarterback. For many experts, a change in one of these positions sends up a red flag, but we at PossessionPoints.com , think that this triple whammy may spark the beginning of a new and dynamic Chiefs’ team.

It is true that only Matt Cassel has actual experience in his new job. As starting quarterback for the New England Patriots, Cassel proved his physical and mental prowess when he stepped in for Tom Brady last season.

Scott Pioli has a great deal of experience in the front offices around the league including stints in Cleveland, Baltimore and New York, but this is his first GM position. With that said, Pioli was a key factor in building the Patriots into the dominating force that ruled the NFL in recent years.

Although new to head coaching, Todd Haley has paid his dues in the coaching world holding positions with the Bears, Jets, Cowboys and Cardinals. Haley was instrumental in all teams making the playoffs while he was with them. His most recent success came as offensive coordinator for the Cardinals who, as we all know, got to the Super Bowl.

Why do we bring this all up? Because we love historical parallels, and we try to learn from them. In 2008, the Dolphins also made the risky triple change when they brought in Bill Parcells as head of football operations, Tony Sparano as head coach, and Chad Pennington as starting QB.

When we did our Preseason Preview issue for the 2008 season, we adjusted our estimated performance of the Dolphins up by 10 percent which is generous for us, but not outlandish. The result of this 10 percent was that we still expected Miami to have another losing record.

However, in our 2008 Preseason Preview we also said; “Actually, the computer does give hope if the Dolphins can improve their performance 15 percent more on offense and defense. If we up their improvement to 25 percent in each category, their projected record actually vaults all the way to 10-6. Could the Dolphins be a team -- we color “Red” -- that makes the playoffs?”

We didn’t expect the Dolphins would improve on both offense and defense by 25 percent. That is an exceptional improvement. Truth be told, Miami improved by 30 percent on offense and 28% on defense, and as you know they went 11-5 and made the playoffs. In hindsight, maybe we should not have been so stingy with our upwards adjustment. We didn’t take the arrival of their “perfect storm” as seriously as we should have.

The parallels between the 2008 Dolphins and 2009 Chiefs do not end with their personnel changes. For example, there is the non-football coincidence in that Bill Parcells is Scott Pioli’s father-in-law. (Can you imagine the holiday dinners in that family? We’re guessing football is a big part of that table conversation.) Although this is an unscientific statement to make, we think that some of Bill Parcells’ magic has to rub off on Pioli.

There are other more technical parallels as well. The 2007 Dolphins ranked 20th in PossessionPoints offense with a 79 (the higher the number the better). The 2008 Chiefs ranked 24th in PossessionPoints offense with an 83. This is very close statistically.

The 2007 Dolphins ranked 32nd in PossessionPoints defense with a 122 (the lower the number the better) while the 2008 Chiefs ranked 29th in PossessionPoints defense with a122.

To give you an idea of the significance of the number range, the 2007 Patriots were the best PossessionPoints offense in the last two seasons with a value of 163 (about double the Dolphins / Chiefs number), so both teams would need to improve by 100 percent to get to the Pats’ level. The 2008 Ravens were the best defense in the last two seasons with a value of 54 which is less than half of the value posted by the Dolphins and Chiefs in 2007 and 2008.

Well, no one owns the crystal ball that says for sure that the Chiefs will transform themselves into a playoff team just as the Dolphins did. However, history can and often does repeat itself, and that perfect storm that landed in Miami in 2008, could very well be making its way to Kansas City this year.