Why Teams Should Fear the Jaguars

Back in November, we wrote a blog about how a team could beat the Patriots. Our scenario called for the Jaguars to beat the Colts and meet the Patriots in an AFC Championship game after getting a playoff bye. Alas, the victory over the Colts did not occur and the Colts own the playoff bye that we thought was essential for the Jaguars. Other than that game against the Colts, the Jaguars have performed perfectly winning six of their final seven games.

In those six victories, the Jaguars have earned five PossessionPoints Green Sweeps (See chart below). A Green Sweep represents both an effective offense and defense. For the season, the Jaguars have posted seven Green Sweeps which is more than any other team in the NFL. The Perfect-as-of-now Patriots have only posted three, and the Colts have done a little better posting four Green Sweeps.

Why are the Jaguars so effective? Jacksonville’s offense has repeatedly been able to put together successful, clock-eating long drives that have led to touchdowns or field goals. These possessions have not only put points on the scoreboard but allowed the defense to rest and be productive as well. PossessionPoints first noticed the Jaguars penchant for long-possession drives back in Week Three in their game against the Broncos. Since that time, they have become more proficient and consistent at this offense.

At PossessionPoints, we use color-coded indicators which have a direct relationship to a team’s ability to win. For example: A win in the offense column will equate to a team winning 75 percent of the time. A green in the defense column equates to a win 80 percent of the time, and a green net (difference between offensive and defensive PossessionPoints) is a win more than 90 percent of the time. With this explanation, you can see the significance of the Green Sweep and more importantly, the significance of the Jaguars’ Green Sweeps.



We hear commentators on the major sports networks now saying how nobody wants to face the Jaguars in the playoffs. This is an old tune to us as we have been saying this since early November. If teams in the playoffs are not successful in completing big plays against Jacksonville, they will find themselves going home.

The biggest weakness the Jaguars have demonstrated is their inability to stop big plays. One of the most notable examples of this was in the Steelers’ game where the Jags won but by only one touchdown despite being tied in the fourth quarter. Another “weaker” performance for the Jaguars was against the Colts in a game that would have propelled Jacksonville into first place in the division. The Jaguars earned more than twice the PossessionPoints of the Colts (224-102) but lost 28-25 due to the big play, quick-strike force of Peyton Manning which took the Jaguars defense off guard.

As always, we welcome your feedback and opinions. Enjoy the last week of the NFL regular season, and if you would like to know more about PossessionPoints, visit our website at http://www.possesssionpoints.com/ or fill in your email address on the right side of this page for free information. Just so you know, PossessionPoints.com will always respect your privacy and does not sell any email addresses.

PossessionPoints.com NFL Big Games for Week 17

The only big game in the AFC this week is the Colts vs. Titans on Sunday Night. The Colts have made it clear that they could care less about the outcome of this game. Tony Dungy will not keep Peyton Manning in the game for long, and he will rest many of his starters to keep them healthy for the playoffs. This is a big plus for the Titans who need this win to get into the playoffs.

Should the Titans lose by some strange chance to the Colts’ second and third string, the Cleveland Browns will take the Playoff Spot. If the Titans are a potential playoff team, there should be no problem securing this victory, but once again, the NFL is always full of surprises.

On the NFC side, the Redskins vs. Cowboys is probably the biggest game on the slate. As with the Titans, if the Redskins win, they secure the final playoff spot in the NFC. The Cowboys’ situation mirrors the Colts. In recent weeks, they too have suffered costly injuries and need to nurse key players back to health especially, Romo and Owens. While Wade Phillips has not mentioned how he will play his starters, it stands to reason that he will provide them with some rest to get them back to as close to 100% as possible. Unlike the Titans, the Redskins have the home field advantage.

Should the Redskins falter, the Vikings vs. Broncos game in Denver is the next big contest to watch. Should Washington lose and the Vikings win, The Vikings would get the last playoff spot. Without Washington losing, Minnesota does not stand a chance of sneaking into the playoffs.

For those of you who enjoy the real long shot or maybe a miracle would be a better term, there is another team praying that Washington and Minnesota both take a dive. That team is the New Orleans Saints who will be playing in Chicago against the Bears. This is not an easy win as Chicago has turned up their playing heat for no other reason than pride or maybe just to be a nudge to anyone who has a chance to make the playoffs.

We can’t let this blog close without mentioning the last game on this week’s schedule that has any significance. The Saturday night game where the Patriots visit the Meadowlands to visit the “how-did-they-get-so-far-playing-as-they-have” Giants. This game’s significance is only because of New England’s perfect record. We have seen the Giants pull many games out of the magic hat this year, but this one victory would truly shock us because both teams should be thinking about protecting their star players for the postseason. Although the Patriots say they have no quest for perfection, we cannot imagine that they would let the last game of “the perfect season” slip away.

This is our last Big Games blog of the regular season. After this week, we will obviously blog on the playoffs which are all big games. Also, keep in mind that PossessionPoints will blog on NFL issues and teams during the offseason.

PossessionPoints.com NFL Week 15 Performance Rankings

In looking at this week’s performance rankings, PossessionPoints.com has noted some significant movement by at least one team – the Jaguars. The Jaguars are now in the third position, and their Relative Performance Measures (RPM) has improved to 46 from last week’s 40.

In the included chart, you will see each team, their win-loss record and the PossessionPoints measure of relative performance which is colored green, yellow or red. A green chart indicates a positive and strong team performance. A yellow chart indicates a mediocre to fair performance and a red chart tells the tale of trouble ahead.



These Performance Ratings are unique because they are based on in-game stats that are present in each game every week. Not present in these performance ratings are any opinion and or subjective measure of any type.

In week 15, the Steelers have maintained their second position but their RPM has dropped from 62 down to 49. The only thing we can find to try and pin this drop on is the weather; however, the Jaguars, a Florida team, didn’t seem to have the same problems with the snow as the hometown Steelers. The Packers moved into fourth position but this wasn’t so much to them improving their RPM as it was due to the Colts’ and Cowboys’ RPM fading.

Our projected standing s now think they have the playoff picture clear. The NFC division winners are already decided and our projections have the Giants and Vikings both finishing at 10-6 and taking the other two wildcard spots. The next best teams we see finishing at 8-8. These teams have a gap of two games with two to play, so two wins would be needed to prove our standings wrong.

In the AFC, our projections have the Steelers winning the AFC North with the Jaguars and Browns getting the two AFC wildcards. Our projection has the Browns finishing 10-6, and the Titans (the only other team alive for a wildcard) we have finishing two games back at 8-8.



As always, we invite your comments and feedback. Also, if you would like to receive free information and updates, type in your name and email on the right side of the page.

PossessionPoints.com NFL Big Games for Week 16

This week, there are several games with serious implications concerning potential playoff spots. Week 15 games did clarify much of the AFC and some of the NFC although there are two 7-7 teams and one 6-8 team still chasing the Giants and Vikings for the two wildcard berths.

The first game we want to look at is the Redskins at the Vikings. If the Redskins lose this game, they are out of luck and out of the playoffs as are the Carolina Panthers. If the Vikings lose this game, the door stays open for the Panthers, and the Redskins will have a tie record of 8-7 with the Vikings, and a chance to sneak into that wildcard spot. A Redskin win would also prove to be a benefit for the New Orleans Saints – the other 7-7 team in the NFC.

So, with so much on the line for New Orleans, it is no surprise that their game against the Eagles also qualifies as a “Big Game of the Week” even though the Eagles are out of it. The Eagles’ coaching staff is planning on playing the team’s starters including Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook and Brian Dawkins. The Eagles’ coaches have made it clear that they have no intention of handing this game over to the Saints. The unknown factor in this contest is how the Eagles’ players feel about this game. They may be all for the Saints getting in the playoffs – who knows? But since the Saints ended the Eagles’ hopes in the playoffs last year, there is a pretty good chance that the Eagles may want to spoil the Saints’ chances this year. A Vikings’ win coupled with an Eagles’ win will lockdown the NFC playoff picture and give playoff berths to the Giants and Vikings.

We can assume that anything that makes the road easier for the Giants without them actually having to put forth an effort is most likely fine with the Giants. So, if they can climb in the playoffs on the coattails of the Vikings and Eagles—so be it. The Giants had their early season good fortunes, but in the past few weeks, the entire team has looked a bit shaky. While the Giants control their own destiny, this week’s game at Buffalo looks like the opportunity upon which they should seize. It would be easier in the long run to secure their playoff spot this week than next week when they would have to host and beat the Patriots. That is not the game they want to hang their playoff hat on.

On to the AFC: The excitement revolves around the Browns and the Steelers who are tied for the Division in the AFC North. This week, the Browns are at the Bengals. This game is always a high-emotion rivalry, so you can be sure the Bengals are not giving this one away. Meanwhile, the Steelers visit the St. Louis Rams who have showed some life in the last few weeks. For the Steelers, it would have been better for them to face the Rams when the Rams were smack in the middle of their 0-8 start. Now, the Rams want to prove themselves. While this shouldn’t be a tough game for Pittsburgh, the Steelers have demonstrated some proficiency in losing to weak teams. Can anyone spell J-E-T-S?

Waiting in the wings should the Steelers or Browns falter are the 8-6 Titans who would love to steal a final wildcard spot. The Titans are at home this week against the NY Jets. The Jets have been an on and off team (albeit more off than on), but the Titans need to keep their guard up if they want to continue their quest for a final wildcard spot.

If all games break just right for the teams who need the wins, then next week there might not be any big games to worry about as the playoff picture would solidify with this week’s results. As always, PossessionPoints.com welcomes your feedback and comments. By the way, HAPPY HOLIDAYS AND A HAPPY NEW YEAR!!

PossessionPoints.com NFL Week 14 Performance Rankings

In looking at this week’s performance rankings, we must note that at this time in the season there are three teams with green Relative Performance Measures (RPM) and three teams with red Relative Performance Measures. The rest of the teams have a combination of both. According to the PossessionPoints stat, on an individual game basis, we colored green any RPM number over 40. A team with a green RPM won their game 92% of the time.

In the included chart, you will see each team, their win-loss record and the PossessionPoints measure of relative performance which is colored green, yellow or red. A green chart indicates a positive and strong team performance. A yellow chart indicates a mediocre to fair performance and a red chart tells the tale of trouble ahead.



These Performance Ratings are unique because they are based on in-game stats that are present in each game every week. Not present in these performance ratings are any opinion and or subjective measure of any type.

In week 14, you will notice that the Jaguars moved up to the third position. The Steelers stayed in second place but their RPM dipped considerably due to their embarrassing loss to the Patriots. Despite their win, the Patriots’ RPM number decreased but their first place position remains untouchable. The Colts and Cowboys round out the top five with the Packers right on Dallas’ heels in sixth place followed by the Giants.

We’re interested in what you think, but we at PossessionPoints.com believe the top seven teams represent the cream of the crop of the NFL. Likewise, the bottom five represent the curdled milk of the league, and this group is led by the Dolphins, followed by the 49ers, Jets, Falcons and Rams.

In projected standings, the Cowboys and Packers are both projected to finish out the season with a 14-2 record. This would still give the Cowboys the home field advantage throughout the playoffs. To us, it looks as if the second wildcard playoff spot is literally up for grabs as our projections put four teams–the Vikings, Cardinals, Saints and Eagles – at 8-8. The Vikings truly have a leg up in that they have a winning record of 7-6 while the other three teams are 6-7 or worse. The AFC is starting to look pretty solid with the wildcard teams being the Jaguars and the Browns.

The NFL Surprises of the Year

In our pre-season preview issue, we asked the question “How do you spell strength in the NFL?” The answer was a brief one: AFC.

Well, we are sorry to say since the pre-season ended, the AFC has not lived up to its reputation as the dominating force it was touted to be. Sure, the AFC is home to the Patriots, Colts and Steelers, but game-for-game, this conference has not put up enough winning performances to be considered the NFL’s stronger conference. Let’s look at some stats and some other inter-conference surprises:

* The AFC and the NFC right now both have 104 wins and losses, which means in inter-conference games, the NFC and AFC are .500 each.

* The NFC Packers, who we didn't expect to be a playoff team - let alone a team with an 11-2 record, will most likely have a first-round bye in the playoffs.

* We expected the Cowboys to be a good team, but we didn’t expect a 12-1 record with a virtual lock on home field throughout the playoffs. In our pre-season preview issue we said we expected them to make the playoffs and win their division, but we had them at 9-7 mostly due to uncertainty surrounding their coaching change. So, I guess you can say Wade Phillips is one of the surprises of the year too.

* Now, the Patriots – they were not a surprise especially to PossessionPoints.com. We said in our preview issue that they appeared to have it all: offense, defense and coaching continuity. Since our human brains thought it was nearly impossible to go 16-0, we kept making adjustments and runs until the computer produced one loss. On the other hand, the computer expected the Ravens to be better this year, and so we had Baltimore beating the Patriots to give them that 15-1 record for the season.

During the next few weeks, we will expound on some of the other surprises that this season had in store for us all. Many of these surprises we touched upon in our pre-season issue, and while those who are not subscribers didn’t receive this issue, take heart. There is always next season to come on board and get the new preview issue plus all our other information.

A quick little note on last week’s games: PossessionPoints.com went 11-5 straight up for our picks.

PossessionPoints.com NFL Big Games for Week 15

Well, after the disappointing, one-sided game between the Steelers and Patriots last week, you may be thinking “Okay, what kind of big games can torment us this week?” Guess what? There are plenty and most of these contenders are playing for the coveted wildcard spots. In other words, if they lose this week, their postseason play is truly in jeopardy if not a mathematical impossibility.

The first big game we want to talk about is the Bills vs. Browns being played in Cleveland. Besides the uphill battle of foreign turf, the Bills are chasing those very Browns for the wildcard spot. The Browns have more than the wildcard on their minds. Cleveland is only one game behind the Steelers in the AFC North division race. This would have been a very different playoff race picture had the Steelers been able to back up Anthony Smith’s mouth and come with a win against New England. Since that did not happen, Pittsburgh has to keep a close eye on who is right behind them – the Browns.

This brings us to our next big game in the AFC, the Steelers vs. the Jaguars in Pittsburgh. We have been saying for weeks to look out for the Jaguars. This game pits two 9-4 teams against each other, and it also may be a preview of an early-round playoff game. The Jaguars can possibly avoid this playoff matchup as a win could help Cleveland steal the division from the Steelers. The Jags should approach this contest as a playoff game and use it to measure their abilities as an on-the-road team which no doubt will be their lot in the playoffs.

Now, on to the NFC! Their playoff picture is one big mess. While the division titles are pretty much decided, the wildcard race is a muddled quagmire of should-be and could-be teams. Right now, the Giants and Vikings have the upper hand with the Giants needing only one win to lock up a playoff spot. The Giants are playing at home against the Redskins – a division rival with very slim playoff hopes. The Redskins are currently sitting at 6-7, a game behind the Vikings at 7-6. However, the Lions, Cardinals and Saints are also at 6-7. A Giant win would virtually eliminate the Redskins while a Giant loss would keep the Redskin hopes alive without doing great damage to New York as they would still have two more chances to secure the playoff spot.

The Vikings vs. Bears in Minnesota is a big game but only for the Vikings. The Bears at 5-8 are starting yet another new quarterback, and their playoff hopes are as dim as the hopes of the Eagles and Panthers — the other two 5-8 teams. The Vikings have turned their season around, and their last six games were much better than their first five which is why they are in the playoff run. Our full-season statistics do not show Minnesota in a very favorable light. However, when we break it down and analyze their late-season performance vs. their early-season performance, it is obvious that the Vikings have found the bug in their program and fixed it.

The Saints vs. Cardinals in New Orleans is a matchup between two of the 6-7 teams. This is an instance where the losing team will probably stay home for the playoffs while the winner will move to a .500 record and into the thick of the playoff hunt. While Saints’ fans may have their hopes up that the Bucs are only two games in front of them at 8-5, they should not get their hopes up as the Bucs’ remaining games are against the Falcons, 49ers and Panthers – not the most difficult schedule in the league as these teams have a combined record of 11-28. We think the Bucs are pretty safe as the NFC South Champs.

If you are interested in seeing the projections of PossessionPoints.com in regard to these big games, go to our subscriber page and sign up. Special holiday pricing is available. You can also sign up for free information by giving us your name and email address located on the right side of this page. We welcome your feedback and your thoughts here on what you think are big games and why.

PossessionPoints Week 13 NFL Performance Rankings

The top five Performance Rankings for Week 13 according to PossessionPoints.com are the Patriots, Steelers, Cowboys, Colts and Giants. The Jaguars edged out the Packers for the number six spot, and they are just percentage points behind the Giants ready to pounce to take over the number five position.

Performance Rankings are based on in-game statistics that measure a team's offensive performance. These statistics take into account such elements as the scoring drive, the points scored and time of possession. In the included chart, you will see each team, their win-loss record and the PossessionPoints measure of relative performance which is colored green, yellow or red. A green chart indicates a positive and strong team performance. A yellow chart indicates a mediocre to fair performance and a red chart tells the tale of trouble ahead.



These Performance Ratings are unique because they are based on in-game stats that are present in each game every week. Not present in these performance ratings are any opinion and or subjective measure of any type.

At the bottom of the pack this week are the Dolphins, 49ers, Jets, Bills and Rams. The Jets moved out of the cellar and up three places while the Dolphins took their rightful place at the bottom of the league with their 0-12 record. It is interesting to see that as a purely stat-based measure, with no subjective criteria, PossessionPoints successfully sorts out the number one team and the number 32 team. Numerically, this gives even more credence to how the stat sorts out the teams in the middle as well as its role as a tool for projections and predictions.

Now that we have 12 weeks of the season completed, the playoff picture is starting to sort itself out. Our projected division winners are no surprise to anyone: the Cowboys, Packers, Bucs and Seahawks in the NFC, and the Patriots, Colts, Steelers and Chargers in the AFC. The tiebreakers are wear our projected standings get interesting. Currently, we project the Giants will finish with a 11-5 record and take one wildcard slot and the Cardinals will emerge from the pack of 6-6 and 5-7 teams to grab the other wildcard spot. The Cardinals can’t breathe too easily because we see the Vikings as right on their heels, and one slip up by the Cardinals could cost them the playoff spot.

In the AFC, it looks like the Jaguars have a pretty good chance at one wildcard while the other wildcard spot appears to be a tossup between the Browns and Titans which would result in a tiebreaker game if our projections hold true.

NFL Big Games for Week 14

We guess it is no mystery that the contest between the Patriots and Steelers is the most important game of the week – at least for the Steelers. The Patriots have their season wrapped up and are just looking to keep their perfect veneer. On the other hand, the Steelers have yet to lock up their division and hold just a two-game lead over the Browns. A Pittsburgh win would almost secure the division title and keep them close on the heels of the Colts for the second, first-round bye in the playoffs. From a PossessionPoints.com view, this is a battle of two outstanding teams with the number offense in the Patriots matched up against the number defense in the Steelers. If Pittsburgh could avoid those damaging turnovers, they could give New England their third, close encounter with defeat in a row.

The next big game is the Bears vs. Redskins. Redskins will be at home for this matchup of two 5-7 teams that have a great deal on the line. It’s hard to believe that this is considered a big game, but there is a second wildcard in the NFC that is very much up for grabs and in reach of a team with a 5-7 record. From a PossessionPoints view, we kind of like the Redskins in this matchup. If you would like to know the rest of our matchups, see our subscription page at http://www.possessionpoints.com/.

The third big game on our list is the Colts vs. Ravens game in Baltimore. Will the Ravens be recharged from their near victory over the Patriots or will they still be so angry that they screw up this game? Hard to tell. However, this contest is important for the Colts because they hold a two-game lead in their division over the Jaguars but only a one-game lead over the Steelers for the second bye in the first-round of playoffs.

Finally, we have the battle of the Jersey Turnpike: The New York Giants visit the Eagles at the Linc in Philadelphia. The Giants hope to lock up their wildcard spot by moving to 9-4 while the Eagles who are currently 5-7, hope to hold on to playoff hopes and become 6-7. Right now in the NFC there are three teams with 6-6 records: the Vikings, Lions and Cardinals and five teams with 5-7 records: Eagles, Redskins, Bears and Panthers. All are hoping for a miracle and get the one remaining wildcard. The real miracle would be if the Giants fell this week to the Eagles and the next three weeks which would open a wildcard to one of these other nine teams. How mediocre can the NFC possibly be that losing records are still looking for a playoff dream? That is this season in the NFL.

For the record, PossessionPoints favors the Cardinals to emerge from the nine and get the last remaining wildcard spot, but the Vikings are right on their heels by our projections and would scoop it up if the Cardinals should stumble. If they both fail, it’s anyone’s guess who shows up for a playoff game.

Tell us who you think would be the wildcard of the NFC. Once again, if you go to PossessionPoints and sign up, you can see our projected standings by division.

More Thoughts on How the Patriots Can Be Beaten

In August, when we published our Preseason Preview Issue for our PossessionPoints.com subscribers, we predicted the Patriots would go 15-1 with one loss to the Baltimore Ravens. Now, since that time, we have had our doubts that this would occur because the Ravens have not lived up to their potential or their 2006 performance. However, this week proved that if a team like the Ravens does perform, they can beat the Patriots even without help from referees.

The essential ingredients in the formula for victory over New England are: a strong offense who can carry out long, time-consuming drives; a good to excellent running game; a hard-hitting defensive secondary to intimidate and throw the Patriots’ receivers off their routs; and as we mentioned before, a strong wind to curtail the aerial attack of the great and talented Tom Brady; and some ability from the defensive line to put pressure on Brady so he doesn’t have all day to find a receiver.

If you watched the Baltimore – Patriots game this week, you would have seen how big a role the wind played in Brady’s performance. Granted, the Patriots did adapt and New England put together a heck of a running and short passing game with Laurence Maroney as a key player, but you could tell not having Brady’s long passes did affect the confidence of the Patriots’ team.

So, are the Steelers this week capable of pulling out the ultimate victory? They could be as they have a few weapons in their favor, and to be honest, the Patriots have not looked either unshakable or unbeatable in the last two weeks. A few breaks their way was the difference between New England posting a “W” or taking home their first loss.

In Pittsburgh’s corner, we have Willie Parker at Running Back and Troy Polamalu, a hard-hitting strong safety. A problem may arise in that Polamalu has been injured and missed last week’s game against the Bengals. Another problem is that the Steelers have performed erratically this season especially in three of their losses and one of their wins. Their offense seems to be a little out of sync and having a hard time finishing their opponents off. If they are to beat the Patriots’ this week, they will most likely need a zero-turnover game and a top performance by Parker and a few objective refs would help.

PossessionPoints ranks the Steelers defense at number one against New England’s offense which is ranked number one. The Steelers offense comes in at number three and the Patriots’ defense at number 10. This could be an exciting match, but we think the Patriots are homesick for those quiet games where they just tore everyone apart. Those days may be done as the season’s grows closer. Everybody wants to be the team to take down the king and beat the unbeaten. Anyone have a weather report for Foxboro this weekend?

If you haven't read it already, be sure to read our first article on this topic: "The How, When and Where of the Patriots’ First Loss".