Thursday, September 25, 2008

NFL BIG GAMES FOR WEEK 4

This week, the big games feature Division rivalries where teams off to a surprising good start must prove their mettle against the expected favorites.

The first game on our list is the Ravens – Steelers. The 2-0 Ravens are playing in Pittsburgh against the 2-1 Steelers. The Steelers are hurting since losing their top Running Back Willie Parker to an injury. Also hurting but expected to play is Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger who took a beating from the Philadelphia Eagles last week.

The Ravens have become a surprise around the NFL as well. They were expected to continue their horrible 2007 season this year, but Baltimore looks more like the 2006strong defensive team that kept opposing offenses frustrated. The Ravens are a 7-point underdog, so it appears they do not have believers quite yet. A win this week would inspire fans and football pundits to give these Birds the respect they desire and deserve.

The other big game is the Redskins at the Cowboys. The Redskins are another team that has surprised the experts. Now 2-1, they must face their 3-0 Division rivals in Dallas. We are confident that the Redskins coaching staff is studying films of last week’s Dallas-Packer game to figure out what the Packers did to shut down Terrell Owens which is something that Washington has not been able to do since T.O has been a Cowboy. Most prognosticators have picked the Redskins to finish fourth in this Division. However, a win this week would throw many of these projections up in the air. Like the Ravens, the Redskins are a big underdog – an 11.5-point underdog to be exact. Based on the PossessionPoints.com Performance Rankings, we hold more hope for the Ravens than the Redskins. The Ravens are currently ranked 9th while the Steelers are ranked 15th. The Cowboys hold the 8th spot while the Redskins are ranked 20th.

Wednesday, September 24, 2008

NFL Performance Rankings Week 3

The top five Performance Rankings according to PossessionPoints.com for Week 3 are the Bills, Titans, Vikings, Eagles and Giants. If you are surprised to see the Bills take the top spot in the Performance Rankings, you are not alone. However, this is no fluke. The Bills have earned this top spot according to the PossessionPoints.com data. Other noteworthy and previously rare additions to the top five are the Titans and Vikings. This season is starting out as one surprise after another. These Performance Rankings are based on in-game statistics that measure the team’s offensive performance. These statistics take into account such elements as the scoring drive, the points scored and time of possession.

It is always interested to note who the bottom five teams are. These are the teams that need to shake things up a bit if they hope to make the playoffs. Jets’ fans may be disheartened to find their team in the bottom five especially with all the hope that surrounded the acquisition of Brett Favre as their new leader. While we are not the least bit surprised to see the Chiefs, Lions and Rams in the bottom five, we still harbor hopes for the Texans. We think this team has more talent than it has shown, and we expect to see improvement and some wins in the near future.

Perhaps, the biggest stunner in this week’s Performance Rankings is the position of the Indianapolis Colts who are just a hair out of the bottom five. Last season, it was almost impossible to bump the Colts out of the top 5 in the Performance Rankings. My, how quickly teams can fall!

Another surprise is that the undefeated Cowboys take the eighth spot. Many would have thought they would occupy one of the top five places, but tough games with the Eagles and the Packers brought down their performance measure a bit.

In the included chart, you will see each team, their win-loss record and the PossessionPoints measure of relative performance which is colored green, yellow or red. A green chart indicates a positive and strong team performance. A yellow chart indicates a mediocre to fair performance and a red chart screams, “Uh, oh. We are in trouble.”



These Performance Ratings are unique because they are based on in-game stats that are present in each game every week. Not present in these performance ratings are any opinion and or subjective measure of any type.

Wednesday, September 17, 2008

NFL Big Games for Week 3

This week, there are a couple of big games that warrant attention. Both of the ones we want to talk about involve teams that find themselves surprisingly 0-2 after the first two weeks of the season. This losing record makes their Week 3 matchups very important to their season survival.

First on the PossessionPoints.com Big Game List is the Seahawks vs. Rams. Who would have dreamed that the Rams would be talked about as contenders in a big game this season? Both these teams are 0-2, and while many fans aren’t surprised by the Rams’ situation, they are surprised that the Seahawks have dug themselves into such a big hole. If the Seahawks continue their downward spiral, they might as well start daydreaming about next season with new Coach Jim Mora because this season would have most likely slipped beyond their control. PossessionPoints.com doesn’t see the Seahawks losing to the Rams and neither does Las Vegas who has them as a 9.5 point favorite.

The Chargers and Jets are our next big game. Our hearts go out to the Chargers as they must feel snake bit after the first two games. They were two seconds and one referee’s whistle from being 2-0. Whatever the circumstances, the Chargers are in need of a win badly. However, they are facing a team that the Broadcasters have drooled over since Brett Favre joined their ranks and pulled out the big (sarcasm) win over the Dolphins in Week 1. Once again, neither PossessionPoints nor Las Vegas is too worried about the Chargers in this game. We think the combination of hunger and need will be enough for San Diego to defeat any miracles the Jets might have up their sleeves. However, given the way this season has so far gone for the Chargers, one never knows.

NFL Performance Rankings - Week 2

The top five Performance Rankings according to PossessionPoints.com are the Cardinals, Giants, Cowboys, Titans and Patriots. This is the first time since the inception of PossessionPoints.com that the Cardinals have earned the top spot. These Performance Rankings are based on in-game statistics that measure the team’s offensive performance. These statistics take into account such elements as the scoring drive, the points scored and time of possession.

It is always interested to note who the bottom five teams are. These are the teams that need to improve greatly if they are going to aspire to any kind of winning season. This week, the bottom five teams are the Bengals, Lions, Chiefs and Texans. The Texans have only played one game so a big turn around is still possible with them.

At this time in the season, we always like to identify the best 0-2 team. This year, there are two 0-2 teams that measure out on the positive side of the performance rankings: the Vikings who came in at 10 and the Chargers who came in at 14.

In the included chart, you will see each team, their win-loss record and the PossessionPoints measure of relative performance which is colored green, yellow or red. A green chart indicates a positive and strong team performance. A yellow chart indicates a mediocre to fair performance and a red chart tells the tale of trouble ahead.

These Performance Ratings are unique because they are based on in-game stats that are present in each game every week. Not present in these performance ratings are any opinion and or subjective measure of any type.

Saturday, September 13, 2008

Excessive Celebration Rule Has to Go in College Football

The college sports broadcasters are still talking about last week’s ridiculous excessive celebration call against Washington which literally cost the Huskies the game against Brigham Young. This week another excessive celebration call was called against Penn State because a player flipped the ball lightly after scoring a touchdown, and although it was not a game-ending penalty, this penalty call was nonetheless asinine.

While it is true that PossessionPoints.com focuses only on NFL, we felt the need to talk about the stupid rules that affect players who may or may not go on to the NFL. These are college kids playing a physical and emotional sport. Have we become so encrusted in political correctness that celebrating an accomplishment such as a touchdown is considered unsportsmanlike? In both instances, neither team that was penalized threw their scores in the face of their competition. They hugged their teammates in excitement and then quickly moved off the field. Yes, both players from both teams did flip the ball up in the air, but not at any opposing player or at any official.

If this rule is to stand, what is next? If a college baseball or softball player hits a grand slam, should teammates not be allowed to greet their player at home plate and acknowledge this accomplishment? How about soccer goals? Should teammates just pretend a goal didn’t take place because it might hurt the opposing team’s feelings?

Well, if that’s the case, let’s move the arrogance of celebrating a job well done into the academic world. Let’s do away with Dean’s Lists and awards at graduation. Surely, the graduates who do not achieve high academic grades will feel badly because they will not be recognized for their lackluster academic performance. I guess if you follow the thinking of the NCAA rule makers, recognition of any achievement might emotionally cripple the lives of those who don’t share in the same success.

Coaches go over the rights and wrongs of celebration with their players every year. I do not know of one college program that teaches their players to purposely flaunt their goals and scores in the faces of their opposition. Sportsmanship has always been a key part of college athletics and few programs have fallen short of showing respect to their competition. This excessive celebration rule is another example of how too many regulations ruin a good thing. The NCAA’s rule and willingness of the officials to over- enforce this rule dishonors the players and the games and their accomplishments.

Do away with this rule and let the players have the excitement of the game back.

Thursday, September 11, 2008

Good Things Can Happen When History Repeats Itself Especially in the NFL

When Bill Parcells was Coach of the Giants, he recruited from University of Notre Dame, a 6’4”, 255-pound Tight End named Mark Bavarro, an Italian-American who hailed from Massachusetts. Known for his blocking skills and his ability to hold on to even the toughest passes, Bavarro was a key reason why the Giants won the 1986 Super Bowl.

Fast forward 20 years to 2006. Bill Parcells set up shop as Head Coach of the Dallas Cowboys. In the draft, the Cowboys picked a 6’4”, 245-pound Tight End – another Italian- American and another Notre Dame grad named Anthony Fasano. Fasano proved to be a capable Tight End although he did not post as many impressive stats as Bavarro. However, Fasano was part of the Romo-Owens offense which also included another stellar Tight End named Jason Whitten. This talent pool left little room for Tight End super performances by Fasano.

Now, two years later, Bill Parcells is Head of Operations of the Dolphins and guess who came with him to Miami? Anthony Fasano. How do we think Fasano will fare in Miami? We think pretty well. He is on an offense with Chad Pennington who is not quite the long passer that Romo is. Could this mean that Fasano will have more opportunity to make game-altering receptions and possibly become Parcells’ next Mark Bavarro?

Rookie Running Back Steve Slaton was a force to be reckoned with in the Catholic High School League in Philadelphia. In his senior year, he accepted a scholarship to University of Maryland. However, a few weeks before he was set to go play for the Terrapins, he got word that the school reneged on his scholarship. After a quick and desperate search for a new school, Slaton found a home at West Virginia University. Although relieved that he found a team who liked his talent, Slaton knew his playing time would be limited at best. He was the number four Running Back on the team. But that crafty fickle finger of fate was not about to give up on Slaton. Within the first weeks of the start of the season, injuries sidelined all those players who were ahead of Slaton on the team bench. By week four, Slaton had entrenched himself as a starter for West Virginia.

Fast forward three years. Steve Slaton entered the NFL draft after his junior year. In the third round, he was taken by the Texans. Again, Slaton realized that he was pretty far down on the Running Back depth chart. In fact, he was the fifth Running Back of the Texans. Some experts thought Slaton would get the axe before the season opened. At PossessionPoints.com, we referred to Slaton as our “Super Sleeper” having watched him climb through the ranks to become a well-deserved star at West Virginia. We wondered if history would repeat itself again. Guess what? It did. The Texans lost their “starters” to injuries and, lo and behold, Steve Slaton will get another chance to showcase his amazing talent. Isn’t it funny how history or fate or luck can make or break a career?

Wednesday, September 10, 2008

NFL Week 1 Performance Rankings - the 2008 Season

Week 1 of the 2008 football season is now done, and our performance rankings are already interesting. After the first week, there were 10 teams with green Performance Rankings, 12 teams with yellow and 10 with red. As the season progresses, the yellow Performance Rankings will increase. The top five Performance Rankings for Week 1 according to PossessionPoints.com are the Eagles, Steelers, Broncos, Cardinals and Giants. What a far cry from last year when the Patriots and Cowboys occupied the top spots almost every week! Don’t despair if you are from New England or Dallas as both teams still hold spots in the top 10. The bottom five teams are the Redskins, 49ers, Raiders, Texans and Rams. These Performance Rankings are based on in-game statistics that measure a team's offensive and defensive performance. These statistics take into account such elements as the scoring drive, the points scored and time of possession.

In the included chart, you will see each team, their win-loss record and the PossessionPoints measure of relative performance which is colored green, yellow or red. A green chart indicates a positive and strong team performance. A yellow chart indicates a mediocre to fair performance and a red chart tells the tale of trouble ahead.



These Performance Rankings are unique because they are based on in-game stats that are present in each game every week. Not present in these Performance Rankings are any opinion and or subjective measure of any type. Of course, keep in mind that Week 1 Performance Rankings are based solely on last week’s game

One of the teams that is a PossessionPoints favorite to make the Super Bowl, the New Orleans Saints, disappointed us with a Yellow with a 22.02 Performance Ranking despite winning the game. They earned only the 13th spot in the Performance Rankings.

Thursday, September 4, 2008

Fantasy Football Expected Values

This is the last tutorial video of our series about how PossessionPoints.com can enhance your football experience. This video focuses on our unique Fantasy information that can help Fantasy Players win. Enjoy


Big Games of Week 1 of 2008

So you are thinking, “What Big Games? It is week 1. It doesn’t matter one way or another what happens in any games this week.”

Well, to some degree you are right, as one loss isn’t going to ruin any team’s season. Just look at the Giants last season. They started 0-2 and won the Super Bowl, so what does this week matter?

The regular season is only 16 games long and every win is precious. Every win puts your team one step closer to its dream of post season play and perhaps the Super Bowl. Plus, the confidence that can be gained in a couple of early wins can’t be underestimated. Would the Packers, a team full of youth last season (other than Favre) had the season it had in 2007 had the Eagles caught a punt in their first game of the season and actually won that game? And with one more win the Eagles would have been 9-7 instead of 8-8 and perhaps in the playoffs as the wild card instead of the Redskins. So, while it may seem unimportant at the time, what happens in week 1 could turn out to be the game your team needed to make the playoffs.

With that said, let’s highlight a couple of games that could make the difference of making or missing the playoffs. We start with Thursday night’s game between the Giants and Redskins. The Giants are fresh off their Super Bowl win, but they are starting the season with a division opponent. They play in perhaps the toughest division in the NFL (AFC South fans have a good counter argument), so every win or loss could be crucial. Our preseason preview has the Giants as the second wild card team with a 10-6 record, and it also has them them winning this opening game as does our Match Up Page which is based on preseason performance data. A loss in this game and a potential 9-7 record could cost the Giants a return to the playoffs. They could pick up a win in a future game we are expecting them to lose, but the Giants are the Champions and no matter what their record is, other teams want to beat the defending Champs. Any shake in confidence this early in the season or any loss could make them realize that 2008 is not 2007, and that little doubt could spiral a team down quickly.

Another big game on the slate this week is the game between the Saints and the Bucs. The Bucs won the division last season but many prognostications including our preseason preview have great things forecast for the Saints. Our preview issue is projecting a 13-3 mark with the Saints winning the opening day contest with the Bucs. However, our Match Up page does have the Bucs taking this game. So, if the Bucs win at New Orleans, Tampa Bay could pave the way for a better season than we currently expect. We forecast them to be 7-9, but this win would bring up them to 8-8. Obviously, nothing is set in stone about our preseason forecasts, but they have served as a good guide in the past and we expect the same again.

The final “big game” we want to talk about is the Jaguars vs. Titans. Our preseason forecast went out on a limb here and forecast the Jags to unseat the Colts as the top of this division. Our preseason issue also has the Titans winning, but our Match Up page (again data based on preseason performance) has the Jags taking this contest. However, it also forecast the AFC South to be the “other” division where every team plays .500 or better. This game could show us if the Jags are all that our numbers thought they could be or if the Titans are the team that might possibly emerge on the top of the AFC South. At this time, we don’t think the outcome of this particular game will affect the playoff chances of either team. We think they both make it, but it could be the signal for which team poses the greatest threat to take the division away from the Colts who seem to win it every year.

Each week, PossessionPoints.com will highlight games we think will be important in terms of the playoffs and you can see from our discussions above that even in week 1 games can be important. Rest assured, every week there will be at least 1 big game and PossessionPoints will highlight it, bring you our analysis and tell you what the outcome may mean for the teams. Let’s have a great 2008!

Fantasy Football - The Dynamic Duo

So, you had your first draft and now you are waiting for your Fantasy League to go into full swing. People sweat over their first picks, but it is really the subsequent selections week after week that decide whether your team is a winner or a dud.

For years now, the same methods of picking Fantasy teams have held their course. It’s human nature to trust the traditional lists that have been put out by the “Powers that Be” in football. Is there a non-traditional way of picking Fantasy players?

What if out there somewhere loomed a non-traditional, mathematical process that allowed you to see what your potential Fantasy teams faced not only on a weekly basis but on a four-week basis or the remainder of the season basis?

You think that is impossible, but mathematics is an amazing thing. Many sports fans forget about the mathematics involved in football. Oh sure, they can spout statistics after the fact, but they have no idea where those stats come from. Instead, they push the math aside and go with their gut. Now, if you are psychic, go with the gut. But for the rest of us who may lack the sixth sense, we need to let go of the hunches method and find a method that will help us figure out our Fantasy team best.

The idea of Math and Fantasy Football may make a lot of us cringe. Most of us have lived in the hope that what we learned in high school Algebra and Calculus would never have an effect on our lives – ever! But guess what? We do need that math. That math has gone into everything we use from the coffeemaker that gets us going in the morning to the plasma TV that settles us in for the night. If you are so willing to concede the need for the math that goes into these products, why not concede the need for the math that goes into something as entertaining as Fantasy Football?

So, the idea is to embrace mathematics and learn what it can do for you. Appreciate the value of mathematics. It’s a beautiful thing. possessionpoints.com

Monday, September 1, 2008

What our Match Up Page Can Do For You

We hope you enjoy the third video of our series, "What our Match Up Page Can Do For You!"