Why Teams Should Fear the Jaguars

Back in November, we wrote a blog about how a team could beat the Patriots. Our scenario called for the Jaguars to beat the Colts and meet the Patriots in an AFC Championship game after getting a playoff bye. Alas, the victory over the Colts did not occur and the Colts own the playoff bye that we thought was essential for the Jaguars. Other than that game against the Colts, the Jaguars have performed perfectly winning six of their final seven games.

In those six victories, the Jaguars have earned five PossessionPoints Green Sweeps (See chart below). A Green Sweep represents both an effective offense and defense. For the season, the Jaguars have posted seven Green Sweeps which is more than any other team in the NFL. The Perfect-as-of-now Patriots have only posted three, and the Colts have done a little better posting four Green Sweeps.

Why are the Jaguars so effective? Jacksonville’s offense has repeatedly been able to put together successful, clock-eating long drives that have led to touchdowns or field goals. These possessions have not only put points on the scoreboard but allowed the defense to rest and be productive as well. PossessionPoints first noticed the Jaguars penchant for long-possession drives back in Week Three in their game against the Broncos. Since that time, they have become more proficient and consistent at this offense.

At PossessionPoints, we use color-coded indicators which have a direct relationship to a team’s ability to win. For example: A win in the offense column will equate to a team winning 75 percent of the time. A green in the defense column equates to a win 80 percent of the time, and a green net (difference between offensive and defensive PossessionPoints) is a win more than 90 percent of the time. With this explanation, you can see the significance of the Green Sweep and more importantly, the significance of the Jaguars’ Green Sweeps.



We hear commentators on the major sports networks now saying how nobody wants to face the Jaguars in the playoffs. This is an old tune to us as we have been saying this since early November. If teams in the playoffs are not successful in completing big plays against Jacksonville, they will find themselves going home.

The biggest weakness the Jaguars have demonstrated is their inability to stop big plays. One of the most notable examples of this was in the Steelers’ game where the Jags won but by only one touchdown despite being tied in the fourth quarter. Another “weaker” performance for the Jaguars was against the Colts in a game that would have propelled Jacksonville into first place in the division. The Jaguars earned more than twice the PossessionPoints of the Colts (224-102) but lost 28-25 due to the big play, quick-strike force of Peyton Manning which took the Jaguars defense off guard.

As always, we welcome your feedback and opinions. Enjoy the last week of the NFL regular season, and if you would like to know more about PossessionPoints, visit our website at http://www.possesssionpoints.com/ or fill in your email address on the right side of this page for free information. Just so you know, PossessionPoints.com will always respect your privacy and does not sell any email addresses.

PossessionPoints.com NFL Big Games for Week 17

The only big game in the AFC this week is the Colts vs. Titans on Sunday Night. The Colts have made it clear that they could care less about the outcome of this game. Tony Dungy will not keep Peyton Manning in the game for long, and he will rest many of his starters to keep them healthy for the playoffs. This is a big plus for the Titans who need this win to get into the playoffs.

Should the Titans lose by some strange chance to the Colts’ second and third string, the Cleveland Browns will take the Playoff Spot. If the Titans are a potential playoff team, there should be no problem securing this victory, but once again, the NFL is always full of surprises.

On the NFC side, the Redskins vs. Cowboys is probably the biggest game on the slate. As with the Titans, if the Redskins win, they secure the final playoff spot in the NFC. The Cowboys’ situation mirrors the Colts. In recent weeks, they too have suffered costly injuries and need to nurse key players back to health especially, Romo and Owens. While Wade Phillips has not mentioned how he will play his starters, it stands to reason that he will provide them with some rest to get them back to as close to 100% as possible. Unlike the Titans, the Redskins have the home field advantage.

Should the Redskins falter, the Vikings vs. Broncos game in Denver is the next big contest to watch. Should Washington lose and the Vikings win, The Vikings would get the last playoff spot. Without Washington losing, Minnesota does not stand a chance of sneaking into the playoffs.

For those of you who enjoy the real long shot or maybe a miracle would be a better term, there is another team praying that Washington and Minnesota both take a dive. That team is the New Orleans Saints who will be playing in Chicago against the Bears. This is not an easy win as Chicago has turned up their playing heat for no other reason than pride or maybe just to be a nudge to anyone who has a chance to make the playoffs.

We can’t let this blog close without mentioning the last game on this week’s schedule that has any significance. The Saturday night game where the Patriots visit the Meadowlands to visit the “how-did-they-get-so-far-playing-as-they-have” Giants. This game’s significance is only because of New England’s perfect record. We have seen the Giants pull many games out of the magic hat this year, but this one victory would truly shock us because both teams should be thinking about protecting their star players for the postseason. Although the Patriots say they have no quest for perfection, we cannot imagine that they would let the last game of “the perfect season” slip away.

This is our last Big Games blog of the regular season. After this week, we will obviously blog on the playoffs which are all big games. Also, keep in mind that PossessionPoints will blog on NFL issues and teams during the offseason.

PossessionPoints.com NFL Week 15 Performance Rankings

In looking at this week’s performance rankings, PossessionPoints.com has noted some significant movement by at least one team – the Jaguars. The Jaguars are now in the third position, and their Relative Performance Measures (RPM) has improved to 46 from last week’s 40.

In the included chart, you will see each team, their win-loss record and the PossessionPoints measure of relative performance which is colored green, yellow or red. A green chart indicates a positive and strong team performance. A yellow chart indicates a mediocre to fair performance and a red chart tells the tale of trouble ahead.



These Performance Ratings are unique because they are based on in-game stats that are present in each game every week. Not present in these performance ratings are any opinion and or subjective measure of any type.

In week 15, the Steelers have maintained their second position but their RPM has dropped from 62 down to 49. The only thing we can find to try and pin this drop on is the weather; however, the Jaguars, a Florida team, didn’t seem to have the same problems with the snow as the hometown Steelers. The Packers moved into fourth position but this wasn’t so much to them improving their RPM as it was due to the Colts’ and Cowboys’ RPM fading.

Our projected standing s now think they have the playoff picture clear. The NFC division winners are already decided and our projections have the Giants and Vikings both finishing at 10-6 and taking the other two wildcard spots. The next best teams we see finishing at 8-8. These teams have a gap of two games with two to play, so two wins would be needed to prove our standings wrong.

In the AFC, our projections have the Steelers winning the AFC North with the Jaguars and Browns getting the two AFC wildcards. Our projection has the Browns finishing 10-6, and the Titans (the only other team alive for a wildcard) we have finishing two games back at 8-8.



As always, we invite your comments and feedback. Also, if you would like to receive free information and updates, type in your name and email on the right side of the page.

PossessionPoints.com NFL Big Games for Week 16

This week, there are several games with serious implications concerning potential playoff spots. Week 15 games did clarify much of the AFC and some of the NFC although there are two 7-7 teams and one 6-8 team still chasing the Giants and Vikings for the two wildcard berths.

The first game we want to look at is the Redskins at the Vikings. If the Redskins lose this game, they are out of luck and out of the playoffs as are the Carolina Panthers. If the Vikings lose this game, the door stays open for the Panthers, and the Redskins will have a tie record of 8-7 with the Vikings, and a chance to sneak into that wildcard spot. A Redskin win would also prove to be a benefit for the New Orleans Saints – the other 7-7 team in the NFC.

So, with so much on the line for New Orleans, it is no surprise that their game against the Eagles also qualifies as a “Big Game of the Week” even though the Eagles are out of it. The Eagles’ coaching staff is planning on playing the team’s starters including Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook and Brian Dawkins. The Eagles’ coaches have made it clear that they have no intention of handing this game over to the Saints. The unknown factor in this contest is how the Eagles’ players feel about this game. They may be all for the Saints getting in the playoffs – who knows? But since the Saints ended the Eagles’ hopes in the playoffs last year, there is a pretty good chance that the Eagles may want to spoil the Saints’ chances this year. A Vikings’ win coupled with an Eagles’ win will lockdown the NFC playoff picture and give playoff berths to the Giants and Vikings.

We can assume that anything that makes the road easier for the Giants without them actually having to put forth an effort is most likely fine with the Giants. So, if they can climb in the playoffs on the coattails of the Vikings and Eagles—so be it. The Giants had their early season good fortunes, but in the past few weeks, the entire team has looked a bit shaky. While the Giants control their own destiny, this week’s game at Buffalo looks like the opportunity upon which they should seize. It would be easier in the long run to secure their playoff spot this week than next week when they would have to host and beat the Patriots. That is not the game they want to hang their playoff hat on.

On to the AFC: The excitement revolves around the Browns and the Steelers who are tied for the Division in the AFC North. This week, the Browns are at the Bengals. This game is always a high-emotion rivalry, so you can be sure the Bengals are not giving this one away. Meanwhile, the Steelers visit the St. Louis Rams who have showed some life in the last few weeks. For the Steelers, it would have been better for them to face the Rams when the Rams were smack in the middle of their 0-8 start. Now, the Rams want to prove themselves. While this shouldn’t be a tough game for Pittsburgh, the Steelers have demonstrated some proficiency in losing to weak teams. Can anyone spell J-E-T-S?

Waiting in the wings should the Steelers or Browns falter are the 8-6 Titans who would love to steal a final wildcard spot. The Titans are at home this week against the NY Jets. The Jets have been an on and off team (albeit more off than on), but the Titans need to keep their guard up if they want to continue their quest for a final wildcard spot.

If all games break just right for the teams who need the wins, then next week there might not be any big games to worry about as the playoff picture would solidify with this week’s results. As always, PossessionPoints.com welcomes your feedback and comments. By the way, HAPPY HOLIDAYS AND A HAPPY NEW YEAR!!

PossessionPoints.com NFL Week 14 Performance Rankings

In looking at this week’s performance rankings, we must note that at this time in the season there are three teams with green Relative Performance Measures (RPM) and three teams with red Relative Performance Measures. The rest of the teams have a combination of both. According to the PossessionPoints stat, on an individual game basis, we colored green any RPM number over 40. A team with a green RPM won their game 92% of the time.

In the included chart, you will see each team, their win-loss record and the PossessionPoints measure of relative performance which is colored green, yellow or red. A green chart indicates a positive and strong team performance. A yellow chart indicates a mediocre to fair performance and a red chart tells the tale of trouble ahead.



These Performance Ratings are unique because they are based on in-game stats that are present in each game every week. Not present in these performance ratings are any opinion and or subjective measure of any type.

In week 14, you will notice that the Jaguars moved up to the third position. The Steelers stayed in second place but their RPM dipped considerably due to their embarrassing loss to the Patriots. Despite their win, the Patriots’ RPM number decreased but their first place position remains untouchable. The Colts and Cowboys round out the top five with the Packers right on Dallas’ heels in sixth place followed by the Giants.

We’re interested in what you think, but we at PossessionPoints.com believe the top seven teams represent the cream of the crop of the NFL. Likewise, the bottom five represent the curdled milk of the league, and this group is led by the Dolphins, followed by the 49ers, Jets, Falcons and Rams.

In projected standings, the Cowboys and Packers are both projected to finish out the season with a 14-2 record. This would still give the Cowboys the home field advantage throughout the playoffs. To us, it looks as if the second wildcard playoff spot is literally up for grabs as our projections put four teams–the Vikings, Cardinals, Saints and Eagles – at 8-8. The Vikings truly have a leg up in that they have a winning record of 7-6 while the other three teams are 6-7 or worse. The AFC is starting to look pretty solid with the wildcard teams being the Jaguars and the Browns.

The NFL Surprises of the Year

In our pre-season preview issue, we asked the question “How do you spell strength in the NFL?” The answer was a brief one: AFC.

Well, we are sorry to say since the pre-season ended, the AFC has not lived up to its reputation as the dominating force it was touted to be. Sure, the AFC is home to the Patriots, Colts and Steelers, but game-for-game, this conference has not put up enough winning performances to be considered the NFL’s stronger conference. Let’s look at some stats and some other inter-conference surprises:

* The AFC and the NFC right now both have 104 wins and losses, which means in inter-conference games, the NFC and AFC are .500 each.

* The NFC Packers, who we didn't expect to be a playoff team - let alone a team with an 11-2 record, will most likely have a first-round bye in the playoffs.

* We expected the Cowboys to be a good team, but we didn’t expect a 12-1 record with a virtual lock on home field throughout the playoffs. In our pre-season preview issue we said we expected them to make the playoffs and win their division, but we had them at 9-7 mostly due to uncertainty surrounding their coaching change. So, I guess you can say Wade Phillips is one of the surprises of the year too.

* Now, the Patriots – they were not a surprise especially to PossessionPoints.com. We said in our preview issue that they appeared to have it all: offense, defense and coaching continuity. Since our human brains thought it was nearly impossible to go 16-0, we kept making adjustments and runs until the computer produced one loss. On the other hand, the computer expected the Ravens to be better this year, and so we had Baltimore beating the Patriots to give them that 15-1 record for the season.

During the next few weeks, we will expound on some of the other surprises that this season had in store for us all. Many of these surprises we touched upon in our pre-season issue, and while those who are not subscribers didn’t receive this issue, take heart. There is always next season to come on board and get the new preview issue plus all our other information.

A quick little note on last week’s games: PossessionPoints.com went 11-5 straight up for our picks.

PossessionPoints.com NFL Big Games for Week 15

Well, after the disappointing, one-sided game between the Steelers and Patriots last week, you may be thinking “Okay, what kind of big games can torment us this week?” Guess what? There are plenty and most of these contenders are playing for the coveted wildcard spots. In other words, if they lose this week, their postseason play is truly in jeopardy if not a mathematical impossibility.

The first big game we want to talk about is the Bills vs. Browns being played in Cleveland. Besides the uphill battle of foreign turf, the Bills are chasing those very Browns for the wildcard spot. The Browns have more than the wildcard on their minds. Cleveland is only one game behind the Steelers in the AFC North division race. This would have been a very different playoff race picture had the Steelers been able to back up Anthony Smith’s mouth and come with a win against New England. Since that did not happen, Pittsburgh has to keep a close eye on who is right behind them – the Browns.

This brings us to our next big game in the AFC, the Steelers vs. the Jaguars in Pittsburgh. We have been saying for weeks to look out for the Jaguars. This game pits two 9-4 teams against each other, and it also may be a preview of an early-round playoff game. The Jaguars can possibly avoid this playoff matchup as a win could help Cleveland steal the division from the Steelers. The Jags should approach this contest as a playoff game and use it to measure their abilities as an on-the-road team which no doubt will be their lot in the playoffs.

Now, on to the NFC! Their playoff picture is one big mess. While the division titles are pretty much decided, the wildcard race is a muddled quagmire of should-be and could-be teams. Right now, the Giants and Vikings have the upper hand with the Giants needing only one win to lock up a playoff spot. The Giants are playing at home against the Redskins – a division rival with very slim playoff hopes. The Redskins are currently sitting at 6-7, a game behind the Vikings at 7-6. However, the Lions, Cardinals and Saints are also at 6-7. A Giant win would virtually eliminate the Redskins while a Giant loss would keep the Redskin hopes alive without doing great damage to New York as they would still have two more chances to secure the playoff spot.

The Vikings vs. Bears in Minnesota is a big game but only for the Vikings. The Bears at 5-8 are starting yet another new quarterback, and their playoff hopes are as dim as the hopes of the Eagles and Panthers — the other two 5-8 teams. The Vikings have turned their season around, and their last six games were much better than their first five which is why they are in the playoff run. Our full-season statistics do not show Minnesota in a very favorable light. However, when we break it down and analyze their late-season performance vs. their early-season performance, it is obvious that the Vikings have found the bug in their program and fixed it.

The Saints vs. Cardinals in New Orleans is a matchup between two of the 6-7 teams. This is an instance where the losing team will probably stay home for the playoffs while the winner will move to a .500 record and into the thick of the playoff hunt. While Saints’ fans may have their hopes up that the Bucs are only two games in front of them at 8-5, they should not get their hopes up as the Bucs’ remaining games are against the Falcons, 49ers and Panthers – not the most difficult schedule in the league as these teams have a combined record of 11-28. We think the Bucs are pretty safe as the NFC South Champs.

If you are interested in seeing the projections of PossessionPoints.com in regard to these big games, go to our subscriber page and sign up. Special holiday pricing is available. You can also sign up for free information by giving us your name and email address located on the right side of this page. We welcome your feedback and your thoughts here on what you think are big games and why.

PossessionPoints Week 13 NFL Performance Rankings

The top five Performance Rankings for Week 13 according to PossessionPoints.com are the Patriots, Steelers, Cowboys, Colts and Giants. The Jaguars edged out the Packers for the number six spot, and they are just percentage points behind the Giants ready to pounce to take over the number five position.

Performance Rankings are based on in-game statistics that measure a team's offensive performance. These statistics take into account such elements as the scoring drive, the points scored and time of possession. In the included chart, you will see each team, their win-loss record and the PossessionPoints measure of relative performance which is colored green, yellow or red. A green chart indicates a positive and strong team performance. A yellow chart indicates a mediocre to fair performance and a red chart tells the tale of trouble ahead.



These Performance Ratings are unique because they are based on in-game stats that are present in each game every week. Not present in these performance ratings are any opinion and or subjective measure of any type.

At the bottom of the pack this week are the Dolphins, 49ers, Jets, Bills and Rams. The Jets moved out of the cellar and up three places while the Dolphins took their rightful place at the bottom of the league with their 0-12 record. It is interesting to see that as a purely stat-based measure, with no subjective criteria, PossessionPoints successfully sorts out the number one team and the number 32 team. Numerically, this gives even more credence to how the stat sorts out the teams in the middle as well as its role as a tool for projections and predictions.

Now that we have 12 weeks of the season completed, the playoff picture is starting to sort itself out. Our projected division winners are no surprise to anyone: the Cowboys, Packers, Bucs and Seahawks in the NFC, and the Patriots, Colts, Steelers and Chargers in the AFC. The tiebreakers are wear our projected standings get interesting. Currently, we project the Giants will finish with a 11-5 record and take one wildcard slot and the Cardinals will emerge from the pack of 6-6 and 5-7 teams to grab the other wildcard spot. The Cardinals can’t breathe too easily because we see the Vikings as right on their heels, and one slip up by the Cardinals could cost them the playoff spot.

In the AFC, it looks like the Jaguars have a pretty good chance at one wildcard while the other wildcard spot appears to be a tossup between the Browns and Titans which would result in a tiebreaker game if our projections hold true.

NFL Big Games for Week 14

We guess it is no mystery that the contest between the Patriots and Steelers is the most important game of the week – at least for the Steelers. The Patriots have their season wrapped up and are just looking to keep their perfect veneer. On the other hand, the Steelers have yet to lock up their division and hold just a two-game lead over the Browns. A Pittsburgh win would almost secure the division title and keep them close on the heels of the Colts for the second, first-round bye in the playoffs. From a PossessionPoints.com view, this is a battle of two outstanding teams with the number offense in the Patriots matched up against the number defense in the Steelers. If Pittsburgh could avoid those damaging turnovers, they could give New England their third, close encounter with defeat in a row.

The next big game is the Bears vs. Redskins. Redskins will be at home for this matchup of two 5-7 teams that have a great deal on the line. It’s hard to believe that this is considered a big game, but there is a second wildcard in the NFC that is very much up for grabs and in reach of a team with a 5-7 record. From a PossessionPoints view, we kind of like the Redskins in this matchup. If you would like to know the rest of our matchups, see our subscription page at http://www.possessionpoints.com/.

The third big game on our list is the Colts vs. Ravens game in Baltimore. Will the Ravens be recharged from their near victory over the Patriots or will they still be so angry that they screw up this game? Hard to tell. However, this contest is important for the Colts because they hold a two-game lead in their division over the Jaguars but only a one-game lead over the Steelers for the second bye in the first-round of playoffs.

Finally, we have the battle of the Jersey Turnpike: The New York Giants visit the Eagles at the Linc in Philadelphia. The Giants hope to lock up their wildcard spot by moving to 9-4 while the Eagles who are currently 5-7, hope to hold on to playoff hopes and become 6-7. Right now in the NFC there are three teams with 6-6 records: the Vikings, Lions and Cardinals and five teams with 5-7 records: Eagles, Redskins, Bears and Panthers. All are hoping for a miracle and get the one remaining wildcard. The real miracle would be if the Giants fell this week to the Eagles and the next three weeks which would open a wildcard to one of these other nine teams. How mediocre can the NFC possibly be that losing records are still looking for a playoff dream? That is this season in the NFL.

For the record, PossessionPoints favors the Cardinals to emerge from the nine and get the last remaining wildcard spot, but the Vikings are right on their heels by our projections and would scoop it up if the Cardinals should stumble. If they both fail, it’s anyone’s guess who shows up for a playoff game.

Tell us who you think would be the wildcard of the NFC. Once again, if you go to PossessionPoints and sign up, you can see our projected standings by division.

More Thoughts on How the Patriots Can Be Beaten

In August, when we published our Preseason Preview Issue for our PossessionPoints.com subscribers, we predicted the Patriots would go 15-1 with one loss to the Baltimore Ravens. Now, since that time, we have had our doubts that this would occur because the Ravens have not lived up to their potential or their 2006 performance. However, this week proved that if a team like the Ravens does perform, they can beat the Patriots even without help from referees.

The essential ingredients in the formula for victory over New England are: a strong offense who can carry out long, time-consuming drives; a good to excellent running game; a hard-hitting defensive secondary to intimidate and throw the Patriots’ receivers off their routs; and as we mentioned before, a strong wind to curtail the aerial attack of the great and talented Tom Brady; and some ability from the defensive line to put pressure on Brady so he doesn’t have all day to find a receiver.

If you watched the Baltimore – Patriots game this week, you would have seen how big a role the wind played in Brady’s performance. Granted, the Patriots did adapt and New England put together a heck of a running and short passing game with Laurence Maroney as a key player, but you could tell not having Brady’s long passes did affect the confidence of the Patriots’ team.

So, are the Steelers this week capable of pulling out the ultimate victory? They could be as they have a few weapons in their favor, and to be honest, the Patriots have not looked either unshakable or unbeatable in the last two weeks. A few breaks their way was the difference between New England posting a “W” or taking home their first loss.

In Pittsburgh’s corner, we have Willie Parker at Running Back and Troy Polamalu, a hard-hitting strong safety. A problem may arise in that Polamalu has been injured and missed last week’s game against the Bengals. Another problem is that the Steelers have performed erratically this season especially in three of their losses and one of their wins. Their offense seems to be a little out of sync and having a hard time finishing their opponents off. If they are to beat the Patriots’ this week, they will most likely need a zero-turnover game and a top performance by Parker and a few objective refs would help.

PossessionPoints ranks the Steelers defense at number one against New England’s offense which is ranked number one. The Steelers offense comes in at number three and the Patriots’ defense at number 10. This could be an exciting match, but we think the Patriots are homesick for those quiet games where they just tore everyone apart. Those days may be done as the season’s grows closer. Everybody wants to be the team to take down the king and beat the unbeaten. Anyone have a weather report for Foxboro this weekend?

If you haven't read it already, be sure to read our first article on this topic: "The How, When and Where of the Patriots’ First Loss".

PossessionPoints Week 12 NFL Performance Rankings

The top five Performance Rankings for Week 12 according to PossessionPoints.com are the Patriots, Steelers, Colts, Cowboys and Giants. The Packers are still number six despite the fact that they are now 10-1. However, we reiterate the fact that Green Bay has tended to make quick strike scores which lowers their Relative Performance Measure or RPM. The Jaguars are now in 7th place having moved up one spot from last week. Performance Rankings are based on in-game statistics that measure a team's offensive performance. These statistics take into account such elements as the scoring drive, the points scored and time of possession.

In the included chart, you will see each team, their win-loss record and the PossessionPoints measure of relative performance which is colored green, yellow or red. A green chart indicates a positive and strong team performance. A yellow chart indicates a mediocre to fair performance and a red chart tells the tale of trouble ahead.


These Performance Ratings are unique because they are based on in-game stats that are present in each game every week. Not present in these performance ratings are any opinion and or subjective measure of any type.

At the bottom of the pack this week are the same teams as last week: the Bills, 49ers, Dolphins and Jets. The real interest is starting to be with the crowd of teams who have near .500 records. Someone, somewhere has go to break out of this congested pack. NFC 5-6 teams with positive RPM are led by the Eagles who are 8th on our chart and whose performance numbers have been better than their record all season. They are followed by the Saints and Cardinals who also have 5-6 records and are 13th and 14th on our chart. The Lions, who are 6-5 with a negative RPM and are 17th on our list, should be looking over their shoulders at the teams with the positive RPM who are looking for an opportunity to snatch the playoff spot away from them.

Since last week, the Cardinals position has gotten shakier. In Week 11, we had them winning their division, but in Week 12, after losing a game we thought they would win, the Cardinals’ projected record has dropped to 8-8 leaving them out of the playoffs. Also in the NFC, we now see the Saints and Giants as the wildcard teams which figures since they are two of the teams with positive RPMs.

In the AFC, our projected playoff picture remains unchanged. We see the Patriots, Colts, Steelers and Chargers winning their divisions with the Jaguars and Browns as the wildcard teams.

See our chart below with the projected final records of all the NFC and AFC teams.
Again, we welcome comments, questions and feedback.

PossessionPoints.com Goes 12-4 in Picks in Week 12

This week PossessionPoints.com posted another successful week in our picks. Our straight up projections went 12-4 while our picks against the spread went 9-7. We believe our picks could have gone a little better had the games that went into OT had gone our way and if a hurricane hadn’t descended on Pittsburgh to louse up our spread. Oh well, that’s the fun of making projections. PossessionPoints still averages for picks between 70 and 75 percent.

NFL Big Games for Week 13

The First big game of this week is truly the first game of the week: Thursday night’s contest between the Packers and the Cowboys. While neither of these teams appear to be in any peril about winning their division or making the playoffs, this game is significant because the winner will most likely gain home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. PossessionPoints.com agrees with the odds makers who project the Cowboys to be a seven-point favorite.

The next big game, of which there are quite a few this week, is the Seahawks at the Eagles. This game will be in Philly, and PossessionPoints has the Eagles winning but not by a very large margin. The Seahawks have a two-game lead in their division, but a loss here could bring the Cardinals right on to their heels. Meanwhile, the Eagles are sitting on a 5-6 record and need a win here if they hope to revive their playoff hopes for this season. The Eagles have been aided in their playoff quest by the two recent Lions’ losses and find themselves just one game out of the number two wildcard position. We need to mention that this number wildcard spot is quite crowded. At present, there are six teams with a 5-6 record all hoping to catch the Lions who sit at 6-5 or the Giants who are at 7-4.

The one thing we can say about the Seahawks is that the Birds will win four of the remaining five games on their schedule. No, we are not psychic and don’t buy Super Bowl tickets yet, Seattle. We just looked at their schedule and noted that in their final five games, their foes include: the Eagles, Falcons, Cardinals and Ravens. Sorry, we could not resist.

The third big game on our list is the Bucs vs. Saints. The Saints trail Tampa Bay in the NFC South by two games. A New Orleans’ win would raise their record to 6-6 while dropping the Bucs to 7-5. This would put the Saints in the thick of that number two wildcard race as well as in striking distance for the division itself should the Buccaneers fall further. PossessionPoints current projections have the Saints winning this game and getting the second NFC wildcard spot with a record of 9-7. So, to put it bluntly: this game is huge for New Orleans. They blow this one, they are in deep trouble.

The Lions and Vikings game is the next important contest this week because these teams also are 5-6 and vying for that coveted second wildcard spot. Is any team not 5-6? Anyway, let’s face it. Neither the Lions nor the Vikings have a shot catching the 10-1 Packers even if Green Bay does lose this week.

Okay, on to the Browns and Cardinals. This game is big for (must we say it?) the 5-6 Cardinals as well as the 7-4 Browns. Cleveland is just one game behind the Steelers, and a win here against the Cardinals could land them in a tie with Pittsburgh should the Steelers “slip up” on their turf against the Bengals (That was our feeble attempt at humor at the weather conditions on Monday night).

Okay, no one laugh, but we cannot NOT list the Dolphins vs. Jets as one of our big games this week. This could be the Dolphins’ best hope for a victory this year. Isn’t everyone just rooting for them to win just one? What can it hurt? Even if they win, they are still in line for the number one draft pick next season.

Again, we welcome comments, feedback and opinions. Visit our site at PossessionPoints.com.

PossessionPoints.com Welcomes in Holiday Season with Three Terrific Subscription Offers

Happy Holidays to all NFL fans! We want to take the time to thank our subscribers, our blog readers and all those who offer feedback on our site and here. Have a wonderful holiday season and New Year!

If you have wondered how you would enjoy a subscription to PossessionPoints.com, this is the time to find out. We are offering special Holiday pricing so you can see what makes PossessionPoints so unique and accurate.

You can get the remainder of the 2007 season and all of 2008 for only $49.95

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The How, When and Where of the Patriots’ First Loss

What? Are we saying that the Patriots can lose this season? Well, the popular answer is “No”, and quite frankly, we at PossessionPoints.com have had the Patriots going undefeated since our season preview issue. But we wanted to have some fun, and turned the computer loose to try and figure out who could be the miracle team to beat New England.

There are a lot of factors that would go into a victory over the Patriots. First, a winning team would need a ball-controlling offense. This means that the team would have to be able to sustain long drives that result in scores – not field goals, but touchdowns. We considered in this category as potential winners the Steelers and Giants who both have shown promise in ball control and are still on the regular season schedule of the Patriots.

Next criteria, is a strong defense capable of stopping the Patriots’ offense - at least once or twice during the game. Okay, this trait has been hard to find if non-existent this season, but there are teams on their schedule who have exhibited a sound defense such as the Giants and Steelers. However, for the Giants, the loss of Mathias Kiwanuka , puts New York’s defense on thinner ice.
This may sound silly, but the third major factor in a win over the Patriots is the weather. Playing in New England on a windy, cold, blustery day could inhibit the high-powered passing offense of Tom Brady and the Patriots. Even a small dent in that offense could change the outcome of the game.

So, given all these factors and the remaining schedule of the Patriots, who did PossessionPoints.com come up with as the leading contender to beat New England? (Drum Roll Please) The Jacksonville Jaguars in an AFC Championship Game!

"What?" you say. "You didn’t even mention them in the previous paragraphs!" Well, we have solid reasons why the Patriots need to look out for the Jaguars. First, Jacksonville has earned two PossessionPoints green sweeps in a row against the Titans and Chargers plus two others in the first half of the season against the Falcons and Chiefs. What these green sweeps say is that Jacksonville understands the importance of executing long offensive drives that end in scores.
For example, the Jaguars in Week 3 opened up their game against the Broncos with an 11:45 touchdown drive. This is exactly what a team would need to do to beat the Patriots. Drives like this keep Tom Brady and the New England offense off the field and idle. On the other side of the ball, the Jaguars have earned five green defensive performances this season. To be fair, they have had three red performances as well, but overall their defense does have the capability to stop strong offenses.

Consider this fantasy scenario: It is a frozen, windy day in New England and the Jaguars win the opening toss. Jacksonville goes into their long- ball possession mode and opens the game with a touchdown after almost a 12-minute possession. Meanwhile powerless to take any action, Brady and company are on the sidelines watching almost 12 minutes of the game tick away. When the Patriots’ offense does finally get on the field, they feel a bit anxious and out of rhythm for the first time this season. In this scenario, a strong wind could also take Brady’s deep pass away from him which also diminishes his game control capabilities. While Brady is nearly perfect under pressure when he is in control of the game, a scenario like this could affect New England’s precision play and ultimate victory.

Is this a probable event? Nah. But the point is that broadcasters, fans and even NFL teams are so enamored by the Patriots this season, they are failing to take notice of teams that have the talent to derail that perfect season. Every week, we utter the words, “Wow, that was surely an upset.” Those words might well be uttered this year still about New England.

For this nightmare scenario for New England to come true, the Jaguars still have plenty of work ahead of them. First, they have to beat the Colts in their remaining game with them this season and steal the division from them. This is not an easy task. If accomplished, this would earn them a bye in the first round of the playoffs. Then, they need a victory in their first playoff game to meet the Patriots in Foxboro since New England will definitely have a home field advantage. Okay, while we admit this is a farfetched idea, the NFL is filled with science fiction scenarios that have come true. We shared our Patriots’ defeat fantasy scenario with you; we invite you to tell us who you think has the potential to upset New England. Below for your reference is the Jaguars team page from our Members’ area at PossessionPoints.com.

See our most recent article on the topic "More Thoughts on How the Patriots Can Be Beaten".

Week 11 Performance Rankings

The top five Performance Rankings for Week 11 according to PossessionPoints.com are the Patriots, Steelers, Colts, Giants and Cowboys. The Packers are number six the same as they were last week. In this week’s game, Green Bay continued their winning ways, but returned to their habit of quick strike scores which served to lower their Relative Performance Measure or RPM. Performance Rankings are based on in-game statistics that measure a team's offensive performance. These statistics take into account such elements as the scoring drive, the points scored and time of possession.

In the included chart, you will see each team, their win-loss record and the PossessionPoints measure of relative performance which is colored green, yellow or red. A green chart indicates a positive and strong team performance. A yellow chart indicates a mediocre to fair performance and a red chart tells the tale of trouble ahead.


These Performance Ratings are unique because they are based on in-game stats that are present in each game every week. Not present in these performance ratings are any opinion and or subjective measure of any type.

This week, The Bills fell from 20th to 29th courtesy of the pummeling they took from the Patriots. Even though the Jets upset the Steelers, they remained dead last in RPM. The Dolphins took one step down in ranking from 30th to 31st.

If we look at Projected Standings according to PossessionPoints.com, we see that the Cardinals are now projecting to an 11-5 record up one from their projected record last week because of their win over the Bengals. This new projection would give the Cardinals the NFC West division title with the Seahawks getting a wildcard spot. The Titans’ projected finish fell from 12-4 last week to 10-6 this week because of their loss to the Broncos on Monday night.

See our chart below with the projected final records of all the NFC and AFC teams.

NFL Big Game for Week 12

This week, at PossessionPoints.com,, we have only one game to highlight. Thanksgiving’s game between the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers is the contest that holds the most significance for the playoff picture. Does anyone ever remember a Thanksgiving game in Detroit that held so much meaning? The Lions made this game even more significant with their loss to the New York Giants last week. As it stands now, we project the Lions will lose this game against the Packers and finish the season with a 9-7 record which might very well leave them out of the playoffs.

If by chance, the Lions do win, it will raise their season record projection to 10-6 and put them right in the mix for a playoff spot. A win will still leave them well short of the Packers who we project to finish with a 14-2 record unless they lose this game, and in that case, they will finish with a 13-3 record. If you are a Lion fan, Packer fan or just interested in the whole playoff picture, we welcome your take on the Lions' possibilities. Send us a comment and tell us what you think.

PossessionPoints Week 10 NFL Performance Rankings

The top five Performance Rankings for Week 10 according to PossessionPoints.com are the Patriots, Steelers, Colts, Giants and Cowboys. The Packers come in at number six moving up significantly from the number 11 spot last week. In week 10, Green Bay’s performance lived up to their 8-1 record. Performance Rankings are based on in-game statistics that measure a team's offensive performance. These statistics take into account such elements as the scoring drive, the points scored and time of possession.

In the included chart, you will see each team, their win-loss record and the PossessionPoints measure of relative performance which is colored green, yellow or red. A green chart indicates a positive and strong team performance. A yellow chart indicates a mediocre to fair performance and a red chart tells the tale of trouble ahead.

These Performance Ratings are unique because they are based on in-game stats that are present in each game every week. Not present in these performance ratings are any opinion and or subjective measure of any type.

This week, The Titans fell down to number seven after their poor performance against the Jaguars. The Giants still managed to maintain a top-five spot in spite of their tough loss to the Cowboys.

Another team to view is the San Francisco 49ers who have sunk all the way down to the 31 slot after starting this season off with two wins. PossessionPoints did note at that time that San Francisco was the weakest of all the 2-0 teams, and they ranked 18th in spite of their unbeaten record. This is just further evidence that we measure performance that is essential to winning football games.

Last week’s games shook up some of our projected standings. For instance, with their win over the 49ers and their improved Relative Performance Measure (RPM), the Seahawks have gone from a projected 7-9 record to a projected 10-6 record. The Jaguars are another team who also improved their projected performance with their win over the Titans. Jacksonville moved up from a projected 7-9 record to a projected 11-5 record, and their rank jumped from 14th to 9th on our chart. Their RPM also climbed 12 points which is an impressive number for this time of year when already nine games have been played.

See our chart below with the projected final records of all the NFC and AFC teams.

NFL Big Games For Week 11

Last week, PossessionPoints.com highlighted NFC games that were not only of importance to those teams playing but to other teams waiting in the wings. One of the games, the Cowboys vs. Giants, solidified the Cowboys top spot in the NFC East after their defeat over the Giants. Another contest that we highlighted was the game between the Vikings and Packers, and we emphasized how this outcome would affect the fate of the Lions as well. With the Packers’ victory and the Lions’ loss in their own game against the Cardinals, Detroit finds itself in a precarious situation when it comes to winning their division. That said, let’s look ahead to this week’s big games and what teams may find themselves on the hot seat.

We start with a game between two teams whose losses last week in big games has put them in a situation where a wild card playoff berth may be their only hope for postseason play. The game between the Giants and Lions this week could seriously hurt if not end one of these team’s playoff chances. The Giants must rebound from their physical and emotional loss to the Cowboys on their own home turf while the Lions have to overcome their crushing defeat at the hands of the Arizona Cardinals. Both of these teams have 6-3 records and should have been able to take the “W” last week. Alas, neither team was up to the task. A Giants’ win would give NY a 7-3 record and keep them on track for a projected 12-4 finish by the PossessionPoints stat. A Lions’ victory would obviously harm the Giants’ chances of being in the playoffs and would also improve Detroit’s projected PossessionPoints record to at least 10-6 which would put them squarely in the playoff hunt. In fact, the most likely scenario that would result in both of these teams getting a wild card spot would be a Lions’ victory. A Lions’ win would boost their projected record to at least 10-6 and lower the Giants’ projected record to 11-5. Given the Giants’ remaining schedule, they would still be in a good position to earn a wild card spot despite this loss to the Lions. Now, we are not advocating a loss for the Giants; we are just saying for both teams to have their best playoff hopes, the Lions need to win especially since Detroit has a tougher remaining schedule based upon PossessionPoints Relative Performance Measure.

Another worthy of a mention is the AFC matchup between the Jaguars and the Chargers. Coming off of an impressive win over the Colts, the Chargers have a one-game lead in the AFC west and a 5-4 record. The Jaguars are primed and ready to pounce on the Colts who have only a one-game lead over the 6-3 Jacksonville team. A win by the Jaguars would keep them in the AFC South race and position them relatively well for a wild card at least. A win for the Chargers would keep them in the lead in their division and allow them to have high hopes for the playoffs.

We also have to make sure that we mention the heavy weight battle between the Rams and the 49ers. (Yes, we are being facetious). On the bright side, the loser of this contest enters another race: the race with the Dolphins and Jets on who gets the top draft pick! There is a lesson in this game and that is every cloud and losing season has its silver lining. If anyone cares, PossessionPoints matchups have us picking the Rams.

PossessionPoints Week 9 NFL Performance Rankings

The top five Performance Rankings according to PossessionPoints.com are the Patriots, Steelers, Colts, Titans and Giants. These Performance Rankings are based on in-game statistics that measure the team’s offensive performance. These statistics take into account such elements as the scoring drive, the points scored and time of possession.

In the included chart, you will see each team, their win-loss record and the PossessionPoints measure of relative performance which is colored green, yellow or red. A green chart indicates a positive and strong team performance. A yellow chart indicates a mediocre to fair performance and a red chart tells the tale of trouble ahead.



These Performance Ratings are unique because they are based on in-game stats that are present in each game every week. Not present in these performance ratings are any opinion and or subjective measure of any type.

In this week’s rankings, the Giants and Titans flipped places. The Giants who play the Cowboys this week are just about one-tenth of a point ahead of the Cowboys in the PossessionPoints performance rankings. You may want to see our blog below for Big Games of Week 10.

Despite their stellar 7-1 record and positive relative performance measure, the Green Bay Packers still haven’t climbed into our top 10 of Performance Rankings. They come in 11th behind the Texans. Why? The Packers need to improve their offense and net performance to move up the PossessionPoints chart. Beware Packers fans, this data is signaling that the Packers’ performance is not as dominant as their record may indicate. However, don’t despair because the Packers’ schedule from here on out is not a difficult one. PossessionPoints still projects that the Packers will finish with a 12-4 record and become division champs with the third best record in the NFC.




As for the rest of the league, we do not see any losses for the Colts or the Patriots for the remainder of the season. Surprise! Surprise! We do see one more loss for the Steelers and Titans, and this solidifies these four teams as the elite of the AFC. It is interesting to note that these four teams are the last ones in the NFL to have a green RPM of over 40 according to the PossessionPoints stat.

We remind you that so far in 2007, when a team has had a green RPM in a game (PossessionPoints net effect), it has won 95 % of the time. To learn about the PossessionPoints net effect and the PossessionPoints offense and defense stat, go to PossessionPoints.com.

NFL Big Games For Week 10

Last week, PossessionPoints.com highlighted a couple of NFC matchups whose outcomes were of dire importance for those teams. We told you how the Bucs and Eagles needed to win games if they wanted to stay in the playoff hunt, and that PossessionPoints had them forecast to lose.. Well, the Bucs won – although it was not a pretty game, but the Eagles did not. Now, it would take almost a miracle finish for the Eagles to make the playoffs. Sure they should win a few more games, but the words “Eagles” and “playoffs” won't go together in 2007.

On to this week’s big games. There are three games we need to highlight this week. Two NFC contests and one AFC. In the AFC, our big game is the one between the Steelers and Browns. Who would have thought we would have been deeming a Browns’ game as an important game nine weeks ago? However, the Browns have showed tremendous Offense even though they have been weak on defense. Despite this weakness, they have a 5-3 record and a win against the Steelers would produce a tie atop the AFC North with both teams having a 6-3 record. PossessionPoints is forecasting a Steelers’ victory mostly because of the Browns’ weakness on defense. If the Browns do pull off a victory, this could set them up as a legitimate playoff contender in the AFC. Unlike the Eagles last week, they are not necessarily out of it with a loss, but if they play to form, PossessionPoints projects they would end the season with a record of 9-7. There could be several 9-7 teams vying for a playoff spot. A win against the Steelers would push the projection to at least 10-6, and the fans in Cleveland can start thinking the unthinkable: playoffs.

In the NFC, the big games are the Vikings - Packers and the Giants - Cowboys.We probably didn't have to tell you that the Giants - Cowboys was a big game. The winner here can be thinking about winning the NFC East and perhaps home field throughout the playoffs, especially if the winner is the Cowboys. The surprise here is the PossessionPoints forecast is pointing to a Giants’ win. In this contest, if the Cowboys lose, they are still very well positioned for the playoffs in the NFC so it is not be a do or die situation. A Giant victory, as with the AFC matchup we highlighted, would bring the Giants into a tie with the Cowboys at 7-2 as that game would be a split of the season series. However, the remaining games on the schedule favor the Cowboys as the Giants still have the Patriots looming in their second half. So, a Giant victory doesn't guarantee them the NFC East, but a loss will make winning the division much more difficult.

The Vikings - Packers matchup is the final big game we want to highlight. You thought we were kidding before when we said this game, didn't you? Well we weren't. How is a matchup between a 3-5 team and a 7-1 team a big game? Well, it is big for the Vikings, and believe it or not, it is big for the Lions. Confused? Let us explain. The Vikings have been playing much better in recent games than they were earlier in the season. Adrian Peterson is setting records left and right. Because of their recent strength we were actually surprised when the PossessionPoints matchup algorithm actually pointed to the Vikings to win. Should that happen it still only puts the Vikings on track for a mediocre 8-8 season. However, there is an outside shot that would be good enough for the playoffs. But a Viking victory here would also bring the Packers back closer to the Lions. The Packers would fall to 7-2 (still a great record and they are a shoe in for the Playoffs) while the Lions would rise to 7-2 themselves if they could post a “W” over the Cardinals. That game would be our next pick for important contests to watch. If the Lions do win, the playoff picture becomes crowded for the NFC and primed for a dark horse team to come charging through. The NFL is too exciting for words!

It should be an interesting week in the NFL. Let us at PossessionPoints.com know what you think in a comment below and visit PossessionPoints.com to learn more about the PossessionPoints stat and how we use it to forecast.
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NFL Big Games for Week 9

I bet you thought we at PossessionPoints.com were going to talk about the Colts - Patriots game. Well. we're not – well, not really. Sure, we must acknowledge that this game is being played, and its outcome could determine home field advantage for the playoffs for the AFC, but you all know that already. You also know that the winner of that game could be well positioned to go 16-0 for the season, and that every broadcaster in the world will be pre-dubbing that winning team as the “As Close to Perfect as You Can Get NFL Team”. So, since there will be so much press on that game’s outcome, we aren't going to say anything more about it. Instead, we are going to highlight 2 NFC games that could have playoff implications: The Eagles - Cowboys and the Cardinals - Bucs games.

Both the Eagles and the Cardinals are 3-4, but the Eagles rank a surprising 7th on our RPM list for this week while the Cardinals are down at 14th. The surprising thing is that if both teams continue this level of performance, the Cardinals will go 12-4 and easily win their division while the Eagles will struggle to an 8-8 record and miss the playoffs. (See Chart)




How can this be? Schedules. For the remainder of the Cardinals’ season, the best team they play is currently ranked 17th -- the Lions who have a -7.9 RPM. The worst team the Cardinals play is the 32nd-ranked Rams who have an RPM of -59.4. The Eagles are not as fortunate with their schedule. They still have the #1 Patriots who have an RPM of 117.9, the #4 Giants with an RPM of 39 and the #6 Cowboys who the Eagles have to play twice and who have a current RPM of 35.6.

That is why this game is so big for the Eagles. This is a game they are picked and projected to lose. In order to make the playoffs they must reverse their fortunes in one of the games they are picked to lose. This game in Philadelphia looks to be their best shot. This game is huge for the Eagles.

But what about the Cardinals, they are expected to cruise to a playoff spot if they continue to play like they are - right? Well, don’t expect an easy victory as this game is big for their opponent- the Bucs. The Bucs are in a situation closer to the Eagles. The projected record for the Bucs is 8-8. A win here could put them in the 9-7 pack at the end of the year and keep their playoff hopes alive.

For more information on this season's projections and team records according to the PossessionPoints stat, go to PossessionPoints.com.

PossessionPoints.com Picks 12 out of 13 in Week 8

PossessionPoints.com was 12-1 in its picks of week 8. PossessionPoints.com uses only the PossessionPoints stat to come up with its picks. The stat gives the most accurate view of a team's true performance. We do not use any subjective or emotional criteria in making our picks or our Performance Rankings. If you are interested in statistical picks that have a basis in fact, go to www.possessionpoints.com

PossessionPoints.com Week 8 NFL Performance Rankings

The top five Performance Rankings for Week 8 according to PossessionPoints.com are the Patriots, Steelers, Colts, Giants and Titans. These Performance Rankings are based on in-game statistics that measure a team's offensive performance. These statistics take into account such elements as the scoring drive, the points scored and time of possession.

In the included chart, you will see each team, their win-loss record and the PossessionPoints measure of relative performance which is colored green, yellow or red. A green chart indicates a positive and strong team performance. A yellow chart indicates a mediocre to fair performance and a red chart tells the tale of trouble ahead.

These Performance Ratings are unique because they are based on in-game stats that are present in each game every week. Not present in these performance ratings are any opinion and or subjective measure of any type.

This week, The New York Giants have pulled into fourth place ahead of the Titans and behind the Colts. Their trip to London had little effect on their winning streak. This is the Giants’ sixth straight win which at this time puts them at the top as far as Relative Performance Measure (RPM) in the NFC.

Another team to watch is the New Orleans Saints who continue to improve. After languishing in the bottom five of the Performance Rankings for the first four games, they have managed to move up to the 18th spot – five spots better than last week. Their RPM improved from a -25 last week to a -10 this week. They could make a similar improvement this week with another win. Another win would make the Saints 4-4, and could vault their RPM from -10 to a +5. Believe it or not, a move like that could revive playoff talks in New Orleans. We are not ready to go there yet with the Saints. Our current projections based on their RPM and remaining schedule forecast New Orleans to have a record of 8-8 and just miss the playoffs.

See our chart below with the projected final records of all the NFC and AFC teams.

To my fellow Females out there: Do You Want to Make Football Your Friend?

My fellow Females, I need help! I am trying to gauge the interest that women have in the NFL for my company, PossessionPoints.com. I have read that 40 percent of NFL fans are women. I would like to reach these women. I want to know what interests women about the NFL. For me, it's the excitement of the game and the excuse to yell and scream at the top of my lungs for no apparent reason. You see, if you do the screaming during a game, no one cares or looks at you as if you grew two heads and are ready for hormone replacement therapy. Excuse me, I have digressed.

Anyway, what about the NFL turns you on? Is it the strategy of the game? Is it the feeling of comraderie you feel towards fans who like the same teams you do? Is it the cool women's jerseys and hats you can buy now? Or is it just the way those young guys look in the uniforms? All kidding aside, I am a lonely female football company CEO. Come on, women! Lend me a female hand.

PossessionPoints Are Stats that Tell the Whole Story of an NFL Game

If you play a football pool every week or participate in a fantasy football league, you are always looking for that one piece of information that gives you the edge over all your competitors. If you’re a fan that watches the NFL consistently, you know that broadcasters have limited information to offer viewers besides the traditional stats that most fans don’t care about because they are unaware of their relative importance. PossessionPoints revolutionizes NFL stats for fans, fantasy football players, pool participants, broadcasters and believe it or not – NFL coaches.

The first and most important premise of PossessionPoints is that “Not all points scored are created equally.” Points scored from long drives later in the game are more valuable than points scored early in the game or on quick-strike drives. Why? The points on the long drive do more than drive up a score. They give a defense rest and confidence while causing frustration and a sense of desperation in an opponent.

The second premise of PossessionPoints is that points scored by a defense or special teams DO NOT COUNT. That’s right-they don’t count. Now, we wouldn’t tell that to a Devon Hester. He might get mad. Look, we are not saying these players are not essential to the game. We are saying that in the world of PossessionPoints, defense and special teams’ scores do little psychological damage on an opponent’s offense. The offense returns to the field ready to take on the challenge with stronger resolve.

Those unfamiliar with PossessionPoints may not understand why the stat encompasses the psychological aspect of the game, but this is why PossessionPoints is so valuable. It mathematically and scientifically takes into account the momentum of a game. This is an added edge that no other stat or data delivers.

With these premises stated, let’s look at the nuts and bolts of PossessionPoints. PossessionPoints takes into account and measure a team’s offense, defense and net effect using criteria such as the number of points scored, the length of a drive and in what quarter the points were scored. The net, which is the most telling aspect of the outcome of a game, is the number of offensive PossessionPoints scored minus the number of offensive PossessionPoints scored by the other team or in other words, the number of PossessionPoints allowed by the defense. As a game progresses, the number of offensive, defensive and net effect PossessionPoints is posted on their own graphic indicator. An exceptional performance turns the graphic indicators green; a so-so performance colors the indicators yellow and a poor performance turns the indicators an alarming red. During a game, teams can post all the same color for all indicators or a combination of red, green and yellow. A full green sweep is a truly positive performance and full red graph means, well - that a team will be watching a lot of films that week.

As far as accuracy, when a team turns its offensive indicators green, it has over a 75 percent chance of winning a game. A team that earns a green net effect has a 95 percent or better chance of posting a victory.
For a broadcaster and those who watch games on TV, a PossessionPoints graphic indicator is an easy way to see the true story of what is taking place on the field. For a coach, keeping track of PossessionPoints can be a welcome tool in measuring an opponent’s stamina and ability to stop crucial plays on fourth down or in other tricky game situations.

As the season of football progresses, the week-by-week tally of PossessionPoints gains insight into the future performance of a team. PossessionPoints can weed through the false data and determine which offenses and defenses measure up. This is easy to see because the seasonal data can also be recorded on the red, yellow and green indicators. For those who make picks on games, having the knowledge at hand of how teams have actually performed can influence the decision on what teams are the best to pick. PossessionPoints’ offers matchups to members of their site, and the picks sometimes differ greatly from the picks that rely on traditional stats. For those who live in the world of Fantasy Football, knowing which teams truly have the strongest offense and defense makes selecting players a whole lot easier as well.
PossessionPoints helps in so many facets of NFL play. The bottom line is that PossessionPoints are stats that tell the actual story of how a team performs. They are not just a compilation of numbers that make no sense. PossessionPoints offers the most valuable information no matter what the football activity.

PossessionPoints.com Week 7 NFL Performance Rankings

The top five Performance Rankings according to PossessionPoints.com are the Patriots, Steelers, Colts, Titans and Giants. These Performance Rankings are based on in-game statistics that measure the team's offensive performance. These statistics take into account such elements as the scoring drive, the points scored and time of possession.

In the included chart, you will see each team, their win-loss record and the PossessionPoints measure of relative performance which is colored green, yellow or red. A green chart indicates a positive and strong team performance. A yellow chart indicates a mediocre to fair performance and a red chart tells the tale of trouble ahead.



These Performance Ratings are unique because they are based on in-game stats that are present in each game every week. Not present in these performance ratings are any opinion and or subjective measure of any type.

This week you may notice the Giants are in the top five. With their fifth straight win, they have now passed the Cowboys who are right behind them in sixth place on our Relative Performance Measure (RPM).

The Giants started out near the bottom of the list but have doggedly moved up each week. Also, notice that although they have been bottom feeding for the four weeks of the season, The Saints are also making a move to climb the chart. While they are still in the 23rd spot, their PossessionPoints stats have improved each week. In fact, they posted a green offensive indicator for the first time this season in this past week's game against the beleaguered and hapless Falcons.

The Relative Performance Measure stands on its own, but it may not mean that teams will end the season in this order. PossessionPoints.com uses our RPM to project teams' records depending on their remaining schedule. Take a look at the charts. One thing to note: while the Packers are at 12th on our RPM, the PossessionPoints forecast has them finishing the season at 13-3 which would be second best in the NFC.




Another team to pay attention to is the San Diego Chargers. The Chargers have climbed all the way back to number nine on PossessionPoints RPM list. So, PossessionPoints has their projected record at 10-6. Obviously, not everything is a sure thing in the world of the NFL. All teams will make a concerted effort to step up their game and ascend the Performance Charts. Even the Patriots who are being lauded as near-perfect, will try to seal up any gaps and weaknesses they have in their game play. However, to paraphrase Charles Dickens and Scrooge (bear with us on this culture aside): should these shadows go unchanged by future events, this is what will be.

How I got to be CEO of an NFL Stat Company

It all started in December of 2006, when my husband, Ed, and I sat and watched the Eagles punt away a ball at the 4th and 15 in an NFL playoff game. After listening to my screams of disbelief and the audible shouts and sobs of dismay that emanated from my neighbors’ homes, my husband felt compelled to put his engineering mind to work and develop a stat that could assist coaches in implementing strategy in critical game situations. Thus, PossessionPoints.com was born.

When Ed first told me about the stat, I was doubtful. How could numbers play such an important role in the game of football? As I watched him use the stat during the playoffs, I realized that he had invented the “Real McCoy”. I put on my PR hat and went to work. First stop, the lawyers for getting a Service Mark, starting the patent process and making us a corporation. After all that was completed, I was ready to promote.

At first, broadcasters and football people didn’t want to hear from us, but as the stat proved itself at the beginning of this season, we started to get recognition. Since the start of the pre-season, Ed has been interviewed by several sports radio personalities around the country. Print articles about the new stat have also been published.

PossessionPoints is no fluke. Using factors such as time of possession, the length of a scoring drive and the points scored, the stat tells an accurate picture of an NFL team’s true performance on the offense and defense side of the ball. What does this mean? Well, when used for in-game analysis, PossessionPoints can tell you with an accuracy of 96% who will be the winner of that game long before the clock runs out – sometimes as early as the first quarter. This gives coaches a chance to change strategy and broadcasters time to figure out other things to talk about.

For many of us, our football activity does not allow us the privilege of waiting until game time to pick a winner, but that’s okay, because PossessionPoints can accommodate your need to know as soon as possible too. For example, in week 5 of this season, I picked 12 out of 14 winners using only the stat, and we even gauge our Performance Rankings on it as well.
Our website has lots of freebies for visitors, but our members receive the real nuts and bolts info. They not only get a weekly e-newsletter but they receive our match up pages for future games plus other trends and stats that may be of interest.

I have always loved football, so I was never a football widow. However, if you would have told me a year ago, that I would be running a company like this, I would have laughed out loud. Oh well, life is funny, and if my life is meant to be wrapped around the NFL, then so be it.