Why Teams Should Fear the Jaguars

Back in November, we wrote a blog about how a team could beat the Patriots. Our scenario called for the Jaguars to beat the Colts and meet the Patriots in an AFC Championship game after getting a playoff bye. Alas, the victory over the Colts did not occur and the Colts own the playoff bye that we thought was essential for the Jaguars. Other than that game against the Colts, the Jaguars have performed perfectly winning six of their final seven games.

In those six victories, the Jaguars have earned five PossessionPoints Green Sweeps (See chart below). A Green Sweep represents both an effective offense and defense. For the season, the Jaguars have posted seven Green Sweeps which is more than any other team in the NFL. The Perfect-as-of-now Patriots have only posted three, and the Colts have done a little better posting four Green Sweeps.

Why are the Jaguars so effective? Jacksonville’s offense has repeatedly been able to put together successful, clock-eating long drives that have led to touchdowns or field goals. These possessions have not only put points on the scoreboard but allowed the defense to rest and be productive as well. PossessionPoints first noticed the Jaguars penchant for long-possession drives back in Week Three in their game against the Broncos. Since that time, they have become more proficient and consistent at this offense.

At PossessionPoints, we use color-coded indicators which have a direct relationship to a team’s ability to win. For example: A win in the offense column will equate to a team winning 75 percent of the time. A green in the defense column equates to a win 80 percent of the time, and a green net (difference between offensive and defensive PossessionPoints) is a win more than 90 percent of the time. With this explanation, you can see the significance of the Green Sweep and more importantly, the significance of the Jaguars’ Green Sweeps.



We hear commentators on the major sports networks now saying how nobody wants to face the Jaguars in the playoffs. This is an old tune to us as we have been saying this since early November. If teams in the playoffs are not successful in completing big plays against Jacksonville, they will find themselves going home.

The biggest weakness the Jaguars have demonstrated is their inability to stop big plays. One of the most notable examples of this was in the Steelers’ game where the Jags won but by only one touchdown despite being tied in the fourth quarter. Another “weaker” performance for the Jaguars was against the Colts in a game that would have propelled Jacksonville into first place in the division. The Jaguars earned more than twice the PossessionPoints of the Colts (224-102) but lost 28-25 due to the big play, quick-strike force of Peyton Manning which took the Jaguars defense off guard.

As always, we welcome your feedback and opinions. Enjoy the last week of the NFL regular season, and if you would like to know more about PossessionPoints, visit our website at http://www.possesssionpoints.com/ or fill in your email address on the right side of this page for free information. Just so you know, PossessionPoints.com will always respect your privacy and does not sell any email addresses.