There are a lot of factors that would go into a victory over the Patriots. First, a winning team would need a ball-controlling offense. This means that the team would have to be able to sustain long drives that result in scores – not field goals, but touchdowns. We considered in this category as potential winners the Steelers and Giants who both have shown promise in ball control and are still on the regular season schedule of the Patriots.
Next criteria, is a strong defense capable of stopping the Patriots’ offense - at least once or twice during the game. Okay, this trait has been hard to find if non-existent this season, but there are teams on their schedule who have exhibited a sound defense such as the Giants and Steelers. However, for the Giants, the loss of Mathias Kiwanuka , puts New York’s defense on thinner ice.
This may sound silly, but the third major factor in a win over the Patriots is the weather. Playing in New England on a windy, cold, blustery day could inhibit the high-powered passing offense of Tom Brady and the Patriots. Even a small dent in that offense could change the outcome of the game.
So, given all these factors and the remaining schedule of the Patriots, who did PossessionPoints.com come up with as the leading contender to beat New England? (Drum Roll Please) The Jacksonville Jaguars in an AFC Championship Game!
"What?" you say. "You didn’t even mention them in the previous paragraphs!" Well, we have solid reasons why the Patriots need to look out for the Jaguars. First, Jacksonville has earned two PossessionPoints green sweeps in a row against the Titans and Chargers plus two others in the first half of the season against the Falcons and Chiefs. What these green sweeps say is that Jacksonville understands the importance of executing long offensive drives that end in scores.
For example, the Jaguars in Week 3 opened up their game against the Broncos with an 11:45 touchdown drive. This is exactly what a team would need to do to beat the Patriots. Drives like this keep Tom Brady and the New England offense off the field and idle. On the other side of the ball, the Jaguars have earned five green defensive performances this season. To be fair, they have had three red performances as well, but overall their defense does have the capability to stop strong offenses.
Consider this fantasy scenario: It is a frozen, windy day in New England and the Jaguars win the opening toss. Jacksonville goes into their long- ball possession mode and opens the game with a touchdown after almost a 12-minute possession. Meanwhile powerless to take any action, Brady and company are on the sidelines watching almost 12 minutes of the game tick away. When the Patriots’ offense does finally get on the field, they feel a bit anxious and out of rhythm for the first time this season. In this scenario, a strong wind could also take Brady’s deep pass away from him which also diminishes his game control capabilities. While Brady is nearly perfect under pressure when he is in control of the game, a scenario like this could affect New England’s precision play and ultimate victory.
Is this a probable event? Nah. But the point is that broadcasters, fans and even NFL teams are so enamored by the Patriots this season, they are failing to take notice of teams that have the talent to derail that perfect season. Every week, we utter the words, “Wow, that was surely an upset.” Those words might well be uttered this year still about New England.
For this nightmare scenario for New England to come true, the Jaguars still have plenty of work ahead of them. First, they have to beat the Colts in their remaining game with them this season and steal the division from them. This is not an easy task. If accomplished, this would earn them a bye in the first round of the playoffs. Then, they need a victory in their first playoff game to meet the Patriots in Foxboro since New England will definitely have a home field advantage. Okay, while we admit this is a farfetched idea, the NFL is filled with science fiction scenarios that have come true. We shared our Patriots’ defeat fantasy scenario with you; we invite you to tell us who you think has the potential to upset New England. Below for your reference is the Jaguars team page from our Members’ area at PossessionPoints.com.
See our most recent article on the topic "More Thoughts on How the Patriots Can Be Beaten".
4 comments:
I believe the Giants will do it on the last game of the year. They may well be playing for a playoff spot while the only thing the Patriots will be playing for is to stay unbeaten. I think they would rather win the Super Bowl than be unbeaten. They slack off in the last game - Giants win.
I wouldn't mind the Giants winning but I have my doubts. The Giants have been high in our performance rankings all year (see our performance ranking blogs) but their performances have been so inconsistent and when we look at their results against our trendlines, the Giants have been all over particularly offensively. I do agree with you that the Patriots would rather just win the Super Bowl, but as they get closer and closer to breaking the perfect season record, I think that ideal is more in their minds than they are letting on. I would truly love an exciting finish to this season- and if the Giants can do it, so be it!
I also think the Giants will win if belichick decides to bench Brady, Moss, Seymour etc. But then, the pats have been running up the score all year(Exception Colts game), why stop then?
While we think it is possible that Bilichick might bench his stars to save them for the playoffs, which is probably the smart move- we are doubtful. We have also seen Billichick's ego this year, and we think he probably really wants that undefeated season.
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