Last week, PossessionPoints.com highlighted a couple of NFC matchups whose outcomes were of dire importance for those teams. We told you how the Bucs and Eagles needed to win games if they wanted to stay in the playoff hunt, and that PossessionPoints had them forecast to lose.. Well, the Bucs won – although it was not a pretty game, but the Eagles did not. Now, it would take almost a miracle finish for the Eagles to make the playoffs. Sure they should win a few more games, but the words “Eagles” and “playoffs” won't go together in 2007.
On to this week’s big games. There are three games we need to highlight this week. Two NFC contests and one AFC. In the AFC, our big game is the one between the Steelers and Browns. Who would have thought we would have been deeming a Browns’ game as an important game nine weeks ago? However, the Browns have showed tremendous Offense even though they have been weak on defense. Despite this weakness, they have a 5-3 record and a win against the Steelers would produce a tie atop the AFC North with both teams having a 6-3 record. PossessionPoints is forecasting a Steelers’ victory mostly because of the Browns’ weakness on defense. If the Browns do pull off a victory, this could set them up as a legitimate playoff contender in the AFC. Unlike the Eagles last week, they are not necessarily out of it with a loss, but if they play to form, PossessionPoints projects they would end the season with a record of 9-7. There could be several 9-7 teams vying for a playoff spot. A win against the Steelers would push the projection to at least 10-6, and the fans in Cleveland can start thinking the unthinkable: playoffs.
In the NFC, the big games are the Vikings - Packers and the Giants - Cowboys.We probably didn't have to tell you that the Giants - Cowboys was a big game. The winner here can be thinking about winning the NFC East and perhaps home field throughout the playoffs, especially if the winner is the Cowboys. The surprise here is the PossessionPoints forecast is pointing to a Giants’ win. In this contest, if the Cowboys lose, they are still very well positioned for the playoffs in the NFC so it is not be a do or die situation. A Giant victory, as with the AFC matchup we highlighted, would bring the Giants into a tie with the Cowboys at 7-2 as that game would be a split of the season series. However, the remaining games on the schedule favor the Cowboys as the Giants still have the Patriots looming in their second half. So, a Giant victory doesn't guarantee them the NFC East, but a loss will make winning the division much more difficult.
The Vikings - Packers matchup is the final big game we want to highlight. You thought we were kidding before when we said this game, didn't you? Well we weren't. How is a matchup between a 3-5 team and a 7-1 team a big game? Well, it is big for the Vikings, and believe it or not, it is big for the Lions. Confused? Let us explain. The Vikings have been playing much better in recent games than they were earlier in the season. Adrian Peterson is setting records left and right. Because of their recent strength we were actually surprised when the PossessionPoints matchup algorithm actually pointed to the Vikings to win. Should that happen it still only puts the Vikings on track for a mediocre 8-8 season. However, there is an outside shot that would be good enough for the playoffs. But a Viking victory here would also bring the Packers back closer to the Lions. The Packers would fall to 7-2 (still a great record and they are a shoe in for the Playoffs) while the Lions would rise to 7-2 themselves if they could post a “W” over the Cardinals. That game would be our next pick for important contests to watch. If the Lions do win, the playoff picture becomes crowded for the NFC and primed for a dark horse team to come charging through. The NFL is too exciting for words!
It should be an interesting week in the NFL. Let us at PossessionPoints.com know what you think in a comment below and visit PossessionPoints.com to learn more about the PossessionPoints stat and how we use it to forecast.
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