A PossessionPoints Tale of Two Teams

With all the hype of New England’s perfect season, many football fans are unaware that a threat does exist for the Patriots and that threat is called the Jacksonville Jaguars. Since November, we, at PossessionPoints, have extolled the virtues of this Florida team and their ability to post a lot of Green on their PossessionPoints charts. What does this Green mean? The Green means that the Jaguars have been able to sustain long drives that result in a lot of points while preventing their opposition from doing the same. Needless to say, this is a recipe for winning football games no matter who is the opponent. (See their team chart below)



While we are still high on the Jaguars, we want to say here that their first playoff game against the Steelers was a below par performance for this team They veered from their strategy that has served them so well this season. Instead of sticking with the long, methodical drives, they jumped to attempts at quick-strike scores which made them have to rely on their defense for scoring as well. Had it not been for the defense coming to the rescue, it would be the Steelers playing the Patriots this week. The Jaguars had only one of their signature drives against the Steelers – an eight-play, 82-yard, 4:45 drive in the third quarter.

Below you can also view the Patriots’ chart. This team is no stranger to PossessionPoints Green either. But New England has fewer games than the Jaguars are “Green Sweeps” or Green in all PossessionPoints categories. The Patriots had only three “Green Sweeps” this season while the Jaguars earned seven. Unfortunately for the Jaguars, amidst their “Green Sweeps”, they had two games that were colored Red in all PossessionPoints categories. Both these games proved to be losses and were against teams with high-powered passing attacks – the Colts and Saints.
Predictably with a record of 16-0, the Patriots had none of these Red games.





So, the end result is this: If you look at the end of the season average at the bottom of the Regular Season Chart, you will see that the Patriots are the stronger offensive team by a wide margin while the Jaguars are a slightly better defensive PossessionPoints team. The Patriots’ offense has earned them a better PossessionPoints Net Effect (offensive PossessionPoints minus Defensive PossessionPoints) than the Jaguars which gives the Patriots an edge in this matchup in our view.

However, keep in mind that when the Jags do put together that consistent, methodical offense, they are a tough, if not impossible, team to beat. Their biggest weakness of late has been their propensity to give up the big plays. If they can curb this new habit and eliminate turnovers, they could pull the upset of the season. This will be a fun and exciting game to view.