PossessionPoints.com uses its in-game stat to evaluate upcoming matchups. We use a variety of methods to examine how teams will fare against each other. The primary method we use is to look at teams'offensive, defensive and net matchups for their last game, season average and a four-week moving average. We see which team the majority of these comparisons favor and make them our "straight up" pick.
In the second method, we convert PossessionPoints to a score equivalent and compare the two teams. The difference is how many points we think one team will score over the other. The table below is what we published on our Members Page on Tuesday before Playoff Week Two games. As you can see, our numbers indicated that the Patriots were 6.7 points better than the Jaguars so we had the Jaguars and the points.
The one imperfection in the chart above is that our ATS method thought the game between the Seahawks and Packers was going to be close -only a 0.4 difference. Therefore, we had the Seahawks with the points.
We were quite surprised when the two methods picked the Giants and Chargers to win their games. The ATS method actually had the Chargers 9.2 points better than the Colts. So, we were certainly taking the Chargers with the points. In the Giants-Cowboys game, we saw another close game, but we still saw the Giants as 1.6 points better than the Cowboys.
The numbers have surprised us several times this season, and typically when they did surprise us, an upset followed. If you want to see our picks for this week, we have a special offer active on our members page as well as the ability to sign up for next season and get this week and the Super Bowl this year.
As usual, we invite feedback and questions. If you want to find out more about PossessionPoints.com during the off-season, you can watch this blog or give us your email address on the right side of this page. We will gladly send you updates and important NFL info.
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