NFL Copycats: Is Smash Mouth Next?

There is no doubt that the four NFL teams with playoff byes have had much success on the ground which makes PossessionPoints.com
wonder if “Smash Mouth” tactics are going to spread around the league like the Wildcat formation did this season. For anyone who does not know, a Smash Mouth offense is a traditional offense where Tight Ends and Receivers are used as blockers. This tactic leaves open the possibility for some passing as the defense gets pulled to the line to stop the run. Smash Mouth is also known as “three yards and cloud of dust football” or Woody Hayes and Vince Lombardi-style football.

A year ago we thought that rushing football was on its way to being an afterthought with the success of teams like the Patriots and Colts who exploited their passing offense with Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. Teams such as the Saints and Texans tried to emulate the success of the Colts and Patriots by building a high-power offense making running and defense a lesser priority. Last year, defensive-dominated teams such as the Ravens and Bears also seemed to have an “off” year.

However, this year, many teams have switched back to running / defense-dominated philosophies. The Giants have two, 1,000-yard Rushing Backs in Brandon Jacobs (1089 yds) and Derrick Ward (1025 yards). They also have #7 overall defense. The Panthers have two quality Running Backs in DeAngelo Williams (1515 yards) and rookie Jonathan Stewart (836 yards). In the AFC, the Titans feature the duo of LenDale White (773 yards) and rookie Chris Johnson (1228 yards). The Steelers have long been thought of as a run first team. This reputation dates way back to the days of Chuck Noll, known as “Ground Chuck” who built his team on the running game. Unfortunately, this year the Steelers had a tough time keeping their Backs healthy which resulted in lower rushing numbers for their top Backs, Willie Parker (791 yards) and Mewelde Moore (588 yards). It is interesting to note that the teams who used their run to set up their pass game this season, all have first round playoff byes.

Will this be the next theme that is copied around the NFL? Is the firing of the 49ers’ Mike Martz, who in his time with the Rams was known as the “The Father of the Greatest Show on Turf”, a sign of things to come? Martz was known for his complicated passing tactics, but when the defense-oriented Mike Singletary came on as 49ers head coach, the styling of Martz became an albatross around the 49ers neck. Is this why Bill Cowher, who followed the philosophy of Chuck Noll in Pittsburgh, is the hot commodity this week for teams seeking out new coaches?

For this season, the Colts, Eagles and Cardinals would appear to be the teams carrying the “high flying” reputations into the Playoffs. But the Colts have always had a quality back as a compliment to their pass, be it Edgerrin James in years past or Joseph Addai today. The Eagles are best when Brian Westbrook is healthy and can be both runner and receiver in what is usually a pass dominated offense. We expect these teams will continue their aerial assaults forward into 2009, but will their high flying attacks get more grounded?

Watching coaching changes is one way to see if philosophy around the league is shifting; watching the draft is another. Looking at the top prospects such as Chris (Beanie) Wells of Ohio State or Knowshan Moreno of University of Georgia might not give a hint as to coaches’ philosophy since these players would go early in the draft no matter what, but seeing where the next wave of Running Backs go in the draft is another story. Where will LeSean McCoy (Pitt) and Jevon Ringer (Michigan St.) go? Further evidence of a philosophy shift would be apparent if teams look to the sub division schools for Running Backs much like the Ravens did last year with Joe Flacco trying to get a QB. Will the stock of Rashad Jennings of Liberty University rise in the draft this year?

We ask a lot of questions at PossessionPoints.com because we are always searching and checking for stats that produce winners. Our flagship stat, the PossessionPoint, has time of possession as a key component, and time of possession helped dramatically the high flying Patriots in 2007 becoming the top team. However, Defense plays an important role in our Performance Measure which explains why the Eagles, Giants, Steelers, Ravens and Vikings were our top 5 in 2008. In fact, what we like best about our PossessionPoints stat, is that it does not favor an pass offensive strategy or defense-oriented strategy. Instead, it measures execution and success.

The 2009 season will be an education for all fans. We might watch teams known for their offensive skills suddenly face the challenges of making defense their number one priority. Look at the Houston Texans who this week fired their Defensive Coordinator and two other members of the defensive coaching staff. There is a change in the wind and that change may be on the ground and not in the air.