Big Games of Week 1 of 2008

So you are thinking, “What Big Games? It is week 1. It doesn’t matter one way or another what happens in any games this week.”

Well, to some degree you are right, as one loss isn’t going to ruin any team’s season. Just look at the Giants last season. They started 0-2 and won the Super Bowl, so what does this week matter?

The regular season is only 16 games long and every win is precious. Every win puts your team one step closer to its dream of post season play and perhaps the Super Bowl. Plus, the confidence that can be gained in a couple of early wins can’t be underestimated. Would the Packers, a team full of youth last season (other than Favre) had the season it had in 2007 had the Eagles caught a punt in their first game of the season and actually won that game? And with one more win the Eagles would have been 9-7 instead of 8-8 and perhaps in the playoffs as the wild card instead of the Redskins. So, while it may seem unimportant at the time, what happens in week 1 could turn out to be the game your team needed to make the playoffs.

With that said, let’s highlight a couple of games that could make the difference of making or missing the playoffs. We start with Thursday night’s game between the Giants and Redskins. The Giants are fresh off their Super Bowl win, but they are starting the season with a division opponent. They play in perhaps the toughest division in the NFL (AFC South fans have a good counter argument), so every win or loss could be crucial. Our preseason preview has the Giants as the second wild card team with a 10-6 record, and it also has them them winning this opening game as does our Match Up Page which is based on preseason performance data. A loss in this game and a potential 9-7 record could cost the Giants a return to the playoffs. They could pick up a win in a future game we are expecting them to lose, but the Giants are the Champions and no matter what their record is, other teams want to beat the defending Champs. Any shake in confidence this early in the season or any loss could make them realize that 2008 is not 2007, and that little doubt could spiral a team down quickly.

Another big game on the slate this week is the game between the Saints and the Bucs. The Bucs won the division last season but many prognostications including our preseason preview have great things forecast for the Saints. Our preview issue is projecting a 13-3 mark with the Saints winning the opening day contest with the Bucs. However, our Match Up page does have the Bucs taking this game. So, if the Bucs win at New Orleans, Tampa Bay could pave the way for a better season than we currently expect. We forecast them to be 7-9, but this win would bring up them to 8-8. Obviously, nothing is set in stone about our preseason forecasts, but they have served as a good guide in the past and we expect the same again.

The final “big game” we want to talk about is the Jaguars vs. Titans. Our preseason forecast went out on a limb here and forecast the Jags to unseat the Colts as the top of this division. Our preseason issue also has the Titans winning, but our Match Up page (again data based on preseason performance) has the Jags taking this contest. However, it also forecast the AFC South to be the “other” division where every team plays .500 or better. This game could show us if the Jags are all that our numbers thought they could be or if the Titans are the team that might possibly emerge on the top of the AFC South. At this time, we don’t think the outcome of this particular game will affect the playoff chances of either team. We think they both make it, but it could be the signal for which team poses the greatest threat to take the division away from the Colts who seem to win it every year.

Each week, PossessionPoints.com will highlight games we think will be important in terms of the playoffs and you can see from our discussions above that even in week 1 games can be important. Rest assured, every week there will be at least 1 big game and PossessionPoints will highlight it, bring you our analysis and tell you what the outcome may mean for the teams. Let’s have a great 2008!