Optimism Justified for Minnesota Vikings

At this time of year, all teams are optimistic about the upcoming season and why not? Off season trades and the NFL draft infuse new blood into sometimes tired rosters giving even the most desperate teams a feeling of hope. While we at PossessionPoints.com admire the positive attitudes that all teams have, we believe that there are some teams, more than others, who deserve to hold on to those high hopes and optimism. For us, the Minnesota Vikings are one such team.

The Vikings are coming off a season where they ranked ninth in offense, fourth in defense and fifth overall according to the PossessionPoints statistic. While our rankings may differ from the traditional total yardage-type rankings, they do display a high correlation to winning. For example, we projected the 2008 Vikings would go 9-7 and take the division title. We were a little off in that they won the division with a 10-6 record.

Based on those PossessionPoints rankings, we would have expected to see the Vikings work on offense first in the draft. So, we were not taken aback when they did exactly that drafting wide receiver Percy Harvin from Florida and offensive tackle Phil Loadholt from Oklahoma. These selections, coupled with their upgrade at backup QB with the acquisition of Sage Rosenfels (maybe starter after preseason), have prompted us to make an upward adjustment of at least five percent to Minnesota’s offensive numbers from last year.

For reference purposes, a five percent adjustment either positive or negative is considered a small adjustment in PossessionPoints. An average adjustment would range between 10 and 15 percent up or down, and a significant adjustment would be 20 percent or more in either direction.

Minnesota’s three remaining draft picks went to the defensive side of the ball, and we are not yet sure if they got any impact players. With this in mind, we are most likely to forecast that their defense will be about the same as last year. There is certainly room for improvement with the Vikings in defense since they were 22 percent behind the league- leading Ravens. However, given that they ranked fourth in defense last season by our statistic, an unchanged forecast is not all that bad. Even if they remain unchanged in PossessionPoints, they should still easily be a top-10 defense next season.

There is another factor that gives support to our belief that the Vikings should be a tough team again in 2009. By our stat from last season’s performances, the Vikings have the second easiest schedule in 2009. The difficulty is pretty balanced between home and road games as Minnesota has the fifth easiest home and the fifth easiest road schedules. (Having the Lions twice on their schedule does help).

We are long way from making our adjustments to all the teams in the league, and when we do complete the adjustments, the picture may change drastically. For instance, a significant upward adjustment in the Lions’ projected performance could spell trouble for teams who have to face a new Detroit team twice. As we get closer to the season, we will draw more a more concrete picture. As of now, our outlook for the Vikings in 2009 remains positive and hopeful.