Sizing Up Rookie Running Backs

Will Darren McFadden be this year’s Adrian Peterson? Will anybody be? Most likely not, but the more important question for Fantasy players is: will McFadden have star Fantasy potential. McFadden is but one piece of the puzzle that Fantasy players will need to size up before their draft.

Well, as unreliable as “preseason” data is, it is worth looking at week 1 data to see if there might be a diamond in the rough hiding on the bench somewhere. Below is a chart of what the rookie running backs would have been worth in some Fantasy games:




Let’s examine some of them.
Jacob Hester – well the Chargers have 2 running backs on this list: Hester and Marcus Thomas. Hester was their 3rd round pick while Thomas was their 5th round pick. Neither should be expected to turn in big Fantasy numbers behind LT in San Diego. If your league has many bench players you might look at Hester as a back-up.

Chris Johnson – the Titans probably feel pretty good about their #1 draft pick. Johnson was taken 24th overall, and like McFadden, he might turn into a rookie running back that may actually have some fantasy value. He will be a “complement” to LenDale White to start the season, but if Johnson keeps having games like “preseason game 1”, he may earn a greater role. Look for him as a potential sleeper.

Mike Hart – Hart had a nice game and was a capable college back, but the Colts 6th round draft pick will probably spend more time on the bench than the field this year. He had a good preseason game, but don’t expect Hart to add up the Fantasy Points this season.

Tashard Choice – The Cowboys must be thrilled with the performance of their 4th round pick as well as their 1st round pick Felix Jones who was also on the list a little below. Of the two rookies, Jones is more likely to have Fantasy value this year, and with Julius Jones gone, Felix may get his carries. We would expect Marion Barber to be the main man in the backfield with Jones the first replacement and Choice after that.

Tim Hightower – While Cardinal brass probably feels good about their 5th round draft pick, don’t expect Hightower to have too many fantasy performances like preseason week 1 especially if Edgerrin James is healthy.

So we will skip further down the chart to Darren McFadden – the Oakland Raider’s 1st round draft pick was the top running back taken. Many people expect he will have immediate Fantasy value. Preseason game 1 McFadden got a fair amount of first half action, but he didn’t exactly ring up numbers that would make Fantasy managers race to rework their draft priorities.

Right below McFadden on the list is a guy who has had to prove himself at every level. Steve Slaton was a relatively high draft pick taken in the third round, but Fantasy advisors around the nation are telling their faithful to avoid him. The Texans website lists Slaton 5th on their depth chart and were it not for his 4 kickoff returns for a total of 90+ yards, you might wonder if the Texans third round choice will even make the team. But Slaton was in a similar position his freshman year at West Virginia. Injuries forced him into the lineup and he never got out. Could the same thing happen in the NFL? We don’t know. We wouldn’t have him on our opening day Fantasy roster either, but PossessionPoints.com will keep an eye on the super sleeper from Houston.