Sneak Peak at PossessionPoints Fantasy Data

Previously we announced that PossessionPoints.com was expanding into Fantasy Football player data. We told people that we would be compiling lists by position of “expected values”. This is a new concept, so we are going to take the time to explain what “expected values” are in more detail.

Did you ever wish that you could figure out how a player would do by factoring in not only his performance but the performance of the defense he was playing against? Even if you took the time to do this for one player, could you take the time to do the same thing for all the players in the same position throughout the league? When you see a “list” of the top 20 players by position, do you ever wish you knew how much number 5 was worth relative to number 1 or number 10 on the list? Anyone who plays Fantasy Football can see the advantage in this type of knowledge.

Well, PossessionPoints can help the fantasy player attain this knowledge and more by analyzing all the data and help you, the fantasy player pick the best team each week. Below are 3 example lists for wide receivers based on 2007 data (obviously, no 2008 rookies are on these lists yet), and the 2008 schedule. (Off-season player trades and moves have yet to be incorporated into the data base but will be put in prior to most Fantasy Football drafts). The lists below contain the top 10 expected value performers for the first week, the first 4 weeks, and the remainder of the season (which right now is the full season).







This information will help you plan your team whether you are playing a traditional Fantasy game or a “player market” game like Rotohog. (Click on the Rotohog icon to go to their site and find out more about their game, take it from us, it is a lot of fun
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In the typical PossessionPoints style, we give you information with colors as well as numbers. As with our regular PossessionPoints stat that shows NFL team winner and loser projections, "Red" means a bad performance, "Yellow" means a so-so performance and "Green" means a good performance. In our Fantasy Football stat, we have omitted "Yellow" for now. The Red and Green in the Fantasy Football stat conveys information about the Defenses that the player is up against. For example, take Terrell Owens. His 16.10 points is above the value we would have expected if he were up against an “average” pass defense in week 1. Likewise, his average performance is helped by the pass defense numbers of the first 4 opponents. Based on the numbers or just the color-coded graphs, Owens would just edge out Randy Moss for the first week. If you are not a numbers person, don't fret. Look to the colors as your guide.

Randy Moss’s 4-week number is hurt by the fact that the Patriots have a BYE in week 4. When Week 4 arrives that bye week would be highlighted in “Red”. However, as you see from the remainder of the season chart, we would expect Moss to be the top producer at WR in 2008 based on his 2007 data and 2008 schedule.

So, if you are a Fantasy player who tends to draft, hold and hope for the best, then you would love to get one of the top 7 wide receivers for the season. If you look at the charts, you see a 20-point fall off between Jennings and Boldin. The big question with Jennings is: will he be as productive if Favre isn’t throwing to him. Time will tell and his number could change drastically based on early 2008 data. If you actively manage your team with trades or purchases (like the Rotohog game) then you will be much more focused on the “next week” and “next 4 weeks charts”.

Oh so much to talk about and oh so little space. Go to http://www.possessionpoints.com/ for more info. As the season approaches we will post much more info.