PossessionPoints Week 12 NFL Performance Rankings

The top five Performance Rankings for Week 12 according to PossessionPoints.com are the Patriots, Steelers, Colts, Cowboys and Giants. The Packers are still number six despite the fact that they are now 10-1. However, we reiterate the fact that Green Bay has tended to make quick strike scores which lowers their Relative Performance Measure or RPM. The Jaguars are now in 7th place having moved up one spot from last week. Performance Rankings are based on in-game statistics that measure a team's offensive performance. These statistics take into account such elements as the scoring drive, the points scored and time of possession.

In the included chart, you will see each team, their win-loss record and the PossessionPoints measure of relative performance which is colored green, yellow or red. A green chart indicates a positive and strong team performance. A yellow chart indicates a mediocre to fair performance and a red chart tells the tale of trouble ahead.


These Performance Ratings are unique because they are based on in-game stats that are present in each game every week. Not present in these performance ratings are any opinion and or subjective measure of any type.

At the bottom of the pack this week are the same teams as last week: the Bills, 49ers, Dolphins and Jets. The real interest is starting to be with the crowd of teams who have near .500 records. Someone, somewhere has go to break out of this congested pack. NFC 5-6 teams with positive RPM are led by the Eagles who are 8th on our chart and whose performance numbers have been better than their record all season. They are followed by the Saints and Cardinals who also have 5-6 records and are 13th and 14th on our chart. The Lions, who are 6-5 with a negative RPM and are 17th on our list, should be looking over their shoulders at the teams with the positive RPM who are looking for an opportunity to snatch the playoff spot away from them.

Since last week, the Cardinals position has gotten shakier. In Week 11, we had them winning their division, but in Week 12, after losing a game we thought they would win, the Cardinals’ projected record has dropped to 8-8 leaving them out of the playoffs. Also in the NFC, we now see the Saints and Giants as the wildcard teams which figures since they are two of the teams with positive RPMs.

In the AFC, our projected playoff picture remains unchanged. We see the Patriots, Colts, Steelers and Chargers winning their divisions with the Jaguars and Browns as the wildcard teams.

See our chart below with the projected final records of all the NFC and AFC teams.
Again, we welcome comments, questions and feedback.

PossessionPoints.com Goes 12-4 in Picks in Week 12

This week PossessionPoints.com posted another successful week in our picks. Our straight up projections went 12-4 while our picks against the spread went 9-7. We believe our picks could have gone a little better had the games that went into OT had gone our way and if a hurricane hadn’t descended on Pittsburgh to louse up our spread. Oh well, that’s the fun of making projections. PossessionPoints still averages for picks between 70 and 75 percent.

NFL Big Games for Week 13

The First big game of this week is truly the first game of the week: Thursday night’s contest between the Packers and the Cowboys. While neither of these teams appear to be in any peril about winning their division or making the playoffs, this game is significant because the winner will most likely gain home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. PossessionPoints.com agrees with the odds makers who project the Cowboys to be a seven-point favorite.

The next big game, of which there are quite a few this week, is the Seahawks at the Eagles. This game will be in Philly, and PossessionPoints has the Eagles winning but not by a very large margin. The Seahawks have a two-game lead in their division, but a loss here could bring the Cardinals right on to their heels. Meanwhile, the Eagles are sitting on a 5-6 record and need a win here if they hope to revive their playoff hopes for this season. The Eagles have been aided in their playoff quest by the two recent Lions’ losses and find themselves just one game out of the number two wildcard position. We need to mention that this number wildcard spot is quite crowded. At present, there are six teams with a 5-6 record all hoping to catch the Lions who sit at 6-5 or the Giants who are at 7-4.

The one thing we can say about the Seahawks is that the Birds will win four of the remaining five games on their schedule. No, we are not psychic and don’t buy Super Bowl tickets yet, Seattle. We just looked at their schedule and noted that in their final five games, their foes include: the Eagles, Falcons, Cardinals and Ravens. Sorry, we could not resist.

The third big game on our list is the Bucs vs. Saints. The Saints trail Tampa Bay in the NFC South by two games. A New Orleans’ win would raise their record to 6-6 while dropping the Bucs to 7-5. This would put the Saints in the thick of that number two wildcard race as well as in striking distance for the division itself should the Buccaneers fall further. PossessionPoints current projections have the Saints winning this game and getting the second NFC wildcard spot with a record of 9-7. So, to put it bluntly: this game is huge for New Orleans. They blow this one, they are in deep trouble.

The Lions and Vikings game is the next important contest this week because these teams also are 5-6 and vying for that coveted second wildcard spot. Is any team not 5-6? Anyway, let’s face it. Neither the Lions nor the Vikings have a shot catching the 10-1 Packers even if Green Bay does lose this week.

Okay, on to the Browns and Cardinals. This game is big for (must we say it?) the 5-6 Cardinals as well as the 7-4 Browns. Cleveland is just one game behind the Steelers, and a win here against the Cardinals could land them in a tie with Pittsburgh should the Steelers “slip up” on their turf against the Bengals (That was our feeble attempt at humor at the weather conditions on Monday night).

Okay, no one laugh, but we cannot NOT list the Dolphins vs. Jets as one of our big games this week. This could be the Dolphins’ best hope for a victory this year. Isn’t everyone just rooting for them to win just one? What can it hurt? Even if they win, they are still in line for the number one draft pick next season.

Again, we welcome comments, feedback and opinions. Visit our site at PossessionPoints.com.

PossessionPoints.com Welcomes in Holiday Season with Three Terrific Subscription Offers

Happy Holidays to all NFL fans! We want to take the time to thank our subscribers, our blog readers and all those who offer feedback on our site and here. Have a wonderful holiday season and New Year!

If you have wondered how you would enjoy a subscription to PossessionPoints.com, this is the time to find out. We are offering special Holiday pricing so you can see what makes PossessionPoints so unique and accurate.

You can get the remainder of the 2007 season and all of 2008 for only $49.95

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As a subscriber, you receive: our weekly newsletter Points of the Week emailed to you, a weekly matchup page that projects games based on our stat straight up and against the spread, and team pages showing each NFL team's weekly and season performances with trend lines for future weeks.

Go to http://www.possessionpoints.com/, enter our site and you will be sent to our subscribe page. Happy Holidays to one and all!

The How, When and Where of the Patriots’ First Loss

What? Are we saying that the Patriots can lose this season? Well, the popular answer is “No”, and quite frankly, we at PossessionPoints.com have had the Patriots going undefeated since our season preview issue. But we wanted to have some fun, and turned the computer loose to try and figure out who could be the miracle team to beat New England.

There are a lot of factors that would go into a victory over the Patriots. First, a winning team would need a ball-controlling offense. This means that the team would have to be able to sustain long drives that result in scores – not field goals, but touchdowns. We considered in this category as potential winners the Steelers and Giants who both have shown promise in ball control and are still on the regular season schedule of the Patriots.

Next criteria, is a strong defense capable of stopping the Patriots’ offense - at least once or twice during the game. Okay, this trait has been hard to find if non-existent this season, but there are teams on their schedule who have exhibited a sound defense such as the Giants and Steelers. However, for the Giants, the loss of Mathias Kiwanuka , puts New York’s defense on thinner ice.
This may sound silly, but the third major factor in a win over the Patriots is the weather. Playing in New England on a windy, cold, blustery day could inhibit the high-powered passing offense of Tom Brady and the Patriots. Even a small dent in that offense could change the outcome of the game.

So, given all these factors and the remaining schedule of the Patriots, who did PossessionPoints.com come up with as the leading contender to beat New England? (Drum Roll Please) The Jacksonville Jaguars in an AFC Championship Game!

"What?" you say. "You didn’t even mention them in the previous paragraphs!" Well, we have solid reasons why the Patriots need to look out for the Jaguars. First, Jacksonville has earned two PossessionPoints green sweeps in a row against the Titans and Chargers plus two others in the first half of the season against the Falcons and Chiefs. What these green sweeps say is that Jacksonville understands the importance of executing long offensive drives that end in scores.
For example, the Jaguars in Week 3 opened up their game against the Broncos with an 11:45 touchdown drive. This is exactly what a team would need to do to beat the Patriots. Drives like this keep Tom Brady and the New England offense off the field and idle. On the other side of the ball, the Jaguars have earned five green defensive performances this season. To be fair, they have had three red performances as well, but overall their defense does have the capability to stop strong offenses.

Consider this fantasy scenario: It is a frozen, windy day in New England and the Jaguars win the opening toss. Jacksonville goes into their long- ball possession mode and opens the game with a touchdown after almost a 12-minute possession. Meanwhile powerless to take any action, Brady and company are on the sidelines watching almost 12 minutes of the game tick away. When the Patriots’ offense does finally get on the field, they feel a bit anxious and out of rhythm for the first time this season. In this scenario, a strong wind could also take Brady’s deep pass away from him which also diminishes his game control capabilities. While Brady is nearly perfect under pressure when he is in control of the game, a scenario like this could affect New England’s precision play and ultimate victory.

Is this a probable event? Nah. But the point is that broadcasters, fans and even NFL teams are so enamored by the Patriots this season, they are failing to take notice of teams that have the talent to derail that perfect season. Every week, we utter the words, “Wow, that was surely an upset.” Those words might well be uttered this year still about New England.

For this nightmare scenario for New England to come true, the Jaguars still have plenty of work ahead of them. First, they have to beat the Colts in their remaining game with them this season and steal the division from them. This is not an easy task. If accomplished, this would earn them a bye in the first round of the playoffs. Then, they need a victory in their first playoff game to meet the Patriots in Foxboro since New England will definitely have a home field advantage. Okay, while we admit this is a farfetched idea, the NFL is filled with science fiction scenarios that have come true. We shared our Patriots’ defeat fantasy scenario with you; we invite you to tell us who you think has the potential to upset New England. Below for your reference is the Jaguars team page from our Members’ area at PossessionPoints.com.

See our most recent article on the topic "More Thoughts on How the Patriots Can Be Beaten".

Week 11 Performance Rankings

The top five Performance Rankings for Week 11 according to PossessionPoints.com are the Patriots, Steelers, Colts, Giants and Cowboys. The Packers are number six the same as they were last week. In this week’s game, Green Bay continued their winning ways, but returned to their habit of quick strike scores which served to lower their Relative Performance Measure or RPM. Performance Rankings are based on in-game statistics that measure a team's offensive performance. These statistics take into account such elements as the scoring drive, the points scored and time of possession.

In the included chart, you will see each team, their win-loss record and the PossessionPoints measure of relative performance which is colored green, yellow or red. A green chart indicates a positive and strong team performance. A yellow chart indicates a mediocre to fair performance and a red chart tells the tale of trouble ahead.


These Performance Ratings are unique because they are based on in-game stats that are present in each game every week. Not present in these performance ratings are any opinion and or subjective measure of any type.

This week, The Bills fell from 20th to 29th courtesy of the pummeling they took from the Patriots. Even though the Jets upset the Steelers, they remained dead last in RPM. The Dolphins took one step down in ranking from 30th to 31st.

If we look at Projected Standings according to PossessionPoints.com, we see that the Cardinals are now projecting to an 11-5 record up one from their projected record last week because of their win over the Bengals. This new projection would give the Cardinals the NFC West division title with the Seahawks getting a wildcard spot. The Titans’ projected finish fell from 12-4 last week to 10-6 this week because of their loss to the Broncos on Monday night.

See our chart below with the projected final records of all the NFC and AFC teams.

NFL Big Game for Week 12

This week, at PossessionPoints.com,, we have only one game to highlight. Thanksgiving’s game between the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers is the contest that holds the most significance for the playoff picture. Does anyone ever remember a Thanksgiving game in Detroit that held so much meaning? The Lions made this game even more significant with their loss to the New York Giants last week. As it stands now, we project the Lions will lose this game against the Packers and finish the season with a 9-7 record which might very well leave them out of the playoffs.

If by chance, the Lions do win, it will raise their season record projection to 10-6 and put them right in the mix for a playoff spot. A win will still leave them well short of the Packers who we project to finish with a 14-2 record unless they lose this game, and in that case, they will finish with a 13-3 record. If you are a Lion fan, Packer fan or just interested in the whole playoff picture, we welcome your take on the Lions' possibilities. Send us a comment and tell us what you think.