NFL Upsets! What Upsets?

Pick up most sports pages and you would definitely think that this year was the “year of the upsets” in the NFL. However, if you followed the Performance Rankings or RPM of PossessionPoints.com, you would have seen a completely opposite view. Why the big difference?

First of all, the Performance Rankings of PossessionPoints.com are based solely on our proprietary in-game statistic which on a game-for-game basis indicates winners at a very good rate. No opinion or personal viewpoints go into these rankings.

By season end, there are enough games played that the average Performance Rankings are a great indicator of teams that can win in the playoffs. Thus, our company mantra: if you have a good PossessionPoints team, you have a good team!

So, we are not the least bit surprised that in our week 17 rankings, the No. 1, No. 3and No. 4 teams are among the four teams still alive. If anybody knows of a traditional “opinion-based” Power Ranking that can say that, please let us know.

We said at the beginning of this article that there have been no upsets, and we guess if you just go by our ranking chart, we could force ourselves to find possibly one. The No. 16 Cardinals beat the No. 13 Falcons in the first week of the playoffs. That outcome could have been seen as an upset as that was the only time that a lower RPM team beat a higher RPM. However, if you look at an RPM of 12.66 vs. an RPM of 9.57, the upset is minimal at best. (See chart below)

As for the rest of the games, we saw nothing earth shattering at all: the No. 1 Eagles beat the No. 5 Vikings and the No. 2 Giants. The No. 3 Ravens beat the No. 12 Dolphins and the No. 10 Titans. The No. 16 Cardinals followed up their “upset” victory over the Falcons with a win over the No. 18 Panthers. The No. 7 Chargers beat the No. 20 Colts, but then they lost to the No. 4 Steelers.

So, other than a mild upset by the Cardinals, we think the playoffs have been pretty true to form.

Below is a reprint of the PossessionPoints.com regular season-ending Performance Rankings. We took a lot of heat having a team that just squeaked into the playoffs at No. 1 and another No. 6 seed wild card team at No. 3, but guess what? We are smiling a bit now.

The current rankings on our site include the two rounds of playoffs, the Eagles remain No. 1, but the Giants dropped to No. 4 with the Ravens and Steelers at Nos. 2 and 3, respectively. They are less than a single RPM point apart; however, by our measure that game is a real toss-up. The Cardinals have had a post season RPM over 30and have moved up to No. 14 from their season ending No. 16.

If the Cardinals have another +30 or better PossessionPoints performance they could earn the first “real” upset of the postseason.

NFL Copycats: Is Smash Mouth Next?

There is no doubt that the four NFL teams with playoff byes have had much success on the ground which makes PossessionPoints.com
wonder if “Smash Mouth” tactics are going to spread around the league like the Wildcat formation did this season. For anyone who does not know, a Smash Mouth offense is a traditional offense where Tight Ends and Receivers are used as blockers. This tactic leaves open the possibility for some passing as the defense gets pulled to the line to stop the run. Smash Mouth is also known as “three yards and cloud of dust football” or Woody Hayes and Vince Lombardi-style football.

A year ago we thought that rushing football was on its way to being an afterthought with the success of teams like the Patriots and Colts who exploited their passing offense with Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. Teams such as the Saints and Texans tried to emulate the success of the Colts and Patriots by building a high-power offense making running and defense a lesser priority. Last year, defensive-dominated teams such as the Ravens and Bears also seemed to have an “off” year.

However, this year, many teams have switched back to running / defense-dominated philosophies. The Giants have two, 1,000-yard Rushing Backs in Brandon Jacobs (1089 yds) and Derrick Ward (1025 yards). They also have #7 overall defense. The Panthers have two quality Running Backs in DeAngelo Williams (1515 yards) and rookie Jonathan Stewart (836 yards). In the AFC, the Titans feature the duo of LenDale White (773 yards) and rookie Chris Johnson (1228 yards). The Steelers have long been thought of as a run first team. This reputation dates way back to the days of Chuck Noll, known as “Ground Chuck” who built his team on the running game. Unfortunately, this year the Steelers had a tough time keeping their Backs healthy which resulted in lower rushing numbers for their top Backs, Willie Parker (791 yards) and Mewelde Moore (588 yards). It is interesting to note that the teams who used their run to set up their pass game this season, all have first round playoff byes.

Will this be the next theme that is copied around the NFL? Is the firing of the 49ers’ Mike Martz, who in his time with the Rams was known as the “The Father of the Greatest Show on Turf”, a sign of things to come? Martz was known for his complicated passing tactics, but when the defense-oriented Mike Singletary came on as 49ers head coach, the styling of Martz became an albatross around the 49ers neck. Is this why Bill Cowher, who followed the philosophy of Chuck Noll in Pittsburgh, is the hot commodity this week for teams seeking out new coaches?

For this season, the Colts, Eagles and Cardinals would appear to be the teams carrying the “high flying” reputations into the Playoffs. But the Colts have always had a quality back as a compliment to their pass, be it Edgerrin James in years past or Joseph Addai today. The Eagles are best when Brian Westbrook is healthy and can be both runner and receiver in what is usually a pass dominated offense. We expect these teams will continue their aerial assaults forward into 2009, but will their high flying attacks get more grounded?

Watching coaching changes is one way to see if philosophy around the league is shifting; watching the draft is another. Looking at the top prospects such as Chris (Beanie) Wells of Ohio State or Knowshan Moreno of University of Georgia might not give a hint as to coaches’ philosophy since these players would go early in the draft no matter what, but seeing where the next wave of Running Backs go in the draft is another story. Where will LeSean McCoy (Pitt) and Jevon Ringer (Michigan St.) go? Further evidence of a philosophy shift would be apparent if teams look to the sub division schools for Running Backs much like the Ravens did last year with Joe Flacco trying to get a QB. Will the stock of Rashad Jennings of Liberty University rise in the draft this year?

We ask a lot of questions at PossessionPoints.com because we are always searching and checking for stats that produce winners. Our flagship stat, the PossessionPoint, has time of possession as a key component, and time of possession helped dramatically the high flying Patriots in 2007 becoming the top team. However, Defense plays an important role in our Performance Measure which explains why the Eagles, Giants, Steelers, Ravens and Vikings were our top 5 in 2008. In fact, what we like best about our PossessionPoints stat, is that it does not favor an pass offensive strategy or defense-oriented strategy. Instead, it measures execution and success.

The 2009 season will be an education for all fans. We might watch teams known for their offensive skills suddenly face the challenges of making defense their number one priority. Look at the Houston Texans who this week fired their Defensive Coordinator and two other members of the defensive coaching staff. There is a change in the wind and that change may be on the ground and not in the air.

Saints: Number One Offense – So What!

If you watch the Saints vs. Lions game, no doubt you will hear these words that have been spoken all year: the Saints have the number one Offense in the NFL. Well, this is true if you measure Offensive effectiveness in the traditional way as total yards or points per game. If the Saints are the number one Offense in the League, then it is no surprise that Drew Brees is also ranked the top passer in terms of yards. Well, the Saints may be ranked number one, and their QB may have the admiration of every sports announcer in the world, but guess what? It does not matter because the Saints also have a 7-7 record which means they don’t get to go to any playoff games unless they go as spectators. How can this be?

Well, let’s examine the yards and points stats. This traditional analysis can easily be skewed by game situations. If you look at the Saints’ games this season, on the surface it seems as if the Saints lost a lot of close games. However, let’s look at some of their losses:

In Week 3: New Orleans fell behind 21-3. The Saints rebounded but finally lost 34-32 to the Broncos. Brees threw for 421 yards.

In Week 5: The Saints were down 20-10 in their game against the Vikings. They managed to stage a comeback and take the lead, but relinquished it again and lost 30-27. Brees had 330 yards passing.

In Week 7: The Saints lost 30-7 to the Panthers, and Brees still had 231 yards.

In Week 10: The Saints were down 27-6 at one point in their game against the Falcons. At the end, the Saints lost to the Falcons by a score of 34-20. In this game, there were two, late "so what" drives of 80 and 69 yards which made the game seem closer than it was. These “so what” points helped to pad Brees’ stats as well. He threw for a total of 422 yards.

In Week 13: The Saints were down 20-10 to the Bucs in the 4th quarter. Then, another late game rally allowed them to tie the game. Again, that rally was short lived, and the Saints could not hold on. They ended up losing by a score of 23-20. Brees still threw for 296 yards.

In Week 15: The Saints were down 21-7 to the Bears. Again, they took the lead but lost in OT by a score of 27-24. Brees had 232 yards.

Brees and the Saints piled up the yards this season even though they lost seven games. It might be safe to say that some of the yards the Saints posted were not due to a stellar Offense but rather due to their opponents’ Defense who may have relaxed a bit after securing large leads. The Saints are no different than any other team in that moving the ball or getting in the end zone may not be as difficult a task when they are on the losing end of a lopsided score. Games like week 3 and 10 illustrate this fact. The Saints were losing by large margins in both of these games, but Brees’ combined passing yardage in these games totaled 843 yards. His total passing yardage for this season so far is 4332.

Should we assume that New Orleans’ Defense should bear the blame for the Saints not making the playoffs? Well, their Defense is 20th in yards and 25th in scoring. The Defense must be the reason why New Orleans is left out of postseason play. Who could win with such a lackluster Defense, right?

Well, before we condemn the Defense, let’s go back to 2006 and look at the last time the Saints led the NFL in Offense. In that year, the Colts were third in Offense and their Defense ranked 21st in yards and 23rd in scoring. The Colts went 12-4 and won the Super Bowl. It seems winning with those kinds of Defensive stats is possible. By the way, that year the Saints’ Defense was ranked 11th and they went 10-6 and got to the NFC championship.

The difference between the Saints of 2008 and Colts of 2006 may boil down to this: the Colts’ Defense did not have impressive numbers because the Colts frequently had big leads which at times they surrendered thus allowing their opposition to pile up the stats. The Saints of 2008 have had some big games, but they have also had games in which they fell way behind forcing them into a rapid catch-up mode. In some of these games, the Saints actually did manage to crawl back into the game only to give up the ground they gained to lose.

So, we wonder: what is the advantage of being the number one team in yards and points if that team cannot win? As Herm Edwards said when he was Head Coach of the Jets “You play to win the game.” Stats without winning seem shallow. That is why PossessionPoints.com is always seeking significance in statistics. We constantly work on correlating stats to winning, and if we can’t correlate the stat to winning, we tend to not think that much of the stat.

NFL Big Games for Week 16

We are winding down and heading into the final two weeks of the regular NFL season. For some teams, this is their do-or-die week. This is also the week in both Conferences where home field advantage will most likely be determined by this week’s results. We are going to talk about these two games first.

In the NFC, the 11-3 Panthers travel to the Meadowlands and take on the 11-3 Giants. While both of these teams are certainly going to the playoffs, the Giants would like to do things a bit differently than they did last year and actually play their playoff games at home. The Panthers and the Giants both feature strong running attacks, so this should be a classic, old-school football game.

While the Panthers are building momentum, the Giants seem to be losing it as they have lost their last two games. New York definitely needs to turn on the heat if they want to experience the same euphoria in the playoffs that they felt last year.
In the AFC, the 11-3 Steelers travel to the 12-2 Titans. The Titans have had some serious injuries on their defensive line, and much like the Giants, Tennessee needs to bring back the passion they had in the earlier games of the season to carry them through the playoffs, and that might mean playing all the stars even though a playoff spot is secure.

Another big game is the 9-5 Ravens traveling to the 9-5 Cowboys. This inter-conference matchup may well mean that the loser does not make the playoffs. In the preseason, few expected the Ravens to get this far, but many considered the Cowboys to be a favorite for postseason play. However, the way the Ravens have played this year, hopes are high in Baltimore and beyond. Dallas has managed to sidestep their personal team turmoil to win last week and keep them alive, and they have to continue to pull together if they are going to go far in the playoffs or even make the playoffs.

The final two games we want to highlight are two of the games that have significance in the NFC wildcard race. The 9-5 Falcons travel to take on the NFC North-leading 9-5 Vikings. The Vikings could lose and still make the playoffs, but if the Falcons lose, they open the door for the Eagles to take their place in the playoffs.
The last game we want to talk about is the Eagles vs. the 7-7 Redskins in Washington. The Redskins have no chance to make the playoffs, but if they beat the Eagles, they will certainly put a damper or a soaking on the Philadelphia playoff bid.

Don’t be surprised to see non-playoff contenders happily play the role of spoiler to teams trying to get a spot in postseason play. Every year, a team with a good chance at the playoffs seems to lose their shot because of a spoiler team who wants to go out with a bang.

NFL Performance Rankings Week 15

Last week, we noted the obvious fact that the “Performance Rankings” of PossessionPoints.com are far different from the traditional opinion-based Power Rankings that you read about in many other places. For proof of this, you need to look no further than the number 1 spot on our Rankings, which is held by the Philadelphia Eagles for the second week in a row. How can this be when the Eagles have an uphill fight just to make the playoffs? Well, we would like to take a little time this week to explain how the Eagles can occupy this coveted spot.

At PossessionPoints.com, we color code a team’s Offensive, Defensive and Net performances (the difference between the Offensive and Defensive performances). We use Green to denote “good” performances; Yellow to symbolize “average” performances; and Red to signal “poor” performances. The colors change at specific values, and we correlate a winning percentage to each of these values. For instance a “Green” Offensive performance wins about 75% of the time (this is based on the data we have kept over the past 3 seasons.) A “Green” Defensive Performance wins over 85% of the time while a “Green” Net wins over 90% of the time. Our Performance Rankings (Relative Performance Measure – RPM) are based on the Net measure which as we say correlates over 90% of the time to winning in individual games.

So, how did a team that has only won 57% of their games wind up with an average Net that is Green? Looking at Philadelphia’s individual games is the easiest way to explain this. In their losses, the Eagles’ Offense and Defense took turns causing them to lose. The Eagles had three ‘Red’ Defensive performances which resulted in losses for all three of these games. A typical team will win 25% of the Red performances. The Eagles also had two Red Offensive performances and lost one of these games and tied one of these games. A typical team will win 15% of these Red Offensive performances. What is unique about the Eagles is that none of their poor Offensive and Defensive performances occurred in the same games. Compare this to the Giants who have had six Red Defensive performances and lost only three of these games. In the games they won, their Offense picked up the slack. In the three games the Giants lost, they recorded their only three Red Offensive performances of the year.

So, most “good” teams will on occasion have a bad game on both sides of the ball and lose those games. The Eagles have not shared that pattern. Their “bad” performances on Offense and Defense have occurred in different games causing them to pile up the losses. When they had a Red Offensive performance, their Defense was Green in the game they tied and Yellow in the game they lost. Statistically, both a Green and Yellow Defensive performance should have been able to overcome the Red Offense. The Eagles failed to do that.

In their three Red Defensive Performance games, the Eagles had two Green Offensive performances and one Yellow Offensive performance. Again, they lost all three of these games which other teams would have turned into wins.

We have spent a lot of time explaining the Eagles this week, so we will just quickly summarize the other top five teams on our Performance Chart: The Vikings, Ravens, Steelers and Giants round out the top 5.



On to the bottom 5. It is no surprise to find Cincinnati in our bottom 5 at number 30 since by our RPM measure they have had the toughest schedule in the league. Next week, we are going to talk about how each team’s strength of schedule has affected their performances this season.
The other 4 teams in our bottom 5 are the Rams, Lions, Seahawks and Raiders. These teams’ schedules have been no picnic either.

A final note, if the Eagles do manage to make the playoffs, the other teams in the NFL better take them seriously because they do have the capability to beat any team in the NFL if all their units show up to play.

The 4th Down Gamble – Think Twice

Pure statistics say that a team’s success rate to convert a 4th down to a 1st down or a score is about 50% when that 4th down is for short yardage. However, NFL teams “go for it” only about 20% of the time. A few coaches such as Bill Belichick and Jack Del Rio have developed a “reputation” as mavericks who toss caution to the wind and take the chance on 4th down more often than their coaching colleagues. While these coaches may opt to keep their punting teams off the field more frequently, their decision to go on 4th down is still below 50 percent. Why?

Well, PossessionPoints.com loves stats, and in fact, our business was built on the premise that our in-game stat can help a coach evaluate when it is a good time to take that 50-50 risk. But we are not in the same camp as some of the other stat analysts who think coaches should be going for it on 4th down more often. Stats can help determine when it is a good time to take a chance, but stats do not capture the major emotional factor in football that occurs when two teams are on the line trying to prevent or achieve that all important and possibly game-turning 1st down play.

When a team “goes for it” on 4th down, play-by-play announcers usually offer comments such as “The coach is showing great confidence in his Offense keeping them out there to pick up those one or two yards.” That may be a true analysis, but anyone who has ever played a competitive sport knows that it is the Defense who makes or breaks these momentous plays. When a coach keeps the Offense out on the field, he is sending a clear message to the opposing Defense that says, “We do not respect your ability to stop us.” Some Defenses may take this stance as a challenge; others see it as an insult. Either way, a Defense is going to be fired up with adrenaline pumping, and they will do whatever it takes to stop a 4th down conversion especially if that conversion will result in a touchdown.

Let us examine some recent games where a 4th down conversion came into play. In this season’s Minnesota – Chicago game in week 13, the Bears held a 7-3 lead in the first half and were down on the Minnesota goal line. The Bears had 3rd and goal at the one-yard line but were unsuccessful at getting in the end zone. On 4th and 1, Coach Lovie Smith had two options at his disposal. He could have kicked a field goal (a distance shorter than an extra point where the success rate this year has exceeded 99%) to take a 7 point lead or go for the touchdown and an 11 point lead. A logical person might have argued “What is the worst scenario that could happen in this situation?” The answer: the Bears fail in their attempt to score the touchdown, and the Vikings get the ball in the worst possible field position for them at their own one-yard line. Well, Smith chose to forego the three almost certain points and opt for a touchdown play. Unfortunately, for Chicago, the Vikings’ pride did not share his enthusiasm for a touchdown. Instead, they showed off some of their own talent and stopped the Bears in their tracks.

Okay, how bad could this be? The Bears surmised they would return the Defensive favor and possibly force the Vikings into a Safety and take the two points. After all, that is almost a field goal – right?
With this somewhat dire situation facing the Vikings’ Offense, most coaches might have decided to put in their short yardage Offense and try to move the ball off the goal line into calmer waters. However, the Vikings decided to let their Offense feed off the adrenaline rush of their Defense and instead called for a deep sideline pass. The Receiver managed to get behind the Defender, and lo and behold caught the Quarterback’s pass and sprinted for a 99-yard touchdown. Suddenly, in two plays, the game went from what could have been a certain Bears 10-3 lead to a Vikings 10-7 lead. The Vikings never looked back and went on to trounce the Bears 34-14.

This same week, the Jags found themselves behind in a game and their prospects looked bleak. Jacksonville tried not once, but twice on the same drive, to convert a 4th down. It was early in the 4th quarter, and the Jags were down 16-3, so the time seemed right to gamble. The Jags pushed their luck and succeeded in their first attempt which was at the Texans’ 33-yard line, a plausible field goal distance. They gave up three points, but they had a chance to move the ball further toward a seven-point score. However, that 1st down victory was short lived at best. Within seconds, the Jags found themselves in the same 50-50, 4th down scenario on the Texans’ five-yard line. Now, here the Jags have a situation where you have thrown down the gauntlet to your opponents and came out the victor once. When they threw down that gauntlet a second time, The Texans’ pride charged forward, and this emotional surge paid off. Jacksonville failed to convert the second 4th down again which was at a field position that was a virtual certainty for a field goal. Would a field goal have changed the fate of the Jaguars? Who knows? But a field goal might have taken the wind out of the sails of the Texans and made this game closer.

Next time you are watching a game and you want a coach to just “Go For It” and forego his “over conservative” approach, think of these two situations. PossessionPoints.com absolutely concurs that sometimes a coach does “need to” go for it on 4th down. The original PossessionPoints stat was founded as a tool to help coaches make that 4th and short decision. It came into existence because of a late game 4th down punt decision where the team that punted (the Eagles in the 2006 playoff game against the Saints) never got the ball back and lost the game. That was a “need to” situation. In general, we would say taking the risk on 4th down should be more along the lines of the traditional approach have long practiced: take the chance only when absolutely necessary.

NFL Big Games Week 15

There are several big games this week, and hopefully, they will be good games to watch. The first one that PossessionPoints.com wants to highlight is a battle for the AFC North. The 10-3 Steelers are taking on the 9-4 Ravens. While neither of these teams is likely to miss the playoffs, the winner of this game would be in prime position to win the Division and perhaps earn a first-round bye.

The next game on the highlight list is the game between the top two teams in the NFC East. The 11-2 Giants, who have already locked up the Division, will travel to Dallas to take on the 8-5 Cowboys. Obviously, the Cowboys need this game more than the Giants. The Giants are all but certain to have a first-round bye while the Cowboys are not even guaranteed a playoff spot yet. To make matters more dire for the Cowboys, the 7-5-1 are very close on their heels at only a half-game behind. Another team wanting that last wildcard spot are the 8-5 Falcons.

This brings us to our third big game which features the Falcons who are hosting their Division rivals, the 9-4 Bucs. The Bucs are fresh off a Monday night loss to the Carolina Panthers which puts them one game behind the Panthers for the Division but still one game ahead of everyone else in the Conference for a wildcard spot. The Bucs do not want to lose this cushion.

The final big game for this week features two teams battling to keep their somewhat slim playoff chances alive. The 7-6 Bears are hosting the 7-6 Saints. The loser of this game can begin thinking about their draft strategy and can forget about their playoff strategy. The winner of this game still needs a great deal of help to make the playoffs, but their hopes will most likely still be alive after this week is over.

It is becoming crunch time and the NFL excitement is growing. We hope you all enjoy this week’s games!