Sizing Up Rookie Running Backs

Will Darren McFadden be this year’s Adrian Peterson? Will anybody be? Most likely not, but the more important question for Fantasy players is: will McFadden have star Fantasy potential. McFadden is but one piece of the puzzle that Fantasy players will need to size up before their draft.

Well, as unreliable as “preseason” data is, it is worth looking at week 1 data to see if there might be a diamond in the rough hiding on the bench somewhere. Below is a chart of what the rookie running backs would have been worth in some Fantasy games:




Let’s examine some of them.
Jacob Hester – well the Chargers have 2 running backs on this list: Hester and Marcus Thomas. Hester was their 3rd round pick while Thomas was their 5th round pick. Neither should be expected to turn in big Fantasy numbers behind LT in San Diego. If your league has many bench players you might look at Hester as a back-up.

Chris Johnson – the Titans probably feel pretty good about their #1 draft pick. Johnson was taken 24th overall, and like McFadden, he might turn into a rookie running back that may actually have some fantasy value. He will be a “complement” to LenDale White to start the season, but if Johnson keeps having games like “preseason game 1”, he may earn a greater role. Look for him as a potential sleeper.

Mike Hart – Hart had a nice game and was a capable college back, but the Colts 6th round draft pick will probably spend more time on the bench than the field this year. He had a good preseason game, but don’t expect Hart to add up the Fantasy Points this season.

Tashard Choice – The Cowboys must be thrilled with the performance of their 4th round pick as well as their 1st round pick Felix Jones who was also on the list a little below. Of the two rookies, Jones is more likely to have Fantasy value this year, and with Julius Jones gone, Felix may get his carries. We would expect Marion Barber to be the main man in the backfield with Jones the first replacement and Choice after that.

Tim Hightower – While Cardinal brass probably feels good about their 5th round draft pick, don’t expect Hightower to have too many fantasy performances like preseason week 1 especially if Edgerrin James is healthy.

So we will skip further down the chart to Darren McFadden – the Oakland Raider’s 1st round draft pick was the top running back taken. Many people expect he will have immediate Fantasy value. Preseason game 1 McFadden got a fair amount of first half action, but he didn’t exactly ring up numbers that would make Fantasy managers race to rework their draft priorities.

Right below McFadden on the list is a guy who has had to prove himself at every level. Steve Slaton was a relatively high draft pick taken in the third round, but Fantasy advisors around the nation are telling their faithful to avoid him. The Texans website lists Slaton 5th on their depth chart and were it not for his 4 kickoff returns for a total of 90+ yards, you might wonder if the Texans third round choice will even make the team. But Slaton was in a similar position his freshman year at West Virginia. Injuries forced him into the lineup and he never got out. Could the same thing happen in the NFL? We don’t know. We wouldn’t have him on our opening day Fantasy roster either, but PossessionPoints.com will keep an eye on the super sleeper from Houston.

How Much Difference Does A Favre Make?

What Difference Does a Favre Make? I guess this is the question that is burning in the minds of NFL fans and teams everywhere. But according to PossessionPoints the answer is: Not as much as we might have thought. Sorry, Favre devotees, but this is what we have learned while working on our Preseason Preview issue these past few weeks.

We had thought we had accounted for all the major shifts of players. We had adjusted the Green Bay PossessionPoints Offense and Defense numbers down to account for the retirement of Brett Favre. Then, with Brett un-retiring, we thought that perhaps we had to just undo those adjustments. However, when we saw that the Green Bay staff was not welcoming Favre back with open arms, we realized that they must really see something they like in Aaron Rodgers since they stuck to their guns and finally traded Favre to the New York Jets after a three-week drama-fest that rivaled the story lines on Days of Our Lives. So, we had to reconsider and re-adjust our numbers again to not only suit the new situation in Green Bay but in New York as well.

What does Favre’s addition to the Jets do? Initially, we were expecting the Jets to have a pretty dismal year, so we had made 0 adjustments to their PossessionPoints numbers over last season. With the arrival of Favre, we went back to our program and adjusted the Jets’ PossessionPoints Offense numbers up 25% and the Defense up 5%. What was the impact of that adjustment? Not as much as one would think. The new numbers brought the Jets up to just a 5-11 record. For curiosity sake, we wanted to see how much of an effect Favre needed to have on the Jets for them to get into the playoffs. We pushed up the PossessionPoints Offensive improvement to 50% (a generous number), and the Jets’ projected record went to 9-7 which still misses the playoffs. So, we bumped up their PossessionPoints improvement to 55% and that still put them at 9-7. Okay, we had some fun and cranked their improvement numbers to 60%. Finally, that gave us a significant jump in the Jets’ projections. With that extreme adjustment of numbers upwards, the Jets finally become an 11-5 playoff team.

Now, we don't know about you, and perhaps we were being a little unfair by not improving the Jets before they acquired Favre, but even with the addition of Favre, we don't really expect the Jets to improve their Offensive PossessionPoints performance by 60%. As we were playing with adjustments, we thought it was interesting that the biggest impact of Favre moving to NY seemed to be on the NFC West, Yes, that's right, just how good the Jets and Bills are this season may well determine whether or not the Seahawks or Cardinals rise to the top of the NFC West. We had a tie-breaker situation with the Seahawks and Cardinals with both their records at 9-7. As we adjusted the Jets’ performance upwards, they first beat the Cardinals giving the division to the Seahawks. Then, as we adjusted their PossessionPoints numbers up further, the Jets beat the Seahawks which puts Cardinals and Seahawks back into a tie-breaking situation.

Hopefully, these are the last preseason Favre adjustments anyone has to make. Maybe, now we can all just get back to football – the sport – not the drama behind it.

PossessionPoints.com Season Preview Issue

PossessionPoints.com will release its Preseason Preview issue on August 18th. As always, PossessionPoints.com is a paper-free and environmentally conscious company. Our e-magazine Issue goes beyond the typical pre-season information. We analyze every team and project their performances based on not only their last season’s PossessionPoints but changes made in personnel and coaching. The Preseason Preview is a valuable tool to have during the season.

Remember, new to the 2008 season is our in-depth and unique coverage of Fantasy Football. Using a new analysis method, PossessionPoints.com will forecast individual player values on a one-week, four-week and remainder of season basis. This is an essential and invaluable tool for serious Fantasy players. As with our team coverage, PossessionPoints.com uses its easy red,yellow and green color-coded graphics to tell you exactly which player is the hot pick.

Of course, during the season, our members will receive via e-mail, their weekly matchup pages that project winners both straight up and against the spread, as well as performance rankings based on the PossessionPoints stat. Subscribers have access to our Members area where they can view trend lines and more detailed information on their favorite teams.

Look to our site or blog for team and player information in the coming weeks.

Disgruntled Players on the Move

Let the games begin! Already this week, NFL players, who have made it clear that they are unhappy with their teams, have made bold moves to find a team they like more. The first players to participate in the “I don’t like where I am and I want a new team” game are Jason Taylor of the Miami Dolphins and Jeremy Shockey of the New York Giants.

Jason Taylor’s switch from Miami to Washington came out of a legitimate need for Washington to find a Defensive End. On the opening day of the Redskins’ training camp last Saturday, Washington lost veteran Defensive End Phillip Daniels to a season-ending knee injury. What activity caused such a severe injury on the first day of camp is not quite known, but it left Washington in a lurch. Enter Jason Taylor who had indicated to Miami on several occasions that he wanted to be traded to a contender. If that did not come to pass, his playing days would probably be over after this year. When Taylor found out about the Redskins’ needs and their interest in him he extended his playing time for at least another two seasons. To acquire Jason Taylor, the Redskins gave up a second round draft pick in 2009 and a sixth round draft pick in 2010. All in all, PossessionPoints.com feels this was a bargain for the Redskins as Taylor is a six-time Pro Bowl player and is still in great playing condition.

This week the Giants also got rid of a disgruntled teammate when they traded Jeremy Shockey to the New Orleans Saints. Shockey has made no effort to hide his displeasure for both Giants’ management and Giants’ Quarterback, Eli Manning. It’s funny to note that when Shockey was an active Giant, Manning stumbled in his efforts to become a top-notch player. However, as soon as Shockey and his loud opinions found themselves disabled, Manning began to show off his obvious talent and less obvious leadership ability and led the Giants to the Super Bowl. Did Manning’s transformation cause the Giant front office to re-think Shockey’s leadership role on the team?

In the long run, the Giants’ reasoning does not matter. What does matter is that Shockey gets to go play for his former Offensive Coordinator Sean Payton in the Big Easy and the Giants’ get a second and fifth-round draft pick.
Player moves such as these is why PossessionPoints.com does not rush to put out our Preseason Preview issue. What do you think about this trade? Do you think the Giants made a good deal or do you think Shockey was too valuable a player to give up? We would love to know your opinion.

PossessionPoints.com adds Upickem to its site in 2008

One of the newest features in PossessionPoints.com this season is the addition of the Upickem contest. Players can sign on to play the weekly contest through PossessionPoints.com’s website. The contest is free to all. There is no need to be a PossessionPoints subscriber. However, once you are on the site, feel free to see what PossessionPoints.com can offer you as an NFL fan or Fantasy Football player. As a subscriber, you will receive weekly matchup pages for all NFL teams plus individual analysis of each NFL player on a weekly and 4-week basis.

After you sign on to the Upickem site, you will be eligible to win UPickem’s weekly national prize and their season-long prize as well. Those who sign on to Upickem through PossessionPoints.com will also be eligible for some surprises from PossessionPoints.com as well.

Join the fun and come on board with PossessionPoints.com this season. Details are on our website at http://possessionpoints.com

Sneak Peak at PossessionPoints Fantasy Data

Previously we announced that PossessionPoints.com was expanding into Fantasy Football player data. We told people that we would be compiling lists by position of “expected values”. This is a new concept, so we are going to take the time to explain what “expected values” are in more detail.

Did you ever wish that you could figure out how a player would do by factoring in not only his performance but the performance of the defense he was playing against? Even if you took the time to do this for one player, could you take the time to do the same thing for all the players in the same position throughout the league? When you see a “list” of the top 20 players by position, do you ever wish you knew how much number 5 was worth relative to number 1 or number 10 on the list? Anyone who plays Fantasy Football can see the advantage in this type of knowledge.

Well, PossessionPoints can help the fantasy player attain this knowledge and more by analyzing all the data and help you, the fantasy player pick the best team each week. Below are 3 example lists for wide receivers based on 2007 data (obviously, no 2008 rookies are on these lists yet), and the 2008 schedule. (Off-season player trades and moves have yet to be incorporated into the data base but will be put in prior to most Fantasy Football drafts). The lists below contain the top 10 expected value performers for the first week, the first 4 weeks, and the remainder of the season (which right now is the full season).







This information will help you plan your team whether you are playing a traditional Fantasy game or a “player market” game like Rotohog. (Click on the Rotohog icon to go to their site and find out more about their game, take it from us, it is a lot of fun
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In the typical PossessionPoints style, we give you information with colors as well as numbers. As with our regular PossessionPoints stat that shows NFL team winner and loser projections, "Red" means a bad performance, "Yellow" means a so-so performance and "Green" means a good performance. In our Fantasy Football stat, we have omitted "Yellow" for now. The Red and Green in the Fantasy Football stat conveys information about the Defenses that the player is up against. For example, take Terrell Owens. His 16.10 points is above the value we would have expected if he were up against an “average” pass defense in week 1. Likewise, his average performance is helped by the pass defense numbers of the first 4 opponents. Based on the numbers or just the color-coded graphs, Owens would just edge out Randy Moss for the first week. If you are not a numbers person, don't fret. Look to the colors as your guide.

Randy Moss’s 4-week number is hurt by the fact that the Patriots have a BYE in week 4. When Week 4 arrives that bye week would be highlighted in “Red”. However, as you see from the remainder of the season chart, we would expect Moss to be the top producer at WR in 2008 based on his 2007 data and 2008 schedule.

So, if you are a Fantasy player who tends to draft, hold and hope for the best, then you would love to get one of the top 7 wide receivers for the season. If you look at the charts, you see a 20-point fall off between Jennings and Boldin. The big question with Jennings is: will he be as productive if Favre isn’t throwing to him. Time will tell and his number could change drastically based on early 2008 data. If you actively manage your team with trades or purchases (like the Rotohog game) then you will be much more focused on the “next week” and “next 4 weeks charts”.

Oh so much to talk about and oh so little space. Go to http://www.possessionpoints.com/ for more info. As the season approaches we will post much more info.

PossessionPoints.com Gives Fantasy Football players a new and accurate way to pick their players

PossessionPoints.com Gives Fantasy Football players a new and accurate way to pick their players

A New Statistic that assigns values to players on a weekly and four-week basis

PossessionPoints.com® announces a brand new statistic to help Fantasy Football players pick their teams accurately and easily. PossessionPoints.com assigns an estimated value to each NFL player on not only a weekly basis, but on a continuous four-week basis.

Last season, PossessionPoints.com amazed football fans and broadcasters with its new stat that challenged traditional NFL analysis. PossessionPoints.com uses unique red, yellow and green indicators to show fans how their favorite teams are performing. Subscribers to PossessionPoints.com receive weekly re-caps of games, projections of NFL winners and losers, and Performance Rankings based on the PossessionPoints stat. “This year we are embracing Fantasy Football as well,” explained Ed Cavanagh co-founder of PossessionPoints.com and developer of the stats. “Our Fantasy Football stat goes beyond a one-week analysis of each player. We give Fantasy players a four-week peek into the future. That is unique in the Fantasy Football game.”