2009 NFL Preseason Performance Rankings

While we like to ignore most preseason records, we do take a look to see how teams measure up in our “relative performance measure” (RPM). However, similar to preseason records, YOU CAN’T READ TOO MUCH INTO THESE NUMBERS. The reason we do present them is to highlight any warning signs that teams may be exhibiting.

While these RPMs are interesting to look at and speculate about, you have to remember two things: Only three preseason games are used in generating these numbers and preseason games are not coached or even played like regular season games.

Since the RPMs are an average of just three games , a single game like the Saints thumping of the Raiders, can skew things for these two teams. The Saints vaulted to the top while the Raiders sunk to the bottom. The Saints’ RPM number of 90 is a better game average than the 2007 Patriots who had an RPM of 83 and went 16-0. At possessionpoints.com, we admit that we like the Saints a lot this season, but not that much.


It is nice to see that the preseason Saints are not doing anything to make us back off our preseason preview prediction which says that New Orleans will be a playoff team this year. But note that the Falcons are right there on the Saints’ heels in the preseason, so that could be a very interesting division to watch.

Right behind the Saints and Falcons are last year’s two Super Bowl teams: the Steelers and Cardinals. The Steelers had a full season RPM last year of just over 40 and their preseason number is very similar.

The Giants, Eagles, Texans and Packers are all teams we think could and should make the playoffs, and their RPMs are right around 0. It is not impossible for teams to get into the playoffs with an RPM that low, but when it happens typically a team loses their first playoff game. (See the article we wrote in January, Playoff Upsets – What Upsets?)

An RPM in the low, single-digit, negative numbers to an RPM that goes positive is not something to get too concerned about in the preseason from our point of view.

The opposite is true too. You’ve probably heard it a hundred times this preseason: The Lions went 4-0 last year in the and then went 0-16 in the regular season. Preseason numbers would have been misleading at best putting the Lions near the top of the chart..

So, are we concerned about the 1-2 Chargers who have a terrible -55 RPM? Yes, we are a little, To us, this might be a warning flag. We would rather see the Chargers’ RPM up there with the 0-3 Broncos. But the Chargers have started slowly in the regular season in the past and still managed to make the playoffs. Will they repeat that trend this season? Perhaps, they are getting their slow start out of the way in the preseason, so they can get into a winning frame of mind quickly in the regular season.

We hope that is the case, as they might not be able to afford being upset by the Raiders in their opener this year since they have the Ravens and Steelers as two of their next three opponents. We would hate to see them go into their early bye week with a 1-3 record especially since our preseason preview was expecting them to be 3-1 at that point.

Ain’t the preseason fun?

2009 Fantasy Football Player Lists With A Twist

It is late preseason, and if you can’t find a list ranking players for Fantasy Football then you aren’t looking too hard.

Fantasy lists vary from site to site, but possessionpoints.com likes to look at things a bit differently. Our player lists contain an “expected value” next to the player’s name. This expected value helps Fantasy participants gauge if there really is a difference between the No. 4 and No. 5 players on the list. Of course, this “expected value” is based on one particular scoring system, which we list at the end of this article for your reference. Depending on the Fantasy game you may play, this expected value may vary some, but it still gives you a relative difference between players.

When you look at most lists, look to see if they are they giving you a list for the best player next week or for the remainder of the season? Can you even tell? Fantasy can get complicated, so you have to know what your list is telling you.

Over the last three years, we have found that many Fantasy players have the most fun when they can actively manage their team. To accommodate this management need, we provide three lists for each player position: an Expected Value for Next Week, an Expected Value for the Next Four Weeks, and an Expected Value for the Remainder of the Season. We give you a sneak peak at these lists later in this article.

If you are someone who wants to set your roster and only make changes when injury or something like that forces you to, then look at the Remainder of the Season charts. You’ll have your up and down weeks, but in the end, we think the top players on this list will serve you best.

However, if you are like most Fantasy players, you will want to know what to expect from your players this week and who on your roster to sit or play. For this type of game involvement, you need the Expected Value for Next Week chart.

Four weeks into the NFL season completes a quarter of the season, so even if you only adjust your roster a few times a season, you may want to look at the next quarter of the season to see where your players stand. That’s why we have the Next Four Weeks list.

See for yourself below how the lists can vary by looking at just the top five in each player position.

Quarterbacks:


It would seem that it is hard to go wrong with any of the top five QBs for the season: Brees, Brady, Rodgers, Romo and Rivers. Tony Romo is one that we struggled with as far as any offseason adjustments. He lost a top target, Terrell Owens, but perhaps team chemistry will make the difference here.

If we had him on our fantasy team, we would keep a close eye on how he performs the first few weeks. We expect he will be with the leaders the first week, and the first 4 weeks. However, if he underperforms early, perhaps you might want to see if you can upgrade as there is a pretty good chance he will fall short of being a top five for the full season.

Running backs:



Let’s see: Adrian Peterson, Adrian Peterson and Adrian Peterson. Anybody surprised by that? Of course not, but some of the other players on our lists surprised us a bit.

DeAngelo Williams isn’t on the “Next 4 weeks” chart, mostly because he has a bye in week Four. This shows what every Fantasy player knows, and that is you have to manage carefully for bye weeks. Our full lists also highlight in what week players have byes. It looks to us that Matt Forte, Clinton Portis and Maurice Jones-Drew may have a better first quarter of the season than they will the remainder of the season.

Wide Receivers:



Larry Fitzgerald is tops on our Expected Value for the Remainder of the Season chart, but his bye in week four keeps him off the “Next 4 Weeks” chart. Greg Jennings is fifth on the season chart, and we really think the Rodgers to Jennings combination could be as potent as the Brady to Moss combination.

Calvin Johnson will be a top target for whoever is the starting QB in Detroit. However, the biggest variable with Calvin Johnson will be the Lions themselves. If, as a team, they improve over last year, then he will be a top, if not the top Fantasy receiver this year. For Calvin Johnson to become the top receiver in week one depends on whether or not the Saints have improved on defense. If in your draft you have the choice between Calvin Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald, nobody would be the least bit surprised by a selection of Fitzgerald.


Tight Ends:




Similar to the other lists, nobody will be surprised to see Witten, Gates, Clark or Gonzales on the top of these lists. Where the lists get interesting is seeing Shockey at number two for the first week. We guess we he can attribute this to the fact that the Saints open up against the Lions in Week one.

Defense / Special Teams:



Defenses that can generate turnovers and score are featured on these lists. The Ravens, Steelers and Titans all fit that description. We are a little worried that we may not have made enough adjustments to the Eagles’ defense from last season, and that they won’t live up to our expected values. They have a new defensive coordinator and have already lost their starting middle linebacker for the season. However, Asante Samuels appears primed to have a big season in the turnover department. If he can convert a few of his picks into touchdowns, the Eagles should have a top five defense.

Kickers:




Kickers are typically taken in the later rounds of the draft, and with good reason. If you get one of the good ones, there isn’t that much difference over the course of the season. So draft a top kicker, and forget about him, as long as he doesn’t get hurt, he should contribute.

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For completeness, the scoring system on which our Expected Values are based is:
Touchdown is 6 points - passing, receiving, rushing or Kick return (a passing TD the QB and receiver get 6pts. Kick return points go to player not DEF/special teams)
Passing: 0.03 points per yard passing, -3 points for an INT
Rushing: 0.1 points per yard
Other: -2 points for a fumble, 2 points for 2 Point conversion.
Kicking: 3 points for FG, +1 if over 39 yards, +0.1 point each yard over 40, 1 point for PAT, -1 point missed PAT or FG under 30 yards
Defense/special team: 6 points TD (not kickoff or punt returns), 2 points safety, 2 points INT, 2 points fumble recovery, 2 points blocked kick (FG, punt, PAT), 1 point QB sack, 12 points if No Points are allowed, -0.5 points for each point allowed.

PossessionPoints.com's Preseason Preview Issue Has Arrived

PossessionPoints.com is thrilled to announce that our Preseason Preview Issue is now available on our site. Our 35-page publication analyzes each NFL team according to our PossessionPoints stat.

In our analysis, we offer our projections for each team's performance for the upcoming season. We base our projections on last season's PossessionPoints performance Rankings and make adjustments to them by taking into account key factors such as "coaching continuity, strength of schedule and changes in offense and defense.

We also want to stress that PossessionPoints.com Rankings are different from traditional power rankings in that they offer no opinion or emotional bias. They are completely objective and quantifiable.

Our preview issue also offers upside scenarios for each team where we look at where a team can improve their records and downside scenarios which focuses on how a team may fall.

Most importantly, we will give you our projection on who is going to the Big Dance in February.

Last season, PossessionPoints.com had a 153-103 record in game projections - not bad when you consider we made our projections before a preseason game was even played.

To get a copy of our Preseason Preview Issue, just go to PossessionPoints.com. You can order just the preview issue or you can sign up for a membership and get the preview issue for free!

Since we are in preseason, our special pricing on membership still applies. Once the regular season begins, prices go up because the value of the PossessionPoints stat goes up with each game.

Come and see what PossessionPoints.com can do for you. As a member, you will receive weekly match up pages for all games both straight up and against the spread (ATS), weekly team pages with trendlines, fantasy player updates that analyze players on a weekly, four-week and remainder of season basis and unique information that no one else has.

Could Peyton Manning Lock Up His Trip To Canton This Year?

Many people already consider Peyton Manning a surefire Hall Of Famer, and quite frankly we won’t argue with them. But we know there are still some doubters. This year, Peyton has to take on a larger leadership role than ever before in his pro career. His team is going through a major transition with a new head coach, Jim Caldwell, and a new offensive coordinator, Clyde Christensen.

No matter how much successors strive for consistency with their predecessors, they are still different people with different ways of doing things. No two people, even if they have worked together in the past, perform exactly alike. How these differences translate to the team will, in our view, dictate how the Colts season goes.

If football were a normal business, these changes would be viewed as “safe” since you promoted the assistant head coach / QB coach to head coach and the wide receivers coach to offensive coordinator. Both coaches have been with the Colts for eight years. On the surface, this could look like a very smooth natural progression with little effect on the Colts.

However, let’s face facts. NFL football is anything but a “normal business.” Team composition changes from year-to-year, and the fine line that separates good and bad moves around the league each year as well. Teams go from the cellar to the penthouse and vice versa in the blink of an eye.

The Colts could be in for a very difficult season if the Titans can maintain their stride from last season, the Texans continue to improve, and the Jaguars return to their 2007 form.

If the Colts win their division and “make some hay” in the playoffs, we have to believe it will be in large part due to the leadership and playing ability of their quarterback. If that doesn’t push any doubter over the edge as far as Manning’s Hall Of Fame credentials, we don’t know what would.

When we look at the Colts of last season, we see two different teams. Early in the year, Manning struggled to get over his offseason knee surgery. Look at the chart below:




In the last nine games, the Colts’ offense was 92% better by our measure than it was in the first seven games.

Was Peyton Manning’s health the only thing that caused this turn around? It is hard to say because the defense performed much the same in the last nine games as it did in the first seven. In fact, there was only a negligible one percent difference by our measure.

So, perhaps we are putting too much on the shoulders of Manning, but we will be watching the Colts this year with great interest. As we said, conditions appear right for the Colts to have a mediocre season, but in our view, the wildcard is Peyton Manning.

PossessionPoints.com Gearing Up for 2009

If you haven't signed up for 2009, now is a great time. Our Preseason Preview Issue is just a couple of weeks away.

We detail how teams look as measured by our PossessionPoints stat.

We cover each team, game by game and tell you how good or how bad they may be.

This season's subscribers will get our Preseason Preview Issue as soon as it comes out. Some of the things we said in last year's issue:

"The Steelers could have a very special year...and a 12-4 record"

"Hey, hey, hey Cardinal fans, this could be your year! ...The result is a 9-7 record"
Of course, we didn't forecast every team's record right, but in our annual preseason issue, we also look at what could go right and what could go wrong and how it affects our forecast.

Here are some examples from last season:

We originally put the Patriots at 14-2, but when we talked about what could go wrong we said:

"It will probably take a key injury or two say to Tom Brady and Randy Moss (no jinx intended), to derail the Patriots this year. But if they do suffer such a hardship, their record could fall to 9-7."

"The computer does give hope if the Dolphins can improve their performance 15% more on offense and defense. If we up their improvement to 25% in each category, their projected record actually vaults all the way to 10-6." (they actually went 11-5 and improved 30% on offense and 28% on defense by our measure)

Sign up today to get 2009's issue as soon as it comes out in mid-August.
What is this one-of-a-kind information that PossessionPoints.com provides worth to you?

Well, until the end of preseason, you can be privy to PossessionPoints.com's information and analysis for an affordable price of $29.95 for the entire season. After the preseason, the subscription price doubles!

If you are a football fan or fantasy football player, don't miss out on our annual preseason special!

Go to PossessionPoints.com now

Looking Forward to a Full Year of Mike Singletary

As pre-season camps get ready to get underway around the NFL, we find it is time to get rolling on our Pre-Season Preview issue. In this issue, PossessionPoints.com examines all teams’ off-season moves and upcoming schedules. We use this information to make forecasting adjustments for the upcoming season.

Coaching continuity is one key factor we use for forecasting adjustments. For last season’s winning teams, we place greater weight on coaching continuity than we do on last season’s losing teams.

This season, we find ourselves more concerned about the Indianapolis Colts than we do about the St. Louis Rams. Although the Colts have replaced Tony Dungy with his appointed heir, Jim Caldwell is still an unknown commodity in the head coach position.

The question mark around the Colts' new coach makes it difficult to automatically keep the team at a high level of performance; it prompts us to give a neutral to negative adjustment to the Colts in our assessment.

Even though Caldwell has been with the Colts’ organization, it’s hard to quantify his leadership abilities, chemistry with players, and game-day decision in this new position until he performs as a head coach.

Conversely, the Rams hired Steve Spagnuolo, who comes in with a good reputation that was built as the Giants defensive coordinator. Since the Rams have struggled in the past seasons, their performance in the upcoming season will most likely improve. In our calculations, a new coach in this situation becomes a neutral to positive adjustment.

The 49ers are an interesting case. They have Mike Singletary, who took over after the seventh game last season.

When we look to forecast the 49ers’ upcoming season, we need to decide if we want to base our calculations on their full season 2008 data or just the nine games Singletary coached, in which San Francisco went 5-4.

The chart below shows the 49ers’ season split into the pre-Singletary and post-Singletary periods:



Their overall PossessionPoints performance improved 109 percent under Singletary: that overall improvement was driven by the 40 percent improvement in their defense.

The other consideration that comes into play is the team’s '09 schedule. Based on last year’s “overall” PossessionPoints numbers, the 49ers’ '09 schedule is the 26th hardest or 7th easiest, depending on how you want to look at it.

We realize that when a coach takes over in the middle of the season, there is a limit of what he can change. For Mike Singletary to have the effect he had makes for some potentially high expectations next season.

Let’s face facts: the 49ers are not in the toughest division in football. If we get to December and they are contending with the Cardinals and Seahawks for the division title, we would not be surprised.

As each season looms, the debate over which division is the toughest intensifies. We, at PossessionPoints.com , are no strangers to this debate and love to participate in it as well. Here is our preliminary overview of the NFL divisions. We hope it might help you decide who you think should be known as the “Toughest Division in the NFL”.

This year, we feel there are surprises on the horizon as the parity between NFL teams is on the increase. For many people, parity is a bad word meaning mediocrity, but we view it as a positive. We believe fans will see more teams playing up or raising the bar in performance which could lead to some interesting game results down the road.

As of now, we still look at the NFC East and the AFC South as the division strongholds. Most of the NFL experts and analysts seem to view the Giants and the Eagles as formidable threats on both offense and defense, and many of these experts have one of these teams taking the division and possibly going to the Super Bowl.

While we do not argue this point, we do not want to count out Dallas or the Redskins. Both teams had their struggles last year, but both teams managed a .500 or better season. An injection of talent and the elimination of some team distractions may be enough to hoist one or both of these teams into the playoff arena. With so much potential, this division definitely rates a vote as the toughest in the NFL.

In recent years, the AFC South has also become a force to be reckoned with. It would not surprise us in the least to see the Colts, Titans or even the Texans make their way into the heart of the playoffs. We know that the Colts have adjustments to handle with the retirement of Tony Dungy and offensive coordinator Tom Moore. However, their new head coach, Jim Caldwell, who has worked for Dungy since his Tampa Baydays, was the first choice of Dungy, and the Colts are trying to bring back Moore as a consultant for the team. So, the adjustments may not be too difficult to handle.

As for the Jaguars, we look at them as a team that has to prove a bit more before we list them in the same class as their division opponents. However, they take nothing away from the threat that this division holds as they were a playoff team in 2007. If the Jaguars can forget 2008 and return to their 2007 form, the AFC South could well be the toughest division.

There is a sound argument to also view NFC South, the AFC East and the NFC South as contenders for the toughest division crown. With the Panthers, Falcons and Saints in the NFC South, this division may be ready to let loose this season as they did last season. All the teams in the NFC South also had a .500 or better record in 2008.

Now, Bucs’ fans, do not get upset, but we think it is Tampa Bay that may have a tough time bringing this division home. The Bucs could find themselves playing a very long season this year.

The AFC East gets a boost from the return of Tom Brady to the Patriots’ roster. If the reports about his strength and agility are true, there is no doubt that the Patriots can be viewed as potential Super Bowl contenders. We also assume that the Dolphins have the ability to repeat or beat their 2008 performance. Only the Bills at 7-9 were below .500 in this division last season.

If the Patriots’ return to their 2007 dominance, they can make it more difficult for other teams in their division to get to a .500 or better season.

The Jets may join the club of teams that start rookie QBs with a new head coach. It worked for Atlanta and Baltimore last season, so why not this season? With so much potential waiting to be unleashed from these AFC East teams, this division might turn out to be the toughest of all.

We have to admit that we think the toughness of the NFC North is compromised by the presence of the Detroit Lions. Yes, they have the No. 1 draft pick and yes, their future looks brighter. But it is a long road from 0-16 to the playoffs, no matter what you are paying your new quarterback. We do look for the Lions to improve, but we are doubtful of their ability to make the playoffs.

With that said, the NFC North has some of the toughest competition around with the Bears, Packers and Vikings who are all capable of bringing home a division championship. The most likely suspects for the division title for us at this point are the Vikings or Bears who will no doubt benefit from the addition of Jay Cutler.

So, as of now, we see that five out of the eight divisions have a clear shot at winning the “toughest” moniker, but let’s see how the remaining three divisions – the AFC North and the AFC and NFC West fare.

We know that the AFC North includes not only the Super Bowl Champs, the Pittsburgh Steelers, but their strongest opponent, the Baltimore Ravens as well. Both of these teams will most likely be playoff bound again. However, when your division includes the Bengals and Browns who both have a ton to prove this season, it’s hard to seriously see this division as the toughest.

The AFC West has many questions to answer this year. We do believe that this division is the Chargers to lose. We do see improvements with the Raiders and Chiefs but these improvements are probably not enough to make this division the toughest in the NFL.

The Broncos are now without Jay Cutler, and they also have a new head coach in Josh McDaniels. It is hard to tell if a team will gel with a new quarterback and a new head coach. So, while we see a great deal of potential in this division, we think it is premature at best to say that this division is the toughest.

Last but not least is the NFC West. Okay, the Super Bowl runner-up, the Arizona Cardinals are in this division, but we have to consider the Seahawks, who were perennial champs prior to last season, as a team to consider for the division crown. We said before last season started, that the coaching situation would undo the Seahawks’ season and that proved true. However, with Jim Mora on the sidelines for all of last year, the transition for this team should be complete. We are looking for the Seahawks of old to make a return.

In the NFC West, we also are anxious to see how the 49ers perform in their first complete season with Mike Singletary. Will his high-motivation coaching tactics continue the success he saw with the 49ers last season? Another team that could be on the upswing are the Rams. If their new head coach Steve Spagnola can work the wonders with the entire Rams team as he did with the Giants’ defense, who knows what lies ahead?

Well, that is our preliminary look at the divisions and the positive and negative components of each. Again, what surprises us the most about this season is the increase in parity that exists throughout the league. In our view, parity can only add to the excitement of the game. We are anxious for the 2009 season already.

If we were to rank the divisions in 2008 based on how teams did in our Performance Ranking the final ranking would be:

NFC East

AFC East

NFC South

AFC South

AFC North

NFC North

AFC West

NFC West)