Tuesday, April 7, 2009
NFL Draft: Need Line Help? Don't Wait
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/152466-nfl-draft-need-line-help-dont-wait-until-late
Sunday, April 5, 2009
NFL Mock Draft: Selections 1 to 32
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/151117-nfl-mock-draft-selections-1-to-32
Saturday, March 28, 2009
Can the Draft Rescue the Eagles' Off Season
Yes, believe it or not, the NFL draft is once again within our midst. The months of conjecture, hypothesizing and just plain guessing are coming to a close. Before all the deals and picks are made, we, at PossessionPoints.com thought we would add our own data to the mix over the next few weeks to see what holes the teams are looking to fill.
Before we look to the draft, we like to look at a team’s last-season PossessionPoints performance to assess their strengths and weaknesses. Last season, the Eagles were a good PossessionPoints team both offensively and defensively, and we were not the least bit surprised that the Eagles got to the NFC championship game as a wildcard. In fact, our Preseason Preview issue last year had the Eagles heading to the Super Bowl.
In PossessionPoints, we color-code outstanding performances in green and miserable performances in red. During the 2008 season, the Eagles attained nine green offensive performances and eight green defensive performances. This was balanced against just three red offensive and three red defensive performances. So, despite all the melodrama surrounding the McNabb benching and other distractions, the Eagles did prove to be a very good team.
According to our proprietary stat and data, if the Eagles left things as they were, any addition to the offense or defense would have been an asset for the team even though Philadelphia did not cry out for any major changes on either side of the ball. However, let’s look at what the Eagles have done in the off season which, we admit, has changed our view. The Eagles have lost to free agency the defensive leader who was the spirit behind the team, Brian Dawkins. Also gone are running back Correll Buckhalter, tight end L.J. Smith, safety Sean Considine and tackle Tra Thomas. Technically a free agent and also a potential loss for the Eagles is tackle John Runyon.
To compensate for these real and potential losses, Philadelphia has signed Tackle Stacy Andrews from the Bengals, Defensive Backs Sean Jones from the Browns and Rashad Baker from the Raiders as well as Running Back Leonard Weaver from the Seahawks. These "non-standout” NFL names from ‘’non-standout” NFL teams do not inspire confidence in the Eagles’ loyal fans who are still reeling from the loss of Dawkins.
So, we now see the draft as a place where the Eagles must look if they are to fix their broken wings. Fortunately for the Eagles in 2009, they have 11 picks overall in the seven rounds and four picks in the top 100. We would like to see the Eagles address the running back, tight end and wide receiver positions on offense, but knowing the Eagles, we would not be surprised to see them draft a lineman before anybody else.
The top-rated tight end, Brandon Pettigrew, out of Oklahoma State is 6’6” and 263 pounds. We know McNabb loves throwing to his tight ends and this guy could be quite the target. He is almost certain to be around when the Eagles pick at 21. The Eagles could gamble that he will be there at 28, but that gamble may cost them. If by some chance we see that University of Mississippi’s Michael Oher is still there at 21, we would not be disappointed if Philadelphia selected this offensive tackle. In selecting Pettigrew or Oher, The Eagles may have to take the chance that they would strike gold like the Bears and Texans did last year with Matt Forte or Steve Slayton, if they wait to pick a running back with either their 53rd or 85th pick.
One running back we see that might be gold with a later pick is Rashad Jennings from Liberty University – a non-football power school. We all know the Eagles love these schools, and sometimes these picks pan out. Just look at Brian Westbrook who is a product of basketball powerhouse Villanova.
On the defensive side, Philadelphia may be able to draft someone who has a younger body than Brian Dawkins even though that body will not replace the emotional leadership that Dawkins provided. We can see the Eagles going for a safety selection with their 53rd or 85th pick. Some of the prime candidates who could be around then would be William Moore out of Missouri, Patrick Chung out of Oregon or Chip Vaughn, known to be a big-hitting enforcer, out of Wake Forest.
If Moore is available, he would be our favorite pick, but if not, we would like them to see if they could get Vaughn at 85 or later.
Before we look to the draft, we like to look at a team’s last-season PossessionPoints performance to assess their strengths and weaknesses. Last season, the Eagles were a good PossessionPoints team both offensively and defensively, and we were not the least bit surprised that the Eagles got to the NFC championship game as a wildcard. In fact, our Preseason Preview issue last year had the Eagles heading to the Super Bowl.
In PossessionPoints, we color-code outstanding performances in green and miserable performances in red. During the 2008 season, the Eagles attained nine green offensive performances and eight green defensive performances. This was balanced against just three red offensive and three red defensive performances. So, despite all the melodrama surrounding the McNabb benching and other distractions, the Eagles did prove to be a very good team.
According to our proprietary stat and data, if the Eagles left things as they were, any addition to the offense or defense would have been an asset for the team even though Philadelphia did not cry out for any major changes on either side of the ball. However, let’s look at what the Eagles have done in the off season which, we admit, has changed our view. The Eagles have lost to free agency the defensive leader who was the spirit behind the team, Brian Dawkins. Also gone are running back Correll Buckhalter, tight end L.J. Smith, safety Sean Considine and tackle Tra Thomas. Technically a free agent and also a potential loss for the Eagles is tackle John Runyon.
To compensate for these real and potential losses, Philadelphia has signed Tackle Stacy Andrews from the Bengals, Defensive Backs Sean Jones from the Browns and Rashad Baker from the Raiders as well as Running Back Leonard Weaver from the Seahawks. These "non-standout” NFL names from ‘’non-standout” NFL teams do not inspire confidence in the Eagles’ loyal fans who are still reeling from the loss of Dawkins.
So, we now see the draft as a place where the Eagles must look if they are to fix their broken wings. Fortunately for the Eagles in 2009, they have 11 picks overall in the seven rounds and four picks in the top 100. We would like to see the Eagles address the running back, tight end and wide receiver positions on offense, but knowing the Eagles, we would not be surprised to see them draft a lineman before anybody else.
The top-rated tight end, Brandon Pettigrew, out of Oklahoma State is 6’6” and 263 pounds. We know McNabb loves throwing to his tight ends and this guy could be quite the target. He is almost certain to be around when the Eagles pick at 21. The Eagles could gamble that he will be there at 28, but that gamble may cost them. If by some chance we see that University of Mississippi’s Michael Oher is still there at 21, we would not be disappointed if Philadelphia selected this offensive tackle. In selecting Pettigrew or Oher, The Eagles may have to take the chance that they would strike gold like the Bears and Texans did last year with Matt Forte or Steve Slayton, if they wait to pick a running back with either their 53rd or 85th pick.
One running back we see that might be gold with a later pick is Rashad Jennings from Liberty University – a non-football power school. We all know the Eagles love these schools, and sometimes these picks pan out. Just look at Brian Westbrook who is a product of basketball powerhouse Villanova.
On the defensive side, Philadelphia may be able to draft someone who has a younger body than Brian Dawkins even though that body will not replace the emotional leadership that Dawkins provided. We can see the Eagles going for a safety selection with their 53rd or 85th pick. Some of the prime candidates who could be around then would be William Moore out of Missouri, Patrick Chung out of Oregon or Chip Vaughn, known to be a big-hitting enforcer, out of Wake Forest.
If Moore is available, he would be our favorite pick, but if not, we would like them to see if they could get Vaughn at 85 or later.
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
NFL Upsets! What Upsets?
Pick up most sports pages and you would definitely think that this year was the “year of the upsets” in the NFL. However, if you followed the Performance Rankings or RPM of PossessionPoints.com, you would have seen a completely opposite view. Why the big difference?
First of all, the Performance Rankings of PossessionPoints.com are based solely on our proprietary in-game statistic which on a game-for-game basis indicates winners at a very good rate. No opinion or personal viewpoints go into these rankings.
By season end, there are enough games played that the average Performance Rankings are a great indicator of teams that can win in the playoffs. Thus, our company mantra: if you have a good PossessionPoints team, you have a good team!
So, we are not the least bit surprised that in our week 17 rankings, the No. 1, No. 3and No. 4 teams are among the four teams still alive. If anybody knows of a traditional “opinion-based” Power Ranking that can say that, please let us know.
We said at the beginning of this article that there have been no upsets, and we guess if you just go by our ranking chart, we could force ourselves to find possibly one. The No. 16 Cardinals beat the No. 13 Falcons in the first week of the playoffs. That outcome could have been seen as an upset as that was the only time that a lower RPM team beat a higher RPM. However, if you look at an RPM of 12.66 vs. an RPM of 9.57, the upset is minimal at best. (See chart below)
As for the rest of the games, we saw nothing earth shattering at all: the No. 1 Eagles beat the No. 5 Vikings and the No. 2 Giants. The No. 3 Ravens beat the No. 12 Dolphins and the No. 10 Titans. The No. 16 Cardinals followed up their “upset” victory over the Falcons with a win over the No. 18 Panthers. The No. 7 Chargers beat the No. 20 Colts, but then they lost to the No. 4 Steelers.
So, other than a mild upset by the Cardinals, we think the playoffs have been pretty true to form.
Below is a reprint of the PossessionPoints.com regular season-ending Performance Rankings. We took a lot of heat having a team that just squeaked into the playoffs at No. 1 and another No. 6 seed wild card team at No. 3, but guess what? We are smiling a bit now.
The current rankings on our site include the two rounds of playoffs, the Eagles remain No. 1, but the Giants dropped to No. 4 with the Ravens and Steelers at Nos. 2 and 3, respectively. They are less than a single RPM point apart; however, by our measure that game is a real toss-up. The Cardinals have had a post season RPM over 30and have moved up to No. 14 from their season ending No. 16.
If the Cardinals have another +30 or better PossessionPoints performance they could earn the first “real” upset of the postseason.
First of all, the Performance Rankings of PossessionPoints.com are based solely on our proprietary in-game statistic which on a game-for-game basis indicates winners at a very good rate. No opinion or personal viewpoints go into these rankings.
By season end, there are enough games played that the average Performance Rankings are a great indicator of teams that can win in the playoffs. Thus, our company mantra: if you have a good PossessionPoints team, you have a good team!
So, we are not the least bit surprised that in our week 17 rankings, the No. 1, No. 3and No. 4 teams are among the four teams still alive. If anybody knows of a traditional “opinion-based” Power Ranking that can say that, please let us know.
We said at the beginning of this article that there have been no upsets, and we guess if you just go by our ranking chart, we could force ourselves to find possibly one. The No. 16 Cardinals beat the No. 13 Falcons in the first week of the playoffs. That outcome could have been seen as an upset as that was the only time that a lower RPM team beat a higher RPM. However, if you look at an RPM of 12.66 vs. an RPM of 9.57, the upset is minimal at best. (See chart below)
As for the rest of the games, we saw nothing earth shattering at all: the No. 1 Eagles beat the No. 5 Vikings and the No. 2 Giants. The No. 3 Ravens beat the No. 12 Dolphins and the No. 10 Titans. The No. 16 Cardinals followed up their “upset” victory over the Falcons with a win over the No. 18 Panthers. The No. 7 Chargers beat the No. 20 Colts, but then they lost to the No. 4 Steelers.
So, other than a mild upset by the Cardinals, we think the playoffs have been pretty true to form.
Below is a reprint of the PossessionPoints.com regular season-ending Performance Rankings. We took a lot of heat having a team that just squeaked into the playoffs at No. 1 and another No. 6 seed wild card team at No. 3, but guess what? We are smiling a bit now.
The current rankings on our site include the two rounds of playoffs, the Eagles remain No. 1, but the Giants dropped to No. 4 with the Ravens and Steelers at Nos. 2 and 3, respectively. They are less than a single RPM point apart; however, by our measure that game is a real toss-up. The Cardinals have had a post season RPM over 30and have moved up to No. 14 from their season ending No. 16.
If the Cardinals have another +30 or better PossessionPoints performance they could earn the first “real” upset of the postseason.
Wednesday, December 31, 2008
NFL Copycats: Is Smash Mouth Next?
There is no doubt that the four NFL teams with playoff byes have had much success on the ground which makes PossessionPoints.com
wonder if “Smash Mouth” tactics are going to spread around the league like the Wildcat formation did this season. For anyone who does not know, a Smash Mouth offense is a traditional offense where Tight Ends and Receivers are used as blockers. This tactic leaves open the possibility for some passing as the defense gets pulled to the line to stop the run. Smash Mouth is also known as “three yards and cloud of dust football” or Woody Hayes and Vince Lombardi-style football.
A year ago we thought that rushing football was on its way to being an afterthought with the success of teams like the Patriots and Colts who exploited their passing offense with Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. Teams such as the Saints and Texans tried to emulate the success of the Colts and Patriots by building a high-power offense making running and defense a lesser priority. Last year, defensive-dominated teams such as the Ravens and Bears also seemed to have an “off” year.
However, this year, many teams have switched back to running / defense-dominated philosophies. The Giants have two, 1,000-yard Rushing Backs in Brandon Jacobs (1089 yds) and Derrick Ward (1025 yards). They also have #7 overall defense. The Panthers have two quality Running Backs in DeAngelo Williams (1515 yards) and rookie Jonathan Stewart (836 yards). In the AFC, the Titans feature the duo of LenDale White (773 yards) and rookie Chris Johnson (1228 yards). The Steelers have long been thought of as a run first team. This reputation dates way back to the days of Chuck Noll, known as “Ground Chuck” who built his team on the running game. Unfortunately, this year the Steelers had a tough time keeping their Backs healthy which resulted in lower rushing numbers for their top Backs, Willie Parker (791 yards) and Mewelde Moore (588 yards). It is interesting to note that the teams who used their run to set up their pass game this season, all have first round playoff byes.
Will this be the next theme that is copied around the NFL? Is the firing of the 49ers’ Mike Martz, who in his time with the Rams was known as the “The Father of the Greatest Show on Turf”, a sign of things to come? Martz was known for his complicated passing tactics, but when the defense-oriented Mike Singletary came on as 49ers head coach, the styling of Martz became an albatross around the 49ers neck. Is this why Bill Cowher, who followed the philosophy of Chuck Noll in Pittsburgh, is the hot commodity this week for teams seeking out new coaches?
For this season, the Colts, Eagles and Cardinals would appear to be the teams carrying the “high flying” reputations into the Playoffs. But the Colts have always had a quality back as a compliment to their pass, be it Edgerrin James in years past or Joseph Addai today. The Eagles are best when Brian Westbrook is healthy and can be both runner and receiver in what is usually a pass dominated offense. We expect these teams will continue their aerial assaults forward into 2009, but will their high flying attacks get more grounded?
Watching coaching changes is one way to see if philosophy around the league is shifting; watching the draft is another. Looking at the top prospects such as Chris (Beanie) Wells of Ohio State or Knowshan Moreno of University of Georgia might not give a hint as to coaches’ philosophy since these players would go early in the draft no matter what, but seeing where the next wave of Running Backs go in the draft is another story. Where will LeSean McCoy (Pitt) and Jevon Ringer (Michigan St.) go? Further evidence of a philosophy shift would be apparent if teams look to the sub division schools for Running Backs much like the Ravens did last year with Joe Flacco trying to get a QB. Will the stock of Rashad Jennings of Liberty University rise in the draft this year?
We ask a lot of questions at PossessionPoints.com because we are always searching and checking for stats that produce winners. Our flagship stat, the PossessionPoint, has time of possession as a key component, and time of possession helped dramatically the high flying Patriots in 2007 becoming the top team. However, Defense plays an important role in our Performance Measure which explains why the Eagles, Giants, Steelers, Ravens and Vikings were our top 5 in 2008. In fact, what we like best about our PossessionPoints stat, is that it does not favor an pass offensive strategy or defense-oriented strategy. Instead, it measures execution and success.
The 2009 season will be an education for all fans. We might watch teams known for their offensive skills suddenly face the challenges of making defense their number one priority. Look at the Houston Texans who this week fired their Defensive Coordinator and two other members of the defensive coaching staff. There is a change in the wind and that change may be on the ground and not in the air.
wonder if “Smash Mouth” tactics are going to spread around the league like the Wildcat formation did this season. For anyone who does not know, a Smash Mouth offense is a traditional offense where Tight Ends and Receivers are used as blockers. This tactic leaves open the possibility for some passing as the defense gets pulled to the line to stop the run. Smash Mouth is also known as “three yards and cloud of dust football” or Woody Hayes and Vince Lombardi-style football.
A year ago we thought that rushing football was on its way to being an afterthought with the success of teams like the Patriots and Colts who exploited their passing offense with Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. Teams such as the Saints and Texans tried to emulate the success of the Colts and Patriots by building a high-power offense making running and defense a lesser priority. Last year, defensive-dominated teams such as the Ravens and Bears also seemed to have an “off” year.
However, this year, many teams have switched back to running / defense-dominated philosophies. The Giants have two, 1,000-yard Rushing Backs in Brandon Jacobs (1089 yds) and Derrick Ward (1025 yards). They also have #7 overall defense. The Panthers have two quality Running Backs in DeAngelo Williams (1515 yards) and rookie Jonathan Stewart (836 yards). In the AFC, the Titans feature the duo of LenDale White (773 yards) and rookie Chris Johnson (1228 yards). The Steelers have long been thought of as a run first team. This reputation dates way back to the days of Chuck Noll, known as “Ground Chuck” who built his team on the running game. Unfortunately, this year the Steelers had a tough time keeping their Backs healthy which resulted in lower rushing numbers for their top Backs, Willie Parker (791 yards) and Mewelde Moore (588 yards). It is interesting to note that the teams who used their run to set up their pass game this season, all have first round playoff byes.
Will this be the next theme that is copied around the NFL? Is the firing of the 49ers’ Mike Martz, who in his time with the Rams was known as the “The Father of the Greatest Show on Turf”, a sign of things to come? Martz was known for his complicated passing tactics, but when the defense-oriented Mike Singletary came on as 49ers head coach, the styling of Martz became an albatross around the 49ers neck. Is this why Bill Cowher, who followed the philosophy of Chuck Noll in Pittsburgh, is the hot commodity this week for teams seeking out new coaches?
For this season, the Colts, Eagles and Cardinals would appear to be the teams carrying the “high flying” reputations into the Playoffs. But the Colts have always had a quality back as a compliment to their pass, be it Edgerrin James in years past or Joseph Addai today. The Eagles are best when Brian Westbrook is healthy and can be both runner and receiver in what is usually a pass dominated offense. We expect these teams will continue their aerial assaults forward into 2009, but will their high flying attacks get more grounded?
Watching coaching changes is one way to see if philosophy around the league is shifting; watching the draft is another. Looking at the top prospects such as Chris (Beanie) Wells of Ohio State or Knowshan Moreno of University of Georgia might not give a hint as to coaches’ philosophy since these players would go early in the draft no matter what, but seeing where the next wave of Running Backs go in the draft is another story. Where will LeSean McCoy (Pitt) and Jevon Ringer (Michigan St.) go? Further evidence of a philosophy shift would be apparent if teams look to the sub division schools for Running Backs much like the Ravens did last year with Joe Flacco trying to get a QB. Will the stock of Rashad Jennings of Liberty University rise in the draft this year?
We ask a lot of questions at PossessionPoints.com because we are always searching and checking for stats that produce winners. Our flagship stat, the PossessionPoint, has time of possession as a key component, and time of possession helped dramatically the high flying Patriots in 2007 becoming the top team. However, Defense plays an important role in our Performance Measure which explains why the Eagles, Giants, Steelers, Ravens and Vikings were our top 5 in 2008. In fact, what we like best about our PossessionPoints stat, is that it does not favor an pass offensive strategy or defense-oriented strategy. Instead, it measures execution and success.
The 2009 season will be an education for all fans. We might watch teams known for their offensive skills suddenly face the challenges of making defense their number one priority. Look at the Houston Texans who this week fired their Defensive Coordinator and two other members of the defensive coaching staff. There is a change in the wind and that change may be on the ground and not in the air.
Thursday, December 18, 2008
Saints: Number One Offense – So What!
If you watch the Saints vs. Lions game, no doubt you will hear these words that have been spoken all year: the Saints have the number one Offense in the NFL. Well, this is true if you measure Offensive effectiveness in the traditional way as total yards or points per game. If the Saints are the number one Offense in the League, then it is no surprise that Drew Brees is also ranked the top passer in terms of yards. Well, the Saints may be ranked number one, and their QB may have the admiration of every sports announcer in the world, but guess what? It does not matter because the Saints also have a 7-7 record which means they don’t get to go to any playoff games unless they go as spectators. How can this be?
Well, let’s examine the yards and points stats. This traditional analysis can easily be skewed by game situations. If you look at the Saints’ games this season, on the surface it seems as if the Saints lost a lot of close games. However, let’s look at some of their losses:
In Week 3: New Orleans fell behind 21-3. The Saints rebounded but finally lost 34-32 to the Broncos. Brees threw for 421 yards.
In Week 5: The Saints were down 20-10 in their game against the Vikings. They managed to stage a comeback and take the lead, but relinquished it again and lost 30-27. Brees had 330 yards passing.
In Week 7: The Saints lost 30-7 to the Panthers, and Brees still had 231 yards.
In Week 10: The Saints were down 27-6 at one point in their game against the Falcons. At the end, the Saints lost to the Falcons by a score of 34-20. In this game, there were two, late "so what" drives of 80 and 69 yards which made the game seem closer than it was. These “so what” points helped to pad Brees’ stats as well. He threw for a total of 422 yards.
In Week 13: The Saints were down 20-10 to the Bucs in the 4th quarter. Then, another late game rally allowed them to tie the game. Again, that rally was short lived, and the Saints could not hold on. They ended up losing by a score of 23-20. Brees still threw for 296 yards.
In Week 15: The Saints were down 21-7 to the Bears. Again, they took the lead but lost in OT by a score of 27-24. Brees had 232 yards.
Brees and the Saints piled up the yards this season even though they lost seven games. It might be safe to say that some of the yards the Saints posted were not due to a stellar Offense but rather due to their opponents’ Defense who may have relaxed a bit after securing large leads. The Saints are no different than any other team in that moving the ball or getting in the end zone may not be as difficult a task when they are on the losing end of a lopsided score. Games like week 3 and 10 illustrate this fact. The Saints were losing by large margins in both of these games, but Brees’ combined passing yardage in these games totaled 843 yards. His total passing yardage for this season so far is 4332.
Should we assume that New Orleans’ Defense should bear the blame for the Saints not making the playoffs? Well, their Defense is 20th in yards and 25th in scoring. The Defense must be the reason why New Orleans is left out of postseason play. Who could win with such a lackluster Defense, right?
Well, before we condemn the Defense, let’s go back to 2006 and look at the last time the Saints led the NFL in Offense. In that year, the Colts were third in Offense and their Defense ranked 21st in yards and 23rd in scoring. The Colts went 12-4 and won the Super Bowl. It seems winning with those kinds of Defensive stats is possible. By the way, that year the Saints’ Defense was ranked 11th and they went 10-6 and got to the NFC championship.
The difference between the Saints of 2008 and Colts of 2006 may boil down to this: the Colts’ Defense did not have impressive numbers because the Colts frequently had big leads which at times they surrendered thus allowing their opposition to pile up the stats. The Saints of 2008 have had some big games, but they have also had games in which they fell way behind forcing them into a rapid catch-up mode. In some of these games, the Saints actually did manage to crawl back into the game only to give up the ground they gained to lose.
So, we wonder: what is the advantage of being the number one team in yards and points if that team cannot win? As Herm Edwards said when he was Head Coach of the Jets “You play to win the game.” Stats without winning seem shallow. That is why PossessionPoints.com is always seeking significance in statistics. We constantly work on correlating stats to winning, and if we can’t correlate the stat to winning, we tend to not think that much of the stat.
Well, let’s examine the yards and points stats. This traditional analysis can easily be skewed by game situations. If you look at the Saints’ games this season, on the surface it seems as if the Saints lost a lot of close games. However, let’s look at some of their losses:
In Week 3: New Orleans fell behind 21-3. The Saints rebounded but finally lost 34-32 to the Broncos. Brees threw for 421 yards.
In Week 5: The Saints were down 20-10 in their game against the Vikings. They managed to stage a comeback and take the lead, but relinquished it again and lost 30-27. Brees had 330 yards passing.
In Week 7: The Saints lost 30-7 to the Panthers, and Brees still had 231 yards.
In Week 10: The Saints were down 27-6 at one point in their game against the Falcons. At the end, the Saints lost to the Falcons by a score of 34-20. In this game, there were two, late "so what" drives of 80 and 69 yards which made the game seem closer than it was. These “so what” points helped to pad Brees’ stats as well. He threw for a total of 422 yards.
In Week 13: The Saints were down 20-10 to the Bucs in the 4th quarter. Then, another late game rally allowed them to tie the game. Again, that rally was short lived, and the Saints could not hold on. They ended up losing by a score of 23-20. Brees still threw for 296 yards.
In Week 15: The Saints were down 21-7 to the Bears. Again, they took the lead but lost in OT by a score of 27-24. Brees had 232 yards.
Brees and the Saints piled up the yards this season even though they lost seven games. It might be safe to say that some of the yards the Saints posted were not due to a stellar Offense but rather due to their opponents’ Defense who may have relaxed a bit after securing large leads. The Saints are no different than any other team in that moving the ball or getting in the end zone may not be as difficult a task when they are on the losing end of a lopsided score. Games like week 3 and 10 illustrate this fact. The Saints were losing by large margins in both of these games, but Brees’ combined passing yardage in these games totaled 843 yards. His total passing yardage for this season so far is 4332.
Should we assume that New Orleans’ Defense should bear the blame for the Saints not making the playoffs? Well, their Defense is 20th in yards and 25th in scoring. The Defense must be the reason why New Orleans is left out of postseason play. Who could win with such a lackluster Defense, right?
Well, before we condemn the Defense, let’s go back to 2006 and look at the last time the Saints led the NFL in Offense. In that year, the Colts were third in Offense and their Defense ranked 21st in yards and 23rd in scoring. The Colts went 12-4 and won the Super Bowl. It seems winning with those kinds of Defensive stats is possible. By the way, that year the Saints’ Defense was ranked 11th and they went 10-6 and got to the NFC championship.
The difference between the Saints of 2008 and Colts of 2006 may boil down to this: the Colts’ Defense did not have impressive numbers because the Colts frequently had big leads which at times they surrendered thus allowing their opposition to pile up the stats. The Saints of 2008 have had some big games, but they have also had games in which they fell way behind forcing them into a rapid catch-up mode. In some of these games, the Saints actually did manage to crawl back into the game only to give up the ground they gained to lose.
So, we wonder: what is the advantage of being the number one team in yards and points if that team cannot win? As Herm Edwards said when he was Head Coach of the Jets “You play to win the game.” Stats without winning seem shallow. That is why PossessionPoints.com is always seeking significance in statistics. We constantly work on correlating stats to winning, and if we can’t correlate the stat to winning, we tend to not think that much of the stat.
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
NFL Big Games for Week 16
We are winding down and heading into the final two weeks of the regular NFL season. For some teams, this is their do-or-die week. This is also the week in both Conferences where home field advantage will most likely be determined by this week’s results. We are going to talk about these two games first.
In the NFC, the 11-3 Panthers travel to the Meadowlands and take on the 11-3 Giants. While both of these teams are certainly going to the playoffs, the Giants would like to do things a bit differently than they did last year and actually play their playoff games at home. The Panthers and the Giants both feature strong running attacks, so this should be a classic, old-school football game.
While the Panthers are building momentum, the Giants seem to be losing it as they have lost their last two games. New York definitely needs to turn on the heat if they want to experience the same euphoria in the playoffs that they felt last year.
In the AFC, the 11-3 Steelers travel to the 12-2 Titans. The Titans have had some serious injuries on their defensive line, and much like the Giants, Tennessee needs to bring back the passion they had in the earlier games of the season to carry them through the playoffs, and that might mean playing all the stars even though a playoff spot is secure.
Another big game is the 9-5 Ravens traveling to the 9-5 Cowboys. This inter-conference matchup may well mean that the loser does not make the playoffs. In the preseason, few expected the Ravens to get this far, but many considered the Cowboys to be a favorite for postseason play. However, the way the Ravens have played this year, hopes are high in Baltimore and beyond. Dallas has managed to sidestep their personal team turmoil to win last week and keep them alive, and they have to continue to pull together if they are going to go far in the playoffs or even make the playoffs.
The final two games we want to highlight are two of the games that have significance in the NFC wildcard race. The 9-5 Falcons travel to take on the NFC North-leading 9-5 Vikings. The Vikings could lose and still make the playoffs, but if the Falcons lose, they open the door for the Eagles to take their place in the playoffs.
The last game we want to talk about is the Eagles vs. the 7-7 Redskins in Washington. The Redskins have no chance to make the playoffs, but if they beat the Eagles, they will certainly put a damper or a soaking on the Philadelphia playoff bid.
Don’t be surprised to see non-playoff contenders happily play the role of spoiler to teams trying to get a spot in postseason play. Every year, a team with a good chance at the playoffs seems to lose their shot because of a spoiler team who wants to go out with a bang.
In the NFC, the 11-3 Panthers travel to the Meadowlands and take on the 11-3 Giants. While both of these teams are certainly going to the playoffs, the Giants would like to do things a bit differently than they did last year and actually play their playoff games at home. The Panthers and the Giants both feature strong running attacks, so this should be a classic, old-school football game.
While the Panthers are building momentum, the Giants seem to be losing it as they have lost their last two games. New York definitely needs to turn on the heat if they want to experience the same euphoria in the playoffs that they felt last year.
In the AFC, the 11-3 Steelers travel to the 12-2 Titans. The Titans have had some serious injuries on their defensive line, and much like the Giants, Tennessee needs to bring back the passion they had in the earlier games of the season to carry them through the playoffs, and that might mean playing all the stars even though a playoff spot is secure.
Another big game is the 9-5 Ravens traveling to the 9-5 Cowboys. This inter-conference matchup may well mean that the loser does not make the playoffs. In the preseason, few expected the Ravens to get this far, but many considered the Cowboys to be a favorite for postseason play. However, the way the Ravens have played this year, hopes are high in Baltimore and beyond. Dallas has managed to sidestep their personal team turmoil to win last week and keep them alive, and they have to continue to pull together if they are going to go far in the playoffs or even make the playoffs.
The final two games we want to highlight are two of the games that have significance in the NFC wildcard race. The 9-5 Falcons travel to take on the NFC North-leading 9-5 Vikings. The Vikings could lose and still make the playoffs, but if the Falcons lose, they open the door for the Eagles to take their place in the playoffs.
The last game we want to talk about is the Eagles vs. the 7-7 Redskins in Washington. The Redskins have no chance to make the playoffs, but if they beat the Eagles, they will certainly put a damper or a soaking on the Philadelphia playoff bid.
Don’t be surprised to see non-playoff contenders happily play the role of spoiler to teams trying to get a spot in postseason play. Every year, a team with a good chance at the playoffs seems to lose their shot because of a spoiler team who wants to go out with a bang.
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