NFL Performance Rankings Week 15

Last week, we noted the obvious fact that the “Performance Rankings” of PossessionPoints.com are far different from the traditional opinion-based Power Rankings that you read about in many other places. For proof of this, you need to look no further than the number 1 spot on our Rankings, which is held by the Philadelphia Eagles for the second week in a row. How can this be when the Eagles have an uphill fight just to make the playoffs? Well, we would like to take a little time this week to explain how the Eagles can occupy this coveted spot.

At PossessionPoints.com, we color code a team’s Offensive, Defensive and Net performances (the difference between the Offensive and Defensive performances). We use Green to denote “good” performances; Yellow to symbolize “average” performances; and Red to signal “poor” performances. The colors change at specific values, and we correlate a winning percentage to each of these values. For instance a “Green” Offensive performance wins about 75% of the time (this is based on the data we have kept over the past 3 seasons.) A “Green” Defensive Performance wins over 85% of the time while a “Green” Net wins over 90% of the time. Our Performance Rankings (Relative Performance Measure – RPM) are based on the Net measure which as we say correlates over 90% of the time to winning in individual games.

So, how did a team that has only won 57% of their games wind up with an average Net that is Green? Looking at Philadelphia’s individual games is the easiest way to explain this. In their losses, the Eagles’ Offense and Defense took turns causing them to lose. The Eagles had three ‘Red’ Defensive performances which resulted in losses for all three of these games. A typical team will win 25% of the Red performances. The Eagles also had two Red Offensive performances and lost one of these games and tied one of these games. A typical team will win 15% of these Red Offensive performances. What is unique about the Eagles is that none of their poor Offensive and Defensive performances occurred in the same games. Compare this to the Giants who have had six Red Defensive performances and lost only three of these games. In the games they won, their Offense picked up the slack. In the three games the Giants lost, they recorded their only three Red Offensive performances of the year.

So, most “good” teams will on occasion have a bad game on both sides of the ball and lose those games. The Eagles have not shared that pattern. Their “bad” performances on Offense and Defense have occurred in different games causing them to pile up the losses. When they had a Red Offensive performance, their Defense was Green in the game they tied and Yellow in the game they lost. Statistically, both a Green and Yellow Defensive performance should have been able to overcome the Red Offense. The Eagles failed to do that.

In their three Red Defensive Performance games, the Eagles had two Green Offensive performances and one Yellow Offensive performance. Again, they lost all three of these games which other teams would have turned into wins.

We have spent a lot of time explaining the Eagles this week, so we will just quickly summarize the other top five teams on our Performance Chart: The Vikings, Ravens, Steelers and Giants round out the top 5.



On to the bottom 5. It is no surprise to find Cincinnati in our bottom 5 at number 30 since by our RPM measure they have had the toughest schedule in the league. Next week, we are going to talk about how each team’s strength of schedule has affected their performances this season.
The other 4 teams in our bottom 5 are the Rams, Lions, Seahawks and Raiders. These teams’ schedules have been no picnic either.

A final note, if the Eagles do manage to make the playoffs, the other teams in the NFL better take them seriously because they do have the capability to beat any team in the NFL if all their units show up to play.

The 4th Down Gamble – Think Twice

Pure statistics say that a team’s success rate to convert a 4th down to a 1st down or a score is about 50% when that 4th down is for short yardage. However, NFL teams “go for it” only about 20% of the time. A few coaches such as Bill Belichick and Jack Del Rio have developed a “reputation” as mavericks who toss caution to the wind and take the chance on 4th down more often than their coaching colleagues. While these coaches may opt to keep their punting teams off the field more frequently, their decision to go on 4th down is still below 50 percent. Why?

Well, PossessionPoints.com loves stats, and in fact, our business was built on the premise that our in-game stat can help a coach evaluate when it is a good time to take that 50-50 risk. But we are not in the same camp as some of the other stat analysts who think coaches should be going for it on 4th down more often. Stats can help determine when it is a good time to take a chance, but stats do not capture the major emotional factor in football that occurs when two teams are on the line trying to prevent or achieve that all important and possibly game-turning 1st down play.

When a team “goes for it” on 4th down, play-by-play announcers usually offer comments such as “The coach is showing great confidence in his Offense keeping them out there to pick up those one or two yards.” That may be a true analysis, but anyone who has ever played a competitive sport knows that it is the Defense who makes or breaks these momentous plays. When a coach keeps the Offense out on the field, he is sending a clear message to the opposing Defense that says, “We do not respect your ability to stop us.” Some Defenses may take this stance as a challenge; others see it as an insult. Either way, a Defense is going to be fired up with adrenaline pumping, and they will do whatever it takes to stop a 4th down conversion especially if that conversion will result in a touchdown.

Let us examine some recent games where a 4th down conversion came into play. In this season’s Minnesota – Chicago game in week 13, the Bears held a 7-3 lead in the first half and were down on the Minnesota goal line. The Bears had 3rd and goal at the one-yard line but were unsuccessful at getting in the end zone. On 4th and 1, Coach Lovie Smith had two options at his disposal. He could have kicked a field goal (a distance shorter than an extra point where the success rate this year has exceeded 99%) to take a 7 point lead or go for the touchdown and an 11 point lead. A logical person might have argued “What is the worst scenario that could happen in this situation?” The answer: the Bears fail in their attempt to score the touchdown, and the Vikings get the ball in the worst possible field position for them at their own one-yard line. Well, Smith chose to forego the three almost certain points and opt for a touchdown play. Unfortunately, for Chicago, the Vikings’ pride did not share his enthusiasm for a touchdown. Instead, they showed off some of their own talent and stopped the Bears in their tracks.

Okay, how bad could this be? The Bears surmised they would return the Defensive favor and possibly force the Vikings into a Safety and take the two points. After all, that is almost a field goal – right?
With this somewhat dire situation facing the Vikings’ Offense, most coaches might have decided to put in their short yardage Offense and try to move the ball off the goal line into calmer waters. However, the Vikings decided to let their Offense feed off the adrenaline rush of their Defense and instead called for a deep sideline pass. The Receiver managed to get behind the Defender, and lo and behold caught the Quarterback’s pass and sprinted for a 99-yard touchdown. Suddenly, in two plays, the game went from what could have been a certain Bears 10-3 lead to a Vikings 10-7 lead. The Vikings never looked back and went on to trounce the Bears 34-14.

This same week, the Jags found themselves behind in a game and their prospects looked bleak. Jacksonville tried not once, but twice on the same drive, to convert a 4th down. It was early in the 4th quarter, and the Jags were down 16-3, so the time seemed right to gamble. The Jags pushed their luck and succeeded in their first attempt which was at the Texans’ 33-yard line, a plausible field goal distance. They gave up three points, but they had a chance to move the ball further toward a seven-point score. However, that 1st down victory was short lived at best. Within seconds, the Jags found themselves in the same 50-50, 4th down scenario on the Texans’ five-yard line. Now, here the Jags have a situation where you have thrown down the gauntlet to your opponents and came out the victor once. When they threw down that gauntlet a second time, The Texans’ pride charged forward, and this emotional surge paid off. Jacksonville failed to convert the second 4th down again which was at a field position that was a virtual certainty for a field goal. Would a field goal have changed the fate of the Jaguars? Who knows? But a field goal might have taken the wind out of the sails of the Texans and made this game closer.

Next time you are watching a game and you want a coach to just “Go For It” and forego his “over conservative” approach, think of these two situations. PossessionPoints.com absolutely concurs that sometimes a coach does “need to” go for it on 4th down. The original PossessionPoints stat was founded as a tool to help coaches make that 4th and short decision. It came into existence because of a late game 4th down punt decision where the team that punted (the Eagles in the 2006 playoff game against the Saints) never got the ball back and lost the game. That was a “need to” situation. In general, we would say taking the risk on 4th down should be more along the lines of the traditional approach have long practiced: take the chance only when absolutely necessary.

NFL Big Games Week 15

There are several big games this week, and hopefully, they will be good games to watch. The first one that PossessionPoints.com wants to highlight is a battle for the AFC North. The 10-3 Steelers are taking on the 9-4 Ravens. While neither of these teams is likely to miss the playoffs, the winner of this game would be in prime position to win the Division and perhaps earn a first-round bye.

The next game on the highlight list is the game between the top two teams in the NFC East. The 11-2 Giants, who have already locked up the Division, will travel to Dallas to take on the 8-5 Cowboys. Obviously, the Cowboys need this game more than the Giants. The Giants are all but certain to have a first-round bye while the Cowboys are not even guaranteed a playoff spot yet. To make matters more dire for the Cowboys, the 7-5-1 are very close on their heels at only a half-game behind. Another team wanting that last wildcard spot are the 8-5 Falcons.

This brings us to our third big game which features the Falcons who are hosting their Division rivals, the 9-4 Bucs. The Bucs are fresh off a Monday night loss to the Carolina Panthers which puts them one game behind the Panthers for the Division but still one game ahead of everyone else in the Conference for a wildcard spot. The Bucs do not want to lose this cushion.

The final big game for this week features two teams battling to keep their somewhat slim playoff chances alive. The 7-6 Bears are hosting the 7-6 Saints. The loser of this game can begin thinking about their draft strategy and can forget about their playoff strategy. The winner of this game still needs a great deal of help to make the playoffs, but their hopes will most likely still be alive after this week is over.

It is becoming crunch time and the NFL excitement is growing. We hope you all enjoy this week’s games!

NFL Performance Rankings Week 14

One glance at our Chart and you will know that our rankings are much different than the traditional Power Rankings. Why is this? Unlike other Charts, our Chart contains no opinion or subjective criteria. Our Performance Rankings are based solely on our PossessionPoints.com in-game statistic.

Number One on our list are the Philadelphia Eagles. Yes, we see your jaw dropping and we feel your disbelief. Trust us, if there were any subjectivity in our Chart, the Eagles would not be sitting at Number One. However, with that said, we have to give the Eagles their due. They have performed in their games well enough to win more than their record would indicate. As proof of the fact that they are good enough to beat anyone in the NFL, the Eagles beat the team last week that was Number One in our Chart and most Performance Charts. They beat the New York Giants in New York. While the score may have appeared close, the Eagles actually dominated the Giants on both side of the ball. The Eagles still have an uphill battle to get into the playoffs, but if they are able to get there, they could be a tough team to beat.

A quick run through of the top five behind the Eagles: The Giants who slipped to Number Two; the Ravens at Number Three; the Vikings at Number Four; and the Steelers at Number Five.



It is worthy to note as well that the Titans have moved a bit up the Chart from Number Eight last week to Number Six this week. Although the Titans have a 12-1 record, they have not been able to amass the PossessionPoints needed to catapult them into the Top Five, but they are close.

Jumping down to the bottom Five are teams that have held onto these positions for a while and are all mathematically eliminated from playoff spots. At Number 28 in our Chart are the 3-10 Raiders; at 29 are the 0-13 Lions who have flirted with the possibility of getting their first win in the past few weeks; at Number 30 are the 2-11 Seahawks; at 31 are the 1-11-1 Bengals and at 32 are the 2-11 Rams.

NFL Big Games for Week 14

This week there are three games PossessionPoints.com wishes to highlight. The biggest game in our viewpoint is the Monday night game between the Bucs and Panthers. While it looks as if both of these teams will make the playoffs, this game could well decide who wins the NFC South Division as both of these teams are now tied with a record of 9-3. The winner of this Division will also most likely get a first round bye, and the loser most likely a wildcard spot

The second big game this week is between the Giants and the Eagles at the Meadowlands. This game is truly the Eagles’ last shot to get themselves back into playoff contention. We think the lights are all but out for Philadelphia this season, but a loss here could mathematically eliminate them. The Giants have little to gain with a win this week as they have a virtual lock on the Division and a first round bye. So, obviously this game is more important for the Eagles.

The third big game is an interconference game between the Cowboys and Steelers as both these teams have winning records and are in tight races for playoff spots. The Cowboys want to maintain or enhance their chances of obtaining a wildcard spot while the Steelers look to hold on to their narrow one-game lead over the Ravens.

These are three strong contests this week with playoff implications for all involved. We will see which teams rise to the occasion and which teams fold like a bad poker hand.

NFL Performance Rankings Week 13

Three quarters of the season is done and the best teams are truly starting to show themselves in the top of the Performance Rankings. We feel confident that eight of the Top Ten teams in the PossessionPoints.com Performance Rankings will make the playoffs. There is still plenty of time for the two teams, who we think will not make the playoffs, to fall out of our Top Ten. We will talk about these two teams later.

The number one RPM team is the same team that has held the top spot for the last few weeks. Despite their off field troubles, the New York Giants have kept their spot because they had little trouble controlling their game against their Division rivals, the Redskins.

The Jets hold the same number two position as last week even though they appeared to be drunk on their own success in their loss to the Broncos. The Steelers and Ravens of the AFC North come in at numbers three and four this week. We think both of these teams will make the playoffs with one winning the Division and one most likely getting a wildcard berth.

At number five is one of our Top Ten teams that we do not think will make the playoffs. The Philadelphia Eagles have once again proved that they are one of the most underperforming teams in the NFL. This week, they dismantled the playoff-bound Cardinals and proved that they have the ability to beat anyone if they show up to play. It is almost inconceivable that in six of their games this season, Philadelphia played down to their competition and either lost or tied. Even if the Eagles beat the number one ranked Giants this week, we do not think it will help their chances of making the playoffs which are slim at best. The other playoff-bound teams in the Top Ten include the Vikings, Titans, Cardinals and Bucs. The other team in the Top Ten that we do not expect to make the playoffs is the Packers. Coming off of last year’s NFC Championship game, the Packers have turned out to be much like the Eagles levying disappointment upon their fans.



In the bottom five are teams who have absolutely no shot in making the playoffs especially since they only have eight victories between them this season. At the 28th spot are the 3-9 Raiders. Coming in at 29 are the 0-12 Lions. The Seahawks hold on to the number 30 spot with a record of 2-10. The Rams, also with a 2-10 record, take the 31 spot while the Bengals come in at the very bottom with a 1-10 record. We would like to point out that only 3 PossessionPoints separate the number 29 team from the number 32 teams. In other words, the bottom five are all pitiful. The Lions have a -57 RPM while the Bengals have a -60.

Once again, we stress that the PossessionPoints Performance Rankings are based on our in-game mathematical stat, and no subjective or emotional criteria are factored into our standings. This is the reason why non playoff-bound teams are in our Top Ten. Our rankings easily recognize and point out the biggest underperformers in the League

Big Games For Week 13

Thanksgiving Day is traditionally a day of football, but this year’s games are mostly turkeys. Certainly the early games, the Titans vs. Lions and Seahawks vs Cowboys have no playoff implications unless by some miracle the Seahawks (a 12.5-point underdog) beat the Cowboys.

PossessionPoints.com recognizes that there is a fine line between the best and worst in the NFL. On any given day, one of the worst teams could well win, and by PossessionPoints Performance Rankings both the Seahawks and Lions are among the bottom five teams. So, it would not be out of reach for one of these teams to stage the upset of the day.

The first game that counts this week is the Giants vs. Redskins. The Redskins need this game more than the Giants as the Redskins are three games behind the Giants. Washington is presently tied with the Cowboys at 7-4, so a win is essential for them to stay as a prime contender for a wildcard spot.

Our second big game is the Bears vs. Vikings. This game is between the two teams tied atop the NFC North at 6-5. This Division will be won by either one of these teams or the Packers, and winning the Division is probably the only way into the playoffs.

The third big game is the Saints vs. Bucs. The Saints are 6-5 and Bucs are 8-3. The rest of the teams in this Division all have winning records as well. There very well might be a wildcard out of this Division, but the Saints cannot finish fourth and expect to make the playoffs with or without a wildcard.

Finally, the last big game is between the Steelers and Patriots. The Steelers find themselves one game up on the Ravens while the Patriots are one game behind the Jets. Both teams need this win to further their quest for a playoff berth.