This week, at PossessionPoints.com,, we have only one game to highlight. Thanksgiving’s game between the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers is the contest that holds the most significance for the playoff picture. Does anyone ever remember a Thanksgiving game in Detroit that held so much meaning? The Lions made this game even more significant with their loss to the New York Giants last week. As it stands now, we project the Lions will lose this game against the Packers and finish the season with a 9-7 record which might very well leave them out of the playoffs.
If by chance, the Lions do win, it will raise their season record projection to 10-6 and put them right in the mix for a playoff spot. A win will still leave them well short of the Packers who we project to finish with a 14-2 record unless they lose this game, and in that case, they will finish with a 13-3 record. If you are a Lion fan, Packer fan or just interested in the whole playoff picture, we welcome your take on the Lions' possibilities. Send us a comment and tell us what you think.
Tuesday, November 20, 2007
Wednesday, November 14, 2007
PossessionPoints Week 10 NFL Performance Rankings
The top five Performance Rankings for Week 10 according to PossessionPoints.com are the Patriots, Steelers, Colts, Giants and Cowboys. The Packers come in at number six moving up significantly from the number 11 spot last week. In week 10, Green Bay’s performance lived up to their 8-1 record. Performance Rankings are based on in-game statistics that measure a team's offensive performance. These statistics take into account such elements as the scoring drive, the points scored and time of possession.
In the included chart, you will see each team, their win-loss record and the PossessionPoints measure of relative performance which is colored green, yellow or red. A green chart indicates a positive and strong team performance. A yellow chart indicates a mediocre to fair performance and a red chart tells the tale of trouble ahead.
These Performance Ratings are unique because they are based on in-game stats that are present in each game every week. Not present in these performance ratings are any opinion and or subjective measure of any type.
This week, The Titans fell down to number seven after their poor performance against the Jaguars. The Giants still managed to maintain a top-five spot in spite of their tough loss to the Cowboys.
Another team to view is the San Francisco 49ers who have sunk all the way down to the 31 slot after starting this season off with two wins. PossessionPoints did note at that time that San Francisco was the weakest of all the 2-0 teams, and they ranked 18th in spite of their unbeaten record. This is just further evidence that we measure performance that is essential to winning football games.
Last week’s games shook up some of our projected standings. For instance, with their win over the 49ers and their improved Relative Performance Measure (RPM), the Seahawks have gone from a projected 7-9 record to a projected 10-6 record. The Jaguars are another team who also improved their projected performance with their win over the Titans. Jacksonville moved up from a projected 7-9 record to a projected 11-5 record, and their rank jumped from 14th to 9th on our chart. Their RPM also climbed 12 points which is an impressive number for this time of year when already nine games have been played.
See our chart below with the projected final records of all the NFC and AFC teams.
In the included chart, you will see each team, their win-loss record and the PossessionPoints measure of relative performance which is colored green, yellow or red. A green chart indicates a positive and strong team performance. A yellow chart indicates a mediocre to fair performance and a red chart tells the tale of trouble ahead.
These Performance Ratings are unique because they are based on in-game stats that are present in each game every week. Not present in these performance ratings are any opinion and or subjective measure of any type.
This week, The Titans fell down to number seven after their poor performance against the Jaguars. The Giants still managed to maintain a top-five spot in spite of their tough loss to the Cowboys.
Another team to view is the San Francisco 49ers who have sunk all the way down to the 31 slot after starting this season off with two wins. PossessionPoints did note at that time that San Francisco was the weakest of all the 2-0 teams, and they ranked 18th in spite of their unbeaten record. This is just further evidence that we measure performance that is essential to winning football games.
Last week’s games shook up some of our projected standings. For instance, with their win over the 49ers and their improved Relative Performance Measure (RPM), the Seahawks have gone from a projected 7-9 record to a projected 10-6 record. The Jaguars are another team who also improved their projected performance with their win over the Titans. Jacksonville moved up from a projected 7-9 record to a projected 11-5 record, and their rank jumped from 14th to 9th on our chart. Their RPM also climbed 12 points which is an impressive number for this time of year when already nine games have been played.
See our chart below with the projected final records of all the NFC and AFC teams.
Tuesday, November 13, 2007
NFL Big Games For Week 11
Last week, PossessionPoints.com highlighted NFC games that were not only of importance to those teams playing but to other teams waiting in the wings. One of the games, the Cowboys vs. Giants, solidified the Cowboys top spot in the NFC East after their defeat over the Giants. Another contest that we highlighted was the game between the Vikings and Packers, and we emphasized how this outcome would affect the fate of the Lions as well. With the Packers’ victory and the Lions’ loss in their own game against the Cardinals, Detroit finds itself in a precarious situation when it comes to winning their division. That said, let’s look ahead to this week’s big games and what teams may find themselves on the hot seat.
We start with a game between two teams whose losses last week in big games has put them in a situation where a wild card playoff berth may be their only hope for postseason play. The game between the Giants and Lions this week could seriously hurt if not end one of these team’s playoff chances. The Giants must rebound from their physical and emotional loss to the Cowboys on their own home turf while the Lions have to overcome their crushing defeat at the hands of the Arizona Cardinals. Both of these teams have 6-3 records and should have been able to take the “W” last week. Alas, neither team was up to the task. A Giants’ win would give NY a 7-3 record and keep them on track for a projected 12-4 finish by the PossessionPoints stat. A Lions’ victory would obviously harm the Giants’ chances of being in the playoffs and would also improve Detroit’s projected PossessionPoints record to at least 10-6 which would put them squarely in the playoff hunt. In fact, the most likely scenario that would result in both of these teams getting a wild card spot would be a Lions’ victory. A Lions’ win would boost their projected record to at least 10-6 and lower the Giants’ projected record to 11-5. Given the Giants’ remaining schedule, they would still be in a good position to earn a wild card spot despite this loss to the Lions. Now, we are not advocating a loss for the Giants; we are just saying for both teams to have their best playoff hopes, the Lions need to win especially since Detroit has a tougher remaining schedule based upon PossessionPoints Relative Performance Measure.
Another worthy of a mention is the AFC matchup between the Jaguars and the Chargers. Coming off of an impressive win over the Colts, the Chargers have a one-game lead in the AFC west and a 5-4 record. The Jaguars are primed and ready to pounce on the Colts who have only a one-game lead over the 6-3 Jacksonville team. A win by the Jaguars would keep them in the AFC South race and position them relatively well for a wild card at least. A win for the Chargers would keep them in the lead in their division and allow them to have high hopes for the playoffs.
We also have to make sure that we mention the heavy weight battle between the Rams and the 49ers. (Yes, we are being facetious). On the bright side, the loser of this contest enters another race: the race with the Dolphins and Jets on who gets the top draft pick! There is a lesson in this game and that is every cloud and losing season has its silver lining. If anyone cares, PossessionPoints matchups have us picking the Rams.
We start with a game between two teams whose losses last week in big games has put them in a situation where a wild card playoff berth may be their only hope for postseason play. The game between the Giants and Lions this week could seriously hurt if not end one of these team’s playoff chances. The Giants must rebound from their physical and emotional loss to the Cowboys on their own home turf while the Lions have to overcome their crushing defeat at the hands of the Arizona Cardinals. Both of these teams have 6-3 records and should have been able to take the “W” last week. Alas, neither team was up to the task. A Giants’ win would give NY a 7-3 record and keep them on track for a projected 12-4 finish by the PossessionPoints stat. A Lions’ victory would obviously harm the Giants’ chances of being in the playoffs and would also improve Detroit’s projected PossessionPoints record to at least 10-6 which would put them squarely in the playoff hunt. In fact, the most likely scenario that would result in both of these teams getting a wild card spot would be a Lions’ victory. A Lions’ win would boost their projected record to at least 10-6 and lower the Giants’ projected record to 11-5. Given the Giants’ remaining schedule, they would still be in a good position to earn a wild card spot despite this loss to the Lions. Now, we are not advocating a loss for the Giants; we are just saying for both teams to have their best playoff hopes, the Lions need to win especially since Detroit has a tougher remaining schedule based upon PossessionPoints Relative Performance Measure.
Another worthy of a mention is the AFC matchup between the Jaguars and the Chargers. Coming off of an impressive win over the Colts, the Chargers have a one-game lead in the AFC west and a 5-4 record. The Jaguars are primed and ready to pounce on the Colts who have only a one-game lead over the 6-3 Jacksonville team. A win by the Jaguars would keep them in the AFC South race and position them relatively well for a wild card at least. A win for the Chargers would keep them in the lead in their division and allow them to have high hopes for the playoffs.
We also have to make sure that we mention the heavy weight battle between the Rams and the 49ers. (Yes, we are being facetious). On the bright side, the loser of this contest enters another race: the race with the Dolphins and Jets on who gets the top draft pick! There is a lesson in this game and that is every cloud and losing season has its silver lining. If anyone cares, PossessionPoints matchups have us picking the Rams.
Wednesday, November 7, 2007
PossessionPoints Week 9 NFL Performance Rankings
The top five Performance Rankings according to PossessionPoints.com are the Patriots, Steelers, Colts, Titans and Giants. These Performance Rankings are based on in-game statistics that measure the team’s offensive performance. These statistics take into account such elements as the scoring drive, the points scored and time of possession.
In the included chart, you will see each team, their win-loss record and the PossessionPoints measure of relative performance which is colored green, yellow or red. A green chart indicates a positive and strong team performance. A yellow chart indicates a mediocre to fair performance and a red chart tells the tale of trouble ahead.
These Performance Ratings are unique because they are based on in-game stats that are present in each game every week. Not present in these performance ratings are any opinion and or subjective measure of any type.
In this week’s rankings, the Giants and Titans flipped places. The Giants who play the Cowboys this week are just about one-tenth of a point ahead of the Cowboys in the PossessionPoints performance rankings. You may want to see our blog below for Big Games of Week 10.
Despite their stellar 7-1 record and positive relative performance measure, the Green Bay Packers still haven’t climbed into our top 10 of Performance Rankings. They come in 11th behind the Texans. Why? The Packers need to improve their offense and net performance to move up the PossessionPoints chart. Beware Packers fans, this data is signaling that the Packers’ performance is not as dominant as their record may indicate. However, don’t despair because the Packers’ schedule from here on out is not a difficult one. PossessionPoints still projects that the Packers will finish with a 12-4 record and become division champs with the third best record in the NFC.
As for the rest of the league, we do not see any losses for the Colts or the Patriots for the remainder of the season. Surprise! Surprise! We do see one more loss for the Steelers and Titans, and this solidifies these four teams as the elite of the AFC. It is interesting to note that these four teams are the last ones in the NFL to have a green RPM of over 40 according to the PossessionPoints stat.
We remind you that so far in 2007, when a team has had a green RPM in a game (PossessionPoints net effect), it has won 95 % of the time. To learn about the PossessionPoints net effect and the PossessionPoints offense and defense stat, go to PossessionPoints.com.
In the included chart, you will see each team, their win-loss record and the PossessionPoints measure of relative performance which is colored green, yellow or red. A green chart indicates a positive and strong team performance. A yellow chart indicates a mediocre to fair performance and a red chart tells the tale of trouble ahead.
These Performance Ratings are unique because they are based on in-game stats that are present in each game every week. Not present in these performance ratings are any opinion and or subjective measure of any type.
In this week’s rankings, the Giants and Titans flipped places. The Giants who play the Cowboys this week are just about one-tenth of a point ahead of the Cowboys in the PossessionPoints performance rankings. You may want to see our blog below for Big Games of Week 10.
Despite their stellar 7-1 record and positive relative performance measure, the Green Bay Packers still haven’t climbed into our top 10 of Performance Rankings. They come in 11th behind the Texans. Why? The Packers need to improve their offense and net performance to move up the PossessionPoints chart. Beware Packers fans, this data is signaling that the Packers’ performance is not as dominant as their record may indicate. However, don’t despair because the Packers’ schedule from here on out is not a difficult one. PossessionPoints still projects that the Packers will finish with a 12-4 record and become division champs with the third best record in the NFC.
As for the rest of the league, we do not see any losses for the Colts or the Patriots for the remainder of the season. Surprise! Surprise! We do see one more loss for the Steelers and Titans, and this solidifies these four teams as the elite of the AFC. It is interesting to note that these four teams are the last ones in the NFL to have a green RPM of over 40 according to the PossessionPoints stat.
We remind you that so far in 2007, when a team has had a green RPM in a game (PossessionPoints net effect), it has won 95 % of the time. To learn about the PossessionPoints net effect and the PossessionPoints offense and defense stat, go to PossessionPoints.com.
Tuesday, November 6, 2007
NFL Big Games For Week 10
Last week, PossessionPoints.com highlighted a couple of NFC matchups whose outcomes were of dire importance for those teams. We told you how the Bucs and Eagles needed to win games if they wanted to stay in the playoff hunt, and that PossessionPoints had them forecast to lose.. Well, the Bucs won – although it was not a pretty game, but the Eagles did not. Now, it would take almost a miracle finish for the Eagles to make the playoffs. Sure they should win a few more games, but the words “Eagles” and “playoffs” won't go together in 2007.
On to this week’s big games. There are three games we need to highlight this week. Two NFC contests and one AFC. In the AFC, our big game is the one between the Steelers and Browns. Who would have thought we would have been deeming a Browns’ game as an important game nine weeks ago? However, the Browns have showed tremendous Offense even though they have been weak on defense. Despite this weakness, they have a 5-3 record and a win against the Steelers would produce a tie atop the AFC North with both teams having a 6-3 record. PossessionPoints is forecasting a Steelers’ victory mostly because of the Browns’ weakness on defense. If the Browns do pull off a victory, this could set them up as a legitimate playoff contender in the AFC. Unlike the Eagles last week, they are not necessarily out of it with a loss, but if they play to form, PossessionPoints projects they would end the season with a record of 9-7. There could be several 9-7 teams vying for a playoff spot. A win against the Steelers would push the projection to at least 10-6, and the fans in Cleveland can start thinking the unthinkable: playoffs.
In the NFC, the big games are the Vikings - Packers and the Giants - Cowboys.We probably didn't have to tell you that the Giants - Cowboys was a big game. The winner here can be thinking about winning the NFC East and perhaps home field throughout the playoffs, especially if the winner is the Cowboys. The surprise here is the PossessionPoints forecast is pointing to a Giants’ win. In this contest, if the Cowboys lose, they are still very well positioned for the playoffs in the NFC so it is not be a do or die situation. A Giant victory, as with the AFC matchup we highlighted, would bring the Giants into a tie with the Cowboys at 7-2 as that game would be a split of the season series. However, the remaining games on the schedule favor the Cowboys as the Giants still have the Patriots looming in their second half. So, a Giant victory doesn't guarantee them the NFC East, but a loss will make winning the division much more difficult.
The Vikings - Packers matchup is the final big game we want to highlight. You thought we were kidding before when we said this game, didn't you? Well we weren't. How is a matchup between a 3-5 team and a 7-1 team a big game? Well, it is big for the Vikings, and believe it or not, it is big for the Lions. Confused? Let us explain. The Vikings have been playing much better in recent games than they were earlier in the season. Adrian Peterson is setting records left and right. Because of their recent strength we were actually surprised when the PossessionPoints matchup algorithm actually pointed to the Vikings to win. Should that happen it still only puts the Vikings on track for a mediocre 8-8 season. However, there is an outside shot that would be good enough for the playoffs. But a Viking victory here would also bring the Packers back closer to the Lions. The Packers would fall to 7-2 (still a great record and they are a shoe in for the Playoffs) while the Lions would rise to 7-2 themselves if they could post a “W” over the Cardinals. That game would be our next pick for important contests to watch. If the Lions do win, the playoff picture becomes crowded for the NFC and primed for a dark horse team to come charging through. The NFL is too exciting for words!
It should be an interesting week in the NFL. Let us at PossessionPoints.com know what you think in a comment below and visit PossessionPoints.com to learn more about the PossessionPoints stat and how we use it to forecast.
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On to this week’s big games. There are three games we need to highlight this week. Two NFC contests and one AFC. In the AFC, our big game is the one between the Steelers and Browns. Who would have thought we would have been deeming a Browns’ game as an important game nine weeks ago? However, the Browns have showed tremendous Offense even though they have been weak on defense. Despite this weakness, they have a 5-3 record and a win against the Steelers would produce a tie atop the AFC North with both teams having a 6-3 record. PossessionPoints is forecasting a Steelers’ victory mostly because of the Browns’ weakness on defense. If the Browns do pull off a victory, this could set them up as a legitimate playoff contender in the AFC. Unlike the Eagles last week, they are not necessarily out of it with a loss, but if they play to form, PossessionPoints projects they would end the season with a record of 9-7. There could be several 9-7 teams vying for a playoff spot. A win against the Steelers would push the projection to at least 10-6, and the fans in Cleveland can start thinking the unthinkable: playoffs.
In the NFC, the big games are the Vikings - Packers and the Giants - Cowboys.We probably didn't have to tell you that the Giants - Cowboys was a big game. The winner here can be thinking about winning the NFC East and perhaps home field throughout the playoffs, especially if the winner is the Cowboys. The surprise here is the PossessionPoints forecast is pointing to a Giants’ win. In this contest, if the Cowboys lose, they are still very well positioned for the playoffs in the NFC so it is not be a do or die situation. A Giant victory, as with the AFC matchup we highlighted, would bring the Giants into a tie with the Cowboys at 7-2 as that game would be a split of the season series. However, the remaining games on the schedule favor the Cowboys as the Giants still have the Patriots looming in their second half. So, a Giant victory doesn't guarantee them the NFC East, but a loss will make winning the division much more difficult.
The Vikings - Packers matchup is the final big game we want to highlight. You thought we were kidding before when we said this game, didn't you? Well we weren't. How is a matchup between a 3-5 team and a 7-1 team a big game? Well, it is big for the Vikings, and believe it or not, it is big for the Lions. Confused? Let us explain. The Vikings have been playing much better in recent games than they were earlier in the season. Adrian Peterson is setting records left and right. Because of their recent strength we were actually surprised when the PossessionPoints matchup algorithm actually pointed to the Vikings to win. Should that happen it still only puts the Vikings on track for a mediocre 8-8 season. However, there is an outside shot that would be good enough for the playoffs. But a Viking victory here would also bring the Packers back closer to the Lions. The Packers would fall to 7-2 (still a great record and they are a shoe in for the Playoffs) while the Lions would rise to 7-2 themselves if they could post a “W” over the Cardinals. That game would be our next pick for important contests to watch. If the Lions do win, the playoff picture becomes crowded for the NFC and primed for a dark horse team to come charging through. The NFL is too exciting for words!
It should be an interesting week in the NFL. Let us at PossessionPoints.com know what you think in a comment below and visit PossessionPoints.com to learn more about the PossessionPoints stat and how we use it to forecast.
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Saturday, November 3, 2007
NFL Big Games for Week 9
I bet you thought we at PossessionPoints.com were going to talk about the Colts - Patriots game. Well. we're not – well, not really. Sure, we must acknowledge that this game is being played, and its outcome could determine home field advantage for the playoffs for the AFC, but you all know that already. You also know that the winner of that game could be well positioned to go 16-0 for the season, and that every broadcaster in the world will be pre-dubbing that winning team as the “As Close to Perfect as You Can Get NFL Team”. So, since there will be so much press on that game’s outcome, we aren't going to say anything more about it. Instead, we are going to highlight 2 NFC games that could have playoff implications: The Eagles - Cowboys and the Cardinals - Bucs games.
Both the Eagles and the Cardinals are 3-4, but the Eagles rank a surprising 7th on our RPM list for this week while the Cardinals are down at 14th. The surprising thing is that if both teams continue this level of performance, the Cardinals will go 12-4 and easily win their division while the Eagles will struggle to an 8-8 record and miss the playoffs. (See Chart)
How can this be? Schedules. For the remainder of the Cardinals’ season, the best team they play is currently ranked 17th -- the Lions who have a -7.9 RPM. The worst team the Cardinals play is the 32nd-ranked Rams who have an RPM of -59.4. The Eagles are not as fortunate with their schedule. They still have the #1 Patriots who have an RPM of 117.9, the #4 Giants with an RPM of 39 and the #6 Cowboys who the Eagles have to play twice and who have a current RPM of 35.6.
That is why this game is so big for the Eagles. This is a game they are picked and projected to lose. In order to make the playoffs they must reverse their fortunes in one of the games they are picked to lose. This game in Philadelphia looks to be their best shot. This game is huge for the Eagles.
But what about the Cardinals, they are expected to cruise to a playoff spot if they continue to play like they are - right? Well, don’t expect an easy victory as this game is big for their opponent- the Bucs. The Bucs are in a situation closer to the Eagles. The projected record for the Bucs is 8-8. A win here could put them in the 9-7 pack at the end of the year and keep their playoff hopes alive.
For more information on this season's projections and team records according to the PossessionPoints stat, go to PossessionPoints.com.
Both the Eagles and the Cardinals are 3-4, but the Eagles rank a surprising 7th on our RPM list for this week while the Cardinals are down at 14th. The surprising thing is that if both teams continue this level of performance, the Cardinals will go 12-4 and easily win their division while the Eagles will struggle to an 8-8 record and miss the playoffs. (See Chart)
How can this be? Schedules. For the remainder of the Cardinals’ season, the best team they play is currently ranked 17th -- the Lions who have a -7.9 RPM. The worst team the Cardinals play is the 32nd-ranked Rams who have an RPM of -59.4. The Eagles are not as fortunate with their schedule. They still have the #1 Patriots who have an RPM of 117.9, the #4 Giants with an RPM of 39 and the #6 Cowboys who the Eagles have to play twice and who have a current RPM of 35.6.
That is why this game is so big for the Eagles. This is a game they are picked and projected to lose. In order to make the playoffs they must reverse their fortunes in one of the games they are picked to lose. This game in Philadelphia looks to be their best shot. This game is huge for the Eagles.
But what about the Cardinals, they are expected to cruise to a playoff spot if they continue to play like they are - right? Well, don’t expect an easy victory as this game is big for their opponent- the Bucs. The Bucs are in a situation closer to the Eagles. The projected record for the Bucs is 8-8. A win here could put them in the 9-7 pack at the end of the year and keep their playoff hopes alive.
For more information on this season's projections and team records according to the PossessionPoints stat, go to PossessionPoints.com.
Friday, November 2, 2007
PossessionPoints.com Picks 12 out of 13 in Week 8
PossessionPoints.com was 12-1 in its picks of week 8. PossessionPoints.com uses only the PossessionPoints stat to come up with its picks. The stat gives the most accurate view of a team's true performance. We do not use any subjective or emotional criteria in making our picks or our Performance Rankings. If you are interested in statistical picks that have a basis in fact, go to www.possessionpoints.com
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