It is a big week for the NFC East and AFC North. The NFC East - leading Giants go up against their Division rivals, the Dallas Cowboys. Despite the Cowboys’ well-publicized struggles this season, their record is just one win less than the Giants. If they could pull out a victory against NY, they would draw even with them in the win column although they would still have one more loss. However, a Cowboy win would have a secondary effect as well. A Dallas’ victory could open the door for the Redskins to take sole possession of the NFC East lead.
Allow us to use the Redskins to segue into our next big game: The 6-2 Redskins against the NFC North – leading Steelers. At 5-2, the Steelers lead their Division by just one game over the Ravens. Pittsburgh needs this victory to maintain this lead.
The 4-3 Ravens are our third feature game. They will be playing the 3-4 Browns. Earlier this season it seemed the Browns were out of contention but with their recent wins, which include a big victory over the Giants, they have managed to bring their record up to 3-4. If they can beat the Ravens, they would pull even with them at 4-4. Should the Redskins beat the Steelers and the Browns beat the Ravens, the Ravens and Browns would both be one game behind the Steelers opening the playoff door for any team who gets hot later in the season except for - of course - the Bengals. For more information and updates, go to PossessionPoints.com.
Thursday, October 30, 2008
NFL Performance Rankings Week 8
Once again, the Giants maintained their number one ranking according to by virtue of their victory over the Steelers last week. The unbeaten Titans, who are the top of many of the “Classic” opinion-based rankings, rose to number two. Remember,PossessionPoints.com uses only numbers and no emotion or opinion in the determination of our Relative Performance Rankings (RPMs). The Titans are within two RPM points of the NY Giants, so they are well within striking distance of the top spot. A bit further back – 12 points to be exact –is the number three team, the Cardinals. The number four team, the Houston Texans, are the only team without a winning record in our top five. Keep in mind that the Texans have won their last three games, so their performance numbers are on the rise. Holding on to fifth place are the 4-3 Eagles.
Teams that have made some big moves in the Rankings this week are the Ravens who jumped from 16th to eighth place because of their win over Oakland. The Steelers stumbled to 17th from seventh place because of their loss to the Giants.
We warned you last week that a big game could move teams in the middle of the pack a long way up and the down chart depending on how large the win or loss. There are still less than 20 RPMs that separate number eight from number 20. There are six teams in the Red which means they have lower than a -40 in RPMs, and it should come as no surprise that these teams have losing records. The best of this sordid bunch in 27th place is the 3-4 Colts. Most everyone, including the Colts, know that for them to win their Division would take almost a miracle at this point since they are four games behind the powerful Titans. The remainder of the hapless teams, with even less hope of making the playoffs, are the Raiders and Rams, who are both 2-5, followed by the winless Lions and Bengals and finally in last place the 1-6 Chiefs. .
Teams that have made some big moves in the Rankings this week are the Ravens who jumped from 16th to eighth place because of their win over Oakland. The Steelers stumbled to 17th from seventh place because of their loss to the Giants.
We warned you last week that a big game could move teams in the middle of the pack a long way up and the down chart depending on how large the win or loss. There are still less than 20 RPMs that separate number eight from number 20. There are six teams in the Red which means they have lower than a -40 in RPMs, and it should come as no surprise that these teams have losing records. The best of this sordid bunch in 27th place is the 3-4 Colts. Most everyone, including the Colts, know that for them to win their Division would take almost a miracle at this point since they are four games behind the powerful Titans. The remainder of the hapless teams, with even less hope of making the playoffs, are the Raiders and Rams, who are both 2-5, followed by the winless Lions and Bengals and finally in last place the 1-6 Chiefs. .
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
NFL Performance Rankings for Week 7
This week, we welcome back the Giants to the top of our Performance Rankings, but this time around the Giants are not that far ahead of everyone else in the pack. The reason they are not the standout team as before is their run-in with Cleveland’s buzz saw two weeks ago. Because of that one-sided win, the Browns are still hanging around in the number 10 slot instead of wallowing in the bottom half of the rankings as you might expect with a 2-4 record.
The 4-2 Cardinals fell to the number 2 spot despite having a bye and the same RPM as last week. They fell due to the better performance of the Giants. The lone undefeated team, the Titans, are in the number 3 spot this week and for the first time, their RPM has moved above 40 which now puts them in the Green territory of the RPM of PossessionPoints.com
Rounding out the top five are two, three-win teams: Vikings and the Eagles. Some of the biggest moves this week were made by the Steelers who moved up from 11 to 7 courtesy of their 5-1 record. The Panthers jumped from 13 to 8 with a 5-2 record, and the Texans who have turned around the 0-4 start to a 2-4 record have catapulted from 23rd to 13th.
On the other side, the 3-4 Saints tumbled from number 3rd to number 12th because they cannot seem to score a touchdown. The 4-3 Bears also fell sharply from 7th to 17th. In the middle of the pack, there is the potential for a lot of movement as only 20 RPM points separate the number 9 team from the number 20 team.
The Detroit Lions lead our bottom five teams with a -68 RPM. The Chiefs are right above them with a -64 RPM while the Rams sit at number 30 with a -58. The 0-7 Bengals are at 29 with a -50 RPM ,and last but not least sitting at number 28 are the Seahawks with a -48 RPM.
Remember, as you look over these numbers, that there is no subjectivity, emotion or opinion contained in them. Our Performance Rankings are based solely on our in-game PossessionPoints statistic which is remarkably accurate in projecting winning teams. For more information, go to PossessionPoints.com.
The 4-2 Cardinals fell to the number 2 spot despite having a bye and the same RPM as last week. They fell due to the better performance of the Giants. The lone undefeated team, the Titans, are in the number 3 spot this week and for the first time, their RPM has moved above 40 which now puts them in the Green territory of the RPM of PossessionPoints.com
Rounding out the top five are two, three-win teams: Vikings and the Eagles. Some of the biggest moves this week were made by the Steelers who moved up from 11 to 7 courtesy of their 5-1 record. The Panthers jumped from 13 to 8 with a 5-2 record, and the Texans who have turned around the 0-4 start to a 2-4 record have catapulted from 23rd to 13th.
On the other side, the 3-4 Saints tumbled from number 3rd to number 12th because they cannot seem to score a touchdown. The 4-3 Bears also fell sharply from 7th to 17th. In the middle of the pack, there is the potential for a lot of movement as only 20 RPM points separate the number 9 team from the number 20 team.
The Detroit Lions lead our bottom five teams with a -68 RPM. The Chiefs are right above them with a -64 RPM while the Rams sit at number 30 with a -58. The 0-7 Bengals are at 29 with a -50 RPM ,and last but not least sitting at number 28 are the Seahawks with a -48 RPM.
Remember, as you look over these numbers, that there is no subjectivity, emotion or opinion contained in them. Our Performance Rankings are based solely on our in-game PossessionPoints statistic which is remarkably accurate in projecting winning teams. For more information, go to PossessionPoints.com.
Thursday, October 16, 2008
NFL Big Games for Week 7
Last week, there were many dramatic games which produced some dicey situations when it comes to Division races. We would like to focus on three big games this week. Each game can mean the difference between an okay season and a playoff bid.
First up is the Saints vs. Panthers game. After six weeks, the Saints find themselves in last place in the NFC South. The NFC South is doing its best impression of the NFC East as this Division has three teams with 4-2 records followed by the Saints with a 3-3 record. When the 3-3 Saints face the 4-2 Panthers this week, New Orleans will have a chance to at least move into a tie with the Panthers. From a PossessionPoints.com Performance Ranking point of view, the Saints look like the team to win this Division, but this game will tell us if the Saints are a bunch of hype or the real thing.
The second game we want to highlight is the 3-3 Chargers traveling to play the 4-1 Bills. In Week 5, the Bills were our top RPM team. They spiraled downward to the middle of the pack with their significant loss to the Cardinals. While not truly a must win for either the Chargers or the Bills, a win for the Bills would allow Buffalo to hold on to the top spot in the AFC East. On the other hand, a win for the Chargers would keep San Diego on the heels of the Broncos or maybe even tie them if Denver should drop another game. A win would definitely give the Chargers an above .500 record for the first time this season.
The third game on our list for the week is a Black and Blue Division Classic: The Vikings visiting the Bears. Both teams are tied with the Packers on top of the NFC North with 3-3 records. The winner will at least have a share of the lead going into Week 8 while the loser will find themselves at least a game back. While this Division is battling each other to achieve .500 record, all their opponents in the NFC South and East already have at least a .500 record. What this means is that the way to the playoffs for an NFC North team is to win the Division as anything less than a Division Championship may not be enough to guarantee postseason play. So, any game when the Vikings, Packers or Bears play each other this season is a big game!
First up is the Saints vs. Panthers game. After six weeks, the Saints find themselves in last place in the NFC South. The NFC South is doing its best impression of the NFC East as this Division has three teams with 4-2 records followed by the Saints with a 3-3 record. When the 3-3 Saints face the 4-2 Panthers this week, New Orleans will have a chance to at least move into a tie with the Panthers. From a PossessionPoints.com Performance Ranking point of view, the Saints look like the team to win this Division, but this game will tell us if the Saints are a bunch of hype or the real thing.
The second game we want to highlight is the 3-3 Chargers traveling to play the 4-1 Bills. In Week 5, the Bills were our top RPM team. They spiraled downward to the middle of the pack with their significant loss to the Cardinals. While not truly a must win for either the Chargers or the Bills, a win for the Bills would allow Buffalo to hold on to the top spot in the AFC East. On the other hand, a win for the Chargers would keep San Diego on the heels of the Broncos or maybe even tie them if Denver should drop another game. A win would definitely give the Chargers an above .500 record for the first time this season.
The third game on our list for the week is a Black and Blue Division Classic: The Vikings visiting the Bears. Both teams are tied with the Packers on top of the NFC North with 3-3 records. The winner will at least have a share of the lead going into Week 8 while the loser will find themselves at least a game back. While this Division is battling each other to achieve .500 record, all their opponents in the NFC South and East already have at least a .500 record. What this means is that the way to the playoffs for an NFC North team is to win the Division as anything less than a Division Championship may not be enough to guarantee postseason play. So, any game when the Vikings, Packers or Bears play each other this season is a big game!
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
NFL Performance Rankings for Week 6
We at PossessionPoints.com are beginning to think the NFL has turned into college football because in the last two weeks the number one team has fallen. These teams were not just beaten; they were beaten badly. Two weeks ago, the Bills were undefeated and number one in our Performance Rankings. Alas, their loss was so one-sided that Buffalo tumbled all the down to Number 16. By virtue of their bye this week, the Bills managed to nudge themselves up a peg to 15.
Last week, the Giants were unbeaten and Number one in our Rankings. They looked like the Super Bowl Champs of last year. Then came Monday Night Football and a determined Browns team. This game also proved to be a one-sided mess for New York, and now the Giants find that they have slipped to Number two in the rankings. This may not sound like a big drop, but the separation between New York and the other NFL teams was substantial. This loss brought them back into the fold of the pack and on par with everyone else. They lost their spot on the pedestal. To underscore how one-sided the Browns’ victory was, it brought Cleveland from Number 20 all the way up to Number 10.
The Arizona Cardinals are our new Number one for the week. One thing we can guarantee is that the Cardinals will not get thumped like their predecessors who occupied the Number one spot before them because Arizona has a bye this week. However, watch out next week. One never knows what one week in the NFL brings.
We would like to highlight a number of teams with winning records whose RPMs(Relative Performance Measures) are negative which is to us a sign of trouble brewing. We have the Broncos and Falcons who are both 4-2. The Broncos have a -1.4 RPM while Atalnta has -1.9 RPM. The Broncos rank 20th in our Performance Charts and the Falcons sit 21st.
Our Top Five teams in our Performance Chart are the Cardinals, Giants, Saints, Titans-the lone unbeaten team, and the Eagles. Our bottom five teams are the Bengals, Lions, Raiders, Chiefs and Rams.
Last week, the Giants were unbeaten and Number one in our Rankings. They looked like the Super Bowl Champs of last year. Then came Monday Night Football and a determined Browns team. This game also proved to be a one-sided mess for New York, and now the Giants find that they have slipped to Number two in the rankings. This may not sound like a big drop, but the separation between New York and the other NFL teams was substantial. This loss brought them back into the fold of the pack and on par with everyone else. They lost their spot on the pedestal. To underscore how one-sided the Browns’ victory was, it brought Cleveland from Number 20 all the way up to Number 10.
The Arizona Cardinals are our new Number one for the week. One thing we can guarantee is that the Cardinals will not get thumped like their predecessors who occupied the Number one spot before them because Arizona has a bye this week. However, watch out next week. One never knows what one week in the NFL brings.
We would like to highlight a number of teams with winning records whose RPMs(Relative Performance Measures) are negative which is to us a sign of trouble brewing. We have the Broncos and Falcons who are both 4-2. The Broncos have a -1.4 RPM while Atalnta has -1.9 RPM. The Broncos rank 20th in our Performance Charts and the Falcons sit 21st.
Our Top Five teams in our Performance Chart are the Cardinals, Giants, Saints, Titans-the lone unbeaten team, and the Eagles. Our bottom five teams are the Bengals, Lions, Raiders, Chiefs and Rams.
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
NFL Performance Rankings for Week 5
It doesn’t matter if you win or lose but how you win or lose that determines your Performance Rankings according to PossessionPoints.com. In Week 4, the Bills held the number one spot in our Performance Rankings, but their poor play caused Buffalo to tumble significantly down to the middle of our chart. The bye week comes just at the right time for the Bills who will have a chance to regroup and prepare for their Week 7 game against the Chargers. If it is any consolation, Bills’ fans, a lot of scoreboard points in the first half against San Diego may position Buffalo for the win as the Chargers do not seem to show signs of life in their games until the second half and sometimes that life comes too late.
The Arizona Cardinals are on the flip side of this situation in that they vaulted up the chart to Number 2 from number 11. These dramatic moves are rather rare in this part of the season. Teams tend not to move 9, 10 or 15 places when the season is already a quarter of the way through. If the Cardinals can avoid making mistakes, their potent offense can carry them not only into a Division championship but deep into the playoffs as well. However as the Houston Texans proved this week, mistakes will kill you.
The Texans are an interesting story in that despite their loss, they moved up the PossessionPoints.com Performance Rankings from 30th to 24th. We are not talking Super Bowl here for the Texans, but their jump does show how PossessionPoints captures performance and to some degree puts aside mistakes figuring that good teams will rise above their errors and eliminate them in the future.
The Top Five teams this week are the Giants, Cardinals, Vikings and the Panthers who are another new addition to the Top Five of our Performance Rankings. The Bottom Five are the Bengals, Colts, Chiefs, Lions and Rams. As you can see by the Colts’ rankings, we do not think much of lucky wins. A team needs to truly perform to move up in our Performance Rankings.
The Arizona Cardinals are on the flip side of this situation in that they vaulted up the chart to Number 2 from number 11. These dramatic moves are rather rare in this part of the season. Teams tend not to move 9, 10 or 15 places when the season is already a quarter of the way through. If the Cardinals can avoid making mistakes, their potent offense can carry them not only into a Division championship but deep into the playoffs as well. However as the Houston Texans proved this week, mistakes will kill you.
The Texans are an interesting story in that despite their loss, they moved up the PossessionPoints.com Performance Rankings from 30th to 24th. We are not talking Super Bowl here for the Texans, but their jump does show how PossessionPoints captures performance and to some degree puts aside mistakes figuring that good teams will rise above their errors and eliminate them in the future.
The Top Five teams this week are the Giants, Cardinals, Vikings and the Panthers who are another new addition to the Top Five of our Performance Rankings. The Bottom Five are the Bengals, Colts, Chiefs, Lions and Rams. As you can see by the Colts’ rankings, we do not think much of lucky wins. A team needs to truly perform to move up in our Performance Rankings.
Saturday, October 4, 2008
NFL Teams: Schedules vs. Performance
In the NFL, a common debate revolves around the role a schedule plays in determining if a team makes the playoffs or not. PossessionPoints.com
tends to side with those that say that there is so little difference between the best and worst teams in the NFL that the differences in schedule may not be all that important. However, over short stretches, schedules can distort how teams perform. Let’s look at past schedules first. Below are the rankings of the strength of teams’ opponents during the first quarter of the season (based on PossessionPoints Relative Performance Measure -RPM).
It is interesting to note that two undefeated teams, the Bills and the Giants, have had the easiest road so far while two winless teams, the Rams and Bengals, have had the hardest. That is easy to figure, right? Well, look at the Redskins and Panthers, they are 3-1 while having the 3rd and 4th toughest schedules so far from a PossessionPoints RPM point of view.
So, what about going forward? What do the teams’ schedules look like for the final three quarters of the season? Below is the chart showing how teams’ future schedules rank based on the RPM of their future opponents:
We found this chart extremely interesting in that the 4-0 Titans have the easiest schedule going forward. Either their opponents have to improve their performance immensely or they should have a relatively easy walk into the playoffs. The 2-2 Bears are also well positioned with the second easiest schedule. The road is toughest for the Giants, Eagles and, unfortunately, for the 1-3 Chiefs and the 1-3 Browns. The easiest future schedule of any NFC East team belongs to the Redskins whose future opponents RPM ranks 20th. The other NFC East teams are all in the top 5 of toughest schedules
tends to side with those that say that there is so little difference between the best and worst teams in the NFL that the differences in schedule may not be all that important. However, over short stretches, schedules can distort how teams perform. Let’s look at past schedules first. Below are the rankings of the strength of teams’ opponents during the first quarter of the season (based on PossessionPoints Relative Performance Measure -RPM).
It is interesting to note that two undefeated teams, the Bills and the Giants, have had the easiest road so far while two winless teams, the Rams and Bengals, have had the hardest. That is easy to figure, right? Well, look at the Redskins and Panthers, they are 3-1 while having the 3rd and 4th toughest schedules so far from a PossessionPoints RPM point of view.
So, what about going forward? What do the teams’ schedules look like for the final three quarters of the season? Below is the chart showing how teams’ future schedules rank based on the RPM of their future opponents:
We found this chart extremely interesting in that the 4-0 Titans have the easiest schedule going forward. Either their opponents have to improve their performance immensely or they should have a relatively easy walk into the playoffs. The 2-2 Bears are also well positioned with the second easiest schedule. The road is toughest for the Giants, Eagles and, unfortunately, for the 1-3 Chiefs and the 1-3 Browns. The easiest future schedule of any NFC East team belongs to the Redskins whose future opponents RPM ranks 20th. The other NFC East teams are all in the top 5 of toughest schedules
Thursday, October 2, 2008
NFL BIG GAMES FOR WEEK 5
No game is more important this week than the Redskins vs. Eagles. Despite the Eagles being a respectable 2-2 this season, they find themselves in almost a must-win situation at home this weekend. Here is why:
While the Eagles are only one game behind the Redskins and Cowboys, they are still in last place in the dominating NFC East. As we look forward through the rest of the season, we see that the Eagles’ future opponents have a current combined record of 25-19 and a percentage of .568 based on the first quarter results while the Washington Redskins’ future opponents have a current combined record of 19-25 and a percentage of .432. What does this mean? Based on these stats, the Eagles have the third toughest remaining schedule in the NFL while the Redskins have the fourth easiest schedule in the NFL. Many prognosticators, including PossessionPoints.com, had originally picked the Redskins to finish fourth. However, a win this week in Philadelphia would put Washington two games ahead of the Eagles and well on their way to better than a last place finish in the NFC East and maybe even a repeat appearance in the Playoffs. We know it is early, but the ramifications of this game are great indeed.
We will have more details about team schedules and where they all stand in a separate article tomorrow.
The next big game is the Colts at the Texans. The Colts are 1- 2 and find themselves in a very unusual situation. They are already three wins behind the Titans in their division. A loss in this game could not only seriously hurt their chances of winning their division but hamper their ability to make the playoffs as well. While it is true that the Titans have built their 4-0 record against competition that is only 3-12 this season, the remainder of their schedule does not look much more challenging as their future opponents’ record is only 17- 26 which gives the Titans the third easiest remaining schedule in the NFL. This indicates the Colts truly have their work cut out for them this season.
While the Eagles are only one game behind the Redskins and Cowboys, they are still in last place in the dominating NFC East. As we look forward through the rest of the season, we see that the Eagles’ future opponents have a current combined record of 25-19 and a percentage of .568 based on the first quarter results while the Washington Redskins’ future opponents have a current combined record of 19-25 and a percentage of .432. What does this mean? Based on these stats, the Eagles have the third toughest remaining schedule in the NFL while the Redskins have the fourth easiest schedule in the NFL. Many prognosticators, including PossessionPoints.com, had originally picked the Redskins to finish fourth. However, a win this week in Philadelphia would put Washington two games ahead of the Eagles and well on their way to better than a last place finish in the NFC East and maybe even a repeat appearance in the Playoffs. We know it is early, but the ramifications of this game are great indeed.
We will have more details about team schedules and where they all stand in a separate article tomorrow.
The next big game is the Colts at the Texans. The Colts are 1- 2 and find themselves in a very unusual situation. They are already three wins behind the Titans in their division. A loss in this game could not only seriously hurt their chances of winning their division but hamper their ability to make the playoffs as well. While it is true that the Titans have built their 4-0 record against competition that is only 3-12 this season, the remainder of their schedule does not look much more challenging as their future opponents’ record is only 17- 26 which gives the Titans the third easiest remaining schedule in the NFL. This indicates the Colts truly have their work cut out for them this season.
Wednesday, October 1, 2008
NFL Performance Rankings Week 4
This week, we have noticed the traditional media outlets moving up the Bills in their “Power Rankings” to number 3. They are catching on to what PossessionPoints.com sees. Last week, we had the Bills in the number 1 spot, and this week the Bills remain in that position. Rounding out the top 4 in our Performance Rankings are the Giants, Eagles, Titans and Chargers. Like the Bills, the Titans are 4-0, but they actually fell a bit in our Performance Rankings from 2nd down to 4th. It is also interesting to note that the Vikings who lost to the Titans also fell in our Performance Rankings from 3rd to 6th. As expected, this 2-3 matchup turned out to be a tough struggle which resulted in both teams falling in the Performance Rankings.
The other item to note in this week’s chart is all the Yellow. All but five teams are coated in Yellow. This demonstrates how competitive the league is this year with few teams standing out with Green performances.
One new feature we have added to our Performance Rankings is the “Ranked Last Week” Column. You can easily see teams that are moving up versus teams that are moving down. The teams moving up are in a Green background while the teams moving down are in a Red background.
We also want to draw your attention to one dramatic fall this week: The Cowboys who have fallen from 8th to 18th. Even when the Cowboys were undefeated and proclaimed as the top NFL team by all the “Power Rankings”, PossessionPoints recognized a weakness in their Defense. Last week, that weakness came through loud and clear with their defeat by the Redskins. Does this mean the Cowboys are finished? Absolutely not, but they need to shore up their Defense.
Rounding out the bottom five in our Performance Rankings are the Colts who hopefully used their bye week to figure out some way to improve their offense; the Chiefs; Texans; Lions (ditto the comment of the Colts); and the Rams who will have a new Coach on the sidelines next week which might help them climb out of the basement.
PossessionPoints.com’s Performance Ratings are unique because they are based on in-game stats that are present in each game every week. Not present in these performance ratings are any opinion and or subjective measure of any type.
The other item to note in this week’s chart is all the Yellow. All but five teams are coated in Yellow. This demonstrates how competitive the league is this year with few teams standing out with Green performances.
One new feature we have added to our Performance Rankings is the “Ranked Last Week” Column. You can easily see teams that are moving up versus teams that are moving down. The teams moving up are in a Green background while the teams moving down are in a Red background.
We also want to draw your attention to one dramatic fall this week: The Cowboys who have fallen from 8th to 18th. Even when the Cowboys were undefeated and proclaimed as the top NFL team by all the “Power Rankings”, PossessionPoints recognized a weakness in their Defense. Last week, that weakness came through loud and clear with their defeat by the Redskins. Does this mean the Cowboys are finished? Absolutely not, but they need to shore up their Defense.
Rounding out the bottom five in our Performance Rankings are the Colts who hopefully used their bye week to figure out some way to improve their offense; the Chiefs; Texans; Lions (ditto the comment of the Colts); and the Rams who will have a new Coach on the sidelines next week which might help them climb out of the basement.
PossessionPoints.com’s Performance Ratings are unique because they are based on in-game stats that are present in each game every week. Not present in these performance ratings are any opinion and or subjective measure of any type.
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