PossessionPoints Features

Schedule Analysis Page is Back

2011-11-02T17:28:00.000-07:00

Last season we introduced our schedule analysis page. On this page we look at teams past and future opponents both by win / loss records as well as PossessionPoints RPM.
Read more »

A PossessionPoints.com View of Week one 2011 Season

2011-09-13T06:12:00.000-07:00

Week 1 produced a good start for the matchup page especially Against The Spread (ATS). For the week, we were 9-7 straight up, but we were actually better in ATS going 10-6. Our Bronze selections were 2-0 ATS and our Delaware 3-Pick was 2-1. The Season Preview picks like the Matchup picks went 9-7. The other thing to watch this season, our top 8 confidence picks were 5-3. We will be tracking and reporting on all these throughout the season.
Read more »

2011 Season Preview: Cleveland Browns

2011-08-25T16:17:00.000-07:00

AFC North – Browns
Summary:

The Browns are playing in one of the tougher conferences in the league just by virtue of having to play the Steelers and the Ravens twice. Last year they weren’t a very good PossessionPoints team with an offense that ranked 26th and a defense that ranked 23rd. Last year we had real questions about the Browns QB, this year we are pretty confident Colt McCoy is going to be the number 1 QB. Veteran Seneca Wallace looks to be the backup. McCoy is a wildcard in our view, he shows great potential but the question is will he get to top form this season. We expect some improvement but aren’t going to go wild. We are actually looking for a little bigger improvement on defense.

2011 Season Preview: Cincinnati Bengals

2011-08-24T15:33:00.000-07:00

AFC North – Bengals
Summary:

Last year the Bengals were an average PossessionPoints team with an offense that ranked 16th and a defense that ranked 14th. Despite these average to above average numbers the Bengals managed just a 4-12 record. We would classify this as an underperformance and we would expect some bounce back in record even if there were to be no improvement in performance. That is a good thing because with the loss of veteran quarterback Carson Palmer and wide receivers Chad Ochocinco and T.O. we are actually lowering their offensive numbers by 10%. We left their defensive performance unchanged.

2011 Season Preview: Baltimore Ravens

2011-08-22T15:54:00.000-07:00

AFC North – Ravens
Summary:

The Ravens showed they are going to be a team to contend with every year last year. After falling back to Earth two years ago with a 9-7 playoff making record they once again had an outstanding 12-4 record. They were a good but not outstanding PossessionPoints team last season ranking 13th in offense and 10th in defense. In the past the Ravens running attack had depth, this season it appears that they will be heavily relying on Ray Rice. Yes, they picked up Ricky Williams to compliment Rice but as good as he is he is at 34 he is really getting up there in age for an NFL running back. They picked up Lee Evans at wide receiver and drafted two wide receivers so they may be stronger there but they lost Todd Heap at tight end and his contributions will be difficult to replace. So, we lowered their offense by 5% and left their defensive performance unchanged.

2011 Season Preview: Pittsburgh Steelers

2011-08-19T08:27:00.000-07:00

AFC North – Steelers
Summary:

Last season we worried about the impact the suspension of Big Ben Roethlisberger might have on the team. This season we wonder if the marriage of Roethlisberger might settle the quarterback such that he once again has a super season. Free agency and the draft did not seem to bolster the offense. So we took 5% off their offensive performance from 2010. They did draft Cameron Heyward a top defensive end with their first pick even though they are coming off a 2010 defensive performance that ranked 3rd in the league we upped their defensive performance by 5%, that would move them to 2nd this season.

2011 Season Preview: Buffalo Bills

2011-08-18T15:10:00.000-07:00

AFC East – Bills

Summary:

The Bills had a yet another season to forget last year. We projected them to have a 4-12 season and that is exactly what they had. The Bills didn’t improve much offense at all and just like 2009 they finished 2010 with the 28th ranked offense as measured by the PossessionPoints stat. They averaged just 70 Offensive PossessionPoints (PosPts) per game in 2010 which was dead on the 10% positive adjustment we gave them in last year’s issue. That level is still well below the 83 PosPts they averaged in 2008. (For those less familiar with PosPts, in a game we turn a team’s offensive effort “green” when they go over 100 PosPts. At the 100 PosPts level a team wins 75% of the time). While the Bills’ offense moved in the right direction last season it still has a long way to go.

2011 Season Preview: Miami Dolphins

2011-08-17T17:41:00.000-07:00

AFC East – Dolphins

Summary:

Last year we projected the Dolphins would have good season but still miss the playoffs. We were half right, they missed the playoffs but their 2010 season can be best classified as average as went 7-9 for the second year in a row. This year they have a slightly tougher than average schedule with the 12th toughest schedule by the PossessionPoints (10th toughest by the classic method). Their 2010 PossessionPoints performances had them with the 20th ranked offense and 13th best defense. Getting their offense back on track and continuing to improve their defense will be key to 2011. We went out on a limb some and adjusted their offense up 10% and their defense 5%.

2011 Season Preview: NY Jets

2011-08-17T14:25:00.000-07:00

Continuing with the 32 team by team preview and projections.

AFC East – Jets
Summary:

Last year, we thought “the progression of Mark Sanchez and the Jets offense” would improve so we adjusted their offense up and projected a 12-4 record. The second year of Sanchez was an improvement but not quite as much as we thought so they got to 11-5. Not a bad projection overall. There is still room for Sanchez and the Jets offense to improve further and we are forecasting just that. In 2010 the Sanchez-led offense ranked 17th in the league, and the defense ranked 8th in the league as measured by the PossessionPoints stat. Their quest for the Super Bowl fell short for the second year in a row, and Rex Ryan made it very clear he was not happy with just playing in January, he was looking to get to that big game in February.

Patriots Poised To Take AFC East Title

2011-08-14T18:25:00.000-07:00

Each preseason PossessionPoints forecasts how each team will do in the upcoming season based on our stat from the prior season and adjustments we make to it for all teams. This year since we converted PossessionPoints.com to a free site we are making the preview available team by team on this site. In each writeup we look at our forecast and then an optimistic and pessimistic scenario.

Patriots

Summary:

Another year, another season we think the Patriots are the team to beat in the AFC East. Tom Brady’s knee injury is now becoming a distant memory and there is no need to question his durability. Could the Patriots make another run at an unbeaten season? While unlikely, is not impossible. We have pointed out in the past that the Patriots’ coaching staff is a real strength, and they have a true talent when it comes to rebuilding the roster and assistant coaching staff to maintain a high level of play. There never seems to be a question about chemistry or how player X will blend with this team. But this year may be a real test of that with the addition of Chad Ochocinco and Albert Haynesworth. This season, on the adjustment front, we went very conservative with the Patriots. The defense matured nicely last season and if Haynesworth is even close to the player he was with the Titans the defense will definitely improve. So we adjusted the offense and the defense up by 5%. With these adjustments for the Patriots, the computer produced a projected 14-2 record and well positioned to make another run at the Super Bowl.

Pre-Season Begins Tonight

2011-08-11T04:13:00.000-07:00

NFL Preseason Kicks Off Tonight

We had our doubts as the labor negotiations dragged out this summer, but the NFL Preseason starts tonight on schedule. The only casualty was the Hall Of Fame game.

PossessionPoints.com is ready for the start with a big announcement, the site has been converted to a "free" site this season. You still need a login ID to get access to all of the game by game data but you can register and get that login for free. Giving us your e-mail is part of that sign-up, but you will only get e-mail from us as we don't give away or sell our e-mail lists. And you won't even get that much e-mail from PossessionPoints. Twice per week is our standard amount--once to send you our newsletter and the other to tell you when our Match-up page has been posted.

NFL Playoff Picture: Eighteen NFL Teams Control Their Own Destiny

2010-12-04T06:32:00.000-08:00

Every year as the NFL season moves toward weeks 16 and 17, the media and fans alike bemoan the practice of “good” teams resting starters for the playoffs and not putting out an effort in the final weeks of the season. Well, it looks like this year is going to be very different. We did some peeking ahead at remaining schedules, and projected some win – loss numbers, and it looks to us as if there will be huge games in the final weeks. In fact, we only see one or two teams that perhaps can take the final week off.
Read more »

PossessionPointsPprojections Prove True

2010-01-19T06:20:00.000-08:00

This week, PossessionPoints.com went 4-0 straight up in the NFL playoffs and 3-1 ATS. The only loss ATS was between the Colts and the Ravens because we thought the Ravens would give Indianapolis a little more run for their money.
Read more »

Dear John (Mara): Your New York Giants Aren't That Bad

2010-01-06T16:45:00.000-08:00

(An Open Letter to Giants’ Owner John Mara)
Earlier this week you expressed your displeasure with the Giants season performance, and you “vowed to make changes.”

You are quoted as saying “I am disappointed in everybody, in everything. I’m unhappy with everyone. It’s just not acceptable to perform like that. There are 8-8 seasons and there are 8-8 seasons, but this one felt more like 2-14 to me.”
Read more »

Titans and Broncos: A Study of Contrasting Seasons

2009-11-25T16:39:00.000-08:00

When the NFL schedule came out last spring, a quick glance at the bye weeks showed that two of the teams off in Week Seven were the Titans and Broncos.

If we told you in the summer that one of these two teams would be 6-0 and the other would be 0-6, and then asked you to tell us who would have the winning record, we are confident that you and any other football fan would have replied, “That’s easy—the Titans will be 6-0 and the Broncos will be 0-6.”
Read more »

AFC North: Toughest Division in the NFL?

2009-11-15T07:00:00.000-08:00

Get a group of football fans together talking about their favorite teams, comparing records and schedules, and sooner or later, someone will throw out a phrase along the lines of “Well, they play in a tougher division.”

We, at PossessionPoints.com , confess we love this discussion. We write about it as often as we can. We address this issue in the preseason , regular season, postseason, and offseason.

NFL 2009 Win – Loss Records: A Look At The Schedule Excuse

2009-10-16T13:58:00.000-07:00

It does not seem to matter if your team has a good record or a bad record. Why? Because, fans, sportscasters and writers will point to your team’s schedule and tell you if their record is either the beneficiary of an easy schedule or the victim of a difficult one.

We are not going to belabor the point, but as of now we would say that there are only seven teams in the league who based on their schedule should be looking in the mirror and feeling especially proud or upset with themselves.

We have heard the schedule excuse relative to the Vikings, Giants and Redskins. Well, in the Redskins’ case, we hear how they have been responsible for the first win for three teams, and they have a 2-3 record to prove it. In fact, it is pointed out by various sources that they have not faced a team that has a win on their record at the time the Redskins played them.

Since PossessionPoints.com is a “data analysis” company, we decided to look at all 32 teams and the win-loss records of their opposition to date to see where everyone’s record and performance truly stacks up in relation to their schedule.

The results were interesting. Fifteen teams have played opposition whose current combined record is over .500. Of those teams, only three of them - the Patriots, Bengals and 49ers - have a winning record. None of the five currently unbeaten teams have played teams whose combined record is over .500.

That leaves seventeen teams to have played opposition whose current combined record is under .500. Of those teams, only four of them - the Jaguars, Bills, Texans and Redskins - have a losing record. None of the four currently winless teams have played a teams with a combined record below .500.

Does it sound too obvious to state that if you have played tough teams you have a tough time winning while if you play lesser teams you have a tough time losing?

The table below shows all the teams sorted by their past opponents’ winning percentage. The Lions and Browns have faced pretty tough competition, but at least the Browns’ future opponents have a sub .500 record. The Patriots, Bengals and 49ers, who we highlighted before, also face future competition with a sub .500 record. On the flip side, the going gets tough for the Giants, Eagles, Vikings, Ravens and Bears (unfortunately it’s no picnic for the Redskins either) as they all face future competition whose combined record is well above .500.

Saints Shine in FIrst Quarter of 2009 NFL

2009-10-10T13:56:00.000-07:00

The Saints are one of the teams to start this year with a record of 4-0. At PossessionPoints.com our expectations were high for the Saints this season as we expected that they would win their division and play the Giants in the NFC championship. Nothing we have seen in the first quarter of this year makes us rethink our projection. If we were to rethink anything, it might be the expectation of the Giants as the NFC champions.

The Saints currently have the best Relative Performance Measure in the league with an RPM of 68.6. (For more details on the PossessionPoints.com RPM see the Bleacher Report article “Week 2 Performance Rankings” where we do a more through explanation of this measure).

The Saints have achieved their 4-0 record while facing teams with a combined record of 7 wins and 8 losses or a .467 winning percentage. The four teams that they have played have a combined RPM of -20. By either measure, their first-quarter schedule ranked 20th in the league.

Their schedule going forward does not look much tougher. Their future opponents have a combined record of 16 wins and 28 losses for a winning percentage of .364 which is the lowest winning percentage of any team’s future opponents’ schedule. By the RPM measure, their future opponents have a combined -96 which ranks 27th in the league.

By contrast, the Giants have played teams with a combined record of 4 wins and 12 losses (a 0.250 winning percentage) and an RPM of -103. The negative103 RPM was the easiest 4-game combination in the league. By combined record, the .250 winning percentage also ranked as the easiest in the league.

Going forward, the Giants’ future opponents have a combined 26 win - 17 loss record (0.605 winning percentage) and a combined RPM of -2. From a winning percentage point of view, that is the second toughest schedule while from an RPM point of view it is the 14th toughest.

Our outlook looks bright for the Saints. Their schedule does not look tough, and their performance has been outstanding. If they keep it up, we could easily see them playing the Giants, who are number two on our RPM chart with an RPM of 56, in the NFC championship game which was our original forecast for them.

The full Week 4 Performance Ranking chart is below:

NFL Week Two Performance Rankings

2009-09-24T18:02:00.000-07:00

In our articles, we often refer to our “Relative Performance Measure” or (RPM) which is the statistic we use to make up our performance rankings. Unfortunately, it is impossible to explain our RPM fully in each article, but we do get questions from readers such as “What is your RPM?” and “Why is it significant?”

Since it is early in the season, and there are only two games to go on with our RPM, we thought we’d take the time here to explain what they are, and why they are significant.

What are the PossessionPoints.com RPM numbers?

This may take some time to explain, so be patient and stay with us. You won’t be sorry.

The basic PossessionPoints.com stat is an offensive measure. It is a blended stat (which means it is generated by a mathematical formula from other stats and game information). As the name implies, “time of possession of a scoring drive” and “points scored on a drive” are key components. The quarter in which the points are scored also come into play.

As an offensive measure, we have key cutoffs at 60 and 100 (From analyzing numbers, we determined that 60 and 100 were significant levels where winning percentages changed.) This is where our color codes come in.

We turn an offense “yellow” at 60 and “green” at 100. From the time that we have been keeping this stat from the 2006 season, we have noticed that a team that gets to the “green” level of offensive performance, wins better than 75 percent of the time.

The defense of a team is measured by how many PossessionPoints it allows the opponent’s offense to total. The same key cutoffs apply, but this time we start a defense “green” and turn it “yellow” at 60 and “red” at 100. A team, that keeps its opponent below 60 (Green), wins better than 80 percent of the time.

We have talked about offense and defense but haven’t mentioned RPM yet. To get a “team” measure in a game, we simply subtract their defensive PossessionPoints performance from their offensive performance. This net number can be positive or negative and has its own significance.

You’ll note the 40-point yellow range in the offensive and defensive numbers. That range has significance here also. We color the net “green” at positive 40 and “red” at negative 40. Here a green net equates to better than 90 percent winning. This net number is a single game “Performance Measure.”

Our season “Relative Performance Measure” is the average that a team has performed in all of the games they have played.

Why is the RPM significant?

This is an interesting question because different people find significance in different numbers so we will look at a couple of things. As you know, 12 teams make the playoffs each year. Based on end-of-regular-season RPM’s, eight of the top 12 RPM teams in 2006 and 2008 made the playoffs, and 10 of the top 12 in 2007 made the playoffs.

In 2006 and 2007, five of the seven teams with the lowest RPMs to make the playoffs lost their first game, and in 2008 six out of seven lost their first game. In 2008, three of the top four were in the Conference championship games, and in 2006 and 2007 it was two out of four.

Another way to look at significance is to look at a team that this season is defying the PossessionPoints stat, and is 2-0 despite a very red -66 RPM. That team is the Colts.

In 2006, the Colts went 12-4 and won the Super Bowl. They finished the regular season with an RPM of 17 which was tenth in the league. They owe it all to their offense who was first with an average 134 PossessionPoints per game. Their defense was dead last with an average of 116 PossessionPoints allowed. But they won it all.

However, if you remember, their defense came alive in the playoffs and performed to an average of just 53 PossessionPoints allowed in the Playoffs. So, there was no surprise that this new-found defensive strength coupled with their famed offense, proved to make the Colts unstoppable that year in the Playoffs.

In 2007, the Colts as a team did better in the regular season with an RPM of 29, but their offensive performance fell a little to 124 while their defense improved to 94. They went 13-3 and got a first-round playoff bye. They met the 11-5 Chargers who had the No. 2 defense that year and an RPM not far behind the Colts at 23. The Chargers’ prevailed 28-24, and the Colts were one and done in the Playoffs.

In 2008, the Colts were again 12-4 like 2006, but this time they were one of the few teams to ever make the playoffs with a negative RPM. Last season, they had a -6 RPM and had to travel to San Diego to play the Chargers in the first-round game.

The Chargers’ regular season RPM was 29. It was by no means a mismatch, but the Chargers did prevail 23-17, and the Colts were once again one and done.

We find significance in winning football games, but can a team win without following the PossessionPoints formula? Sure, it seems the Colts are trying harder than ever to prove it in 2009, but we wouldn’t count on it. More likely the Colts will take a deep breath, realize they are fortunate to be 2-0 and make fixes that will result in them performing better by our measure.

On to the Week Two Rankings:

As the season goes on and there are more weeks of data, we would stack our stat-generated “performance rankings” against any opinion-based “power rankings.” Early in the season with only two games done, many position changes for the teams are still ahead of us.

Does it surprise anyone that the Jets are on the top of the performance rankings after two weeks? The probability is that their numbers cannot stay this strong. An RPM of 100 is way more than the Patriots’ 2007 RPM of 83.

That RPM was off the charts for a full season. By comparison, last year the Steelers after the Super Bowl had the top RPM, but it was only 37. So, we have to believe the Jets will come back to the pack a bit, and the question we have to ask is that as they get reeled back in will they continue to win?

Behind the Jets are the Saints, while the Jets have been defense led (allowing only 23 PossessionPoints per game) the Saints as you probably have guessed have been offense led posting an average of 163 PossessionPoints per week.

It’s a long season, but those two teams are off to a great start. We could talk a lot more about the chart below, but we spent a great deal of space trying to answer some questions we have gotten in the past.

2009 NFL Preseason Performance Rankings

2009-09-03T11:39:00.000-07:00

While we like to ignore most preseason records, we do take a look to see how teams measure up in our “relative performance measure” (RPM). However, similar to preseason records, YOU CAN’T READ TOO MUCH INTO THESE NUMBERS. The reason we do present them is to highlight any warning signs that teams may be exhibiting.

While these RPMs are interesting to look at and speculate about, you have to remember two things: Only three preseason games are used in generating these numbers and preseason games are not coached or even played like regular season games.

Since the RPMs are an average of just three games , a single game like the Saints thumping of the Raiders, can skew things for these two teams. The Saints vaulted to the top while the Raiders sunk to the bottom. The Saints’ RPM number of 90 is a better game average than the 2007 Patriots who had an RPM of 83 and went 16-0. At possessionpoints.com, we admit that we like the Saints a lot this season, but not that much.

It is nice to see that the preseason Saints are not doing anything to make us back off our preseason preview prediction which says that New Orleans will be a playoff team this year. But note that the Falcons are right there on the Saints’ heels in the preseason, so that could be a very interesting division to watch.

Right behind the Saints and Falcons are last year’s two Super Bowl teams: the Steelers and Cardinals. The Steelers had a full season RPM last year of just over 40 and their preseason number is very similar.

The Giants, Eagles, Texans and Packers are all teams we think could and should make the playoffs, and their RPMs are right around 0. It is not impossible for teams to get into the playoffs with an RPM that low, but when it happens typically a team loses their first playoff game. (See the article we wrote in January, Playoff Upsets – What Upsets?)

An RPM in the low, single-digit, negative numbers to an RPM that goes positive is not something to get too concerned about in the preseason from our point of view.

The opposite is true too. You’ve probably heard it a hundred times this preseason: The Lions went 4-0 last year in the and then went 0-16 in the regular season. Preseason numbers would have been misleading at best putting the Lions near the top of the chart..

So, are we concerned about the 1-2 Chargers who have a terrible -55 RPM? Yes, we are a little, To us, this might be a warning flag. We would rather see the Chargers’ RPM up there with the 0-3 Broncos. But the Chargers have started slowly in the regular season in the past and still managed to make the playoffs. Will they repeat that trend this season? Perhaps, they are getting their slow start out of the way in the preseason, so they can get into a winning frame of mind quickly in the regular season.

We hope that is the case, as they might not be able to afford being upset by the Raiders in their opener this year since they have the Ravens and Steelers as two of their next three opponents. We would hate to see them go into their early bye week with a 1-3 record especially since our preseason preview was expecting them to be 3-1 at that point.

Ain’t the preseason fun?

2009 Fantasy Football Player Lists With A Twist

2009-08-30T13:42:00.000-07:00

It is late preseason, and if you can’t find a list ranking players for Fantasy Football then you aren’t looking too hard.

Fantasy lists vary from site to site, but possessionpoints.com likes to look at things a bit differently. Our player lists contain an “expected value” next to the player’s name. This expected value helps Fantasy participants gauge if there really is a difference between the No. 4 and No. 5 players on the list. Of course, this “expected value” is based on one particular scoring system, which we list at the end of this article for your reference. Depending on the Fantasy game you may play, this expected value may vary some, but it still gives you a relative difference between players.

When you look at most lists, look to see if they are they giving you a list for the best player next week or for the remainder of the season? Can you even tell? Fantasy can get complicated, so you have to know what your list is telling you.

Over the last three years, we have found that many Fantasy players have the most fun when they can actively manage their team. To accommodate this management need, we provide three lists for each player position: an Expected Value for Next Week, an Expected Value for the Next Four Weeks, and an Expected Value for the Remainder of the Season. We give you a sneak peak at these lists later in this article.

If you are someone who wants to set your roster and only make changes when injury or something like that forces you to, then look at the Remainder of the Season charts. You’ll have your up and down weeks, but in the end, we think the top players on this list will serve you best.

However, if you are like most Fantasy players, you will want to know what to expect from your players this week and who on your roster to sit or play. For this type of game involvement, you need the Expected Value for Next Week chart.

Four weeks into the NFL season completes a quarter of the season, so even if you only adjust your roster a few times a season, you may want to look at the next quarter of the season to see where your players stand. That’s why we have the Next Four Weeks list.

See for yourself below how the lists can vary by looking at just the top five in each player position.

Quarterbacks:

It would seem that it is hard to go wrong with any of the top five QBs for the season: Brees, Brady, Rodgers, Romo and Rivers. Tony Romo is one that we struggled with as far as any offseason adjustments. He lost a top target, Terrell Owens, but perhaps team chemistry will make the difference here.

If we had him on our fantasy team, we would keep a close eye on how he performs the first few weeks. We expect he will be with the leaders the first week, and the first 4 weeks. However, if he underperforms early, perhaps you might want to see if you can upgrade as there is a pretty good chance he will fall short of being a top five for the full season.

Running backs:

Let’s see: Adrian Peterson, Adrian Peterson and Adrian Peterson. Anybody surprised by that? Of course not, but some of the other players on our lists surprised us a bit.

DeAngelo Williams isn’t on the “Next 4 weeks” chart, mostly because he has a bye in week Four. This shows what every Fantasy player knows, and that is you have to manage carefully for bye weeks. Our full lists also highlight in what week players have byes. It looks to us that Matt Forte, Clinton Portis and Maurice Jones-Drew may have a better first quarter of the season than they will the remainder of the season.

Wide Receivers:

Larry Fitzgerald is tops on our Expected Value for the Remainder of the Season chart, but his bye in week four keeps him off the “Next 4 Weeks” chart. Greg Jennings is fifth on the season chart, and we really think the Rodgers to Jennings combination could be as potent as the Brady to Moss combination.

Calvin Johnson will be a top target for whoever is the starting QB in Detroit. However, the biggest variable with Calvin Johnson will be the Lions themselves. If, as a team, they improve over last year, then he will be a top, if not the top Fantasy receiver this year. For Calvin Johnson to become the top receiver in week one depends on whether or not the Saints have improved on defense. If in your draft you have the choice between Calvin Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald, nobody would be the least bit surprised by a selection of Fitzgerald.

Tight Ends:

Similar to the other lists, nobody will be surprised to see Witten, Gates, Clark or Gonzales on the top of these lists. Where the lists get interesting is seeing Shockey at number two for the first week. We guess we he can attribute this to the fact that the Saints open up against the Lions in Week one.

Defense / Special Teams:

Defenses that can generate turnovers and score are featured on these lists. The Ravens, Steelers and Titans all fit that description. We are a little worried that we may not have made enough adjustments to the Eagles’ defense from last season, and that they won’t live up to our expected values. They have a new defensive coordinator and have already lost their starting middle linebacker for the season. However, Asante Samuels appears primed to have a big season in the turnover department. If he can convert a few of his picks into touchdowns, the Eagles should have a top five defense.

Kickers:

Kickers are typically taken in the later rounds of the draft, and with good reason. If you get one of the good ones, there isn’t that much difference over the course of the season. So draft a top kicker, and forget about him, as long as he doesn’t get hurt, he should contribute.

For completeness, the scoring system on which our Expected Values are based is:
Touchdown is 6 points - passing, receiving, rushing or Kick return (a passing TD the QB and receiver get 6pts. Kick return points go to player not DEF/special teams)
Passing: 0.03 points per yard passing, -3 points for an INT
Rushing: 0.1 points per yard
Other: -2 points for a fumble, 2 points for 2 Point conversion.
Kicking: 3 points for FG, +1 if over 39 yards, +0.1 point each yard over 40, 1 point for PAT, -1 point missed PAT or FG under 30 yards
Defense/special team: 6 points TD (not kickoff or punt returns), 2 points safety, 2 points INT, 2 points fumble recovery, 2 points blocked kick (FG, punt, PAT), 1 point QB sack, 12 points if No Points are allowed, -0.5 points for each point allowed.

PossessionPoints.com's Preseason Preview Issue Has Arrived

2009-08-16T19:13:00.000-07:00

PossessionPoints.com is thrilled to announce that our Preseason Preview Issue is now available on our site. Our 35-page publication analyzes each NFL team according to our PossessionPoints stat.

In our analysis, we offer our projections for each team's performance for the upcoming season. We base our projections on last season's PossessionPoints performance Rankings and make adjustments to them by taking into account key factors such as "coaching continuity, strength of schedule and changes in offense and defense.

We also want to stress that PossessionPoints.com Rankings are different from traditional power rankings in that they offer no opinion or emotional bias. They are completely objective and quantifiable.

Our preview issue also offers upside scenarios for each team where we look at where a team can improve their records and downside scenarios which focuses on how a team may fall.

Most importantly, we will give you our projection on who is going to the Big Dance in February.

Last season, PossessionPoints.com had a 153-103 record in game projections - not bad when you consider we made our projections before a preseason game was even played.

To get a copy of our Preseason Preview Issue, just go to PossessionPoints.com. You can order just the preview issue or you can sign up for a membership and get the preview issue for free!

Since we are in preseason, our special pricing on membership still applies. Once the regular season begins, prices go up because the value of the PossessionPoints stat goes up with each game.

Come and see what PossessionPoints.com can do for you. As a member, you will receive weekly match up pages for all games both straight up and against the spread (ATS), weekly team pages with trendlines, fantasy player updates that analyze players on a weekly, four-week and remainder of season basis and unique information that no one else has.

Could Peyton Manning Lock Up His Trip To Canton This Year?

2009-08-01T11:02:00.000-07:00

Many people already consider Peyton Manning a surefire Hall Of Famer, and quite frankly we won’t argue with them. But we know there are still some doubters. This year, Peyton has to take on a larger leadership role than ever before in his pro career. His team is going through a major transition with a new head coach, Jim Caldwell, and a new offensive coordinator, Clyde Christensen.

No matter how much successors strive for consistency with their predecessors, they are still different people with different ways of doing things. No two people, even if they have worked together in the past, perform exactly alike. How these differences translate to the team will, in our view, dictate how the Colts season goes.

If football were a normal business, these changes would be viewed as “safe” since you promoted the assistant head coach / QB coach to head coach and the wide receivers coach to offensive coordinator. Both coaches have been with the Colts for eight years. On the surface, this could look like a very smooth natural progression with little effect on the Colts.

However, let’s face facts. NFL football is anything but a “normal business.” Team composition changes from year-to-year, and the fine line that separates good and bad moves around the league each year as well. Teams go from the cellar to the penthouse and vice versa in the blink of an eye.

The Colts could be in for a very difficult season if the Titans can maintain their stride from last season, the Texans continue to improve, and the Jaguars return to their 2007 form.

If the Colts win their division and “make some hay” in the playoffs, we have to believe it will be in large part due to the leadership and playing ability of their quarterback. If that doesn’t push any doubter over the edge as far as Manning’s Hall Of Fame credentials, we don’t know what would.

When we look at the Colts of last season, we see two different teams. Early in the year, Manning struggled to get over his offseason knee surgery. Look at the chart below:

In the last nine games, the Colts’ offense was 92% better by our measure than it was in the first seven games.

Was Peyton Manning’s health the only thing that caused this turn around? It is hard to say because the defense performed much the same in the last nine games as it did in the first seven. In fact, there was only a negligible one percent difference by our measure.

So, perhaps we are putting too much on the shoulders of Manning, but we will be watching the Colts this year with great interest. As we said, conditions appear right for the Colts to have a mediocre season, but in our view, the wildcard is Peyton Manning.

PossessionPoints.com Gearing Up for 2009

2009-07-30T13:11:00.000-07:00

If you haven't signed up for 2009, now is a great time. Our Preseason Preview Issue is just a couple of weeks away.

We detail how teams look as measured by our PossessionPoints stat.

We cover each team, game by game and tell you how good or how bad they may be.

This season's subscribers will get our Preseason Preview Issue as soon as it comes out. Some of the things we said in last year's issue:

"The Steelers could have a very special year...and a 12-4 record"

"Hey, hey, hey Cardinal fans, this could be your year! ...The result is a 9-7 record"
Of course, we didn't forecast every team's record right, but in our annual preseason issue, we also look at what could go right and what could go wrong and how it affects our forecast.

Here are some examples from last season:

We originally put the Patriots at 14-2, but when we talked about what could go wrong we said:

"It will probably take a key injury or two say to Tom Brady and Randy Moss (no jinx intended), to derail the Patriots this year. But if they do suffer such a hardship, their record could fall to 9-7."

"The computer does give hope if the Dolphins can improve their performance 15% more on offense and defense. If we up their improvement to 25% in each category, their projected record actually vaults all the way to 10-6." (they actually went 11-5 and improved 30% on offense and 28% on defense by our measure)

Sign up today to get 2009's issue as soon as it comes out in mid-August.
What is this one-of-a-kind information that PossessionPoints.com provides worth to you?

Well, until the end of preseason, you can be privy to PossessionPoints.com's information and analysis for an affordable price of $29.95 for the entire season. After the preseason, the subscription price doubles!

If you are a football fan or fantasy football player, don't miss out on our annual preseason special!

Go to PossessionPoints.com now

Looking Forward to a Full Year of Mike Singletary

2009-07-27T05:22:00.000-07:00

As pre-season camps get ready to get underway around the NFL, we find it is time to get rolling on our Pre-Season Preview issue. In this issue, PossessionPoints.com examines all teams’ off-season moves and upcoming schedules. We use this information to make forecasting adjustments for the upcoming season.

Coaching continuity is one key factor we use for forecasting adjustments. For last season’s winning teams, we place greater weight on coaching continuity than we do on last season’s losing teams.

This season, we find ourselves more concerned about the Indianapolis Colts than we do about the St. Louis Rams. Although the Colts have replaced Tony Dungy with his appointed heir, Jim Caldwell is still an unknown commodity in the head coach position.

The question mark around the Colts' new coach makes it difficult to automatically keep the team at a high level of performance; it prompts us to give a neutral to negative adjustment to the Colts in our assessment.

Even though Caldwell has been with the Colts’ organization, it’s hard to quantify his leadership abilities, chemistry with players, and game-day decision in this new position until he performs as a head coach.

Conversely, the Rams hired Steve Spagnuolo, who comes in with a good reputation that was built as the Giants defensive coordinator. Since the Rams have struggled in the past seasons, their performance in the upcoming season will most likely improve. In our calculations, a new coach in this situation becomes a neutral to positive adjustment.

The 49ers are an interesting case. They have Mike Singletary, who took over after the seventh game last season.

When we look to forecast the 49ers’ upcoming season, we need to decide if we want to base our calculations on their full season 2008 data or just the nine games Singletary coached, in which San Francisco went 5-4.

The chart below shows the 49ers’ season split into the pre-Singletary and post-Singletary periods:

Their overall PossessionPoints performance improved 109 percent under Singletary: that overall improvement was driven by the 40 percent improvement in their defense.

The other consideration that comes into play is the team’s '09 schedule. Based on last year’s “overall” PossessionPoints numbers, the 49ers’ '09 schedule is the 26th hardest or 7th easiest, depending on how you want to look at it.

We realize that when a coach takes over in the middle of the season, there is a limit of what he can change. For Mike Singletary to have the effect he had makes for some potentially high expectations next season.

Let’s face facts: the 49ers are not in the toughest division in football. If we get to December and they are contending with the Cardinals and Seahawks for the division title, we would not be surprised.

2009-06-01T06:53:00.000-07:00

As each season looms, the debate over which division is the toughest intensifies. We, at PossessionPoints.com , are no strangers to this debate and love to participate in it as well. Here is our preliminary overview of the NFL divisions. We hope it might help you decide who you think should be known as the “Toughest Division in the NFL”.

This year, we feel there are surprises on the horizon as the parity between NFL teams is on the increase. For many people, parity is a bad word meaning mediocrity, but we view it as a positive. We believe fans will see more teams playing up or raising the bar in performance which could lead to some interesting game results down the road.

As of now, we still look at the NFC East and the AFC South as the division strongholds. Most of the NFL experts and analysts seem to view the Giants and the Eagles as formidable threats on both offense and defense, and many of these experts have one of these teams taking the division and possibly going to the Super Bowl.

While we do not argue this point, we do not want to count out Dallas or the Redskins. Both teams had their struggles last year, but both teams managed a .500 or better season. An injection of talent and the elimination of some team distractions may be enough to hoist one or both of these teams into the playoff arena. With so much potential, this division definitely rates a vote as the toughest in the NFL.

In recent years, the AFC South has also become a force to be reckoned with. It would not surprise us in the least to see the Colts, Titans or even the Texans make their way into the heart of the playoffs. We know that the Colts have adjustments to handle with the retirement of Tony Dungy and offensive coordinator Tom Moore. However, their new head coach, Jim Caldwell, who has worked for Dungy since his Tampa Baydays, was the first choice of Dungy, and the Colts are trying to bring back Moore as a consultant for the team. So, the adjustments may not be too difficult to handle.

As for the Jaguars, we look at them as a team that has to prove a bit more before we list them in the same class as their division opponents. However, they take nothing away from the threat that this division holds as they were a playoff team in 2007. If the Jaguars can forget 2008 and return to their 2007 form, the AFC South could well be the toughest division.

There is a sound argument to also view NFC South, the AFC East and the NFC South as contenders for the toughest division crown. With the Panthers, Falcons and Saints in the NFC South, this division may be ready to let loose this season as they did last season. All the teams in the NFC South also had a .500 or better record in 2008.

Now, Bucs’ fans, do not get upset, but we think it is Tampa Bay that may have a tough time bringing this division home. The Bucs could find themselves playing a very long season this year.

The AFC East gets a boost from the return of Tom Brady to the Patriots’ roster. If the reports about his strength and agility are true, there is no doubt that the Patriots can be viewed as potential Super Bowl contenders. We also assume that the Dolphins have the ability to repeat or beat their 2008 performance. Only the Bills at 7-9 were below .500 in this division last season.

If the Patriots’ return to their 2007 dominance, they can make it more difficult for other teams in their division to get to a .500 or better season.

The Jets may join the club of teams that start rookie QBs with a new head coach. It worked for Atlanta and Baltimore last season, so why not this season? With so much potential waiting to be unleashed from these AFC East teams, this division might turn out to be the toughest of all.

We have to admit that we think the toughness of the NFC North is compromised by the presence of the Detroit Lions. Yes, they have the No. 1 draft pick and yes, their future looks brighter. But it is a long road from 0-16 to the playoffs, no matter what you are paying your new quarterback. We do look for the Lions to improve, but we are doubtful of their ability to make the playoffs.

With that said, the NFC North has some of the toughest competition around with the Bears, Packers and Vikings who are all capable of bringing home a division championship. The most likely suspects for the division title for us at this point are the Vikings or Bears who will no doubt benefit from the addition of Jay Cutler.

So, as of now, we see that five out of the eight divisions have a clear shot at winning the “toughest” moniker, but let’s see how the remaining three divisions – the AFC North and the AFC and NFC West fare.

We know that the AFC North includes not only the Super Bowl Champs, the Pittsburgh Steelers, but their strongest opponent, the Baltimore Ravens as well. Both of these teams will most likely be playoff bound again. However, when your division includes the Bengals and Browns who both have a ton to prove this season, it’s hard to seriously see this division as the toughest.

The AFC West has many questions to answer this year. We do believe that this division is the Chargers to lose. We do see improvements with the Raiders and Chiefs but these improvements are probably not enough to make this division the toughest in the NFL.

The Broncos are now without Jay Cutler, and they also have a new head coach in Josh McDaniels. It is hard to tell if a team will gel with a new quarterback and a new head coach. So, while we see a great deal of potential in this division, we think it is premature at best to say that this division is the toughest.

Last but not least is the NFC West. Okay, the Super Bowl runner-up, the Arizona Cardinals are in this division, but we have to consider the Seahawks, who were perennial champs prior to last season, as a team to consider for the division crown. We said before last season started, that the coaching situation would undo the Seahawks’ season and that proved true. However, with Jim Mora on the sidelines for all of last year, the transition for this team should be complete. We are looking for the Seahawks of old to make a return.

In the NFC West, we also are anxious to see how the 49ers perform in their first complete season with Mike Singletary. Will his high-motivation coaching tactics continue the success he saw with the 49ers last season? Another team that could be on the upswing are the Rams. If their new head coach Steve Spagnola can work the wonders with the entire Rams team as he did with the Giants’ defense, who knows what lies ahead?

Well, that is our preliminary look at the divisions and the positive and negative components of each. Again, what surprises us the most about this season is the increase in parity that exists throughout the league. In our view, parity can only add to the excitement of the game. We are anxious for the 2009 season already.

If we were to rank the divisions in 2008 based on how teams did in our Performance Ranking the final ranking would be:

NFC East

AFC East

NFC South

AFC South

AFC North

NFC North

AFC West

NFC West)

NFL Power Rankings: An Alternative View

2009-05-17T10:09:00.000-07:00

Now that the draft is over and mini-camps have started around the league, the next onslaught of information coming your way will be the never-ending stream of “NFL Power Rankings”.

In some ways, PossessionPoints.com is no different than other information outlets in that we will be presenting our own version of Power Rankings weekly during the season. However, that is where the similarity ends.

We believe that when people look at the lists of Power Rankings they want to see how their favorite team fares in the eyes of those who construct these Power Rankings and if their team has a chance of making it to the playoffs or the Super Bowl.

We would like to state right off the bat that a team’s talent is just one of the factors that determines a team’s win-loss record and a possible playoff berth.

In this article, we would like to highlight four factors that contribute to a team’s final win-loss record. Those factors are randomness, schedule, home field advantage and team quality (traditional Power Ranking if you will). We have provided a lot of the background information for this article on a page on our site.

Randomness:

We know that over the course of a season, a team’s final win-loss record is more than random luck. Much of a team’s success does depend on talent. However, imagine if you will, a scenario where all 32 teams are completely equal in the talent department and there is no such thing as a home field advantage. If these conditions existed, what kind of records do you think you would see?

Do you think that almost all teams would have win-loss records between 7-9 and 9-7?

We put together a quick little spreadsheet and used the 2009 schedule to come up with random results for all 256 games on the schedule. We posted some of the “random season” results on our site, and the results surprised us in that typically, the top teams had 12-4 records, and the bottom teams finished around 4-12.

It may seem strange, until you consider the fact that the chance of winning or losing 12 out of 16 coin tosses is about one in 36, and 11 wins or losses of 16 coin tosses is about one in 15. So, applying this same principle with 32 teams each season, it does make sense that just by random chance, some teams would go 12-4, and some would go 4-12.

We always expect extremes to be rare, and the odds of a random 16-0 or 0-16 record are around 1 in 65,000. As we were working with our spreadsheet, we did see this extreme occur, and it happened on our spreadsheet to the NY Jets. We did not purposely focus on the Jets. It could have been any of the teams, and we could have used any season schedule to get similar results.

We will grant you that the football sometimes takes funny bounces, and this can be a factor in some games during the season making luck or chance a legitimate portion in a team’s win-loss record. It is a totally unpredictable factor, and therefore, it cannot be incorporated into analysis and forecasting equations. Since equations are our thing, we do not want to spend that much time talking about randomness, but we also do not want you to dismiss the fact that it can affect a team’s win-loss record..

Schedule:

Take any ranking system. We do not care if it is an expert’s Power Rankings or last year’s win-loss rankings. You can pick whatever. Play these rankings against this year’s schedule, and you may be surprised at what you find.

To illustrate this point, we took a look at some 2009 Power Rankings that have already been published. For what we are doing in this article, it does not matter if you accept this order as realistic or not. In the example, we chose to focus on the 32 teams were ranked:

1	Patriots	9	Bears	17	Jets	25	Chiefs
2	Steelers	10	Dolphins	18	Broncos	26	Bucs
3	Giants	11	Vikings	19	Texans	27	Bengals
4	Panthers	12	Eagles	20	Saints	28	Browns
5	Colts	13	Packers	21	Redskins	29	Seahawks
6	Falcons	14	Cardinals	22	Bills	30	Raiders
7	Ravens	15	Chargers	23	49ers	31	Rams
8	Titans	16	Cowboys	24	Jaguars	32	Lions

We played these rankings against this year’s schedule neglecting home field advantage or any randomness.

In this scenario, if a team plays a higher-ranked team, the lower-ranked team gets the loss while the higher-ranked wins.

When we played these rankings against the 2009 schedule in this manner, it was no surprise that the top nine teams would become playoff teams. However, the No. 10 Dolphins would miss the playoffs with a record of 9-7 while the No. 11 Vikings would also miss the playoffs with a record of 10-6.

The next playoff team this list for the 2009 season would be the No.12 Eagles who play 11 teams that rank lower than the Eagles and only five teams that rank higher. This would give the Eagles an 11-5 record and a wildcard playoff spot.

Based on these rankings and their schedule, the No. 13 Packers, like the Vikings, would also miss the NFC playoffs with a 10-6 record.

The No. 14 Cardinals and No. 15 Chargers would win their divisions and make the playoffs with 9-7 and 10-6 records respectively.

One would like to think that the 12 best teams make the playoffs each year, but that just is not possible with the way the NFL schedule works, even if every team plays perfectly to its capability each week.

Home Field Advantage:

Now, we are going to get a little more complicated (yes, it is true) but stay with us. To be able to work with home field advantage variations, this we had to quantify how much better one team was relative to another. To keep this as simple as possible, we assumed the difference between each team was a constant.

So, the top ranked team was assigned a +8 (just our own statistical yardstick), the second team a +7.5, the third team a +7. Each team was graded 0.5 away from the one next to it, and the value of 0 was skipped so the bottom team had a -8. With this tight a ranking in our system, very small changes in the value of home field make a big difference.

Now, we can start modifying how much home field is worth and observe what happens to win -loss records and playoff scenarios. In the extreme adjustment of home field advantage, all teams would be 8-8, wining all their home games and losing all their road games. This would be boring. Who wants the home team to always win?

Once again, we used the same example rankings. When we made the home field advantage factor worth just one percent, the playoff picture changed very little. The No. 12 Eagles fell into a tie for the final NFC wildcard playoff spot as they saw their record fall to 10-6. However, it was not the No. 11 Vikings with whom they tied. It was the No. 13 Packers.

When we bumped up home field to two percent, the Packers’ record rose to 12-4, and they tied the Bears for the division. The Vikings remained behind them with a record of 10-6. At this level, the Eagles miss the playoffs with a 9-7 record. The Cardinals would still win the NFC west but now with an 11-5 record. The AFC playoff picture would remain unchanged.

At the four percent level, the Bears, Vikings and Packers all make the playoffs with 11-5 records. The Panthers and Falcons would tie for the NFC South title with 10-6 records.

The only point of this little exercise is to illustrate what many people take as a given. Schedule combined with a home field advantage does play a role in a team’s season and win-loss record. Yet, many Power Rankings omit these factors. Even with the constant distribution of team quality that we used, you can see how the value of home field can change win-loss records and the playoff picture.

Team Quality (Traditional Power Ranking):

Most “Power Rankings” authors are trying to enumerate teams in order of quality. In other words, best teams are ranked highest and the not-as-talented teams are ranked at the bottom. The question we always come up with is: How much better is the No. 1 team over the No. 2 team or even the No. 10 team?

An even distribution like we used in the “home field” analysis above is not a very realistic distribution. The top team may be well ahead of the remainder of the league, as it was with the 2007 Patriots, or the top five teams may be very close together like last season was by our measure. The same is true at the bottom. By our measure, the 2008 Lions fell well below the rest of the league.

To illustrate this, we took the same rankings and gave the top 12 teams relative performance grades between 34 and 45 (Again, our statistical yardstick). The bottom 12 teams got values between -34 and -45 while the middle eight teams were given values between 4 and -4.

Of course with no home field advantage, the records are the same as we described in the “schedule” section. We need to vary home field by larger increments now since the separation between the 32 teams is much greater being between 45 and -45 as opposed to 8 and -8 in the example above.

At a four percent adjustment, the Chargers no longer make the playoffs and are replaced by the Broncos who had a “Power Ranking” of 18. The Bears and Vikings make the playoffs while the Packers do not.

At a 15% adjustment, the Chargers are back in with a 9-7 record while the Broncos fall out with an 8-8 record. The Packers move back into contention for a playoff spot as their record equals the Vikings at 11-5. A tie breaker would determine who made the playoffs.

So What?

You are probably thinking, “So what, if you play with numbers enough you can make them say anything you want.” Well, not really, even given their relatively low power ranking of 14 there was virtually nothing we could do to make the Cardinals miss the playoffs. The NFC playoff picture fluctuated much more than the AFC playoff picture did.

Even if an all-knowing supernatural NFL power provided a perfectly ordered list of best to worst teams, the chances that the top 12 teams on this list make the playoffs would be very slim for the reasons we have explained.

A Different List:

As we said at the start of the article, we also publish a list that resembles the “Power Rankings” list. We call it our “Performance Rankings” because it is based on how teams perform in our PossessionPoints stat.

We are not going to explain all that goes into our stat in this article because we would bore you to death, but the end result is a positive or negative number we call the “Relative Performance Measure” or RPM. Our RPM list is just the ranking of teams from the largest RPM to the smallest. But with the RPM, you can see how close one team is to another. In fact, two adjacent teams may either be a fraction or several numbers apart. Typically the 32 teams will be spread over a 90-point or more range.

Below is a Performance Rankings chart. The last column, on the right shows the final RPM from last season (with one exception we will talk about later). It should be no surprise to note that the Steelers are on the top of the RPM list, and the Lions are on the bottom. Where some teams fell in the middle might be a surprise to some fans, but that is where the stat put them.

Some of you might be thinking, “Last year is history, why are you showing this now?”

Rank	Team	W	L	Relative Performance measure
1	Steelers	15	1	37.66
2	Vikings	14	2	36.31
3	Eagles	14	2	35.77
4	Ravens	13	3	35.66
5	Giants	14	2	34.15
6	Patriots	16	0	32.43
7	Panthers	14	2	29.71
8	Packers	12	4	26.05
9	Chargers	12	4	24.94
10	Jets	10	6	19.24
11	Texans	12	4	15.72
12	Titans	11	5	15.54
13	Falcons	8	8	14.02
14	Saints	8	8	12.63
15	Cowboys	7	9	11.85
16	Dolphins	8	8	11.84
17	Cardinals	11	5	10.93
18	Bucs	5	11	5.42
19	Jaguars	7	9	-5.77
20	Colts	6	10	-8.22
21	Redskins	5	11	-9.19
22	49ers	6	10	-14.59
23	Broncos	6	10	-17.70
24	Bills	2	14	-17.76
25	Browns	5	11	-23.48
26	Bears	6	10	-24.12
27	Chiefs	1	15	-39.24
28	Raiders	2	14	-42.77
29	Bengals	2	14	-44.38
30	Rams	2	14	-46.06
31	Seahawks	2	14	-48.49
32	Lions	0	16	-60.94

Well, if you look at the chart and each team’s win-loss record, you will note that these records are not the win-loss records from 2008. What these win-loss columns show is a projection of each team for 2009 if each of the teams played their 2009 schedule at the same RPM level as 2008.

Do Not Panic! This is at best a partial look at what’s ahead. We have not made our modifications for offseason trades and drafts.

The one adjustment we talked about comes into play here. The Panthers’ 2008 RPM was not good. We adjusted them so they would fall with the leaders up at No. 7, within 8 points of the top ranked Steelers. Even with that adjustment, when we played the Panthers revised RPM against their schedule with a four percent home field adjustment, Carolina ends up with a 9-7 record. (Four percent home field adjustment is the best historical adjustment for our RPM).

Conversely, look at the No. 17 Cardinals. They had an RPM of 10.93 (the Super Bowl brought them down some). However, when we play that RPM against their 2009 schedule, we project a 12-4 record.

We could find a lot of interesting facts in this chart, but we are just going to focus on one more. The No. 13 Falcons and the No. 14 Saints are in the same division and had very similar 2008 RPMs of 12 and 14. Yet, if the No. 14 Saints play at the same level of their 2008 RPM in 2009, we project that they would have a 10-6 record while the No.13 Falcons would go to just 8-8.

Our list ranks teams based on how they perform in our stat. History has shown us that this is a pretty good way to look at which teams can ultimately win in the playoffs. Our list would be sorted much differently if we sorted teams just by projected wins.

In a nutshell, we believe that Performance Rankings are more than just opinion-based lists. Factors such as home field advantage and strength of schedule have to come into play as well if fans are going to get a real feel for how their team’s chances at success. This season we will add “Projected Win-Loss Records” to the RPM value when we publish our weekly rankings. This way readers will get a feel for relative quality from the RPM number as well as how it would appear to project to wins and losses.

(For more background on how the RPM shows itself in the Playoffs you may want to read an article we wrote during last year’s playoffs “NFL Playoff Upsets: What Upsets?”)

Should Mark Sanchez Be the New York Jets' 2009 Starter?

2009-05-03T10:31:00.000-07:00

What can Jets’ fans expect this season from rookie QB Mark Sanchez? With all the hype and exposure surrounding the “new” New York Jet, we, at PossessionPoints.com, wanted to try to keep our expectations as grounded as possible.

We decided to look at the top ten quarterbacks of last season (by QB rating) and see how their immersion into NFL play prepared them for success. Which quarterbacks got to wade into the professional football waters slowly, and which ones were thrown off the pier without much notice and expected to swim?

Here they are:

Philip Rivers – 2008 QB Rating: 105.5

In the 2004 and 2005 seasons, Rivers only appeared in two games, and he only attempted 30 passes. These stats put him in what we call the “let’s let him get used to the water slowly” category.

Chad Pennington – 2008 QB Rating: 97.4

In 2000, Pennington appeared in one game, and in 2001, he appeared in two. He attempted only 25 passes in the two years. With these numbers, Pennington is also another toe dipper in the NFL waters.

Kurt Warner – 2008 QB Rating: 96.9

Warner's NFL career started late. Although signed as a free agent out of Northern Iowa by the Packers in 1994, Warner never saw opening day. He was released in the preseason. Stints in Europe and the Arena Football League preceded his final arrival into the NFL. Even though Warner had vast football experience behind him before he put on a Rams’ uniform, Warner still played in just one game in 1998 and attempted only 11 passes. He, like Pennington and Rivers, is also a slow wader.

Drew Brees – 2008 QB Rating: 96.2

Drafted by the Chargers in 2001, Brees played in just one game and attempted 27 passes in his first season. In his second season, he played in all 16 games for the Chargers. After an impressive 4-0start, Brees ended his second season with a mediocre 8-8 record and a QB rating of only 76. The Chargers benched him during the 2003 season after he played in 11 games in favor of veteran Doug Flutie. The combined efforts of these two QBs gave San Diego a miserable 4-12 record. Brees’ QB rating sat at 67 for those 11 games. For us, Brees fell into the “you can throw him in the water, but better give him a life preserver to survive.” category. After his near drowning in San Diego, a change of scenery put Brees on the path to quarterback success.
Peyton Manning – 2008 QB Rating: 95

In 1998, Peyton Manning was drafted No. 1 for the Colts and proceeded to play 16 games while attempting 575 passes. His QB rating was the lowest of his career at 71. We categorize Manning as a quarterback who was thrown off the pier and expected to excel. While he has excelled, his first year was his worst and the Colts ended their season with a horrible 3-13 record.

Aaron Rodgers – 2008 QB Rating: 93.8

In 2005, 2006 and 2007, Rodgers played in a total of seven games. He attempted just 59 passes in those three seasons prior to his starting in 2008 in place of the relocated Brett Favre. Rodgers is definitely another toe dipper in the NFL quarterback pool. Rodgers is like many NFL quarterbacks who appear to thrive after two-to-three seasons of sitting. .

Matt Schaub – 2008 QB Rating: 92.7

In 2004, 2005 and 2006, Schaub attempted a total of just 161 passes for the Falcons. In 2008 alone, he attempted 380 for the Texans. Schaub, a three-year backup QB to Michael Vick, is another example of teaching a QB to swim before putting him into action.

Tony Romo – 2008 QB Rating: 91.4

Signed as an undrafted free agent with the Cowboys in 2003, Romo did not throw a pass for them until three years later in 2006. Yes, Romo only held a clipboard for his first three years, but his slow immersion gave him the confidence and skills to succeed.

Jeff Garcia – 2008 QB Rating: 90.2

Does anyone not appreciate Jeff Garcia’s trek to the NFL? Garcia played in Canada for four years prior to his NFL experience. In his first NFL season, he did play in 13 games and attempted 375 passes. We really have a tough time putting him in the “just throw him in the water and see if he stays afloat” category as he seems to have swam pretty well up North. So, we are going to say that his four years in Canada is the equivalent of the three years as an NFL backup.

Matt Cassel – 2008 QB Rating: 89.4

Our vote for “Cinderella Quarterback”. As a backup from 2005-2007, Cassel attempted just 45 passes in three years. We all know about 2008 and what fate dealt to both Tom Brady and Matt Cassel. For Cassel, who also served as the backup at USC, he might have easily assumed that his NFL uniform would always include a pair of headphones and a clipboard. However, he learned well in those three-plus years and proved himself when given the opportunity. We will mercifully put him in the toe dipper category, but to be honest, he probably falls more into the “stuck on the beach and watching everyone else have a good time” category.
That’s the top ten from 2008. If you notice, the big rookies who made all the headlines last year are not in that list. So, how did they perform?

While not in the top 10, Matt Ryan came close and ranked No. 11 with a QB rating of 87.7. Impressive for a rookie who we feel literally had the fate of the Falcons faithful on his young shoulders. His coach had little choice but to start him from the beginning, since they also traded away Matt Schaub. However, head coach Mike Smith did give Ryan breathing room by supplying him with a copious number of running plays especially in the earlier part of the season.

Not in the top ten and sitting at 22 with a QB rating of 80.3 is Joe Flacco of the Ravens. In the preseason, few thought Flacco would be the starter, but injuries and strange virus that sidelined Troy Smith, put Flacco from wader to jumper. Give him credit for accomplishing what he did. The Ravens formidable defense was Flacco’s life preserver.

What we take from our little study is this: If Rex Ryan follows conventional QB development philosophy, he will start veteran Kellen Clemens and leave Sanchez carrying a clipboard for a year or two. Ryan may believe that he can have the same success with Sanchez as the Falcons have with Ryan and the Ravens have with Flacco. Hopefully, somewhere in his coaching strategy is the knowledge that even the most gifted rookie quarterback cannot carry a team.

In our view, the Jets’ success or lack thereof is more dependent on Rex Ryan than it is on Sanchez. If Ryan does start Sanchez and puts him in a position where he makes mistakes that cost the Jets wins, we would put the blame on Rex Ryan and his staff..

One more note, you may ask why we focused on Sanchez and the Jets instead of on Matt Stafford and the Lions. The answer is simply this: The Lions can only go up from that 0-16 record. Stafford could start, without setting the NFL on fire, and still improve the Lions. We think Stafford should be fine as long as Detroit’s coaching staff keeps him away from excessive sacks which could affect his confidence and future performances.

Optimism Justified for Minnesota Vikings

2009-04-29T16:25:00.000-07:00

At this time of year, all teams are optimistic about the upcoming season and why not? Off season trades and the NFL draft infuse new blood into sometimes tired rosters giving even the most desperate teams a feeling of hope. While we at PossessionPoints.com admire the positive attitudes that all teams have, we believe that there are some teams, more than others, who deserve to hold on to those high hopes and optimism. For us, the Minnesota Vikings are one such team.

The Vikings are coming off a season where they ranked ninth in offense, fourth in defense and fifth overall according to the PossessionPoints statistic. While our rankings may differ from the traditional total yardage-type rankings, they do display a high correlation to winning. For example, we projected the 2008 Vikings would go 9-7 and take the division title. We were a little off in that they won the division with a 10-6 record.

Based on those PossessionPoints rankings, we would have expected to see the Vikings work on offense first in the draft. So, we were not taken aback when they did exactly that drafting wide receiver Percy Harvin from Florida and offensive tackle Phil Loadholt from Oklahoma. These selections, coupled with their upgrade at backup QB with the acquisition of Sage Rosenfels (maybe starter after preseason), have prompted us to make an upward adjustment of at least five percent to Minnesota’s offensive numbers from last year.

For reference purposes, a five percent adjustment either positive or negative is considered a small adjustment in PossessionPoints. An average adjustment would range between 10 and 15 percent up or down, and a significant adjustment would be 20 percent or more in either direction.

Minnesota’s three remaining draft picks went to the defensive side of the ball, and we are not yet sure if they got any impact players. With this in mind, we are most likely to forecast that their defense will be about the same as last year. There is certainly room for improvement with the Vikings in defense since they were 22 percent behind the league- leading Ravens. However, given that they ranked fourth in defense last season by our statistic, an unchanged forecast is not all that bad. Even if they remain unchanged in PossessionPoints, they should still easily be a top-10 defense next season.

There is another factor that gives support to our belief that the Vikings should be a tough team again in 2009. By our stat from last season’s performances, the Vikings have the second easiest schedule in 2009. The difficulty is pretty balanced between home and road games as Minnesota has the fifth easiest home and the fifth easiest road schedules. (Having the Lions twice on their schedule does help).

We are long way from making our adjustments to all the teams in the league, and when we do complete the adjustments, the picture may change drastically. For instance, a significant upward adjustment in the Lions’ projected performance could spell trouble for teams who have to face a new Detroit team twice. As we get closer to the season, we will draw more a more concrete picture. As of now, our outlook for the Vikings in 2009 remains positive and hopeful.

Will Pioli, Haley and Cassel be the "Perfect Storm" for the Kansas City Chiefs?

2009-04-23T14:41:00.000-07:00

Is a Perfect Storm circling over Kansas City? Well, if you are a Chiefs’ fan, you are hoping that the storm not only hovers, but makes landfall as well.
In the upcoming season, Kansas City will experience a triple force: a new general manager, a new head coach, and a new franchise quarterback. For many experts, a change in one of these positions sends up a red flag, but we at PossessionPoints.com , think that this triple whammy may spark the beginning of a new and dynamic Chiefs’ team.

It is true that only Matt Cassel has actual experience in his new job. As starting quarterback for the New England Patriots, Cassel proved his physical and mental prowess when he stepped in for Tom Brady last season.

Scott Pioli has a great deal of experience in the front offices around the league including stints in Cleveland, Baltimore and New York, but this is his first GM position. With that said, Pioli was a key factor in building the Patriots into the dominating force that ruled the NFL in recent years.

Although new to head coaching, Todd Haley has paid his dues in the coaching world holding positions with the Bears, Jets, Cowboys and Cardinals. Haley was instrumental in all teams making the playoffs while he was with them. His most recent success came as offensive coordinator for the Cardinals who, as we all know, got to the Super Bowl.

Why do we bring this all up? Because we love historical parallels, and we try to learn from them. In 2008, the Dolphins also made the risky triple change when they brought in Bill Parcells as head of football operations, Tony Sparano as head coach, and Chad Pennington as starting QB.

When we did our Preseason Preview issue for the 2008 season, we adjusted our estimated performance of the Dolphins up by 10 percent which is generous for us, but not outlandish. The result of this 10 percent was that we still expected Miami to have another losing record.

However, in our 2008 Preseason Preview we also said; “Actually, the computer does give hope if the Dolphins can improve their performance 15 percent more on offense and defense. If we up their improvement to 25 percent in each category, their projected record actually vaults all the way to 10-6. Could the Dolphins be a team -- we color “Red” -- that makes the playoffs?”

We didn’t expect the Dolphins would improve on both offense and defense by 25 percent. That is an exceptional improvement. Truth be told, Miami improved by 30 percent on offense and 28% on defense, and as you know they went 11-5 and made the playoffs. In hindsight, maybe we should not have been so stingy with our upwards adjustment. We didn’t take the arrival of their “perfect storm” as seriously as we should have.

The parallels between the 2008 Dolphins and 2009 Chiefs do not end with their personnel changes. For example, there is the non-football coincidence in that Bill Parcells is Scott Pioli’s father-in-law. (Can you imagine the holiday dinners in that family? We’re guessing football is a big part of that table conversation.) Although this is an unscientific statement to make, we think that some of Bill Parcells’ magic has to rub off on Pioli.

There are other more technical parallels as well. The 2007 Dolphins ranked 20th in PossessionPoints offense with a 79 (the higher the number the better). The 2008 Chiefs ranked 24th in PossessionPoints offense with an 83. This is very close statistically.

The 2007 Dolphins ranked 32nd in PossessionPoints defense with a 122 (the lower the number the better) while the 2008 Chiefs ranked 29th in PossessionPoints defense with a122.

To give you an idea of the significance of the number range, the 2007 Patriots were the best PossessionPoints offense in the last two seasons with a value of 163 (about double the Dolphins / Chiefs number), so both teams would need to improve by 100 percent to get to the Pats’ level. The 2008 Ravens were the best defense in the last two seasons with a value of 54 which is less than half of the value posted by the Dolphins and Chiefs in 2007 and 2008.

Well, no one owns the crystal ball that says for sure that the Chiefs will transform themselves into a playoff team just as the Dolphins did. However, history can and often does repeat itself, and that perfect storm that landed in Miami in 2008, could very well be making its way to Kansas City this year.

2009 NFL Mock Draft: composite of experts

2009-04-19T19:42:00.000-07:00

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/158602-2009-nfl-mock-draft-composite-of-experts

2009 NFL Schedule: Carolina Panthers Difficult, Arizona Cardinals Easy

2009-04-15T18:42:00.000-07:00

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/156792-2009-nfl-schedule-carolina-panthers-difficult-arizona-cardinals-easy

Do NFL Stat Leaders Equal Team Wins?

2009-04-15T06:07:00.000-07:00

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/156218-do-nfl-stat-leaders-equal-team-wins

NFL Draft: What High Draft Picks Turn into Stars?

2009-04-09T16:55:00.000-07:00

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/153700-nfl-draft-what-high-draft-picks-turn-into-stars

NFL Draft: Need Line Help? Don't Wait

2009-04-07T20:17:00.000-07:00

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/152466-nfl-draft-need-line-help-dont-wait-until-late

NFL Mock Draft: Selections 1 to 32

2009-04-05T10:15:00.000-07:00

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/151117-nfl-mock-draft-selections-1-to-32

Can the Draft Rescue the Eagles' Off Season

2009-03-28T11:15:00.000-07:00

Yes, believe it or not, the NFL draft is once again within our midst. The months of conjecture, hypothesizing and just plain guessing are coming to a close. Before all the deals and picks are made, we, at PossessionPoints.com thought we would add our own data to the mix over the next few weeks to see what holes the teams are looking to fill.

Before we look to the draft, we like to look at a team’s last-season PossessionPoints performance to assess their strengths and weaknesses. Last season, the Eagles were a good PossessionPoints team both offensively and defensively, and we were not the least bit surprised that the Eagles got to the NFC championship game as a wildcard. In fact, our Preseason Preview issue last year had the Eagles heading to the Super Bowl.

In PossessionPoints, we color-code outstanding performances in green and miserable performances in red. During the 2008 season, the Eagles attained nine green offensive performances and eight green defensive performances. This was balanced against just three red offensive and three red defensive performances. So, despite all the melodrama surrounding the McNabb benching and other distractions, the Eagles did prove to be a very good team.

According to our proprietary stat and data, if the Eagles left things as they were, any addition to the offense or defense would have been an asset for the team even though Philadelphia did not cry out for any major changes on either side of the ball. However, let’s look at what the Eagles have done in the off season which, we admit, has changed our view. The Eagles have lost to free agency the defensive leader who was the spirit behind the team, Brian Dawkins. Also gone are running back Correll Buckhalter, tight end L.J. Smith, safety Sean Considine and tackle Tra Thomas. Technically a free agent and also a potential loss for the Eagles is tackle John Runyon.

To compensate for these real and potential losses, Philadelphia has signed Tackle Stacy Andrews from the Bengals, Defensive Backs Sean Jones from the Browns and Rashad Baker from the Raiders as well as Running Back Leonard Weaver from the Seahawks. These "non-standout” NFL names from ‘’non-standout” NFL teams do not inspire confidence in the Eagles’ loyal fans who are still reeling from the loss of Dawkins.

So, we now see the draft as a place where the Eagles must look if they are to fix their broken wings. Fortunately for the Eagles in 2009, they have 11 picks overall in the seven rounds and four picks in the top 100. We would like to see the Eagles address the running back, tight end and wide receiver positions on offense, but knowing the Eagles, we would not be surprised to see them draft a lineman before anybody else.

The top-rated tight end, Brandon Pettigrew, out of Oklahoma State is 6’6” and 263 pounds. We know McNabb loves throwing to his tight ends and this guy could be quite the target. He is almost certain to be around when the Eagles pick at 21. The Eagles could gamble that he will be there at 28, but that gamble may cost them. If by some chance we see that University of Mississippi’s Michael Oher is still there at 21, we would not be disappointed if Philadelphia selected this offensive tackle. In selecting Pettigrew or Oher, The Eagles may have to take the chance that they would strike gold like the Bears and Texans did last year with Matt Forte or Steve Slayton, if they wait to pick a running back with either their 53rd or 85th pick.
One running back we see that might be gold with a later pick is Rashad Jennings from Liberty University – a non-football power school. We all know the Eagles love these schools, and sometimes these picks pan out. Just look at Brian Westbrook who is a product of basketball powerhouse Villanova.

On the defensive side, Philadelphia may be able to draft someone who has a younger body than Brian Dawkins even though that body will not replace the emotional leadership that Dawkins provided. We can see the Eagles going for a safety selection with their 53rd or 85th pick. Some of the prime candidates who could be around then would be William Moore out of Missouri, Patrick Chung out of Oregon or Chip Vaughn, known to be a big-hitting enforcer, out of Wake Forest.

If Moore is available, he would be our favorite pick, but if not, we would like them to see if they could get Vaughn at 85 or later.

NFL Upsets! What Upsets?

2009-01-14T18:13:00.000-08:00

Pick up most sports pages and you would definitely think that this year was the “year of the upsets” in the NFL. However, if you followed the Performance Rankings or RPM of PossessionPoints.com, you would have seen a completely opposite view. Why the big difference?

First of all, the Performance Rankings of PossessionPoints.com are based solely on our proprietary in-game statistic which on a game-for-game basis indicates winners at a very good rate. No opinion or personal viewpoints go into these rankings.

By season end, there are enough games played that the average Performance Rankings are a great indicator of teams that can win in the playoffs. Thus, our company mantra: if you have a good PossessionPoints team, you have a good team!

So, we are not the least bit surprised that in our week 17 rankings, the No. 1, No. 3and No. 4 teams are among the four teams still alive. If anybody knows of a traditional “opinion-based” Power Ranking that can say that, please let us know.

We said at the beginning of this article that there have been no upsets, and we guess if you just go by our ranking chart, we could force ourselves to find possibly one. The No. 16 Cardinals beat the No. 13 Falcons in the first week of the playoffs. That outcome could have been seen as an upset as that was the only time that a lower RPM team beat a higher RPM. However, if you look at an RPM of 12.66 vs. an RPM of 9.57, the upset is minimal at best. (See chart below)

As for the rest of the games, we saw nothing earth shattering at all: the No. 1 Eagles beat the No. 5 Vikings and the No. 2 Giants. The No. 3 Ravens beat the No. 12 Dolphins and the No. 10 Titans. The No. 16 Cardinals followed up their “upset” victory over the Falcons with a win over the No. 18 Panthers. The No. 7 Chargers beat the No. 20 Colts, but then they lost to the No. 4 Steelers.

So, other than a mild upset by the Cardinals, we think the playoffs have been pretty true to form.

Below is a reprint of the PossessionPoints.com regular season-ending Performance Rankings. We took a lot of heat having a team that just squeaked into the playoffs at No. 1 and another No. 6 seed wild card team at No. 3, but guess what? We are smiling a bit now.

The current rankings on our site include the two rounds of playoffs, the Eagles remain No. 1, but the Giants dropped to No. 4 with the Ravens and Steelers at Nos. 2 and 3, respectively. They are less than a single RPM point apart; however, by our measure that game is a real toss-up. The Cardinals have had a post season RPM over 30and have moved up to No. 14 from their season ending No. 16.

If the Cardinals have another +30 or better PossessionPoints performance they could earn the first “real” upset of the postseason.

NFL Copycats: Is Smash Mouth Next?

2008-12-31T07:24:00.000-08:00

There is no doubt that the four NFL teams with playoff byes have had much success on the ground which makes PossessionPoints.com
wonder if “Smash Mouth” tactics are going to spread around the league like the Wildcat formation did this season. For anyone who does not know, a Smash Mouth offense is a traditional offense where Tight Ends and Receivers are used as blockers. This tactic leaves open the possibility for some passing as the defense gets pulled to the line to stop the run. Smash Mouth is also known as “three yards and cloud of dust football” or Woody Hayes and Vince Lombardi-style football.

A year ago we thought that rushing football was on its way to being an afterthought with the success of teams like the Patriots and Colts who exploited their passing offense with Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. Teams such as the Saints and Texans tried to emulate the success of the Colts and Patriots by building a high-power offense making running and defense a lesser priority. Last year, defensive-dominated teams such as the Ravens and Bears also seemed to have an “off” year.

However, this year, many teams have switched back to running / defense-dominated philosophies. The Giants have two, 1,000-yard Rushing Backs in Brandon Jacobs (1089 yds) and Derrick Ward (1025 yards). They also have #7 overall defense. The Panthers have two quality Running Backs in DeAngelo Williams (1515 yards) and rookie Jonathan Stewart (836 yards). In the AFC, the Titans feature the duo of LenDale White (773 yards) and rookie Chris Johnson (1228 yards). The Steelers have long been thought of as a run first team. This reputation dates way back to the days of Chuck Noll, known as “Ground Chuck” who built his team on the running game. Unfortunately, this year the Steelers had a tough time keeping their Backs healthy which resulted in lower rushing numbers for their top Backs, Willie Parker (791 yards) and Mewelde Moore (588 yards). It is interesting to note that the teams who used their run to set up their pass game this season, all have first round playoff byes.

Will this be the next theme that is copied around the NFL? Is the firing of the 49ers’ Mike Martz, who in his time with the Rams was known as the “The Father of the Greatest Show on Turf”, a sign of things to come? Martz was known for his complicated passing tactics, but when the defense-oriented Mike Singletary came on as 49ers head coach, the styling of Martz became an albatross around the 49ers neck. Is this why Bill Cowher, who followed the philosophy of Chuck Noll in Pittsburgh, is the hot commodity this week for teams seeking out new coaches?

For this season, the Colts, Eagles and Cardinals would appear to be the teams carrying the “high flying” reputations into the Playoffs. But the Colts have always had a quality back as a compliment to their pass, be it Edgerrin James in years past or Joseph Addai today. The Eagles are best when Brian Westbrook is healthy and can be both runner and receiver in what is usually a pass dominated offense. We expect these teams will continue their aerial assaults forward into 2009, but will their high flying attacks get more grounded?

Watching coaching changes is one way to see if philosophy around the league is shifting; watching the draft is another. Looking at the top prospects such as Chris (Beanie) Wells of Ohio State or Knowshan Moreno of University of Georgia might not give a hint as to coaches’ philosophy since these players would go early in the draft no matter what, but seeing where the next wave of Running Backs go in the draft is another story. Where will LeSean McCoy (Pitt) and Jevon Ringer (Michigan St.) go? Further evidence of a philosophy shift would be apparent if teams look to the sub division schools for Running Backs much like the Ravens did last year with Joe Flacco trying to get a QB. Will the stock of Rashad Jennings of Liberty University rise in the draft this year?

We ask a lot of questions at PossessionPoints.com because we are always searching and checking for stats that produce winners. Our flagship stat, the PossessionPoint, has time of possession as a key component, and time of possession helped dramatically the high flying Patriots in 2007 becoming the top team. However, Defense plays an important role in our Performance Measure which explains why the Eagles, Giants, Steelers, Ravens and Vikings were our top 5 in 2008. In fact, what we like best about our PossessionPoints stat, is that it does not favor an pass offensive strategy or defense-oriented strategy. Instead, it measures execution and success.

The 2009 season will be an education for all fans. We might watch teams known for their offensive skills suddenly face the challenges of making defense their number one priority. Look at the Houston Texans who this week fired their Defensive Coordinator and two other members of the defensive coaching staff. There is a change in the wind and that change may be on the ground and not in the air.

Saints: Number One Offense – So What!

2008-12-18T18:14:00.000-08:00

If you watch the Saints vs. Lions game, no doubt you will hear these words that have been spoken all year: the Saints have the number one Offense in the NFL. Well, this is true if you measure Offensive effectiveness in the traditional way as total yards or points per game. If the Saints are the number one Offense in the League, then it is no surprise that Drew Brees is also ranked the top passer in terms of yards. Well, the Saints may be ranked number one, and their QB may have the admiration of every sports announcer in the world, but guess what? It does not matter because the Saints also have a 7-7 record which means they don’t get to go to any playoff games unless they go as spectators. How can this be?

Well, let’s examine the yards and points stats. This traditional analysis can easily be skewed by game situations. If you look at the Saints’ games this season, on the surface it seems as if the Saints lost a lot of close games. However, let’s look at some of their losses:

In Week 3: New Orleans fell behind 21-3. The Saints rebounded but finally lost 34-32 to the Broncos. Brees threw for 421 yards.

In Week 5: The Saints were down 20-10 in their game against the Vikings. They managed to stage a comeback and take the lead, but relinquished it again and lost 30-27. Brees had 330 yards passing.

In Week 7: The Saints lost 30-7 to the Panthers, and Brees still had 231 yards.

In Week 10: The Saints were down 27-6 at one point in their game against the Falcons. At the end, the Saints lost to the Falcons by a score of 34-20. In this game, there were two, late "so what" drives of 80 and 69 yards which made the game seem closer than it was. These “so what” points helped to pad Brees’ stats as well. He threw for a total of 422 yards.

In Week 13: The Saints were down 20-10 to the Bucs in the 4th quarter. Then, another late game rally allowed them to tie the game. Again, that rally was short lived, and the Saints could not hold on. They ended up losing by a score of 23-20. Brees still threw for 296 yards.

In Week 15: The Saints were down 21-7 to the Bears. Again, they took the lead but lost in OT by a score of 27-24. Brees had 232 yards.

Brees and the Saints piled up the yards this season even though they lost seven games. It might be safe to say that some of the yards the Saints posted were not due to a stellar Offense but rather due to their opponents’ Defense who may have relaxed a bit after securing large leads. The Saints are no different than any other team in that moving the ball or getting in the end zone may not be as difficult a task when they are on the losing end of a lopsided score. Games like week 3 and 10 illustrate this fact. The Saints were losing by large margins in both of these games, but Brees’ combined passing yardage in these games totaled 843 yards. His total passing yardage for this season so far is 4332.

Should we assume that New Orleans’ Defense should bear the blame for the Saints not making the playoffs? Well, their Defense is 20th in yards and 25th in scoring. The Defense must be the reason why New Orleans is left out of postseason play. Who could win with such a lackluster Defense, right?

Well, before we condemn the Defense, let’s go back to 2006 and look at the last time the Saints led the NFL in Offense. In that year, the Colts were third in Offense and their Defense ranked 21st in yards and 23rd in scoring. The Colts went 12-4 and won the Super Bowl. It seems winning with those kinds of Defensive stats is possible. By the way, that year the Saints’ Defense was ranked 11th and they went 10-6 and got to the NFC championship.

The difference between the Saints of 2008 and Colts of 2006 may boil down to this: the Colts’ Defense did not have impressive numbers because the Colts frequently had big leads which at times they surrendered thus allowing their opposition to pile up the stats. The Saints of 2008 have had some big games, but they have also had games in which they fell way behind forcing them into a rapid catch-up mode. In some of these games, the Saints actually did manage to crawl back into the game only to give up the ground they gained to lose.

So, we wonder: what is the advantage of being the number one team in yards and points if that team cannot win? As Herm Edwards said when he was Head Coach of the Jets “You play to win the game.” Stats without winning seem shallow. That is why PossessionPoints.com is always seeking significance in statistics. We constantly work on correlating stats to winning, and if we can’t correlate the stat to winning, we tend to not think that much of the stat.

NFL Big Games for Week 16

2008-12-17T18:41:00.000-08:00

We are winding down and heading into the final two weeks of the regular NFL season. For some teams, this is their do-or-die week. This is also the week in both Conferences where home field advantage will most likely be determined by this week’s results. We are going to talk about these two games first.

In the NFC, the 11-3 Panthers travel to the Meadowlands and take on the 11-3 Giants. While both of these teams are certainly going to the playoffs, the Giants would like to do things a bit differently than they did last year and actually play their playoff games at home. The Panthers and the Giants both feature strong running attacks, so this should be a classic, old-school football game.

While the Panthers are building momentum, the Giants seem to be losing it as they have lost their last two games. New York definitely needs to turn on the heat if they want to experience the same euphoria in the playoffs that they felt last year.
In the AFC, the 11-3 Steelers travel to the 12-2 Titans. The Titans have had some serious injuries on their defensive line, and much like the Giants, Tennessee needs to bring back the passion they had in the earlier games of the season to carry them through the playoffs, and that might mean playing all the stars even though a playoff spot is secure.

Another big game is the 9-5 Ravens traveling to the 9-5 Cowboys. This inter-conference matchup may well mean that the loser does not make the playoffs. In the preseason, few expected the Ravens to get this far, but many considered the Cowboys to be a favorite for postseason play. However, the way the Ravens have played this year, hopes are high in Baltimore and beyond. Dallas has managed to sidestep their personal team turmoil to win last week and keep them alive, and they have to continue to pull together if they are going to go far in the playoffs or even make the playoffs.

The final two games we want to highlight are two of the games that have significance in the NFC wildcard race. The 9-5 Falcons travel to take on the NFC North-leading 9-5 Vikings. The Vikings could lose and still make the playoffs, but if the Falcons lose, they open the door for the Eagles to take their place in the playoffs.
The last game we want to talk about is the Eagles vs. the 7-7 Redskins in Washington. The Redskins have no chance to make the playoffs, but if they beat the Eagles, they will certainly put a damper or a soaking on the Philadelphia playoff bid.

Don’t be surprised to see non-playoff contenders happily play the role of spoiler to teams trying to get a spot in postseason play. Every year, a team with a good chance at the playoffs seems to lose their shot because of a spoiler team who wants to go out with a bang.

NFL Performance Rankings Week 15

2008-12-17T17:13:00.000-08:00

Last week, we noted the obvious fact that the “Performance Rankings” of PossessionPoints.com are far different from the traditional opinion-based Power Rankings that you read about in many other places. For proof of this, you need to look no further than the number 1 spot on our Rankings, which is held by the Philadelphia Eagles for the second week in a row. How can this be when the Eagles have an uphill fight just to make the playoffs? Well, we would like to take a little time this week to explain how the Eagles can occupy this coveted spot.

At PossessionPoints.com, we color code a team’s Offensive, Defensive and Net performances (the difference between the Offensive and Defensive performances). We use Green to denote “good” performances; Yellow to symbolize “average” performances; and Red to signal “poor” performances. The colors change at specific values, and we correlate a winning percentage to each of these values. For instance a “Green” Offensive performance wins about 75% of the time (this is based on the data we have kept over the past 3 seasons.) A “Green” Defensive Performance wins over 85% of the time while a “Green” Net wins over 90% of the time. Our Performance Rankings (Relative Performance Measure – RPM) are based on the Net measure which as we say correlates over 90% of the time to winning in individual games.

So, how did a team that has only won 57% of their games wind up with an average Net that is Green? Looking at Philadelphia’s individual games is the easiest way to explain this. In their losses, the Eagles’ Offense and Defense took turns causing them to lose. The Eagles had three ‘Red’ Defensive performances which resulted in losses for all three of these games. A typical team will win 25% of the Red performances. The Eagles also had two Red Offensive performances and lost one of these games and tied one of these games. A typical team will win 15% of these Red Offensive performances. What is unique about the Eagles is that none of their poor Offensive and Defensive performances occurred in the same games. Compare this to the Giants who have had six Red Defensive performances and lost only three of these games. In the games they won, their Offense picked up the slack. In the three games the Giants lost, they recorded their only three Red Offensive performances of the year.

So, most “good” teams will on occasion have a bad game on both sides of the ball and lose those games. The Eagles have not shared that pattern. Their “bad” performances on Offense and Defense have occurred in different games causing them to pile up the losses. When they had a Red Offensive performance, their Defense was Green in the game they tied and Yellow in the game they lost. Statistically, both a Green and Yellow Defensive performance should have been able to overcome the Red Offense. The Eagles failed to do that.

In their three Red Defensive Performance games, the Eagles had two Green Offensive performances and one Yellow Offensive performance. Again, they lost all three of these games which other teams would have turned into wins.

We have spent a lot of time explaining the Eagles this week, so we will just quickly summarize the other top five teams on our Performance Chart: The Vikings, Ravens, Steelers and Giants round out the top 5.

On to the bottom 5. It is no surprise to find Cincinnati in our bottom 5 at number 30 since by our RPM measure they have had the toughest schedule in the league. Next week, we are going to talk about how each team’s strength of schedule has affected their performances this season.
The other 4 teams in our bottom 5 are the Rams, Lions, Seahawks and Raiders. These teams’ schedules have been no picnic either.

A final note, if the Eagles do manage to make the playoffs, the other teams in the NFL better take them seriously because they do have the capability to beat any team in the NFL if all their units show up to play.

The 4th Down Gamble – Think Twice

2008-12-11T15:07:00.000-08:00

Pure statistics say that a team’s success rate to convert a 4th down to a 1st down or a score is about 50% when that 4th down is for short yardage. However, NFL teams “go for it” only about 20% of the time. A few coaches such as Bill Belichick and Jack Del Rio have developed a “reputation” as mavericks who toss caution to the wind and take the chance on 4th down more often than their coaching colleagues. While these coaches may opt to keep their punting teams off the field more frequently, their decision to go on 4th down is still below 50 percent. Why?

Well, PossessionPoints.com loves stats, and in fact, our business was built on the premise that our in-game stat can help a coach evaluate when it is a good time to take that 50-50 risk. But we are not in the same camp as some of the other stat analysts who think coaches should be going for it on 4th down more often. Stats can help determine when it is a good time to take a chance, but stats do not capture the major emotional factor in football that occurs when two teams are on the line trying to prevent or achieve that all important and possibly game-turning 1st down play.

When a team “goes for it” on 4th down, play-by-play announcers usually offer comments such as “The coach is showing great confidence in his Offense keeping them out there to pick up those one or two yards.” That may be a true analysis, but anyone who has ever played a competitive sport knows that it is the Defense who makes or breaks these momentous plays. When a coach keeps the Offense out on the field, he is sending a clear message to the opposing Defense that says, “We do not respect your ability to stop us.” Some Defenses may take this stance as a challenge; others see it as an insult. Either way, a Defense is going to be fired up with adrenaline pumping, and they will do whatever it takes to stop a 4th down conversion especially if that conversion will result in a touchdown.

Let us examine some recent games where a 4th down conversion came into play. In this season’s Minnesota – Chicago game in week 13, the Bears held a 7-3 lead in the first half and were down on the Minnesota goal line. The Bears had 3rd and goal at the one-yard line but were unsuccessful at getting in the end zone. On 4th and 1, Coach Lovie Smith had two options at his disposal. He could have kicked a field goal (a distance shorter than an extra point where the success rate this year has exceeded 99%) to take a 7 point lead or go for the touchdown and an 11 point lead. A logical person might have argued “What is the worst scenario that could happen in this situation?” The answer: the Bears fail in their attempt to score the touchdown, and the Vikings get the ball in the worst possible field position for them at their own one-yard line. Well, Smith chose to forego the three almost certain points and opt for a touchdown play. Unfortunately, for Chicago, the Vikings’ pride did not share his enthusiasm for a touchdown. Instead, they showed off some of their own talent and stopped the Bears in their tracks.

Okay, how bad could this be? The Bears surmised they would return the Defensive favor and possibly force the Vikings into a Safety and take the two points. After all, that is almost a field goal – right?
With this somewhat dire situation facing the Vikings’ Offense, most coaches might have decided to put in their short yardage Offense and try to move the ball off the goal line into calmer waters. However, the Vikings decided to let their Offense feed off the adrenaline rush of their Defense and instead called for a deep sideline pass. The Receiver managed to get behind the Defender, and lo and behold caught the Quarterback’s pass and sprinted for a 99-yard touchdown. Suddenly, in two plays, the game went from what could have been a certain Bears 10-3 lead to a Vikings 10-7 lead. The Vikings never looked back and went on to trounce the Bears 34-14.

This same week, the Jags found themselves behind in a game and their prospects looked bleak. Jacksonville tried not once, but twice on the same drive, to convert a 4th down. It was early in the 4th quarter, and the Jags were down 16-3, so the time seemed right to gamble. The Jags pushed their luck and succeeded in their first attempt which was at the Texans’ 33-yard line, a plausible field goal distance. They gave up three points, but they had a chance to move the ball further toward a seven-point score. However, that 1st down victory was short lived at best. Within seconds, the Jags found themselves in the same 50-50, 4th down scenario on the Texans’ five-yard line. Now, here the Jags have a situation where you have thrown down the gauntlet to your opponents and came out the victor once. When they threw down that gauntlet a second time, The Texans’ pride charged forward, and this emotional surge paid off. Jacksonville failed to convert the second 4th down again which was at a field position that was a virtual certainty for a field goal. Would a field goal have changed the fate of the Jaguars? Who knows? But a field goal might have taken the wind out of the sails of the Texans and made this game closer.

Next time you are watching a game and you want a coach to just “Go For It” and forego his “over conservative” approach, think of these two situations. PossessionPoints.com absolutely concurs that sometimes a coach does “need to” go for it on 4th down. The original PossessionPoints stat was founded as a tool to help coaches make that 4th and short decision. It came into existence because of a late game 4th down punt decision where the team that punted (the Eagles in the 2006 playoff game against the Saints) never got the ball back and lost the game. That was a “need to” situation. In general, we would say taking the risk on 4th down should be more along the lines of the traditional approach have long practiced: take the chance only when absolutely necessary.

NFL Big Games Week 15

2008-12-10T17:58:00.000-08:00

There are several big games this week, and hopefully, they will be good games to watch. The first one that PossessionPoints.com wants to highlight is a battle for the AFC North. The 10-3 Steelers are taking on the 9-4 Ravens. While neither of these teams is likely to miss the playoffs, the winner of this game would be in prime position to win the Division and perhaps earn a first-round bye.

The next game on the highlight list is the game between the top two teams in the NFC East. The 11-2 Giants, who have already locked up the Division, will travel to Dallas to take on the 8-5 Cowboys. Obviously, the Cowboys need this game more than the Giants. The Giants are all but certain to have a first-round bye while the Cowboys are not even guaranteed a playoff spot yet. To make matters more dire for the Cowboys, the 7-5-1 are very close on their heels at only a half-game behind. Another team wanting that last wildcard spot are the 8-5 Falcons.

This brings us to our third big game which features the Falcons who are hosting their Division rivals, the 9-4 Bucs. The Bucs are fresh off a Monday night loss to the Carolina Panthers which puts them one game behind the Panthers for the Division but still one game ahead of everyone else in the Conference for a wildcard spot. The Bucs do not want to lose this cushion.

The final big game for this week features two teams battling to keep their somewhat slim playoff chances alive. The 7-6 Bears are hosting the 7-6 Saints. The loser of this game can begin thinking about their draft strategy and can forget about their playoff strategy. The winner of this game still needs a great deal of help to make the playoffs, but their hopes will most likely still be alive after this week is over.

It is becoming crunch time and the NFL excitement is growing. We hope you all enjoy this week’s games!

NFL Performance Rankings Week 14

2008-12-10T17:18:00.000-08:00

One glance at our Chart and you will know that our rankings are much different than the traditional Power Rankings. Why is this? Unlike other Charts, our Chart contains no opinion or subjective criteria. Our Performance Rankings are based solely on our PossessionPoints.com in-game statistic.

Number One on our list are the Philadelphia Eagles. Yes, we see your jaw dropping and we feel your disbelief. Trust us, if there were any subjectivity in our Chart, the Eagles would not be sitting at Number One. However, with that said, we have to give the Eagles their due. They have performed in their games well enough to win more than their record would indicate. As proof of the fact that they are good enough to beat anyone in the NFL, the Eagles beat the team last week that was Number One in our Chart and most Performance Charts. They beat the New York Giants in New York. While the score may have appeared close, the Eagles actually dominated the Giants on both side of the ball. The Eagles still have an uphill battle to get into the playoffs, but if they are able to get there, they could be a tough team to beat.

A quick run through of the top five behind the Eagles: The Giants who slipped to Number Two; the Ravens at Number Three; the Vikings at Number Four; and the Steelers at Number Five.

It is worthy to note as well that the Titans have moved a bit up the Chart from Number Eight last week to Number Six this week. Although the Titans have a 12-1 record, they have not been able to amass the PossessionPoints needed to catapult them into the Top Five, but they are close.

Jumping down to the bottom Five are teams that have held onto these positions for a while and are all mathematically eliminated from playoff spots. At Number 28 in our Chart are the 3-10 Raiders; at 29 are the 0-13 Lions who have flirted with the possibility of getting their first win in the past few weeks; at Number 30 are the 2-11 Seahawks; at 31 are the 1-11-1 Bengals and at 32 are the 2-11 Rams.

NFL Big Games for Week 14

2008-12-03T19:03:00.000-08:00

This week there are three games PossessionPoints.com wishes to highlight. The biggest game in our viewpoint is the Monday night game between the Bucs and Panthers. While it looks as if both of these teams will make the playoffs, this game could well decide who wins the NFC South Division as both of these teams are now tied with a record of 9-3. The winner of this Division will also most likely get a first round bye, and the loser most likely a wildcard spot

The second big game this week is between the Giants and the Eagles at the Meadowlands. This game is truly the Eagles’ last shot to get themselves back into playoff contention. We think the lights are all but out for Philadelphia this season, but a loss here could mathematically eliminate them. The Giants have little to gain with a win this week as they have a virtual lock on the Division and a first round bye. So, obviously this game is more important for the Eagles.

The third big game is an interconference game between the Cowboys and Steelers as both these teams have winning records and are in tight races for playoff spots. The Cowboys want to maintain or enhance their chances of obtaining a wildcard spot while the Steelers look to hold on to their narrow one-game lead over the Ravens.

These are three strong contests this week with playoff implications for all involved. We will see which teams rise to the occasion and which teams fold like a bad poker hand.

NFL Performance Rankings Week 13

2008-12-03T17:51:00.000-08:00

Three quarters of the season is done and the best teams are truly starting to show themselves in the top of the Performance Rankings. We feel confident that eight of the Top Ten teams in the PossessionPoints.com Performance Rankings will make the playoffs. There is still plenty of time for the two teams, who we think will not make the playoffs, to fall out of our Top Ten. We will talk about these two teams later.

The number one RPM team is the same team that has held the top spot for the last few weeks. Despite their off field troubles, the New York Giants have kept their spot because they had little trouble controlling their game against their Division rivals, the Redskins.

The Jets hold the same number two position as last week even though they appeared to be drunk on their own success in their loss to the Broncos. The Steelers and Ravens of the AFC North come in at numbers three and four this week. We think both of these teams will make the playoffs with one winning the Division and one most likely getting a wildcard berth.

At number five is one of our Top Ten teams that we do not think will make the playoffs. The Philadelphia Eagles have once again proved that they are one of the most underperforming teams in the NFL. This week, they dismantled the playoff-bound Cardinals and proved that they have the ability to beat anyone if they show up to play. It is almost inconceivable that in six of their games this season, Philadelphia played down to their competition and either lost or tied. Even if the Eagles beat the number one ranked Giants this week, we do not think it will help their chances of making the playoffs which are slim at best. The other playoff-bound teams in the Top Ten include the Vikings, Titans, Cardinals and Bucs. The other team in the Top Ten that we do not expect to make the playoffs is the Packers. Coming off of last year’s NFC Championship game, the Packers have turned out to be much like the Eagles levying disappointment upon their fans.

In the bottom five are teams who have absolutely no shot in making the playoffs especially since they only have eight victories between them this season. At the 28th spot are the 3-9 Raiders. Coming in at 29 are the 0-12 Lions. The Seahawks hold on to the number 30 spot with a record of 2-10. The Rams, also with a 2-10 record, take the 31 spot while the Bengals come in at the very bottom with a 1-10 record. We would like to point out that only 3 PossessionPoints separate the number 29 team from the number 32 teams. In other words, the bottom five are all pitiful. The Lions have a -57 RPM while the Bengals have a -60.

Once again, we stress that the PossessionPoints Performance Rankings are based on our in-game mathematical stat, and no subjective or emotional criteria are factored into our standings. This is the reason why non playoff-bound teams are in our Top Ten. Our rankings easily recognize and point out the biggest underperformers in the League

Big Games For Week 13

2008-11-26T18:17:00.000-08:00

Thanksgiving Day is traditionally a day of football, but this year’s games are mostly turkeys. Certainly the early games, the Titans vs. Lions and Seahawks vs Cowboys have no playoff implications unless by some miracle the Seahawks (a 12.5-point underdog) beat the Cowboys.

PossessionPoints.com recognizes that there is a fine line between the best and worst in the NFL. On any given day, one of the worst teams could well win, and by PossessionPoints Performance Rankings both the Seahawks and Lions are among the bottom five teams. So, it would not be out of reach for one of these teams to stage the upset of the day.

The first game that counts this week is the Giants vs. Redskins. The Redskins need this game more than the Giants as the Redskins are three games behind the Giants. Washington is presently tied with the Cowboys at 7-4, so a win is essential for them to stay as a prime contender for a wildcard spot.

Our second big game is the Bears vs. Vikings. This game is between the two teams tied atop the NFC North at 6-5. This Division will be won by either one of these teams or the Packers, and winning the Division is probably the only way into the playoffs.

The third big game is the Saints vs. Bucs. The Saints are 6-5 and Bucs are 8-3. The rest of the teams in this Division all have winning records as well. There very well might be a wildcard out of this Division, but the Saints cannot finish fourth and expect to make the playoffs with or without a wildcard.

Finally, the last big game is between the Steelers and Patriots. The Steelers find themselves one game up on the Ravens while the Patriots are one game behind the Jets. Both teams need this win to further their quest for a playoff berth.

NFL Performance Rankings Week 12

2008-11-26T17:43:00.000-08:00

New York, New York – it’s a hell of a town, and for the first time in the history of PossessionPoints.com, two NY teams are number 1 and number 2 in our Performance Rankings.

The Jets moved up in our Performance Rankings not only because they won their game against the Titans but because of how they won the game. The Jets also earned our Top Dog of the Week Spot in our weekly newsletter (Available for free on our site). Conversely, this one loss forced the Titans to tumble from number 4 on our charts all the way down to number 11. This tumble proves that win-loss records are not, as many football experts would have you believe, the only criteria in ranking football teams. In fact, PossessionPoints has never put the Titans as number 1 in our rankings because we include only mathematical factors from our in-game statistic and no emotional or subjective criteria. Although they were always highly ranked, the Titans did not warrant the number 1 spot according to the math. In the other matchups between top-performing teams, the Giants beat the Cardinals, but the Cardinals played well in this game. Because of their performance in this close contest, the Cardinals dropped only one position from number 2 to number 3. The Giants’ win allows them to continue to hold the number 1 spot which they have owned for most of the season.

This week, moving up the chart are teams that have hit some road bumps, but appear now to have found their stride. The Patriots moved from 13 to 10 and the Steelers jumped from number 9 to number 4. New England’s Matt Cassel has learned his Offense quickly and continues to improve each week. The Steelers have had Running Back injury issues, but with the return of Willie Parker, the Steelers look like the Steelers of Old.

We are aware that due to the Colts’ 7-4 record, many experts would like to place Indianapolis a lot higher in Rankings than they fall on our charts. In PossessionPoints, the Colts do not appear higher because of their early season performances which included a few miraculous wins as well as their four losses. As their game performance improves, so will their placement on our charts, but they have a way to go to get into the positive zone in PossessionPoints.

The Colts have climbed out of the bottom five, so now this group consists of teams with poor records none of which have any chance of making the playoffs. Worst among this group are the 2-9 Rams who sit at 32; the 1-9 Bengals who come in at 31; the 2-9Seahawks who own the 30th spot; the Chiefs who sit at number 29 with a 1-10 record; and the Lions, who despite being 0-11, are at 28. The Lions have shown some signs of life in the last few weeks. They have built early leads but mistakes have caused them to give up those leads. These early game performances account for their being the best of the worst in the bottom five. Maybe Thanksgiving will allow the Lions to redeem themselves with a win. Although playing the Titans, this may seem like a tall order.

Young Guns vs. Old Dogs: Which Quarterbacks gain Favor in the NFL?

2008-11-22T12:12:00.000-08:00

The NFL has long been a copycat league. Once one team finds success; the rest follow suit. Witness the popularity of the Wildcat Offense this year. It started with the Dolphins vs. the Patriots and soon became a gimmick that all teams used. If many teams are looking to their rivals for coaching trends, we have to wonder about the Quarterbacks in this league. Who is most in demand: the young guns or the old dogs?

We have all been inundated with Brett Favre stories and stats. Let’s face it: according to the media, Favre is the Miracle Man at the ripe old age of 39. But is he? Since Favre has come back to play and prove that his experience is still a valuable asset, other teams have come to rely on QBs of similar “advanced” age. Is this the NFL’s newest trend?

The Arizona Cardinals have the next most famous elder statesmen at the helm. At 37, Kurt Warner is once again the number one QB taking over for the highly touted young USC gun, Matt Leinert. While Warner has said in the past he knew he had more yet to offer, he wasn’t sure if a number one QB spot was in the cards. For Arizona, the switch to Warner has proved to be more than a blessing. Warner has not only led his team to the top spot in their Division, but the top spot with a considerable cushion.

We, at PossessionPoints.com,would be remiss if we overlooked two more seasoned QBs who have taken charge of most likely playoff – bound teams. First, is Kerry Collins who is 36 this season and second is Jeff Garcia of the Bucs who is 38. These two moved from backup status to starter after injuries and problems with younger QBs. Collins took over for Vince Young, supposedly the future of the Titans and has yet to lose while Garcia took over for Brian Griese, who while not exactly a young gun, was nonetheless considered the Bucs’ starter. One has to wonder if Garcia would have been the Dolphins’ QB had the Bucs succeeded in getting Favre instead of the Jets.

On the other side of the argument is the success that two rookies are having in the League this year. Conventional wisdom in the NFL has always been that young QBs need to sit and learn in order to become a successful leader of the team. If a team was forced to use a rookie QB as a starter, that team usually resigned itself to a losing or mediocre season. This year, two NFL teams threw caution to the wind and started Joe Flacco in Baltimore and Matt Ryan in Atlanta. While NFL experts viewed Ryan as the future of the beleaguered Falcons who thought they had nothing to lose by starting this season, Flacco was seen as a probable back-up behind both Kyle Boller and second-year man, Troy Smith. Injuries to Boller and a weird unrelenting viral infection to Smith, forced Flacco into the limelight. Both rookies have led their teams into some degree of surprising success in that both teams have a shot at the playoffs.

So, which trend might NFL teams follow after this season? If we take the hint from Minnesota, we might say that experience counts more. When Tavaris Jackson began to struggle this season, The Vikings had a choice in his replacement. On their roster, they had an “old” 37-year-old journeyman QB in Gus Frerotte and a rookie from USC, the football powerhouse, John David Booty. In a year when Quarterbacks from Boston College and University of Delaware are making their marks, you would think a rookie from USC would be ushered in easily. But the Vikings chose experience and have had great success.

When this season is done, and the Lombardi Trophy is handed out, it might well be which QB is holding the trophy that determines which direction teams will go next season. If a Manning is holding that trophy - well, all bets are off!

NFL Big Games for Week 12

2008-11-19T18:24:00.000-08:00

It is crunch time in the NFL, and time for the teams who want to make the playoffs to either step up or pack up. We believe that there are no less than five big games of the 16 contests to be played this week.

The first on the PossessionPoints.com Big Game list is the Jets visiting the undefeated Titans. This game features two of the “elder statesmen” of the Quarterback position (We will have more on QBs in a separate article this weekend). Anyone following the NFL this year is waiting to see if any chinks exist in the Titans’ armor. The Jets and Titans are the number 4 and Number 5 teams in our RPM measure as well as the current top-rated teams in the AFC. While the Titans’ lead in their division appears secure, the Jets have a slight and vulnerable 1-game lead in their division. From that point of view, we would say that this game is bigger for the Jets than the Titans. However, the Titans would like to pick up where the Patriots left off last season and pave that perfect path to the Super Bowl.

Our second big game features the two teams that are nipping at the heels of the Jets in the AFC East: the Patriots and the Dolphins in Miami. The Patriots are looking to avenge an earlier one-sided loss to the Dolphins this season. These two teams appear to be playoff caliber as they are both in the top half of our RPM standings. The winner of this game will see their playoff hopes rise while the loser will find a very tough road ahead to the playoffs. This game is equally important for both teams.

The third big game is an inter-conference game as the Eagles visit the Ravens. The Eagles and Ravens are both in our top ten in our RPM, but neither of them are currently leading their divisions. Both teams have four losses and certainly need every win they can muster if they want to advance to the playoffs. In the preseason, few expected the Ravens to be a potential playoff contender, while many expected the Eagles to go far. Over the last few weeks, their positions have switched. The Eagles need to rebound to their early season form if they hope to keep their slim playoff hopes alive while the Ravens possess a chance of attaining a playoff spot by earning a wildcard spot or perhaps by overtaking the Steelers who are one game ahead of them in the Division.

Our next big game features two AFC teams fighting for their playoff lives. The Colts have seemed to have found their voice and legs and are taking their game on the road to San Diego to face the Chargers who have been inconsistent at best. The Chargers at 4-6 are probably not looking at a wildcard. They need to overtake the Broncos who are two games ahead of them in their Division. The Colts do have a shot at a wildcard and virtually no shot at their Division Title as they are four games behind the Titans. This contest is extremely important for both teams and definitely an example of where the winner steps up and the loser packs up.

Finally, we want to talk about the game where our Number 1 RPM team meets our Number 2 RPM team. If the BCS could only get so lucky with these stats, their lives would be easier. Neither one of these teams are looking at packing up, but the winner of this game may well identify who the “class” of the NFC really is. Should the Cardinals win, there is a strong possibility that the Cardinals and Giants could both earn first-round byes in the playoffs. The Panthers, who are currently at 8-2, are also looking at that possibility. We would view this as a bigger game for the Cardinals both for their own confidence and as a way to legitimize themselves as a power team in the NFC. For some reason, many experts have downplayed the Cardinals’ success this season and are insistent upon owing that success to playing in a very weak division.

Enjoy the games! This is going to be an exciting, important and decisive week.

NFL Performance Rankings Week 11

2008-11-19T17:04:00.000-08:00

This week in the NFL, the Giants hold on to their number 1 position, and the Cardinals are biting at their heels at number 2. These two teams are the only two teams with a Green RPM in the PossessionPoints.com Performance Charts. However, this week something big has got to happen since the Giants play the Cardinals in Arizona. There will be more on this game in our Big Games of the Week Column.

We are quite surprised with the team that is in the Number 3 position: The Philadelphia Eagles. At 5-4-1, they are obviously above .500, but their performance has proved lackluster at best. We have to admit that the Eagles have always been the team to befuddle our measures and, of course, their fans with their game performances both on the win and loss side. In 2006, there were 7 games where a team with a Green Sweep lost. The Eagles were the winners in three of those odds-defying games which is why we are not too shocked to see their RPM remain high while their record falters. One day, we and the fans of Philadelphia will figure out this team. On another note, the Eagles will also be mentioned in our Big Games column as well.

As you can see from the Red and Green on the right side of the chart, there was a great deal of movement by teams in the middle of the pack. Because of their one-sided win which earned them our Top Dog Performance of the Week, the Packers have re-established themselves as the favorite to win the NFC North in our view despite the fact that it is currently a three-way tie with the Vikings and Bears.

The Colts still remain in the bottom half of the RPM, but they are steadily making progress and have climbed out of our RPM Red zone. They can thank their lucky wins in the earlier part of their season which helped them stay in contention for a playoff spot. If they continue to play with a positive RPM in this half of the season, they certainly can make the playoffs although it will be a tough road at best. There are three other teams who like the Colts have a 6-4 record and who are vying for a playoff berth: the Patriots, Dolphins and Ravens.

At this time, we would also like to pronounce the death of the playoff hopes of the teams who are all Red at the bottom of our RPM chart. These teams include the Chiefs in the 27th spot with a 1-9 record; the Lions who are at 28 with a 0-10 record; the 29th place Raiders at 2-8; the Bengals with a 1-8-1 record followed by the Seahawks and Rams, both with a 2-8 record.

NFL Big Games for Week 11

2008-11-12T18:59:00.000-08:00

This week, one of the biggest games is the very first one on the schedule. The Thursday night game between the Jets and Patriots offer serious repercussions. Right now, the Jets and Patriots are tied atop the AFC East at 6-3. While we forecast an extremely close game,PossessionPoints.com is giving the edge to the home Patriots. Even with this win, our glimpse into the future would have both the Jets and Patriots winding up their seasons at 11-5. Therefore, a win here by the Jets, could truly put them in the driver seat for their Division.

Another important contest is between the NY Giants and the Baltimore Ravens. While this game may not dictate the playoff future of either the Giants or the Ravens, it does help identify if one or both teams represent the “cream of the crop” or a Super Bowl contender. As of now, the Giants are our number 1 team in our Performance Rankings while the Ravens hold the number 5 spot. These teams are the highest ranked teams to be playing each other this week.

The last big game we want to highlight may not seem that big, but it pits the 6-3 Arizona Cardinals against the 2-7 Seattle Seahawks. We mention this game because the Cardinals are emerging as a top-flight team this season, while the Seahawks, who were the class of this Division in recent years, have fallen. The Seahawks are traditionally very tough at home, so the Cardinals get the chance to prove themselves in what may be their toughest remaining Division game.

NFL Performance Rankings Week 10

2008-11-12T18:20:00.000-08:00

This week, the Giants continue to hold on to their number 1 position. With their win over the Philadelphia Eagles, the Giants now have a full two-game lead in the NFC East. The number 2 team on the PossessionPoints.com Performance Rankings list will be a surprise to most people: The Arizona Cardinals. We will not get much of an argument over our number 3 team, the 9-0 Titans - except from those Tennessee fans who insist they should be at number 1. To be honest, the difference between the three top teams is not that great, and all three are in the PossessionPoints.com “Green” zone. When a team makes it “Green” in a single game, they win more than 90 percent of the time. The Performance Rankings are based on the season average so far, so to be “Green” in the Performance Rankings designates high-quality performance.

This week, we would like to spend some time examining the top three teams. The Cardinals have been near the top of our rankings all season including Week 5 when they held the number 2 spot with a 3-2 record. Since that time, their record has improved to 6-3. During Week 5, the Giants were still number 1 with a 4-0 record, and the Titans earned the number 3 spot also with a 4-0 record. Keep in mind that our Performance Rankings are based solely on in-game statistical performance. Again we stress, we do not take into account any subjective or emotional factors; we do not even take into account wins and losses. Wins and losses are a natural byproduct of our Performance measure: winning teams do well and losing teams do poorly.

In Week 5, while the Cardinals had two losses and the Giants and Titans had none, there were seven one-loss teams that were ranked below the Cardinals. Since that point in time, only one of those teams, the Panthers, have had as good a winning percentage as the Cardinals with three more wins and one loss. There were two teams that have gone 2-2 since that time as well, and they are the Redskins and Steelers. The Cowboys, Bills and Broncos, who were all 4-1 at Week 5, have since gone 1-3 to have a total record of 5-4. You will now find these teams at our number 22, 23 and 24 positions in our Rankings. So, needless to say, we do not feel the least bit remorseful at ranking the Cardinals at the number 2 spot back in Week 5 or now.

Let’s have some fun and take a closer look at the past of the top three teams and what the road ahead may look like. The Cardinals’ past opponents have a combined record of 40 wins and 41 losses. Their past opponents’ combined Relative Performance Measure or RPM is a poor -87. Many may think that the poor performance of their opponents is the reason why the Cardinals have done so well on our chart, but if you accept that you must say the same is true for the Giants and Titans. The Giants’ past opponents have a combined record of 32-49 and a -67 RPM while the Titans’ past opponents have a 34-47 record and a -54 RPM. This demonstrates that the strength of the opponents that the Cardinals faced is on an even par with those of the Giants and Titans.

If we look into the future, the Cardinals’ future opponents have a combined record of 30-33 and an RPM of -28. The Giants’ have a tough road ahead as their future opponents have a combined record of 40-23 and a +174 RPM. The Titans should cruise into the playoffs as their future opponents have a record of 27-36 and a -30 RPM.
If the Giants hold their number 1 ranking throughout the second half of the season while facing such a challenging schedule, we will be truly impressed. We won’t be surprised to see them fall back some in the RPM. However, remember that last year they won the Super Bowl after going 10-6 in the regular season.

Just for fun, we did look at some “traditional” power rankings. One had the Cardinals at number 6 – unchanged from Week 9 and the other had the Cardinals at number 8– up from number 9 in Week 9. Hopefully, the Cardinals will look at the Performance Rankings of PossessionPoints.com and realize that their team is as good as the Rankings say they are. Confidence is a huge part of football, and can make or break winners.

Not to neglect the bottom 5, they consist of the same teams as last week in a slightly different order. At the bottom of our rankings at 32 are the 2-7 Rams preceded closely by the 0-9 Lions, the 2-7 Seahawks, the 1-8 Bengals and the 2-7 Raiders.

NFL Performance Rankings Week 9

2008-11-05T18:38:00.000-08:00

This week, the Giants hold the top spot on PossessionPoints.com’s Performance Rankings. The Giants improved their record to 7-1 which helps them maintain their lone position as leader of the NFC East. In the number 2 spot are the 5-3 Philadelphia Eagles who vaulted from number 5 to second place because of their throttling of the Seahawks. The Cardinals remain the number 3 team at 5-3.

The Eagles and Cardinals are good examples of the uniqueness of the Performance Rankings of PossessionPoints.com. You will not find many power rankings placing these two teams above the 8-0 Titans. However, by virtue of their strong performances, the Eagles and Cardinals have earned their slots. The 8-0 Titans do hold the number 4 position. You will see in our chart that these teams are painted Green which highlights the fact that they have the highest RPMs in the NFL. Remember, PossessionPoints is based on our exclusive in-game statistic - not bias or opinion.

The Teams that are shaded Red depict a pretty hapless group. The Chart shows the 2-6Seahawks, the 1-7 Chiefs, the 0-8 Lions, the 1-8 Bengals, the 2-6 Raiders and the 2-6Rams.

In the middle of the pack or the Yellow zone, there was not a whole lot of movement; however, there were some teams that made strides. The Dolphins moved from 19 to 10 in our chart, and the Steelers jumped from 17 to 7. Dropping significantly were the Redskins who fell from 13 to 20. They also saw their RPM turn negative for the first time this year. Despite their 6-3 record, the Redskins must turn their performances around to maintain their place or gain ground in the NFC East.

Big NFL Games for Week 9

2008-10-30T16:42:00.000-07:00

It is a big week for the NFC East and AFC North. The NFC East - leading Giants go up against their Division rivals, the Dallas Cowboys. Despite the Cowboys’ well-publicized struggles this season, their record is just one win less than the Giants. If they could pull out a victory against NY, they would draw even with them in the win column although they would still have one more loss. However, a Cowboy win would have a secondary effect as well. A Dallas’ victory could open the door for the Redskins to take sole possession of the NFC East lead.

Allow us to use the Redskins to segue into our next big game: The 6-2 Redskins against the NFC North – leading Steelers. At 5-2, the Steelers lead their Division by just one game over the Ravens. Pittsburgh needs this victory to maintain this lead.

The 4-3 Ravens are our third feature game. They will be playing the 3-4 Browns. Earlier this season it seemed the Browns were out of contention but with their recent wins, which include a big victory over the Giants, they have managed to bring their record up to 3-4. If they can beat the Ravens, they would pull even with them at 4-4. Should the Redskins beat the Steelers and the Browns beat the Ravens, the Ravens and Browns would both be one game behind the Steelers opening the playoff door for any team who gets hot later in the season except for - of course - the Bengals. For more information and updates, go to PossessionPoints.com.

NFL Performance Rankings Week 8

2008-10-30T16:00:00.000-07:00

Once again, the Giants maintained their number one ranking according to by virtue of their victory over the Steelers last week. The unbeaten Titans, who are the top of many of the “Classic” opinion-based rankings, rose to number two. Remember,PossessionPoints.com uses only numbers and no emotion or opinion in the determination of our Relative Performance Rankings (RPMs). The Titans are within two RPM points of the NY Giants, so they are well within striking distance of the top spot. A bit further back – 12 points to be exact –is the number three team, the Cardinals. The number four team, the Houston Texans, are the only team without a winning record in our top five. Keep in mind that the Texans have won their last three games, so their performance numbers are on the rise. Holding on to fifth place are the 4-3 Eagles.

Teams that have made some big moves in the Rankings this week are the Ravens who jumped from 16th to eighth place because of their win over Oakland. The Steelers stumbled to 17th from seventh place because of their loss to the Giants.

We warned you last week that a big game could move teams in the middle of the pack a long way up and the down chart depending on how large the win or loss. There are still less than 20 RPMs that separate number eight from number 20. There are six teams in the Red which means they have lower than a -40 in RPMs, and it should come as no surprise that these teams have losing records. The best of this sordid bunch in 27th place is the 3-4 Colts. Most everyone, including the Colts, know that for them to win their Division would take almost a miracle at this point since they are four games behind the powerful Titans. The remainder of the hapless teams, with even less hope of making the playoffs, are the Raiders and Rams, who are both 2-5, followed by the winless Lions and Bengals and finally in last place the 1-6 Chiefs. .

NFL Performance Rankings for Week 7

2008-10-22T17:40:00.000-07:00

This week, we welcome back the Giants to the top of our Performance Rankings, but this time around the Giants are not that far ahead of everyone else in the pack. The reason they are not the standout team as before is their run-in with Cleveland’s buzz saw two weeks ago. Because of that one-sided win, the Browns are still hanging around in the number 10 slot instead of wallowing in the bottom half of the rankings as you might expect with a 2-4 record.

The 4-2 Cardinals fell to the number 2 spot despite having a bye and the same RPM as last week. They fell due to the better performance of the Giants. The lone undefeated team, the Titans, are in the number 3 spot this week and for the first time, their RPM has moved above 40 which now puts them in the Green territory of the RPM of PossessionPoints.com

Rounding out the top five are two, three-win teams: Vikings and the Eagles. Some of the biggest moves this week were made by the Steelers who moved up from 11 to 7 courtesy of their 5-1 record. The Panthers jumped from 13 to 8 with a 5-2 record, and the Texans who have turned around the 0-4 start to a 2-4 record have catapulted from 23rd to 13th.

On the other side, the 3-4 Saints tumbled from number 3rd to number 12th because they cannot seem to score a touchdown. The 4-3 Bears also fell sharply from 7th to 17th. In the middle of the pack, there is the potential for a lot of movement as only 20 RPM points separate the number 9 team from the number 20 team.

The Detroit Lions lead our bottom five teams with a -68 RPM. The Chiefs are right above them with a -64 RPM while the Rams sit at number 30 with a -58. The 0-7 Bengals are at 29 with a -50 RPM ,and last but not least sitting at number 28 are the Seahawks with a -48 RPM.

Remember, as you look over these numbers, that there is no subjectivity, emotion or opinion contained in them. Our Performance Rankings are based solely on our in-game PossessionPoints statistic which is remarkably accurate in projecting winning teams. For more information, go to PossessionPoints.com.

NFL Big Games for Week 7

2008-10-16T17:15:00.000-07:00

Last week, there were many dramatic games which produced some dicey situations when it comes to Division races. We would like to focus on three big games this week. Each game can mean the difference between an okay season and a playoff bid.

First up is the Saints vs. Panthers game. After six weeks, the Saints find themselves in last place in the NFC South. The NFC South is doing its best impression of the NFC East as this Division has three teams with 4-2 records followed by the Saints with a 3-3 record. When the 3-3 Saints face the 4-2 Panthers this week, New Orleans will have a chance to at least move into a tie with the Panthers. From a PossessionPoints.com Performance Ranking point of view, the Saints look like the team to win this Division, but this game will tell us if the Saints are a bunch of hype or the real thing.

The second game we want to highlight is the 3-3 Chargers traveling to play the 4-1 Bills. In Week 5, the Bills were our top RPM team. They spiraled downward to the middle of the pack with their significant loss to the Cardinals. While not truly a must win for either the Chargers or the Bills, a win for the Bills would allow Buffalo to hold on to the top spot in the AFC East. On the other hand, a win for the Chargers would keep San Diego on the heels of the Broncos or maybe even tie them if Denver should drop another game. A win would definitely give the Chargers an above .500 record for the first time this season.

The third game on our list for the week is a Black and Blue Division Classic: The Vikings visiting the Bears. Both teams are tied with the Packers on top of the NFC North with 3-3 records. The winner will at least have a share of the lead going into Week 8 while the loser will find themselves at least a game back. While this Division is battling each other to achieve .500 record, all their opponents in the NFC South and East already have at least a .500 record. What this means is that the way to the playoffs for an NFC North team is to win the Division as anything less than a Division Championship may not be enough to guarantee postseason play. So, any game when the Vikings, Packers or Bears play each other this season is a big game!

NFL Performance Rankings for Week 6

2008-10-15T18:39:00.000-07:00

We at PossessionPoints.com are beginning to think the NFL has turned into college football because in the last two weeks the number one team has fallen. These teams were not just beaten; they were beaten badly. Two weeks ago, the Bills were undefeated and number one in our Performance Rankings. Alas, their loss was so one-sided that Buffalo tumbled all the down to Number 16. By virtue of their bye this week, the Bills managed to nudge themselves up a peg to 15.

Last week, the Giants were unbeaten and Number one in our Rankings. They looked like the Super Bowl Champs of last year. Then came Monday Night Football and a determined Browns team. This game also proved to be a one-sided mess for New York, and now the Giants find that they have slipped to Number two in the rankings. This may not sound like a big drop, but the separation between New York and the other NFL teams was substantial. This loss brought them back into the fold of the pack and on par with everyone else. They lost their spot on the pedestal. To underscore how one-sided the Browns’ victory was, it brought Cleveland from Number 20 all the way up to Number 10.

The Arizona Cardinals are our new Number one for the week. One thing we can guarantee is that the Cardinals will not get thumped like their predecessors who occupied the Number one spot before them because Arizona has a bye this week. However, watch out next week. One never knows what one week in the NFL brings.

We would like to highlight a number of teams with winning records whose RPMs(Relative Performance Measures) are negative which is to us a sign of trouble brewing. We have the Broncos and Falcons who are both 4-2. The Broncos have a -1.4 RPM while Atalnta has -1.9 RPM. The Broncos rank 20th in our Performance Charts and the Falcons sit 21st.

Our Top Five teams in our Performance Chart are the Cardinals, Giants, Saints, Titans-the lone unbeaten team, and the Eagles. Our bottom five teams are the Bengals, Lions, Raiders, Chiefs and Rams.

NFL Performance Rankings for Week 5

2008-10-08T17:31:00.000-07:00

It doesn’t matter if you win or lose but how you win or lose that determines your Performance Rankings according to PossessionPoints.com. In Week 4, the Bills held the number one spot in our Performance Rankings, but their poor play caused Buffalo to tumble significantly down to the middle of our chart. The bye week comes just at the right time for the Bills who will have a chance to regroup and prepare for their Week 7 game against the Chargers. If it is any consolation, Bills’ fans, a lot of scoreboard points in the first half against San Diego may position Buffalo for the win as the Chargers do not seem to show signs of life in their games until the second half and sometimes that life comes too late.

The Arizona Cardinals are on the flip side of this situation in that they vaulted up the chart to Number 2 from number 11. These dramatic moves are rather rare in this part of the season. Teams tend not to move 9, 10 or 15 places when the season is already a quarter of the way through. If the Cardinals can avoid making mistakes, their potent offense can carry them not only into a Division championship but deep into the playoffs as well. However as the Houston Texans proved this week, mistakes will kill you.

The Texans are an interesting story in that despite their loss, they moved up the PossessionPoints.com Performance Rankings from 30th to 24th. We are not talking Super Bowl here for the Texans, but their jump does show how PossessionPoints captures performance and to some degree puts aside mistakes figuring that good teams will rise above their errors and eliminate them in the future.

The Top Five teams this week are the Giants, Cardinals, Vikings and the Panthers who are another new addition to the Top Five of our Performance Rankings. The Bottom Five are the Bengals, Colts, Chiefs, Lions and Rams. As you can see by the Colts’ rankings, we do not think much of lucky wins. A team needs to truly perform to move up in our Performance Rankings.

NFL Teams: Schedules vs. Performance

2008-10-04T09:12:00.000-07:00

In the NFL, a common debate revolves around the role a schedule plays in determining if a team makes the playoffs or not. PossessionPoints.com
tends to side with those that say that there is so little difference between the best and worst teams in the NFL that the differences in schedule may not be all that important. However, over short stretches, schedules can distort how teams perform. Let’s look at past schedules first. Below are the rankings of the strength of teams’ opponents during the first quarter of the season (based on PossessionPoints Relative Performance Measure -RPM).

It is interesting to note that two undefeated teams, the Bills and the Giants, have had the easiest road so far while two winless teams, the Rams and Bengals, have had the hardest. That is easy to figure, right? Well, look at the Redskins and Panthers, they are 3-1 while having the 3rd and 4th toughest schedules so far from a PossessionPoints RPM point of view.

So, what about going forward? What do the teams’ schedules look like for the final three quarters of the season? Below is the chart showing how teams’ future schedules rank based on the RPM of their future opponents:

We found this chart extremely interesting in that the 4-0 Titans have the easiest schedule going forward. Either their opponents have to improve their performance immensely or they should have a relatively easy walk into the playoffs. The 2-2 Bears are also well positioned with the second easiest schedule. The road is toughest for the Giants, Eagles and, unfortunately, for the 1-3 Chiefs and the 1-3 Browns. The easiest future schedule of any NFC East team belongs to the Redskins whose future opponents RPM ranks 20th. The other NFC East teams are all in the top 5 of toughest schedules

NFL BIG GAMES FOR WEEK 5

2008-10-02T17:22:00.000-07:00

No game is more important this week than the Redskins vs. Eagles. Despite the Eagles being a respectable 2-2 this season, they find themselves in almost a must-win situation at home this weekend. Here is why:

While the Eagles are only one game behind the Redskins and Cowboys, they are still in last place in the dominating NFC East. As we look forward through the rest of the season, we see that the Eagles’ future opponents have a current combined record of 25-19 and a percentage of .568 based on the first quarter results while the Washington Redskins’ future opponents have a current combined record of 19-25 and a percentage of .432. What does this mean? Based on these stats, the Eagles have the third toughest remaining schedule in the NFL while the Redskins have the fourth easiest schedule in the NFL. Many prognosticators, including PossessionPoints.com, had originally picked the Redskins to finish fourth. However, a win this week in Philadelphia would put Washington two games ahead of the Eagles and well on their way to better than a last place finish in the NFC East and maybe even a repeat appearance in the Playoffs. We know it is early, but the ramifications of this game are great indeed.

We will have more details about team schedules and where they all stand in a separate article tomorrow.

The next big game is the Colts at the Texans. The Colts are 1- 2 and find themselves in a very unusual situation. They are already three wins behind the Titans in their division. A loss in this game could not only seriously hurt their chances of winning their division but hamper their ability to make the playoffs as well. While it is true that the Titans have built their 4-0 record against competition that is only 3-12 this season, the remainder of their schedule does not look much more challenging as their future opponents’ record is only 17- 26 which gives the Titans the third easiest remaining schedule in the NFL. This indicates the Colts truly have their work cut out for them this season.

NFL Performance Rankings Week 4

2008-10-01T17:11:00.000-07:00

This week, we have noticed the traditional media outlets moving up the Bills in their “Power Rankings” to number 3. They are catching on to what PossessionPoints.com sees. Last week, we had the Bills in the number 1 spot, and this week the Bills remain in that position. Rounding out the top 4 in our Performance Rankings are the Giants, Eagles, Titans and Chargers. Like the Bills, the Titans are 4-0, but they actually fell a bit in our Performance Rankings from 2nd down to 4th. It is also interesting to note that the Vikings who lost to the Titans also fell in our Performance Rankings from 3rd to 6th. As expected, this 2-3 matchup turned out to be a tough struggle which resulted in both teams falling in the Performance Rankings.

The other item to note in this week’s chart is all the Yellow. All but five teams are coated in Yellow. This demonstrates how competitive the league is this year with few teams standing out with Green performances.

One new feature we have added to our Performance Rankings is the “Ranked Last Week” Column. You can easily see teams that are moving up versus teams that are moving down. The teams moving up are in a Green background while the teams moving down are in a Red background.

We also want to draw your attention to one dramatic fall this week: The Cowboys who have fallen from 8th to 18th. Even when the Cowboys were undefeated and proclaimed as the top NFL team by all the “Power Rankings”, PossessionPoints recognized a weakness in their Defense. Last week, that weakness came through loud and clear with their defeat by the Redskins. Does this mean the Cowboys are finished? Absolutely not, but they need to shore up their Defense.

Rounding out the bottom five in our Performance Rankings are the Colts who hopefully used their bye week to figure out some way to improve their offense; the Chiefs; Texans; Lions (ditto the comment of the Colts); and the Rams who will have a new Coach on the sidelines next week which might help them climb out of the basement.

PossessionPoints.com’s Performance Ratings are unique because they are based on in-game stats that are present in each game every week. Not present in these performance ratings are any opinion and or subjective measure of any type.

NFL BIG GAMES FOR WEEK 4

2008-09-25T16:03:00.000-07:00

This week, the big games feature Division rivalries where teams off to a surprising good start must prove their mettle against the expected favorites.

The first game on our list is the Ravens – Steelers. The 2-0 Ravens are playing in Pittsburgh against the 2-1 Steelers. The Steelers are hurting since losing their top Running Back Willie Parker to an injury. Also hurting but expected to play is Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger who took a beating from the Philadelphia Eagles last week.

The Ravens have become a surprise around the NFL as well. They were expected to continue their horrible 2007 season this year, but Baltimore looks more like the 2006strong defensive team that kept opposing offenses frustrated. The Ravens are a 7-point underdog, so it appears they do not have believers quite yet. A win this week would inspire fans and football pundits to give these Birds the respect they desire and deserve.

The other big game is the Redskins at the Cowboys. The Redskins are another team that has surprised the experts. Now 2-1, they must face their 3-0 Division rivals in Dallas. We are confident that the Redskins coaching staff is studying films of last week’s Dallas-Packer game to figure out what the Packers did to shut down Terrell Owens which is something that Washington has not been able to do since T.O has been a Cowboy. Most prognosticators have picked the Redskins to finish fourth in this Division. However, a win this week would throw many of these projections up in the air. Like the Ravens, the Redskins are a big underdog – an 11.5-point underdog to be exact. Based on the PossessionPoints.com Performance Rankings, we hold more hope for the Ravens than the Redskins. The Ravens are currently ranked 9th while the Steelers are ranked 15th. The Cowboys hold the 8th spot while the Redskins are ranked 20th.

NFL Performance Rankings Week 3

2008-09-24T18:01:00.000-07:00

The top five Performance Rankings according to PossessionPoints.com for Week 3 are the Bills, Titans, Vikings, Eagles and Giants. If you are surprised to see the Bills take the top spot in the Performance Rankings, you are not alone. However, this is no fluke. The Bills have earned this top spot according to the PossessionPoints.com data. Other noteworthy and previously rare additions to the top five are the Titans and Vikings. This season is starting out as one surprise after another. These Performance Rankings are based on in-game statistics that measure the team’s offensive performance. These statistics take into account such elements as the scoring drive, the points scored and time of possession.

It is always interested to note who the bottom five teams are. These are the teams that need to shake things up a bit if they hope to make the playoffs. Jets’ fans may be disheartened to find their team in the bottom five especially with all the hope that surrounded the acquisition of Brett Favre as their new leader. While we are not the least bit surprised to see the Chiefs, Lions and Rams in the bottom five, we still harbor hopes for the Texans. We think this team has more talent than it has shown, and we expect to see improvement and some wins in the near future.

Perhaps, the biggest stunner in this week’s Performance Rankings is the position of the Indianapolis Colts who are just a hair out of the bottom five. Last season, it was almost impossible to bump the Colts out of the top 5 in the Performance Rankings. My, how quickly teams can fall!

Another surprise is that the undefeated Cowboys take the eighth spot. Many would have thought they would occupy one of the top five places, but tough games with the Eagles and the Packers brought down their performance measure a bit.

In the included chart, you will see each team, their win-loss record and the PossessionPoints measure of relative performance which is colored green, yellow or red. A green chart indicates a positive and strong team performance. A yellow chart indicates a mediocre to fair performance and a red chart screams, “Uh, oh. We are in trouble.”

These Performance Ratings are unique because they are based on in-game stats that are present in each game every week. Not present in these performance ratings are any opinion and or subjective measure of any type.

NFL Big Games for Week 3

2008-09-17T17:52:00.001-07:00

This week, there are a couple of big games that warrant attention. Both of the ones we want to talk about involve teams that find themselves surprisingly 0-2 after the first two weeks of the season. This losing record makes their Week 3 matchups very important to their season survival.

First on the PossessionPoints.com Big Game List is the Seahawks vs. Rams. Who would have dreamed that the Rams would be talked about as contenders in a big game this season? Both these teams are 0-2, and while many fans aren’t surprised by the Rams’ situation, they are surprised that the Seahawks have dug themselves into such a big hole. If the Seahawks continue their downward spiral, they might as well start daydreaming about next season with new Coach Jim Mora because this season would have most likely slipped beyond their control. PossessionPoints.com doesn’t see the Seahawks losing to the Rams and neither does Las Vegas who has them as a 9.5 point favorite.

The Chargers and Jets are our next big game. Our hearts go out to the Chargers as they must feel snake bit after the first two games. They were two seconds and one referee’s whistle from being 2-0. Whatever the circumstances, the Chargers are in need of a win badly. However, they are facing a team that the Broadcasters have drooled over since Brett Favre joined their ranks and pulled out the big (sarcasm) win over the Dolphins in Week 1. Once again, neither PossessionPoints nor Las Vegas is too worried about the Chargers in this game. We think the combination of hunger and need will be enough for San Diego to defeat any miracles the Jets might have up their sleeves. However, given the way this season has so far gone for the Chargers, one never knows.

NFL Performance Rankings - Week 2

2008-09-17T17:52:00.000-07:00

The top five Performance Rankings according to PossessionPoints.com are the Cardinals, Giants, Cowboys, Titans and Patriots. This is the first time since the inception of PossessionPoints.com that the Cardinals have earned the top spot. These Performance Rankings are based on in-game statistics that measure the team’s offensive performance. These statistics take into account such elements as the scoring drive, the points scored and time of possession.

It is always interested to note who the bottom five teams are. These are the teams that need to improve greatly if they are going to aspire to any kind of winning season. This week, the bottom five teams are the Bengals, Lions, Chiefs and Texans. The Texans have only played one game so a big turn around is still possible with them.

At this time in the season, we always like to identify the best 0-2 team. This year, there are two 0-2 teams that measure out on the positive side of the performance rankings: the Vikings who came in at 10 and the Chargers who came in at 14.

In the included chart, you will see each team, their win-loss record and the PossessionPoints measure of relative performance which is colored green, yellow or red. A green chart indicates a positive and strong team performance. A yellow chart indicates a mediocre to fair performance and a red chart tells the tale of trouble ahead.

These Performance Ratings are unique because they are based on in-game stats that are present in each game every week. Not present in these performance ratings are any opinion and or subjective measure of any type.

Excessive Celebration Rule Has to Go in College Football

2008-09-13T19:04:00.000-07:00

The college sports broadcasters are still talking about last week’s ridiculous excessive celebration call against Washington which literally cost the Huskies the game against Brigham Young. This week another excessive celebration call was called against Penn State because a player flipped the ball lightly after scoring a touchdown, and although it was not a game-ending penalty, this penalty call was nonetheless asinine.

While it is true that PossessionPoints.com focuses only on NFL, we felt the need to talk about the stupid rules that affect players who may or may not go on to the NFL. These are college kids playing a physical and emotional sport. Have we become so encrusted in political correctness that celebrating an accomplishment such as a touchdown is considered unsportsmanlike? In both instances, neither team that was penalized threw their scores in the face of their competition. They hugged their teammates in excitement and then quickly moved off the field. Yes, both players from both teams did flip the ball up in the air, but not at any opposing player or at any official.

If this rule is to stand, what is next? If a college baseball or softball player hits a grand slam, should teammates not be allowed to greet their player at home plate and acknowledge this accomplishment? How about soccer goals? Should teammates just pretend a goal didn’t take place because it might hurt the opposing team’s feelings?

Well, if that’s the case, let’s move the arrogance of celebrating a job well done into the academic world. Let’s do away with Dean’s Lists and awards at graduation. Surely, the graduates who do not achieve high academic grades will feel badly because they will not be recognized for their lackluster academic performance. I guess if you follow the thinking of the NCAA rule makers, recognition of any achievement might emotionally cripple the lives of those who don’t share in the same success.

Coaches go over the rights and wrongs of celebration with their players every year. I do not know of one college program that teaches their players to purposely flaunt their goals and scores in the faces of their opposition. Sportsmanship has always been a key part of college athletics and few programs have fallen short of showing respect to their competition. This excessive celebration rule is another example of how too many regulations ruin a good thing. The NCAA’s rule and willingness of the officials to over- enforce this rule dishonors the players and the games and their accomplishments.

Do away with this rule and let the players have the excitement of the game back.

Good Things Can Happen When History Repeats Itself Especially in the NFL

2008-09-11T16:52:00.000-07:00

When Bill Parcells was Coach of the Giants, he recruited from University of Notre Dame, a 6’4”, 255-pound Tight End named Mark Bavarro, an Italian-American who hailed from Massachusetts. Known for his blocking skills and his ability to hold on to even the toughest passes, Bavarro was a key reason why the Giants won the 1986 Super Bowl.

Fast forward 20 years to 2006. Bill Parcells set up shop as Head Coach of the Dallas Cowboys. In the draft, the Cowboys picked a 6’4”, 245-pound Tight End – another Italian- American and another Notre Dame grad named Anthony Fasano. Fasano proved to be a capable Tight End although he did not post as many impressive stats as Bavarro. However, Fasano was part of the Romo-Owens offense which also included another stellar Tight End named Jason Whitten. This talent pool left little room for Tight End super performances by Fasano.

Now, two years later, Bill Parcells is Head of Operations of the Dolphins and guess who came with him to Miami? Anthony Fasano. How do we think Fasano will fare in Miami? We think pretty well. He is on an offense with Chad Pennington who is not quite the long passer that Romo is. Could this mean that Fasano will have more opportunity to make game-altering receptions and possibly become Parcells’ next Mark Bavarro?

Rookie Running Back Steve Slaton was a force to be reckoned with in the Catholic High School League in Philadelphia. In his senior year, he accepted a scholarship to University of Maryland. However, a few weeks before he was set to go play for the Terrapins, he got word that the school reneged on his scholarship. After a quick and desperate search for a new school, Slaton found a home at West Virginia University. Although relieved that he found a team who liked his talent, Slaton knew his playing time would be limited at best. He was the number four Running Back on the team. But that crafty fickle finger of fate was not about to give up on Slaton. Within the first weeks of the start of the season, injuries sidelined all those players who were ahead of Slaton on the team bench. By week four, Slaton had entrenched himself as a starter for West Virginia.

Fast forward three years. Steve Slaton entered the NFL draft after his junior year. In the third round, he was taken by the Texans. Again, Slaton realized that he was pretty far down on the Running Back depth chart. In fact, he was the fifth Running Back of the Texans. Some experts thought Slaton would get the axe before the season opened. At PossessionPoints.com, we referred to Slaton as our “Super Sleeper” having watched him climb through the ranks to become a well-deserved star at West Virginia. We wondered if history would repeat itself again. Guess what? It did. The Texans lost their “starters” to injuries and, lo and behold, Steve Slaton will get another chance to showcase his amazing talent. Isn’t it funny how history or fate or luck can make or break a career?

NFL Week 1 Performance Rankings - the 2008 Season

2008-09-10T18:54:00.000-07:00

Week 1 of the 2008 football season is now done, and our performance rankings are already interesting. After the first week, there were 10 teams with green Performance Rankings, 12 teams with yellow and 10 with red. As the season progresses, the yellow Performance Rankings will increase. The top five Performance Rankings for Week 1 according to PossessionPoints.com are the Eagles, Steelers, Broncos, Cardinals and Giants. What a far cry from last year when the Patriots and Cowboys occupied the top spots almost every week! Don’t despair if you are from New England or Dallas as both teams still hold spots in the top 10. The bottom five teams are the Redskins, 49ers, Raiders, Texans and Rams. These Performance Rankings are based on in-game statistics that measure a team's offensive and defensive performance. These statistics take into account such elements as the scoring drive, the points scored and time of possession.

In the included chart, you will see each team, their win-loss record and the PossessionPoints measure of relative performance which is colored green, yellow or red. A green chart indicates a positive and strong team performance. A yellow chart indicates a mediocre to fair performance and a red chart tells the tale of trouble ahead.

These Performance Rankings are unique because they are based on in-game stats that are present in each game every week. Not present in these Performance Rankings are any opinion and or subjective measure of any type. Of course, keep in mind that Week 1 Performance Rankings are based solely on last week’s game

One of the teams that is a PossessionPoints favorite to make the Super Bowl, the New Orleans Saints, disappointed us with a Yellow with a 22.02 Performance Ranking despite winning the game. They earned only the 13th spot in the Performance Rankings.

Fantasy Football Expected Values

2008-09-04T15:37:00.000-07:00

This is the last tutorial video of our series about how PossessionPoints.com can enhance your football experience. This video focuses on our unique Fantasy information that can help Fantasy Players win. Enjoy

Big Games of Week 1 of 2008

2008-09-04T08:23:00.000-07:00

So you are thinking, “What Big Games? It is week 1. It doesn’t matter one way or another what happens in any games this week.”

Well, to some degree you are right, as one loss isn’t going to ruin any team’s season. Just look at the Giants last season. They started 0-2 and won the Super Bowl, so what does this week matter?

The regular season is only 16 games long and every win is precious. Every win puts your team one step closer to its dream of post season play and perhaps the Super Bowl. Plus, the confidence that can be gained in a couple of early wins can’t be underestimated. Would the Packers, a team full of youth last season (other than Favre) had the season it had in 2007 had the Eagles caught a punt in their first game of the season and actually won that game? And with one more win the Eagles would have been 9-7 instead of 8-8 and perhaps in the playoffs as the wild card instead of the Redskins. So, while it may seem unimportant at the time, what happens in week 1 could turn out to be the game your team needed to make the playoffs.

With that said, let’s highlight a couple of games that could make the difference of making or missing the playoffs. We start with Thursday night’s game between the Giants and Redskins. The Giants are fresh off their Super Bowl win, but they are starting the season with a division opponent. They play in perhaps the toughest division in the NFL (AFC South fans have a good counter argument), so every win or loss could be crucial. Our preseason preview has the Giants as the second wild card team with a 10-6 record, and it also has them them winning this opening game as does our Match Up Page which is based on preseason performance data. A loss in this game and a potential 9-7 record could cost the Giants a return to the playoffs. They could pick up a win in a future game we are expecting them to lose, but the Giants are the Champions and no matter what their record is, other teams want to beat the defending Champs. Any shake in confidence this early in the season or any loss could make them realize that 2008 is not 2007, and that little doubt could spiral a team down quickly.

Another big game on the slate this week is the game between the Saints and the Bucs. The Bucs won the division last season but many prognostications including our preseason preview have great things forecast for the Saints. Our preview issue is projecting a 13-3 mark with the Saints winning the opening day contest with the Bucs. However, our Match Up page does have the Bucs taking this game. So, if the Bucs win at New Orleans, Tampa Bay could pave the way for a better season than we currently expect. We forecast them to be 7-9, but this win would bring up them to 8-8. Obviously, nothing is set in stone about our preseason forecasts, but they have served as a good guide in the past and we expect the same again.

The final “big game” we want to talk about is the Jaguars vs. Titans. Our preseason forecast went out on a limb here and forecast the Jags to unseat the Colts as the top of this division. Our preseason issue also has the Titans winning, but our Match Up page (again data based on preseason performance) has the Jags taking this contest. However, it also forecast the AFC South to be the “other” division where every team plays .500 or better. This game could show us if the Jags are all that our numbers thought they could be or if the Titans are the team that might possibly emerge on the top of the AFC South. At this time, we don’t think the outcome of this particular game will affect the playoff chances of either team. We think they both make it, but it could be the signal for which team poses the greatest threat to take the division away from the Colts who seem to win it every year.

Each week, PossessionPoints.com will highlight games we think will be important in terms of the playoffs and you can see from our discussions above that even in week 1 games can be important. Rest assured, every week there will be at least 1 big game and PossessionPoints will highlight it, bring you our analysis and tell you what the outcome may mean for the teams. Let’s have a great 2008!

Fantasy Football - The Dynamic Duo

2008-09-04T06:23:00.000-07:00

So, you had your first draft and now you are waiting for your Fantasy League to go into full swing. People sweat over their first picks, but it is really the subsequent selections week after week that decide whether your team is a winner or a dud.

For years now, the same methods of picking Fantasy teams have held their course. It’s human nature to trust the traditional lists that have been put out by the “Powers that Be” in football. Is there a non-traditional way of picking Fantasy players?

What if out there somewhere loomed a non-traditional, mathematical process that allowed you to see what your potential Fantasy teams faced not only on a weekly basis but on a four-week basis or the remainder of the season basis?

You think that is impossible, but mathematics is an amazing thing. Many sports fans forget about the mathematics involved in football. Oh sure, they can spout statistics after the fact, but they have no idea where those stats come from. Instead, they push the math aside and go with their gut. Now, if you are psychic, go with the gut. But for the rest of us who may lack the sixth sense, we need to let go of the hunches method and find a method that will help us figure out our Fantasy team best.

The idea of Math and Fantasy Football may make a lot of us cringe. Most of us have lived in the hope that what we learned in high school Algebra and Calculus would never have an effect on our lives – ever! But guess what? We do need that math. That math has gone into everything we use from the coffeemaker that gets us going in the morning to the plasma TV that settles us in for the night. If you are so willing to concede the need for the math that goes into these products, why not concede the need for the math that goes into something as entertaining as Fantasy Football?

So, the idea is to embrace mathematics and learn what it can do for you. Appreciate the value of mathematics. It’s a beautiful thing. possessionpoints.com

What our Match Up Page Can Do For You

2008-09-01T11:04:00.000-07:00

We hope you enjoy the third video of our series, "What our Match Up Page Can Do For You!"

The Basics of PossessionPoints.com

2008-08-31T14:12:00.000-07:00

We have talked on many occasions about the value of PossessionPoints as a tool to project weekly NFL winners and as a tool for Fantasy Football Players. In our new video below, we bring another advantage of PossessionPoints to light: its usefulness as an in-game stat. We hope you enjoy the video and learn a little bit more about this stat that is revolutionary to the world of NFL analysis.

The Agony and Ecstasy of the Final Season Cuts

2008-08-29T16:16:00.000-07:00

While many of us can remember the disappointment of getting cut from a high school sports team, few of us can identify with the despair that comes along with getting the axe from the NFL.

Saturday, is final cut day for NFL teams. Everyone must take the rosters down to the final 53 – that is 27 fewer than the 80 hopefuls that started the summer with the dream of playing for a professional team. While players and fans will say the final cuts are part of the business of football, we have to feel badly for the aspiring would-be NFL stars who will find themselves on the unemployment line, ironically during Labor Day weekend.

Undoubtedly, there will be some cut players who will find a job on other teams who have spots to fill due to injuries, and there will even be some who make a team’s practice squad which will keep their NFL hopes alive for another year. Every season, we also hear of the newly signed player whose dream was miraculously resurrected midseason by a team desperate for a position filler. Frequently, these lucky few Cinderella players seem to be liberated from construction gigs or jobs with UPS or some other employment that was far removed from the NFL world. We like these stories because they create the drama that is the NFL

While we at PossessionPoints.com make our money studying and projecting the wins and losses of NFL teams and applying our stat analysis to the elite performers of the league with our Fantasy Football player values, we never want to forget the individuals who pour their heart and soul into these teams hoping to make their mark. Yes, football is a business and yes, these athletes know the score. But as the season openers approach, we want to take the time to recognize and applaud all those who gave their dream a shot.

PossessionPoints.com Goes YouTube

2008-08-25T17:13:00.000-07:00

Yes, we are now You Tube Mavens. Well, maybe not mavens, but we are getting there. PossessionPoints.com has posted our first instructional video entitled “A Quick Tour of PossessionPoints.com.”

In this video, we explain the basics of PossessionPoints from what exactly is a PossessionPoint to how it can enhance all your football activities. We hope you take a few minutes to watch our presentation below and learn about the many benefits we offer.

We are going to do a series of quick and simple videos over the next few weeks highlighting the many aspects of PossessionPoints.com. As usual, we welcome your comments. Please feel free to send us an email with your questions or feedback at info@possessionpoints.com

Which Division is the Best in the NFL?

2008-08-17T19:28:00.000-07:00

We were polishing off our Preseason Preview Issue at PossessionPoints.com when it struck us that two of the divisions in the NFL are lacking the typical weak teams that often give the rest of the division the easy wins they need to pump up their season records. With so much strength in these divisions, it is difficult to predict which team will finish first - or fourth for that matter- as they each present unique and potent threats. Frequently, when there is a difficult division, those teams fight it out among themselves and their records cluster around .500 with the winners being slightly above and the losers slightly below.

This year, the two tough divisions will be taking their crushing strength outside to other league opponents. We forecast all the teams in the NFC East and the AFC South to finish above .500 which is rarely seen in the same division. We also think that both Wildcards from each of the conferences will come from those two divisions (another rare event). The NFC East is composed of the Cowboys, Giants, Eagles and Redskins. The AFC South includes the Colts, Jaguars, Titans and Texans. People may wonder about the Texans finishing above .500, but the improvements they have shown under Coach Gary Kubiak were enough for our computer algorithms to propel them to a 9-7 projected record in 2008.

When we saw such strength, we had to pose the question to fans on the Web, “Who do you think is the strongest division?” We actually have the NFC East and AFC South pretty even performing well above and beyond any other division. Our analysis makes us feel sorry for the AFC North who have to play both the NFC East and AFC South this season. This is why our projections are for the Steelers to have the toughest schedule in the league this year with the Bengals, Browns and Ravens not too far behind.

Further details and insight into the strength of the divisions as well as projections on all teams are available in our Preseason Preview Issue at PossessionPoints.com.

Sizing Up Rookie Running Backs

2008-08-11T18:27:00.000-07:00

Will Darren McFadden be this year’s Adrian Peterson? Will anybody be? Most likely not, but the more important question for Fantasy players is: will McFadden have star Fantasy potential. McFadden is but one piece of the puzzle that Fantasy players will need to size up before their draft.

Well, as unreliable as “preseason” data is, it is worth looking at week 1 data to see if there might be a diamond in the rough hiding on the bench somewhere. Below is a chart of what the rookie running backs would have been worth in some Fantasy games:

Let’s examine some of them.
Jacob Hester – well the Chargers have 2 running backs on this list: Hester and Marcus Thomas. Hester was their 3rd round pick while Thomas was their 5th round pick. Neither should be expected to turn in big Fantasy numbers behind LT in San Diego. If your league has many bench players you might look at Hester as a back-up.

Chris Johnson – the Titans probably feel pretty good about their #1 draft pick. Johnson was taken 24th overall, and like McFadden, he might turn into a rookie running back that may actually have some fantasy value. He will be a “complement” to LenDale White to start the season, but if Johnson keeps having games like “preseason game 1”, he may earn a greater role. Look for him as a potential sleeper.

Mike Hart – Hart had a nice game and was a capable college back, but the Colts 6th round draft pick will probably spend more time on the bench than the field this year. He had a good preseason game, but don’t expect Hart to add up the Fantasy Points this season.

Tashard Choice – The Cowboys must be thrilled with the performance of their 4th round pick as well as their 1st round pick Felix Jones who was also on the list a little below. Of the two rookies, Jones is more likely to have Fantasy value this year, and with Julius Jones gone, Felix may get his carries. We would expect Marion Barber to be the main man in the backfield with Jones the first replacement and Choice after that.

Tim Hightower – While Cardinal brass probably feels good about their 5th round draft pick, don’t expect Hightower to have too many fantasy performances like preseason week 1 especially if Edgerrin James is healthy.

So we will skip further down the chart to Darren McFadden – the Oakland Raider’s 1st round draft pick was the top running back taken. Many people expect he will have immediate Fantasy value. Preseason game 1 McFadden got a fair amount of first half action, but he didn’t exactly ring up numbers that would make Fantasy managers race to rework their draft priorities.

Right below McFadden on the list is a guy who has had to prove himself at every level. Steve Slaton was a relatively high draft pick taken in the third round, but Fantasy advisors around the nation are telling their faithful to avoid him. The Texans website lists Slaton 5th on their depth chart and were it not for his 4 kickoff returns for a total of 90+ yards, you might wonder if the Texans third round choice will even make the team. But Slaton was in a similar position his freshman year at West Virginia. Injuries forced him into the lineup and he never got out. Could the same thing happen in the NFL? We don’t know. We wouldn’t have him on our opening day Fantasy roster either, but PossessionPoints.com will keep an eye on the super sleeper from Houston.

How Much Difference Does A Favre Make?

2008-08-07T06:01:00.000-07:00

What Difference Does a Favre Make? I guess this is the question that is burning in the minds of NFL fans and teams everywhere. But according to PossessionPoints the answer is: Not as much as we might have thought. Sorry, Favre devotees, but this is what we have learned while working on our Preseason Preview issue these past few weeks.

We had thought we had accounted for all the major shifts of players. We had adjusted the Green Bay PossessionPoints Offense and Defense numbers down to account for the retirement of Brett Favre. Then, with Brett un-retiring, we thought that perhaps we had to just undo those adjustments. However, when we saw that the Green Bay staff was not welcoming Favre back with open arms, we realized that they must really see something they like in Aaron Rodgers since they stuck to their guns and finally traded Favre to the New York Jets after a three-week drama-fest that rivaled the story lines on Days of Our Lives. So, we had to reconsider and re-adjust our numbers again to not only suit the new situation in Green Bay but in New York as well.

What does Favre’s addition to the Jets do? Initially, we were expecting the Jets to have a pretty dismal year, so we had made 0 adjustments to their PossessionPoints numbers over last season. With the arrival of Favre, we went back to our program and adjusted the Jets’ PossessionPoints Offense numbers up 25% and the Defense up 5%. What was the impact of that adjustment? Not as much as one would think. The new numbers brought the Jets up to just a 5-11 record. For curiosity sake, we wanted to see how much of an effect Favre needed to have on the Jets for them to get into the playoffs. We pushed up the PossessionPoints Offensive improvement to 50% (a generous number), and the Jets’ projected record went to 9-7 which still misses the playoffs. So, we bumped up their PossessionPoints improvement to 55% and that still put them at 9-7. Okay, we had some fun and cranked their improvement numbers to 60%. Finally, that gave us a significant jump in the Jets’ projections. With that extreme adjustment of numbers upwards, the Jets finally become an 11-5 playoff team.

Now, we don't know about you, and perhaps we were being a little unfair by not improving the Jets before they acquired Favre, but even with the addition of Favre, we don't really expect the Jets to improve their Offensive PossessionPoints performance by 60%. As we were playing with adjustments, we thought it was interesting that the biggest impact of Favre moving to NY seemed to be on the NFC West, Yes, that's right, just how good the Jets and Bills are this season may well determine whether or not the Seahawks or Cardinals rise to the top of the NFC West. We had a tie-breaker situation with the Seahawks and Cardinals with both their records at 9-7. As we adjusted the Jets’ performance upwards, they first beat the Cardinals giving the division to the Seahawks. Then, as we adjusted their PossessionPoints numbers up further, the Jets beat the Seahawks which puts Cardinals and Seahawks back into a tie-breaking situation.

Hopefully, these are the last preseason Favre adjustments anyone has to make. Maybe, now we can all just get back to football – the sport – not the drama behind it.

PossessionPoints.com Season Preview Issue

2008-07-31T04:35:00.000-07:00

PossessionPoints.com will release its Preseason Preview issue on August 18th. As always, PossessionPoints.com is a paper-free and environmentally conscious company. Our e-magazine Issue goes beyond the typical pre-season information. We analyze every team and project their performances based on not only their last season’s PossessionPoints but changes made in personnel and coaching. The Preseason Preview is a valuable tool to have during the season.

Remember, new to the 2008 season is our in-depth and unique coverage of Fantasy Football. Using a new analysis method, PossessionPoints.com will forecast individual player values on a one-week, four-week and remainder of season basis. This is an essential and invaluable tool for serious Fantasy players. As with our team coverage, PossessionPoints.com uses its easy red,yellow and green color-coded graphics to tell you exactly which player is the hot pick.

Of course, during the season, our members will receive via e-mail, their weekly matchup pages that project winners both straight up and against the spread, as well as performance rankings based on the PossessionPoints stat. Subscribers have access to our Members area where they can view trend lines and more detailed information on their favorite teams.

Look to our site or blog for team and player information in the coming weeks.

Disgruntled Players on the Move

2008-07-21T18:19:00.000-07:00

Let the games begin! Already this week, NFL players, who have made it clear that they are unhappy with their teams, have made bold moves to find a team they like more. The first players to participate in the “I don’t like where I am and I want a new team” game are Jason Taylor of the Miami Dolphins and Jeremy Shockey of the New York Giants.

Jason Taylor’s switch from Miami to Washington came out of a legitimate need for Washington to find a Defensive End. On the opening day of the Redskins’ training camp last Saturday, Washington lost veteran Defensive End Phillip Daniels to a season-ending knee injury. What activity caused such a severe injury on the first day of camp is not quite known, but it left Washington in a lurch. Enter Jason Taylor who had indicated to Miami on several occasions that he wanted to be traded to a contender. If that did not come to pass, his playing days would probably be over after this year. When Taylor found out about the Redskins’ needs and their interest in him he extended his playing time for at least another two seasons. To acquire Jason Taylor, the Redskins gave up a second round draft pick in 2009 and a sixth round draft pick in 2010. All in all, PossessionPoints.com feels this was a bargain for the Redskins as Taylor is a six-time Pro Bowl player and is still in great playing condition.

This week the Giants also got rid of a disgruntled teammate when they traded Jeremy Shockey to the New Orleans Saints. Shockey has made no effort to hide his displeasure for both Giants’ management and Giants’ Quarterback, Eli Manning. It’s funny to note that when Shockey was an active Giant, Manning stumbled in his efforts to become a top-notch player. However, as soon as Shockey and his loud opinions found themselves disabled, Manning began to show off his obvious talent and less obvious leadership ability and led the Giants to the Super Bowl. Did Manning’s transformation cause the Giant front office to re-think Shockey’s leadership role on the team?

In the long run, the Giants’ reasoning does not matter. What does matter is that Shockey gets to go play for his former Offensive Coordinator Sean Payton in the Big Easy and the Giants’ get a second and fifth-round draft pick.
Player moves such as these is why PossessionPoints.com does not rush to put out our Preseason Preview issue. What do you think about this trade? Do you think the Giants made a good deal or do you think Shockey was too valuable a player to give up? We would love to know your opinion.

PossessionPoints.com adds Upickem to its site in 2008

2008-07-18T17:53:00.000-07:00

One of the newest features in PossessionPoints.com this season is the addition of the Upickem contest. Players can sign on to play the weekly contest through PossessionPoints.com’s website. The contest is free to all. There is no need to be a PossessionPoints subscriber. However, once you are on the site, feel free to see what PossessionPoints.com can offer you as an NFL fan or Fantasy Football player. As a subscriber, you will receive weekly matchup pages for all NFL teams plus individual analysis of each NFL player on a weekly and 4-week basis.

After you sign on to the Upickem site, you will be eligible to win UPickem’s weekly national prize and their season-long prize as well. Those who sign on to Upickem through PossessionPoints.com will also be eligible for some surprises from PossessionPoints.com as well.

Join the fun and come on board with PossessionPoints.com this season. Details are on our website at http://possessionpoints.com

Sneak Peak at PossessionPoints Fantasy Data

2008-07-13T06:39:00.000-07:00

Previously we announced that PossessionPoints.com was expanding into Fantasy Football player data. We told people that we would be compiling lists by position of “expected values”. This is a new concept, so we are going to take the time to explain what “expected values” are in more detail.

Did you ever wish that you could figure out how a player would do by factoring in not only his performance but the performance of the defense he was playing against? Even if you took the time to do this for one player, could you take the time to do the same thing for all the players in the same position throughout the league? When you see a “list” of the top 20 players by position, do you ever wish you knew how much number 5 was worth relative to number 1 or number 10 on the list? Anyone who plays Fantasy Football can see the advantage in this type of knowledge.

Well, PossessionPoints can help the fantasy player attain this knowledge and more by analyzing all the data and help you, the fantasy player pick the best team each week. Below are 3 example lists for wide receivers based on 2007 data (obviously, no 2008 rookies are on these lists yet), and the 2008 schedule. (Off-season player trades and moves have yet to be incorporated into the data base but will be put in prior to most Fantasy Football drafts). The lists below contain the top 10 expected value performers for the first week, the first 4 weeks, and the remainder of the season (which right now is the full season).

This information will help you plan your team whether you are playing a traditional Fantasy game or a “player market” game like Rotohog. (Click on the Rotohog icon to go to their site and find out more about their game, take it from us, it is a lot of fun
)

In the typical PossessionPoints style, we give you information with colors as well as numbers. As with our regular PossessionPoints stat that shows NFL team winner and loser projections, "Red" means a bad performance, "Yellow" means a so-so performance and "Green" means a good performance. In our Fantasy Football stat, we have omitted "Yellow" for now. The Red and Green in the Fantasy Football stat conveys information about the Defenses that the player is up against. For example, take Terrell Owens. His 16.10 points is above the value we would have expected if he were up against an “average” pass defense in week 1. Likewise, his average performance is helped by the pass defense numbers of the first 4 opponents. Based on the numbers or just the color-coded graphs, Owens would just edge out Randy Moss for the first week. If you are not a numbers person, don't fret. Look to the colors as your guide.

Randy Moss’s 4-week number is hurt by the fact that the Patriots have a BYE in week 4. When Week 4 arrives that bye week would be highlighted in “Red”. However, as you see from the remainder of the season chart, we would expect Moss to be the top producer at WR in 2008 based on his 2007 data and 2008 schedule.

So, if you are a Fantasy player who tends to draft, hold and hope for the best, then you would love to get one of the top 7 wide receivers for the season. If you look at the charts, you see a 20-point fall off between Jennings and Boldin. The big question with Jennings is: will he be as productive if Favre isn’t throwing to him. Time will tell and his number could change drastically based on early 2008 data. If you actively manage your team with trades or purchases (like the Rotohog game) then you will be much more focused on the “next week” and “next 4 weeks charts”.

Oh so much to talk about and oh so little space. Go to http://www.possessionpoints.com/ for more info. As the season approaches we will post much more info.

PossessionPoints.com Gives Fantasy Football players a new and accurate way to pick their players

2008-06-17T19:00:00.000-07:00

PossessionPoints.com Gives Fantasy Football players a new and accurate way to pick their players

A New Statistic that assigns values to players on a weekly and four-week basis

PossessionPoints.com® announces a brand new statistic to help Fantasy Football players pick their teams accurately and easily. PossessionPoints.com assigns an estimated value to each NFL player on not only a weekly basis, but on a continuous four-week basis.

Last season, PossessionPoints.com amazed football fans and broadcasters with its new stat that challenged traditional NFL analysis. PossessionPoints.com uses unique red, yellow and green indicators to show fans how their favorite teams are performing. Subscribers to PossessionPoints.com receive weekly re-caps of games, projections of NFL winners and losers, and Performance Rankings based on the PossessionPoints stat. “This year we are embracing Fantasy Football as well,” explained Ed Cavanagh co-founder of PossessionPoints.com and developer of the stats. “Our Fantasy Football stat goes beyond a one-week analysis of each player. We give Fantasy players a four-week peek into the future. That is unique in the Fantasy Football game.”

Take a Free Look at 2007 Team Data for the Giants or Patriots

2008-01-31T15:56:00.000-08:00

To Celebrate the Super Bowl,PossessionPoints.com is opening up its doors for all who want to see the 2007 data on the Giants or Patriots or any other team for that matter. To access this info, go to our site, and click on the quick links to go to the Giants or Patriots page or go to the drop down menu to view the stats on any team you prefer.

While the 2007 is coming to an end, PossessionPoints.com is gearing up for the next season. Exciting addtions and changes are coming to the site including the previousy announced Fantasy Football data and a team-by-team draft preview as well as a post-draft score card on how the teams did relative to their PossessionPoints determined needs. This will lead us to another big, bold PRESEASON PREVIEW ISSUE. For those who subscribed last season, you will recall that we picked the Patriots to win the Super Bowl before the first Pre-season game was played.

PossessionPoints.com Expanding into Fantasy Football Player Rankings

2008-01-16T16:18:00.000-08:00

Fantasy Football Players, be prepared to be amazed! PossessionPoints has added to its list of accurate data analysis, a fantasy football player ranking program that will not only give you a player’s projected value for the following week but a player’s projected value for the following four-week period. This will be invaluable information to players no matter what league in which they play.

The four-week program analysis helps players adjust their team easily knowing what is ahead beyond the next week. Using PossessionPoints to make team and player selections, minimizes the uncertainty players face every week.

One of the founders of PossessionPoints.com refined the team statistic which was successful in its own right taking him from 588th to 28th in a 600-player league. The further tweaking of the stat will prove even more accurate.

If you are a serious Fantasy Football Player who is always looking for a new method of picking winning players, subscribe to PossessionPoints for the 2008 season at PossessionPoints.com or sign up for free information on the right side of this page. We will happily send you updates on PossessionPoints and our new Fantasy Player analysis during the off-season. As always, feel free to shoot us an email or comment.

Below is our current Relative Performance Rankings for NFL teams. We will bring the same type of specific information to our Fantasy analysis as we do to our NFL team analysis. It won’t just be a list. You will see a value that will allow you to separate and identify players that will help your fantasy team win. The PossessionPoints analysis will also help you identify which players are interchangeable or have achieved similar values.

PossessionPoints.com Has Playoffs Pegged

2008-01-14T17:05:00.000-08:00

During the Playoffs so far, PossessionPoints.com is 7-1 straight and 4-0 this week. Since so many have wondered how PossessionPoints works, we thought we would take this opportunity to share our picking methods. Obviously, much more detail is on our website, PossessionPoints.com, but this is a quick overview for your information.

PossessionPoints.com uses its in-game stat to evaluate upcoming matchups. We use a variety of methods to examine how teams will fare against each other. The primary method we use is to look at teams'offensive, defensive and net matchups for their last game, season average and a four-week moving average. We see which team the majority of these comparisons favor and make them our "straight up" pick.

In the second method, we convert PossessionPoints to a score equivalent and compare the two teams. The difference is how many points we think one team will score over the other. The table below is what we published on our Members Page on Tuesday before Playoff Week Two games. As you can see, our numbers indicated that the Patriots were 6.7 points better than the Jaguars so we had the Jaguars and the points.

The one imperfection in the chart above is that our ATS method thought the game between the Seahawks and Packers was going to be close -only a 0.4 difference. Therefore, we had the Seahawks with the points.

We were quite surprised when the two methods picked the Giants and Chargers to win their games. The ATS method actually had the Chargers 9.2 points better than the Colts. So, we were certainly taking the Chargers with the points. In the Giants-Cowboys game, we saw another close game, but we still saw the Giants as 1.6 points better than the Cowboys.

The numbers have surprised us several times this season, and typically when they did surprise us, an upset followed. If you want to see our picks for this week, we have a special offer active on our members page as well as the ability to sign up for next season and get this week and the Super Bowl this year.

As usual, we invite feedback and questions. If you want to find out more about PossessionPoints.com during the off-season, you can watch this blog or give us your email address on the right side of this page. We will gladly send you updates and important NFL info.

PossessionPoints Season Final Performance Rankings

2008-01-09T15:09:00.000-08:00

The top five Performance Rankings for the Season according to PossessionPoints.com are the Patriots, Steelers, Jaguars, Colts and Packers. All these teams made the playoffs. In fact, we have highlighted in blue the teams that made the playoffs. We have been telling you all season that this Relative Performance Measure (RPM) is an objective measure of a team’s ability to win football games. The proof is in the fact that 11 of our top 14 teams made the playoffs. The only playoff team not in the top half of the chart was the Bucs who, like the Titans at 12 and Redskins at 14, were eliminated in the first round of the playoffs.

In the included chart, you will see each team, their win-loss record and the PossessionPoints measure of relative performance which is colored green, yellow or red. A green chart indicates a positive and strong team performance. A yellow chart indicates a mediocre to fair performance and a red chart tells the tale of trouble ahead.

These Performance Ratings are unique because they are based on in-game stats that are present in each game every week. Not present in these performance ratings are any opinion and or subjective measure of any type. At the bottom of the pack for the season are the Rams, Dolphins, Jets and 49ers. The Dolphins will be holding the number one draft pick this year and they get Bill Parcells at the helm. These factors cannot hurt them next season.

Despite not making the playoffs, the near-miss playoff teams -- The Eagles, Saints and Cardinals, who were also in our top 14 – shouldn’t despair too much about their season. They were right in the mix of high-performance teams, but circumstances just kept them out of reach from postseason activity.

A PossessionPoints Tale of Two Teams

2008-01-09T14:48:00.000-08:00

With all the hype of New England’s perfect season, many football fans are unaware that a threat does exist for the Patriots and that threat is called the Jacksonville Jaguars. Since November, we, at PossessionPoints, have extolled the virtues of this Florida team and their ability to post a lot of Green on their PossessionPoints charts. What does this Green mean? The Green means that the Jaguars have been able to sustain long drives that result in a lot of points while preventing their opposition from doing the same. Needless to say, this is a recipe for winning football games no matter who is the opponent. (See their team chart below)

While we are still high on the Jaguars, we want to say here that their first playoff game against the Steelers was a below par performance for this team They veered from their strategy that has served them so well this season. Instead of sticking with the long, methodical drives, they jumped to attempts at quick-strike scores which made them have to rely on their defense for scoring as well. Had it not been for the defense coming to the rescue, it would be the Steelers playing the Patriots this week. The Jaguars had only one of their signature drives against the Steelers – an eight-play, 82-yard, 4:45 drive in the third quarter.

Below you can also view the Patriots’ chart. This team is no stranger to PossessionPoints Green either. But New England has fewer games than the Jaguars are “Green Sweeps” or Green in all PossessionPoints categories. The Patriots had only three “Green Sweeps” this season while the Jaguars earned seven. Unfortunately for the Jaguars, amidst their “Green Sweeps”, they had two games that were colored Red in all PossessionPoints categories. Both these games proved to be losses and were against teams with high-powered passing attacks – the Colts and Saints.
Predictably with a record of 16-0, the Patriots had none of these Red games.

So, the end result is this: If you look at the end of the season average at the bottom of the Regular Season Chart, you will see that the Patriots are the stronger offensive team by a wide margin while the Jaguars are a slightly better defensive PossessionPoints team. The Patriots’ offense has earned them a better PossessionPoints Net Effect (offensive PossessionPoints minus Defensive PossessionPoints) than the Jaguars which gives the Patriots an edge in this matchup in our view.

However, keep in mind that when the Jags do put together that consistent, methodical offense, they are a tough, if not impossible, team to beat. Their biggest weakness of late has been their propensity to give up the big plays. If they can curb this new habit and eliminate turnovers, they could pull the upset of the season. This will be a fun and exciting game to view.

Why Teams Should Fear the Jaguars

2007-12-28T11:35:00.000-08:00

Back in November, we wrote a blog about how a team could beat the Patriots. Our scenario called for the Jaguars to beat the Colts and meet the Patriots in an AFC Championship game after getting a playoff bye. Alas, the victory over the Colts did not occur and the Colts own the playoff bye that we thought was essential for the Jaguars. Other than that game against the Colts, the Jaguars have performed perfectly winning six of their final seven games.

In those six victories, the Jaguars have earned five PossessionPoints Green Sweeps (See chart below). A Green Sweep represents both an effective offense and defense. For the season, the Jaguars have posted seven Green Sweeps which is more than any other team in the NFL. The Perfect-as-of-now Patriots have only posted three, and the Colts have done a little better posting four Green Sweeps.

Why are the Jaguars so effective? Jacksonville’s offense has repeatedly been able to put together successful, clock-eating long drives that have led to touchdowns or field goals. These possessions have not only put points on the scoreboard but allowed the defense to rest and be productive as well. PossessionPoints first noticed the Jaguars penchant for long-possession drives back in Week Three in their game against the Broncos. Since that time, they have become more proficient and consistent at this offense.

At PossessionPoints, we use color-coded indicators which have a direct relationship to a team’s ability to win. For example: A win in the offense column will equate to a team winning 75 percent of the time. A green in the defense column equates to a win 80 percent of the time, and a green net (difference between offensive and defensive PossessionPoints) is a win more than 90 percent of the time. With this explanation, you can see the significance of the Green Sweep and more importantly, the significance of the Jaguars’ Green Sweeps.

We hear commentators on the major sports networks now saying how nobody wants to face the Jaguars in the playoffs. This is an old tune to us as we have been saying this since early November. If teams in the playoffs are not successful in completing big plays against Jacksonville, they will find themselves going home.

The biggest weakness the Jaguars have demonstrated is their inability to stop big plays. One of the most notable examples of this was in the Steelers’ game where the Jags won but by only one touchdown despite being tied in the fourth quarter. Another “weaker” performance for the Jaguars was against the Colts in a game that would have propelled Jacksonville into first place in the division. The Jaguars earned more than twice the PossessionPoints of the Colts (224-102) but lost 28-25 due to the big play, quick-strike force of Peyton Manning which took the Jaguars defense off guard.

As always, we welcome your feedback and opinions. Enjoy the last week of the NFL regular season, and if you would like to know more about PossessionPoints, visit our website at http://www.possesssionpoints.com/ or fill in your email address on the right side of this page for free information. Just so you know, PossessionPoints.com will always respect your privacy and does not sell any email addresses.

PossessionPoints.com NFL Big Games for Week 17

2007-12-27T13:48:00.000-08:00

The only big game in the AFC this week is the Colts vs. Titans on Sunday Night. The Colts have made it clear that they could care less about the outcome of this game. Tony Dungy will not keep Peyton Manning in the game for long, and he will rest many of his starters to keep them healthy for the playoffs. This is a big plus for the Titans who need this win to get into the playoffs.

Should the Titans lose by some strange chance to the Colts’ second and third string, the Cleveland Browns will take the Playoff Spot. If the Titans are a potential playoff team, there should be no problem securing this victory, but once again, the NFL is always full of surprises.

On the NFC side, the Redskins vs. Cowboys is probably the biggest game on the slate. As with the Titans, if the Redskins win, they secure the final playoff spot in the NFC. The Cowboys’ situation mirrors the Colts. In recent weeks, they too have suffered costly injuries and need to nurse key players back to health especially, Romo and Owens. While Wade Phillips has not mentioned how he will play his starters, it stands to reason that he will provide them with some rest to get them back to as close to 100% as possible. Unlike the Titans, the Redskins have the home field advantage.

Should the Redskins falter, the Vikings vs. Broncos game in Denver is the next big contest to watch. Should Washington lose and the Vikings win, The Vikings would get the last playoff spot. Without Washington losing, Minnesota does not stand a chance of sneaking into the playoffs.

For those of you who enjoy the real long shot or maybe a miracle would be a better term, there is another team praying that Washington and Minnesota both take a dive. That team is the New Orleans Saints who will be playing in Chicago against the Bears. This is not an easy win as Chicago has turned up their playing heat for no other reason than pride or maybe just to be a nudge to anyone who has a chance to make the playoffs.

We can’t let this blog close without mentioning the last game on this week’s schedule that has any significance. The Saturday night game where the Patriots visit the Meadowlands to visit the “how-did-they-get-so-far-playing-as-they-have” Giants. This game’s significance is only because of New England’s perfect record. We have seen the Giants pull many games out of the magic hat this year, but this one victory would truly shock us because both teams should be thinking about protecting their star players for the postseason. Although the Patriots say they have no quest for perfection, we cannot imagine that they would let the last game of “the perfect season” slip away.

This is our last Big Games blog of the regular season. After this week, we will obviously blog on the playoffs which are all big games. Also, keep in mind that PossessionPoints will blog on NFL issues and teams during the offseason.

PossessionPoints.com NFL Week 15 Performance Rankings

2007-12-19T16:23:00.000-08:00

In looking at this week’s performance rankings, PossessionPoints.com has noted some significant movement by at least one team – the Jaguars. The Jaguars are now in the third position, and their Relative Performance Measures (RPM) has improved to 46 from last week’s 40.

In the included chart, you will see each team, their win-loss record and the PossessionPoints measure of relative performance which is colored green, yellow or red. A green chart indicates a positive and strong team performance. A yellow chart indicates a mediocre to fair performance and a red chart tells the tale of trouble ahead.

These Performance Ratings are unique because they are based on in-game stats that are present in each game every week. Not present in these performance ratings are any opinion and or subjective measure of any type.

In week 15, the Steelers have maintained their second position but their RPM has dropped from 62 down to 49. The only thing we can find to try and pin this drop on is the weather; however, the Jaguars, a Florida team, didn’t seem to have the same problems with the snow as the hometown Steelers. The Packers moved into fourth position but this wasn’t so much to them improving their RPM as it was due to the Colts’ and Cowboys’ RPM fading.

Our projected standing s now think they have the playoff picture clear. The NFC division winners are already decided and our projections have the Giants and Vikings both finishing at 10-6 and taking the other two wildcard spots. The next best teams we see finishing at 8-8. These teams have a gap of two games with two to play, so two wins would be needed to prove our standings wrong.

In the AFC, our projections have the Steelers winning the AFC North with the Jaguars and Browns getting the two AFC wildcards. Our projection has the Browns finishing 10-6, and the Titans (the only other team alive for a wildcard) we have finishing two games back at 8-8.

As always, we invite your comments and feedback. Also, if you would like to receive free information and updates, type in your name and email on the right side of the page.

PossessionPoints.com NFL Big Games for Week 16

2007-12-19T16:01:00.000-08:00

This week, there are several games with serious implications concerning potential playoff spots. Week 15 games did clarify much of the AFC and some of the NFC although there are two 7-7 teams and one 6-8 team still chasing the Giants and Vikings for the two wildcard berths.

The first game we want to look at is the Redskins at the Vikings. If the Redskins lose this game, they are out of luck and out of the playoffs as are the Carolina Panthers. If the Vikings lose this game, the door stays open for the Panthers, and the Redskins will have a tie record of 8-7 with the Vikings, and a chance to sneak into that wildcard spot. A Redskin win would also prove to be a benefit for the New Orleans Saints – the other 7-7 team in the NFC.

So, with so much on the line for New Orleans, it is no surprise that their game against the Eagles also qualifies as a “Big Game of the Week” even though the Eagles are out of it. The Eagles’ coaching staff is planning on playing the team’s starters including Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook and Brian Dawkins. The Eagles’ coaches have made it clear that they have no intention of handing this game over to the Saints. The unknown factor in this contest is how the Eagles’ players feel about this game. They may be all for the Saints getting in the playoffs – who knows? But since the Saints ended the Eagles’ hopes in the playoffs last year, there is a pretty good chance that the Eagles may want to spoil the Saints’ chances this year. A Vikings’ win coupled with an Eagles’ win will lockdown the NFC playoff picture and give playoff berths to the Giants and Vikings.

We can assume that anything that makes the road easier for the Giants without them actually having to put forth an effort is most likely fine with the Giants. So, if they can climb in the playoffs on the coattails of the Vikings and Eagles—so be it. The Giants had their early season good fortunes, but in the past few weeks, the entire team has looked a bit shaky. While the Giants control their own destiny, this week’s game at Buffalo looks like the opportunity upon which they should seize. It would be easier in the long run to secure their playoff spot this week than next week when they would have to host and beat the Patriots. That is not the game they want to hang their playoff hat on.

On to the AFC: The excitement revolves around the Browns and the Steelers who are tied for the Division in the AFC North. This week, the Browns are at the Bengals. This game is always a high-emotion rivalry, so you can be sure the Bengals are not giving this one away. Meanwhile, the Steelers visit the St. Louis Rams who have showed some life in the last few weeks. For the Steelers, it would have been better for them to face the Rams when the Rams were smack in the middle of their 0-8 start. Now, the Rams want to prove themselves. While this shouldn’t be a tough game for Pittsburgh, the Steelers have demonstrated some proficiency in losing to weak teams. Can anyone spell J-E-T-S?

Waiting in the wings should the Steelers or Browns falter are the 8-6 Titans who would love to steal a final wildcard spot. The Titans are at home this week against the NY Jets. The Jets have been an on and off team (albeit more off than on), but the Titans need to keep their guard up if they want to continue their quest for a final wildcard spot.

If all games break just right for the teams who need the wins, then next week there might not be any big games to worry about as the playoff picture would solidify with this week’s results. As always, PossessionPoints.com welcomes your feedback and comments. By the way, HAPPY HOLIDAYS AND A HAPPY NEW YEAR!!

PossessionPoints.com NFL Week 14 Performance Rankings

2007-12-12T17:31:00.000-08:00

In looking at this week’s performance rankings, we must note that at this time in the season there are three teams with green Relative Performance Measures (RPM) and three teams with red Relative Performance Measures. The rest of the teams have a combination of both. According to the PossessionPoints stat, on an individual game basis, we colored green any RPM number over 40. A team with a green RPM won their game 92% of the time.

In the included chart, you will see each team, their win-loss record and the PossessionPoints measure of relative performance which is colored green, yellow or red. A green chart indicates a positive and strong team performance. A yellow chart indicates a mediocre to fair performance and a red chart tells the tale of trouble ahead.

These Performance Ratings are unique because they are based on in-game stats that are present in each game every week. Not present in these performance ratings are any opinion and or subjective measure of any type.

In week 14, you will notice that the Jaguars moved up to the third position. The Steelers stayed in second place but their RPM dipped considerably due to their embarrassing loss to the Patriots. Despite their win, the Patriots’ RPM number decreased but their first place position remains untouchable. The Colts and Cowboys round out the top five with the Packers right on Dallas’ heels in sixth place followed by the Giants.

We’re interested in what you think, but we at PossessionPoints.com believe the top seven teams represent the cream of the crop of the NFL. Likewise, the bottom five represent the curdled milk of the league, and this group is led by the Dolphins, followed by the 49ers, Jets, Falcons and Rams.

In projected standings, the Cowboys and Packers are both projected to finish out the season with a 14-2 record. This would still give the Cowboys the home field advantage throughout the playoffs. To us, it looks as if the second wildcard playoff spot is literally up for grabs as our projections put four teams–the Vikings, Cardinals, Saints and Eagles – at 8-8. The Vikings truly have a leg up in that they have a winning record of 7-6 while the other three teams are 6-7 or worse. The AFC is starting to look pretty solid with the wildcard teams being the Jaguars and the Browns.

The NFL Surprises of the Year

2007-12-12T16:36:00.000-08:00

In our pre-season preview issue, we asked the question “How do you spell strength in the NFL?” The answer was a brief one: AFC.

Well, we are sorry to say since the pre-season ended, the AFC has not lived up to its reputation as the dominating force it was touted to be. Sure, the AFC is home to the Patriots, Colts and Steelers, but game-for-game, this conference has not put up enough winning performances to be considered the NFL’s stronger conference. Let’s look at some stats and some other inter-conference surprises:

* The AFC and the NFC right now both have 104 wins and losses, which means in inter-conference games, the NFC and AFC are .500 each.

* The NFC Packers, who we didn't expect to be a playoff team - let alone a team with an 11-2 record, will most likely have a first-round bye in the playoffs.

* We expected the Cowboys to be a good team, but we didn’t expect a 12-1 record with a virtual lock on home field throughout the playoffs. In our pre-season preview issue we said we expected them to make the playoffs and win their division, but we had them at 9-7 mostly due to uncertainty surrounding their coaching change. So, I guess you can say Wade Phillips is one of the surprises of the year too.

* Now, the Patriots – they were not a surprise especially to PossessionPoints.com. We said in our preview issue that they appeared to have it all: offense, defense and coaching continuity. Since our human brains thought it was nearly impossible to go 16-0, we kept making adjustments and runs until the computer produced one loss. On the other hand, the computer expected the Ravens to be better this year, and so we had Baltimore beating the Patriots to give them that 15-1 record for the season.

During the next few weeks, we will expound on some of the other surprises that this season had in store for us all. Many of these surprises we touched upon in our pre-season issue, and while those who are not subscribers didn’t receive this issue, take heart. There is always next season to come on board and get the new preview issue plus all our other information.

A quick little note on last week’s games: PossessionPoints.com went 11-5 straight up for our picks.

PossessionPoints.com NFL Big Games for Week 15

2007-12-11T17:03:00.000-08:00

Well, after the disappointing, one-sided game between the Steelers and Patriots last week, you may be thinking “Okay, what kind of big games can torment us this week?” Guess what? There are plenty and most of these contenders are playing for the coveted wildcard spots. In other words, if they lose this week, their postseason play is truly in jeopardy if not a mathematical impossibility.

The first big game we want to talk about is the Bills vs. Browns being played in Cleveland. Besides the uphill battle of foreign turf, the Bills are chasing those very Browns for the wildcard spot. The Browns have more than the wildcard on their minds. Cleveland is only one game behind the Steelers in the AFC North division race. This would have been a very different playoff race picture had the Steelers been able to back up Anthony Smith’s mouth and come with a win against New England. Since that did not happen, Pittsburgh has to keep a close eye on who is right behind them – the Browns.

This brings us to our next big game in the AFC, the Steelers vs. the Jaguars in Pittsburgh. We have been saying for weeks to look out for the Jaguars. This game pits two 9-4 teams against each other, and it also may be a preview of an early-round playoff game. The Jaguars can possibly avoid this playoff matchup as a win could help Cleveland steal the division from the Steelers. The Jags should approach this contest as a playoff game and use it to measure their abilities as an on-the-road team which no doubt will be their lot in the playoffs.

Now, on to the NFC! Their playoff picture is one big mess. While the division titles are pretty much decided, the wildcard race is a muddled quagmire of should-be and could-be teams. Right now, the Giants and Vikings have the upper hand with the Giants needing only one win to lock up a playoff spot. The Giants are playing at home against the Redskins – a division rival with very slim playoff hopes. The Redskins are currently sitting at 6-7, a game behind the Vikings at 7-6. However, the Lions, Cardinals and Saints are also at 6-7. A Giant win would virtually eliminate the Redskins while a Giant loss would keep the Redskin hopes alive without doing great damage to New York as they would still have two more chances to secure the playoff spot.

The Vikings vs. Bears in Minnesota is a big game but only for the Vikings. The Bears at 5-8 are starting yet another new quarterback, and their playoff hopes are as dim as the hopes of the Eagles and Panthers — the other two 5-8 teams. The Vikings have turned their season around, and their last six games were much better than their first five which is why they are in the playoff run. Our full-season statistics do not show Minnesota in a very favorable light. However, when we break it down and analyze their late-season performance vs. their early-season performance, it is obvious that the Vikings have found the bug in their program and fixed it.

The Saints vs. Cardinals in New Orleans is a matchup between two of the 6-7 teams. This is an instance where the losing team will probably stay home for the playoffs while the winner will move to a .500 record and into the thick of the playoff hunt. While Saints’ fans may have their hopes up that the Bucs are only two games in front of them at 8-5, they should not get their hopes up as the Bucs’ remaining games are against the Falcons, 49ers and Panthers – not the most difficult schedule in the league as these teams have a combined record of 11-28. We think the Bucs are pretty safe as the NFC South Champs.

If you are interested in seeing the projections of PossessionPoints.com in regard to these big games, go to our subscriber page and sign up. Special holiday pricing is available. You can also sign up for free information by giving us your name and email address located on the right side of this page. We welcome your feedback and your thoughts here on what you think are big games and why.

PossessionPoints Week 13 NFL Performance Rankings

2007-12-05T16:43:00.000-08:00

The top five Performance Rankings for Week 13 according to PossessionPoints.com are the Patriots, Steelers, Cowboys, Colts and Giants. The Jaguars edged out the Packers for the number six spot, and they are just percentage points behind the Giants ready to pounce to take over the number five position.

Performance Rankings are based on in-game statistics that measure a team's offensive performance. These statistics take into account such elements as the scoring drive, the points scored and time of possession. In the included chart, you will see each team, their win-loss record and the PossessionPoints measure of relative performance which is colored green, yellow or red. A green chart indicates a positive and strong team performance. A yellow chart indicates a mediocre to fair performance and a red chart tells the tale of trouble ahead.

These Performance Ratings are unique because they are based on in-game stats that are present in each game every week. Not present in these performance ratings are any opinion and or subjective measure of any type.

At the bottom of the pack this week are the Dolphins, 49ers, Jets, Bills and Rams. The Jets moved out of the cellar and up three places while the Dolphins took their rightful place at the bottom of the league with their 0-12 record. It is interesting to see that as a purely stat-based measure, with no subjective criteria, PossessionPoints successfully sorts out the number one team and the number 32 team. Numerically, this gives even more credence to how the stat sorts out the teams in the middle as well as its role as a tool for projections and predictions.

Now that we have 12 weeks of the season completed, the playoff picture is starting to sort itself out. Our projected division winners are no surprise to anyone: the Cowboys, Packers, Bucs and Seahawks in the NFC, and the Patriots, Colts, Steelers and Chargers in the AFC. The tiebreakers are wear our projected standings get interesting. Currently, we project the Giants will finish with a 11-5 record and take one wildcard slot and the Cardinals will emerge from the pack of 6-6 and 5-7 teams to grab the other wildcard spot. The Cardinals can’t breathe too easily because we see the Vikings as right on their heels, and one slip up by the Cardinals could cost them the playoff spot.

In the AFC, it looks like the Jaguars have a pretty good chance at one wildcard while the other wildcard spot appears to be a tossup between the Browns and Titans which would result in a tiebreaker game if our projections hold true.

NFL Big Games for Week 14

2007-12-04T17:52:00.000-08:00

We guess it is no mystery that the contest between the Patriots and Steelers is the most important game of the week – at least for the Steelers. The Patriots have their season wrapped up and are just looking to keep their perfect veneer. On the other hand, the Steelers have yet to lock up their division and hold just a two-game lead over the Browns. A Pittsburgh win would almost secure the division title and keep them close on the heels of the Colts for the second, first-round bye in the playoffs. From a PossessionPoints.com view, this is a battle of two outstanding teams with the number offense in the Patriots matched up against the number defense in the Steelers. If Pittsburgh could avoid those damaging turnovers, they could give New England their third, close encounter with defeat in a row.

The next big game is the Bears vs. Redskins. Redskins will be at home for this matchup of two 5-7 teams that have a great deal on the line. It’s hard to believe that this is considered a big game, but there is a second wildcard in the NFC that is very much up for grabs and in reach of a team with a 5-7 record. From a PossessionPoints view, we kind of like the Redskins in this matchup. If you would like to know the rest of our matchups, see our subscription page at http://www.possessionpoints.com/.

The third big game on our list is the Colts vs. Ravens game in Baltimore. Will the Ravens be recharged from their near victory over the Patriots or will they still be so angry that they screw up this game? Hard to tell. However, this contest is important for the Colts because they hold a two-game lead in their division over the Jaguars but only a one-game lead over the Steelers for the second bye in the first-round of playoffs.

Finally, we have the battle of the Jersey Turnpike: The New York Giants visit the Eagles at the Linc in Philadelphia. The Giants hope to lock up their wildcard spot by moving to 9-4 while the Eagles who are currently 5-7, hope to hold on to playoff hopes and become 6-7. Right now in the NFC there are three teams with 6-6 records: the Vikings, Lions and Cardinals and five teams with 5-7 records: Eagles, Redskins, Bears and Panthers. All are hoping for a miracle and get the one remaining wildcard. The real miracle would be if the Giants fell this week to the Eagles and the next three weeks which would open a wildcard to one of these other nine teams. How mediocre can the NFC possibly be that losing records are still looking for a playoff dream? That is this season in the NFL.

For the record, PossessionPoints favors the Cardinals to emerge from the nine and get the last remaining wildcard spot, but the Vikings are right on their heels by our projections and would scoop it up if the Cardinals should stumble. If they both fail, it’s anyone’s guess who shows up for a playoff game.

Tell us who you think would be the wildcard of the NFC. Once again, if you go to PossessionPoints and sign up, you can see our projected standings by division.